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MARS, Inc: We Are Running Out of Chocolate

Posted by timothy on from the there's-a-price-system-to-take-care-of-that dept.

schwit1 writes There's no easy way to say this: You're eating too much chocolate, all of you. And it's getting so out of hand that the world could be headed towards a potentially disastrous (if you love chocolate) scenario if it doesn't stop. ... Chocolate deficits, whereby farmers produce less cocoa than the world eats, are becoming the norm. Already, we are in the midst of what could be the longest streak of consecutive chocolate deficits in more than 50 years. It also looks like deficits aren't just carrying over from year-to-year—the industry expects them to grow. Last year, the world ate roughly 70,000 metric tons more cocoa than it produced. By 2020, the two chocolate-makers warn that that number could swell to 1 million metric tons, a more than 14-fold increase; by 2030, they think the deficit could reach 2 million metric tons.

36 of 323 comments (clear)

  1. Good news! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Chocolate rations have been increased to 20 grams!

    1. Re:Good news! by Scarletdown · · Score: 3, Funny

      I could have sworn it was being reduced to 20 grams...

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    2. Re:Good news! by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Funny

      I could have sworn it was being reduced to 20 grams...

      Why do they even need chocolate on Mars? The only thing there so far is robots. I understand that we should pre-position supplies before sending colonists, but chocolate is not exactly a mission priority.

    3. Re:Good news! by sconeu · · Score: 3, Insightful

      MARS NEEDS CHOCOLATE!!!!!!

      And once they have that, it will also solve that pesky "Mars Needs Women" problem!

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
  2. Panic! by mean+pun · · Score: 5, Funny

    Forget Ebola, forget IS, forget running out of IPv4 addresses, finally a real reason to panic.

    So go ahead, make the most of it!

    1. Re:Panic! by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Funny

      Now this is serious. Yeah, chocolate is important but at least it isn't a life sustaining drug. Run out of coffee and it will make World War Z look like a Girl Scout Camporee.

      I'm stockpiling and hiding in my bunker. Seeeee yoooouuuuu alllll aa biitttt llllaaaatttererrr.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  3. That's what she said! by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 5, Funny

    "There's no easy way to say this: You're eating too much chocolate, all of you."

    My dentist has been telling me this for years. So has my wife. Do you think they're seeing each other?

    1. Re:That's what she said! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      I bet the dentist is drilling your wife.

  4. This is what the Free Market is for by preaction · · Score: 5, Informative

    Chocolate prices rise, people have larger incentive to grow cacao. I'm failing to see what the issue here is.

    1. Re:This is what the Free Market is for by dpilot · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm guessing that the problem here is that there can either be executive salaries for chocolate (and coffee) companies in the US, or there can be adequate revenue for sustainable chocolate (and coffee) agriculture outside the US.

      Of course we know which is more important.

      --
      The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
    2. Re:This is what the Free Market is for by dunkelfalke · · Score: 3, Insightful

      More like people have larger incentives to adulterate chocolate. This is how free market usually works.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    3. Re:This is what the Free Market is for by pollarda · · Score: 4, Informative

      I'm in the chocolate industry (see above) and from what I've heard through my contacts is that the plantations in the Ivory Coast are fairly empty as the workers are all afraid to come to work. This will affect prices somewhat though not too drastically as you can remember that the ports were shut down for most of a harvest year in the Ivory Coast a few years ago. The bigger problem is that this is a long term problem where the farmers are not getting paid enough to make cocoa a viable way to make a living. (Many cocoa farmers have cocoa as one of several crops that they grow or jobs that they have for this reason.)

  5. Cocoa futures by mbone · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's probably worth mentioning here that Mars, Inc. is one of the big players in the Cocoa futures market. This is not investment advice, but if you invest in cocoa futures based on this article, you would be making a bet based on a story from someone who hopes to make money off of you.

    1. Re:Cocoa futures by itzly · · Score: 4, Interesting

      They are a big player, because they need a lot of chocolate, and futures help to manage their acquisition prices. Of course, they could try to play with the market, but they'll risk alienating their chocolate eating customers, so it's not clear that this would be in their advantage.

