Rooftop Solar Could Reach Price Parity In the US By 2016

Lucas123 writes: The cost of rooftop solar-powered electricity will be on par with prices of coal-powered energy and other conventional sources in all 50 U.S. states in just two years, a leap from today where PV energy has price parity in only 10 states, according to Deutsche Bank's leading solar industry analyst. The sharp decline in solar energy costs is the result of increased economies of scale leading to cheaper photovoltaic panels, new leasing models and declining installation costs, Deutsche Bank's Vishal Shah stated in a recent report. The cost of solar-generated electricity in the top 10 states for capacity ranges from 11-15 cents per kilowatt hour (c/kWh), compared to the retail electricity price of 11-37 c/kWh. Amit Ronen, a former Congressional staffer behind legislation that created an investment tax credit for solar installations, said one of the only impediments to decreasing solar electricity prices are fees proposed by utilities on customers who install solar and take advantage of net metering, or the ability to sell excess power back to utilities.

Comments

Tax credits end in 2016

[grimJester]

There's a 30% tax credit expiring in 2016. Not sure what you mean about an "idea" and being "scalable"; it's just a bank projecting in what areas photovoltaics will be worthwhile when. After 2016, you'll presumably still have new installations worthwhile in the south of the country and the area creeping northwards as prices continue going down.

Re:My two cents...

[bored_engineer]

I think it'd be fine for utilities to charge something nominal for the privilege of solar.

I couldn't agree more. Where I live, I pay a monthly fee simply to be connected to the grid, whether I use any electricity or not. I assume that if micro-generation becomes common that the co-op must increase this fee. I will happily pay an increased fee to have the night-time and winter generation that are impossible with solar.

Personally, if I could afford solar panels, I'd be interested in what uses it could provide during power outages combined with a battery backup for certain breakers/circuits (fridge, lights, and maybe one for TV watching).

A transfer switch, combined with a good inverter (or a pair, depending on your load) can provide this today. (The transfer switch is mandatory for any solar install, anyway, so as to keep utility workers safe.) In fact, this has been possible for at least 15 years. In fact, a good inverter can act as the charge controller for your batteries, as well as manage a back-up generator to keep the batteries charged during an extended outage. If you want a good system that provides backup power, I would talk to somebody about designing it for you, rather than trying to cobble it together yourself.

Re:Hail resistant?

[dgatwood]

Are this things hail resistant? Lower prices are interesting only if won't be smashed by some pieces of ice falling from the sky

Generally speaking, yes. Anything complying with international standards is required to handle a 1 inch chunk of hail at terminal velocity (50 MPH). Many panels are rated up to 4x that, for added robustness, but I doubt those are the cheap ones. :-)

cost/price per kW hour comparison is nonsense

[ggpauly]

A solar installation is an investment. The proper analysis is return on investment. Current actual price before credits and rebates for a 4kW rooftop (16 panels, abt 25 m^2), installed, is about $16,000. This includes a substantial profit for the installer -- it should be available for less in a competitive market. There's a 30% US federal tax rebate, and here in North Carolina a 35% state tax rebate and a ~$1300 utility kickback. Assuming your tax situation allows you to take advantage of the credits, the net cost is about $6000. This will completely offset an annual electric bill of about $2000 - $2500. This is about 35% return on investment. Amortizing the net cost over a lifetime of 15-20 years for various components gives about 30% per year return. This return is tax free. This is an astoundingly good return. Berkshire Hathaway's total return over 49 years is 20% annually.

In other jurisdictions without the state tax rebate and utility kickback the tax-free return is 10 to 15%. Much better than the long-term return of any mutual fund.

Without any direct incentives the return is about 6%, tax free, very safe. CDs are currently about 1%.

Comparing the actual costs is the fair comparison. Apparently TFA omitted the actual government incentives on solar, while implicitly including them in the per kWh utility figures.

Rooftop solar has other benefits as well. Inverters are available that provide power during grid failure (during sunshine), and there are external benefits in replacing dirty coal or dirtier nuke power and slightly reducing the size and power of a monopoly corporation.

