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How Baidu Tracked the Largest Seasonal Migration of People On Earth
KentuckyFC writes During the Chinese New Year earlier this year, some 3.6 billion people traveled across China making it the largest seasonal migration on Earth. These kinds of mass movements have always been hard to study in detail. But the Chinese web services company Baidu has managed it using a mapping app that tracked the location of 200 million smartphone users during the New Year period. The latest analysis of this data shows just how vast this mass migration is. For example, over 2 million people left the Guandong province of China and returned just a few days later--that's equivalent to the entire population of Chicago upping sticks. The work shows how easy it is to track the movement of large numbers of people with current technology--assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way.
Not a long time ago, I was just a normal internet user that surfed various news sites like Sladshdot, reddit, or wsj.com. I read a story, perhaps clicked onto some links it contained, and I was mostly happy with my life.
Then, one day, I surfed Slashdot. It was one of those days you will remember for the rest of your life. So, as I surfed Sladshdot, the title of a story got my attention. I read the summary. The topic seemed interesting, so I decided to read further. I read:
Read on below for the rest what Bennett has to say.
Usually I don't read first line of a story which contains the user who has submitted it. On that day, I didn't neither. As I've only read that bottom line, I asked myself: who is this misterious Bennett? I decided to click onto the "Read the comments" link to read more of the story that was, as it seems, written by some Bennett. During reading, I was already impressed by the clear and detailed but still concise structure of the text. As I finished reading, I was convinced it was the best story I've ever read on Sladshdot, or any comparable news site. I asked myself: perhaps this misterious Bennett has contributed more frequently than just once?
To find that out, I went to Sladshdot's search bar and searched for "Bennett". I clicked the second entry, and it began with:
Frequent contributor Bennett Haselton writes
I searched for the "Read on" line, and I was happy when I found it. As it seemed, he was a frequent contributor. However the story was on a topic completely unrelated to the topic of my article. Would the other article still be as insightful as the first? And the other stories in the search result? Would they be also by Bennett? Or someone else? I decided first to be happy to have found such an insightful article, and decided to make a photograph of me, before I read the second story.
I still have that photograph of me and I can see the hope and the satisfaction in my eyes, the hope that the other stories are also written by this brilliant author called Bennett, and the satisfaction of having read such an insightful article. As I've read the first couple of stories by Bennett, I couldn't believe what my eyes saw: all the stories were as insightful or even more insightful than the original story I read. I asked myself whether the spectators in the Globe theatre would have felt the same way when they watched a piece by shakespeare: Witnessing history of writing. I realized Bennett is one of histories great writers.
As I've finished reading all contributions by Bennett Haselton on Sladshdot, I went back to the first Bennett story, and read them a second time. I sat three days straight, missing all social events during that span, only reading Bennett's stories, and reading them again and again. During that time my eyes opened to the fact that my whole life, I've known nothing. Bennett's stories explained every aspect of very complicated things in such detail, that I formed something in my mind. First, I couldn't describe it what it was, but years later I know that, for the first time of my life, I formed something called "opinion" on a topic. Previously, I've only adopted opinions from others, but Bennett's stories enable people to make their opinions for themselfes, to form them. With his stories, Bennett gives you the material to form your own opinion on your own. I know you will say that you can form your opinion on your own, and that you don't need Bennett for that. I
disagree with you. What you call opinion, is in reality just ideology you imitate from others. You don't form your opinions, you don't have them.
Every time Bennett writes a new story on Sladshdot, I take a free day and spend it reading the story
The work shows how easy it is to track the movement of large numbers of people with current technology--assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way.
Right..."willing"...let's go with that.
Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
The work shows how easy it is to track the movement of large numbers of people with current technology--assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way.
And the ones who aren't? Well, we'll track them, too! One way or another.
isn't that more than 1/2 of the world's population???
Google says that the entire population of China is 1.357 billion people. Did they all and another 2.243 billion tourists migrate across China?
From the Cornell page for the paper:
Comments: Rejected by Science after in-depth review.
As others have said, 3.6bn people can't be travelling. I guess they must be counting individual, substantial journeys, but they don't say, which is a bit rubbish. I noticed that this number was unsourced, which also seemed a bit rubbish.
How did triple the population of China migrate across China?
World population is about 7.1 Billion (give or take a few). How did HALF THE WORLD'S POPULATION travel across China around a small time period. I feel like they may need to check a few number and make a move a few decimals.