    2. Re:Cocoa futures by zippthorne · · Score: 4, Interesting

      By dipping into the cocoa reserves, built up from years when it was the opposite.

      The real question is this:

      by 2030, they think the deficit could reach 2 million metric tons.

      Just how deep are the cocoa reserves?

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  6. Trader Joe's Could Help by Scarletdown · · Score: 4, Funny

    They could alleviate some of this problem by contacting the people who run Trader Joe's. They have this one dark chocolate bar (can't recall the name of it) that is so nasty and bitter, that it is inedible completely (unless you dip it in honey, then it is barely tolerable). It is worse than baking chocolate and is actually sold as if it is intended to be eaten like a normal bar of chocolate. If they just full stop quit producing that travesty, perhaps that could free up chocolate resources for other uses for perhaps another year or so.

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  7. Re: How are we covering the shortfall/defecit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Simple, the Federal Reserve just prints more chocolate.

    Cocoatative Easing they call it.

  8. Correction not 2000$ but 2800$ per tonnes by aepervius · · Score: 3, Informative

    In fact look here : http://www.unctad.info/upload/... we are still at lower price than 1978, way lower in constant dollar, although production is increasing.

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  9. Re:Deficit eating by MacTO · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The deficit they're talking about is around 1% to 2% of the annual production. Assuming that you sell the reserves prior to selling the new crops, and put the unsold new crops in reserve, the reserves could last for decades with none of the stock being over a year old.

    Of course that is a highly simplified view, but it does allow for multi-year deficits without actually running out of cocoa. Of course a low reserve also means that there could be serious problems if the yields are particularly bad one year. (But at least it's just cocoa. A staple crop would be an entirely different issue.)

  10. The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I'm in the chocolate industry and own a small high end chocolate company in Utah where we make all of our chocolate from scratch (ie beans) and have been at the forefront of the American craft chocolate movement and are a founding member of the Craft Chocolate Makers of America . From what I've seen is that the big issue is that the farmers are not getting paid nearly enough. Cocoa has been a great trade good because if you keep it dry and the bugs out it will last for years. This is great for remote impoverished areas because the farmers can save their cocoa and send it out on the next mule train.

    Cocoa is very labor intensive way more than you can reasonably expect and today these remote communities have roads to them. Farmers can now grow bananas, pineapples, passion fruit etc for a lot less labor and have it at port in just a few days. For this reason many cocoa farmers are cutting down their trees and replacing them with crops that are less labor intensive. Additionally the youth are looking to jobs in oil (such as in Trinidad) or in the cities.

    What foods are similar to cocoa in terms of labor? Truffles, saffron, vanilla, good cheeses etc. all of which are very expensive comparatively. Nobody faults these for not being $3/lb or less

    What's the solution? To pay the farmers more. Right now, Cocoa sells for approx $2800/ton and in my opinion it should be closer to $10,000 - $20,000 / ton. This means that a chocolate bar would sell for $6-10 depending on packaging. (We currently sell chocolate we make from cocoa from Chuao Venezuela where we pay $5.50/lb for the cocoa where the London market was around $1.40/lb so we paid the farmers four times the market rate.)

    Don't be wooed by so called "fair trade" certification. When I see that, I know the farmers just got screwed. Why? With Fair trade the farmers get a premium of $150-$200/ton -- a price increase of 5%. On the other hand, the FT organization charges the farmers between $2500 - $10000/year for the certification and in personal experience I've only seen it at $10,000 / year. At the same time they charge $0.10/lb ($220/ton) to whoever imports it for it to maintain its FT certification and another $0.10/lb for thr use of the logos and trademarks. So FT gets $440/ton and the farmers get $200. Not so fair. Plus don't forget the farmers certification and of course the companies need to be certified too. Oh yea. The inspectors are $750/day plus travel.

    So what to do? Buy good chocolate. A bar should be anywhere from $5-$15. You can't make really good chocolate without using great cocoa. You can't get great cocoa without paying a significant premium to the farmers -- often 2-4 times the NY or London terminal price. So you know they are paid well. You simply can't have a $1-2 chocolate bar after if has been run though the supply chain (stores, distributors, the factory, various cocoa brokers, etc.) and know the farmers were paid well no matter the certification.