Re:cost/price per kW hour comparison is nonsense

[cbhacking]

Speaking as somebody who has spent year living on a sailboat where electricity was entirely provided by solar:

Even within a few miles of the equator, at local noon, a good rain squall will drop PV production to under 20% of its normal amount at that time. Later (or earlier) in the day it can easily drop all the way to effective zero - the charge controller eats a bit - until the sky clears. Of course, on the tropical ocean, "until the sky clears" is usually not that long. We (well, "they" now; my parents still live aboard but I do not) can run for a couple days (if fully charged) just living off the battery bank, though that would drop its charge lower than we like to let it go. On a really rainy day we might only get about 1/4 the normal production; if that keeps up for three days or so we'll run the engine for an hour to juice the batteries up.

As for winter, the biggest problem is not the angle of the sun (that is *a* problem, even if you tilt the panels, because of atmospheric losses... but it's not a huge problem) but instead is the length of the day. You might get 80% of summer noon on a sunny winter noon in some places (I doubt it would be true up here in the Pacific Northwet, and no, that's not a typo), but the boat has never been anywhere that *has* a "winter" so I can't speak from experience. However, on an average tropical Caribbean day, I measured meaningful power from 7:30 AM to 5:30 PM (10 hours total), with peak output around 1PM. That's only ten hours of electricity generation, and the vast majority of it occurred between 9:30 AM and 4 PM, for a period of only 6.5 hours (call it 2/3 of the day) where the panels produced more than 50% of their typical mid-day maximum. In Seattle in the middle of winter, we don't even get close to 10 hours of daylight; I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get more than 6.5 hours of usable light at all. So, 2/3 as much time, multiply by 4/5 for lost brightness even at midday, and you're looking at barely over half the power per day in winter that you get from peak summer brightness. Take into account the fact that tropical days are shorter than summer days, and it looks even worse for a comparison of winter vs. summer.

Solar power terminology

[Firethorn]

Charging a battery off of AC? Surely you mean RECTIFIER.

Nope, he said inverter, he was talking about a intelligent hybrid inverter like this Outback one.

The trick is that while it's called in inverter, that's only one of the things it does. Not only can it feed solar power to the grid, it can operate your home off of batteries, and if that isn't enough it can signal a generator to turn on(and off) as needs and power supply(solar AND grid) varies.

Won't happen if the utillities get their way

[jonwil]

Many utilities in the US are fighting rooftop solar through various means. The south-eastern states in particular are the worst for this.

Utilities are getting laws passed banning the "solar lease scheme" so popular in other parts of the US. And getting laws passed banning off-grid solar installs. And not providing net metering (either "you get paid for your excess electricity" or the "electricity you feed into the grid offsets what you use when the sun isn't shining but you wont get any money if you produce more than you use" model). And doing everything they can to push electricity generated from dirty black coal or nuclear reactors built to outdated 50s era designs instead of clean green energy.

PERMITS ! everybody forgets permits!

[bussdriver]

Many places in the USA have corrupted permit schemes. You don't pay a permit for an expert to verify your changes and protect the public-- you pay a % based upon the cost of the renovation. It is a home change TAX under another name and that is why you need permits for the most basic stupid things and why inspectors ignore checking most of the BS stuff; plus they are running around justifying the tax checking things that do not need it or enforcing the stupid rules (along with the good ones.)

I just got finished paying a 15% permit tax on top of the 7.5% sales tax for changes I made which were not inspected other than asking what the general plan was. On a huge solar installation that would be crazy just to have them make sure a few wires were connected properly.

Extrapolation story

[Tablizer]

About 10 years ago I studied a graph of the cost of solar versus conventional energy over time, extrapolated out, and saw them crossing in roughly 10 years. So, I invested in solar companies thinking they are going to take over conventional energy.

I got the crossing part right. What I got wrong is that those were domestic companies. Chinese companies generally have beaten domestic companies such that my stocks languished.

Predicting the future is not good enough; you have to predict the location also. Warren Buffet, I am not.

Re:They WILL FIght Back

[Rei]

Actually, the statistics are precisely opposite. The lower the turbine and the higher the RPM, the more birds it kills, while the higher the turbine and the lower the RPM (aka, the wider the blade radius), the fewer birds it kills. Also, tower design plays a major role. Those truss-style towers popular with small-scale turbines are the worst, as birds see them as potential perches / roosts.

The worst wind farm in the US for bird deaths by far is Altamont Pass, especially their older turbines, which look like this. They're pretty much a bird cuisinart, they kill thousands of raptors every year and have had a significant impact on California's bird of prey population, while most wind farms have an irrelevant impact on bird populations.