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How To Mathematically Predict Lightning Strikes

Posted by timothy on from the out-standing-in-his-field dept.

rossgneumann writes Soon, it's very possible that when you say something like "you have better odds of being struck by lightning," that won't necessarily mean it's all that rare. And there's a good chance that you'll be able to tell that person (roughly) what the odds of that happening are. Research published this week in Nature provides an equation that is reasonably accurate at mathematically predicting lightning strikes. From the article: "There's not a whole lot of noise in Romps's estimates: CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy] is something that can be predicted out fairly easily: "All [models] in our ensemble predict that [the United State's] mean CAPE will increase over the 21st century, with a mean increase of 11.2 percent per degree Celsius of global warming," he wrote. "Overall, the [models] predict a ~50 percent increase in the rate of lightning strikes in the United States over the 21st century."

3 of 41 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Is that like...? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    It's a troll because it has nothing to do with the above article and is merely to get people into a discussion about your favorite anti-topic.

  2. Re:Is that like...? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Predicting an increase in severe weather due to global warming (no, it hasn't happened)?

    Do you ignore the recent extreme temperature records on purpose, or what exactly do you consider "severe weather"?

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/18888-embarrassing-predictions-haunt-the-global-warming-industry

    I'm sorry, but anything that claims that global cooling has ever been a widely accepted thing is simply bullshit. Why, they published it in Newsweek! That's a respected scientific journal...oh wait, it isn't. OK, scratch that. It's bullshit after all.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  3. Re:Is that like...? by cirby · · Score: 1, Insightful

    An article about a study predicting increased lightning strikes due to global warming has nothing to do with all of the other (failed) studies predicting increased hazards due to global warming?

    "All [models] in our ensemble predict that [the United State's] mean CAPE will increase over the 21st century, with a mean increase of 11.2 percent per degree Celsius of global warming,"

    Do tell. How is this different?

    Or is there some sort of rule about how things can be mentioned in stories, but not mentioned in the comments here?