    1. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I own a small high end chocolate company, and I think chocolate should be more expensive.

      Didn't see THAT one coming a mile away. Nope. Nosiree...

    2. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by Dr.Dubious+DDQ · · Score: 5, Funny
      "How much do you think a standard Hershey Bar[...]"

      What does that have to do with anything? We're talking about CHOCOLATE.

      (Somebody was bound to post that, it might as well be me...)

      /(adjusts monocle)

      --
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    3. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I and a number of other small chocolate makers have looked at what cocoa _should_ cost. Cocoa beans IMHO should cost at least double if not three to four times what they currently do.

      Now with a Hershey's Bar, a good portion of the bar is sugar and milk. Because of this, there is very little "cocoa" (the real part of chocolate in chocolate) in a Hershey's chocolate bar. This was the big innovation that Milton Hershey made. Chocolate was too expensive and was the domain of the rich and so he in some ways invented the technique of watering it down with immense quantities of sugar and milk. If I remember right, a Hershey's bar is only 15% cocoa (not counting the cocoa butter which is added to reduce the viscosity of the added milk and sugar. I don't know what Hershey's pays for these ingredients but I can get sugar for $0.50-$0.60/lb offsets the price significantly for a bar like Hershey's since there is so much of it. But I'd bet to get the prices right you'd probably be needing to have a Hershey's bar cost at least 2-3 times what they currently do. I'd have to really dig into the numbers closely to really make a more accurate stab at it.

      Along the line of your question though, Hershey's buys some of the worst quality cocoa (of which there is a lot of) and pays prices that are close to rock bottom. So they are paying around $1.30/lb right now. There is a 20-25% loss after you remove the shell and moisture evaporation during roasting. I've tasted the grade of cocoa that they buy and it is spitting bad (ie, you'll spit it out almost immediately. Better qualities of cocoa taste significantly better. So I hope this helps a bit.

    4. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 5, Informative

      Keep in mind that a 3 Musketeers bar is mostly sugar. There isn't much chocolate in it at all. There is just a thin shell of chocolate on the outside (predominately). That chocolate is very sweet. I'd bet it contains no more than 20-30% cocoa. (Our milk chocolate is 35% cocoa which is higher than most.) Most of the rest is sugar. (There is some cocoa butter which sells now for about $4.70/lb as the market is up for cocoa butter right now -- conversely to powder which is down as they move inversely to each other for reasons I've never quite understood.)

      This is one thing we have a hard time communicating to chefs. They don't always understand that very good quality chocolate is a lot more affordable than they think. The price per pound is higher -- sometimes a lot higher. At the same time, there often is very little chocolate in the chocolate dessert once you've added flour, eggs, milk, cream, sugar, etc. So they can improve the quality of their dessert --- sometimes significantly -- without as much added price as you'd normally think since the chocolate is diluted by so many other ingredients.

      Part of the problem is that there is a mindset that cocoa and chocolate are commodities in the same way that flour and sugar are rather than heavily labor intensive products that should be compared more closely to truffles, vanilla, fine cheeses, etc.all of which are typically carefully handcrafted products in much the same way that cocoa is.

      About the locally produced bar -- As I said, you can't make good quality chocolate without good quality cocoa. You can't get good quality cocoa without paying the farmers significantly more. Hence you can not have a "cheap" high quality chocolate where the farmers were paid well. This doesn't always mean that an expensive bar is made with chocolate where the farmers were paid fairly for their cocoa. We all can think of products that were way overpriced for crap. So in general you can have overly priced bad quality chocolate but you can't have under priced good quality chocolate simply because good quality beans are expensive. Pay attention to the quality --- not the price. The price though will follow the quality.

    5. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by Imbrondir · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Price of any stock will go up when the demand is higher than the supply. And if supplier business is truly not currently economically viable, less fields will be used for cocoa, supply will go down, and price will go up again. No need to talk about what one ethically "should" pay for it.

    6. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 5, Informative

      I agree. Chocolate was once the domain of the rich and while Milton Hershey commoditized it by adding immense amounts of sugar and milk, I feel convinced it will some day become a specialty product once again that is more of a rare treat rather than the everyday snack.