Given that 3.6 billion is almost three times the population of China I'm guessing they are using somewhat dodgy statistics either that or they are counting each journey made by the same person and that person makes multiple journeys.
They need to cross the river and evade the crocodiles. So regal. So majestic.
"assuming they are willing"
Is this a subtle attempt at comedy, a stunning level of naivety, or yet another Slashdot editors mistake?
We are talking about CHINA here, in what way, shape or form does a Chinese citizen have any say whatsoever in whether they are tracked and monitored?
How does the "willingness" of a Chinese citizen have any bearing on whether they are tracked or not?
Also a shit site
As others have said, 3.6bn people can't be travelling. I guess they must be counting individual, substantial journeys, but they don't say, which is a bit rubbish. I noticed that this number was unsourced, which also seemed a bit rubbish.
I was wondering how the Chinese were hiding all those billions of extra people.
"assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way" lol
There's only 1.357 billion Chinese, so did all of them move, and another 2.243 billion come there from outside of China, to travel across China? The article really doesn't explain where they're getting the numbers from, & I'm having a hard time believing that HALF of all humans went to Beijing for Chinese New Year. According to the article, Baidu's app was on only 200 million cell phones to be able to do this.
This is patently false to anyone with half a brain.
EDITORS: DO YOUR JOBS!
I know baidu for being presented here in Brazil as an antivirus, with TV commercials, when actually it really acts as a virus!! Every device here has baidu installed, 1 person may have 1 or 2 cell phones, a tablet and a laptop and there you have the count..
This article says it's 3.6 billion passenger trips. Over a 40-day period, that's a little more believable, but I wonder what is counted as a "passenger trip". Let's say I live in NYC, and I want to travel to Lincoln, Nebraska for the holiday. So, subway ride to the airport, that's a passenger trip. Flight to hub in Chicago, another passenger trip. Flight from Chicago to Omaha, another passenger trip. Then whatever means I use to get from Omaha to Lincoln, another passenger trip. Coming home, I do the same thing all in reverse. That's eight passenger trips for one person for the holiday.
So, you take the 3.6 billion passenger trips, and divide it by 4 or 6 or 8 or whatever you think is the average passenger trip per person. Then divide that over a 40 day period, and account for the difference in population, and maybe you get something like a multiple of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.
I dunno, I'm just throwing it out there as a possibility.
Proverbs 21:19
It's made by the Chinese gov, as if it wouldn't track everything you do. It's worst than google.
If you haven't seen the documentary Last Train Home about the struggles of being a seasonal worker in China and getting home to visit your family once a year, I highly recommend it. For anybody who thought the overcrowded dystopian future feared in the 1970's failed to occur, China is one place where it already did.
Can Slashdot at least try to tone down the retardation?
If you don't understand any of my sayings, come to me in private and I shall take you in my German mouth.
This paper has not been peer reviewed. Read with that in mind (peer review is academic currency).
(That said, it doesn't get much more prestigious than Science. It's merely too early to bring this to bear. Perhaps it will eventually get accepted, reviewed, and then published. Only at that point can it be considered good research.)
Use my userscript to add story images to Slashdot. There's no going back.
The article says: "over 2 million people left the Guandong province of China and returned just a few days later--that's equivalent to the entire population of Chicago upping sticks"
Sounds pretty major, right?
Well, let's see according to Wikipedia, the population of Guangdong province was 105,940,000 in 2012. So approx. 2% of the population traveled out of province for Chinese New Years. 2% doesn't sound that big compared to "the entire population of Chicago" eh? To put it into perspective, the population of California is approx 38 million, and for Thanksgiving long weekend in 2013, "Statewide, 4.46 million will drive to holiday destinations, and 533,000 will go by plane." according to the AAA. That's over 12% of the population traveling. Granted, not *everybody* left the state. If one just counts the ones the flew by plane, 1.4% of California's residents flew somewhere over Thanksgiving. 2% doesn't sound like that much now.
Honestly, after reading the news reports about the super crowded trains during Chinese New Years, I would have expected the number of people traveling out of Guandong to be *much* higher than 2%.
Ref: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...
The entire population of China is only 1.4 billion people.
Somehow someone extrapolated 3.6 billion from observing 200 million smartphones. Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me given that the entire population of China is less than 1.4 billion to start with.
blindly antisocialist = antisocial
Very good program