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Australia Elaborates On a New Drift Model To Find MH370

hcs_$reboot writes Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared on Saturday, 8 March 2014, while flying from Malaysia to Beijing with 239 people on board. And 8 months later, after millions of dollars invested in a gigantic search operation, there is still no sign of the aircraft. Now, Australia is developing a new model to predict where the debris of the missing MH370 could wash up. Authorities had initially predicted that the plane's wreckage could drift and come ashore on Indonesia's West Sumatra island after about 4 months of Flight MH370's disappearance. "We are currently working... to see if we can get an updated drift model for a much wider area where there might be possibilities of debris washing ashore," search co-ordinator Peter Foley told reporters in Perth.

25 of 154 comments (clear)

  1. Weaksauce by korbulon · · Score: 2, Interesting

    A story about a model under development which may or may not lead ... to something? You call this news?

    Here's an idea: next time something this "newsworthy" comes up, don't post it!

    1. Re: Weaksauce by sir_eccles · · Score: 2

      Given huge numbers of mothballed aircraft sitting in the desert in AZ why do you need a grand conspiracy to use a commercial airliner full of people?

  2. Re:Obsession by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    One crashed within our search and rescue zone, the other had 27 of our citizens on board. But hey, believe what you want, shame its clearly wrong.

  3. Re:Obsession by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Wow. Just wow.

    How dare the Australian government search for a plane thought to have crashed in our territorial waters.

    How dare the Australian government take "extra care" when a plane carrying 25 of our citizens gets shot out of the sky with a missile.

    Whatever balance it is you think you're aiming for, go fuck yourself with it.

  4. Re:