      Here is how it works in terms of labor:
      The cocoa trees are highly disease susceptible so there is a lot more work that goes into keeping your cocoa plantation in good shape than say apples or oranges. There is a production of about 1MT / acre of cocoa per year so the land doesn't produce very much per acre as you might expect. Not all the cocoa comes into ripeness at the same time (unlike apples, oranges, etc.) so the farmer has to walk the plantation every few days harvesting each cocoa pod by hand one at a time as each pod becomes ripe. Each cocoa pod equates to about one chocolate bar and must be hand cut from the tree (not picked). The pods are then taken to a central area where they are split by hand and the beans removed and the central stalk taken out again all by hand. The beans are then put into wooden fermentation boxes (3 foot square) where they are fermented typically 5-7 days depending on variety. Each day the beans must be taken out of the boxes, clumps broken up and\ turned over, and then put back in so that they ferment rather than rot. Finally, they must be dried which takes another 5-7 days where they are put out in the sun in the morning and brought back in when it looks like it might rain or in the evening. Some farmers turn the beans every hour. The final price? $1.30/lb Let's look at pecans. The trees are a lot easier to grow, very disease resistant (comparatively) and they are harvested by a vehicle driving up to the tree, grabbing it and shaking it until all the pecans fall out and then they go to the next tree. The price? $4.50/lb if I buy it 1,000/lbs at a time.

      Given the labor economics, the amount of cocoa will reduce until the price of the chocolate goes up enough to support higher prices for the farmers. This will happen whether we like it or not. This will also continue to happen as the 3rd world countries industrialize and less labor intensive forms of jobs are available such as working oil fields, mines, and other blue collar and white collar jobs in the various cities.

    7. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 5, Informative

      Probably the best widely available chocolate would be Guittard. Guittard is run by Gary Guittard and it was started by his great grandfather in San Francisco during the gold rush. I'm personally good friends with Gary and I know where they buy their beans (not all of them but enough so that I have a good sense as to what is paid and we buy from some of the same farmers.) Guittard buys some very premium cocoas (and some lower grade too.) For their premium cocoas, they pay premium prices. Gary (along with myself) are founding members of Direct Cacao an organization that was set up to promote the direct trade of cocoa with the farmers to help ensure that farmers get paid enough to keep cocoa a viable crop and to help keep quality up.

      Lindt actually owns Ghiraldelli which is funny. When you buy San Francisco Chocolate, you are actually buying swiss. I'm familiar where they get some of their beans and their beans generally aren't particularly good quality. Their Madagascar chocolate is made with some of the lowest quality cocoas from Madagascar for example -- they couldn't buy their cocoa from the better growers for example Akkeson's plantation where we, Valrhona, and many of the europoean manufacturers buy their cocoa from.

      Chocolate brands to look out for would be IMHO: Michel Cluizel, Pralus, Amedei, Domori, Valrhona (though they don't us as good cocoa as they used to). In the US, I'd look at companies such as Guittard (the big one) and smaller ones such as Amano, Theo, Patric, Rogue, Dandelion, Askinosie, Taza, Ritual, Dick Taylor, Fresco, Patomic, etc. There is a new movement in the US for craft chocolate making much in the same way the beer industry went a few years ago. These companies (and others) are at the forefront and many of their owners truly care about what they are doing and the farmers they work with. Among many of these companies is the desire to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. I've been immensely proud to hear how the owners all want to pay the farmers more. Gary Guittard in one of our Direct Cacao meetings got up and specifically said: "We all need to pay even more to the farmers." I was so proud to be part of a movement where this was being said. The biggest hurdle is to educate the public so that chocolate isn't seen as just another commodity so that the public is willing to pay enough that we can pass that along to the farmers as we would like.

    8. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by Registered+Coward+v2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So what to do? Buy good chocolate. A bar should be anywhere from $5-$15. You can't make really good chocolate without using great cocoa. You can't get great cocoa without paying a significant premium to the farmers -- often 2-4 times the NY or London terminal price. So you know they are paid well. You simply can't have a $1-2 chocolate bar after if has been run though the supply chain (stores, distributors, the factory, various cocoa brokers, etc.) and know the farmers were paid well no matter the certification.

      Correct. The problem is not that there is a coach shortage but that there is a shortage of cheap cocoa. High end producers who want to make good chocolate pay a premium and get what they need. Mars, which doesn't really produce chocolate but a brown substance to cover filings, can't.

      --
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    9. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 5, Informative

      There isn't much monopoly that I've ever seen. There are some huge chocolate traders and companies out there. Many have the resources to create hedges so that the market doesn't affect them in the same way it does smaller producers. However, the chocolate business is pretty competitive. There are many brokers and in country cocoa traders. If one cocoa trader isn't paying the farmers as much as another, the farmers will switch. The farmers are typically poor so they don't feel as tied to loyalty as they might otherwise and they follow the price paid. The bigger problem is simply that Hershey's (as an example) has a low-end chocolate bar that they have to run all the ingredients and final products through the supply chain all to have a bar that is $1.00 (or so --- I don't keep track of their price as I don't eat the stuff) by the time it reaches the final customer. This means that they can only offer a price so high to make the numbers work.

      So it is about educating the customer so that they will pay more. We (as a company) try to help educate the farmers and help them increase the quality of their cocoa. (Most of the world's cocoa is amazingly poor quality). If the farmers increase the quality of their cocoa, they can charge more. Hopefully, we will get to buy it when they do improve the quality. With good quality cocoa, the farmers can always charge less if they choose or if they have to. With poor quality cocoa, they can never charge more. Quality provides options for the farmers and in my experience really helps improve the self image of the farmers which is an amazing thing to see.

    10. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 3, Informative

      My focus as a chocolate maker is about quality. If you want to produce a quality product (as opposed to a low priced product), you have to be willing to pay what it takes to get the ingredients, materials, and skills that it takes to get it to all happen. Not everything about being a capitalist is about paying the very least -- it is about paying what it takes to get what you want. If you overpay, you are out of business. If you underpay, you won't get what you need and your product will probably suck one or more ways. That is just how the world works.

    11. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by pollarda · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, part of that has to do with the fact that Hershey's doesn't taste particularly good. I wouldn't pay $2-3 for it either. I agree with the other response using the McDonald's burger analogy. At the same time, there is certainly room in the market for a $6-$10 burger. Yes, they don't sell in the same volume as McDonalds but the customer gets a whole lot more, it tastes better, is better for you, and the ingredients are typically a lot better quality and probably sourced from farmers who care a lot more about what they are doing. If Hershey's tasted better, it would probably be worth the additional few $$$.

    12. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by ArcadeMan · · Score: 4, Funny

      There's only four ingredients in a 3 Musketeers bar:
      - Chocolate
      - Athos
      - Porthos
      - Aramis

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    13. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by w_dragon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'd say chocolate is more like coffee. There are a few snobs who will happily pay incredible prices for what they're told is the best quality, a lot of people who want something that tastes right, and the majority that have never tasted it without drowning it in milk and sugar.

    14. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by Sabriel · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Maybe you were just trying for a Funny, but that just makes it even more depressing that someone modded you Insightful.

      Because GP, as a chocolate maker, was saying that _cocoa_ should be more expensive. Does that mean the average price of chocolate would rise? Yes. Does that mean the GP's wholesale and retail price would rise? Maybe, maybe not, because they're already paying the farmers well above the typical rates.

      Regardless; when one of the "middlemen" between you and the farmers, tells you that the farmers are getting stiffed by the global system that supposedly exists to protect those farmers, you should pay more attention.

    15. Re:The Fix: Buy good Chocolate! by Skylinux · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Everyone who voted insightful REALLY needs to go to one of those companies and try good chocolate.
      I don't each much chocolate so I only but the HQ stuff now. Milka, Mars or even Ritter - they suck compared to a good, higher coca content chocolate.
      I get mine from a shop selling coffee because just a chocolate, average coffee tastes .... less then average.

      You only live once. Stop stuffing low quality shit into your mouth!

      --
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  11. Chocolate alternative by TheRhinoplast · · Score: 3, Funny

    Tomorrow: Mars announces Soylent Brown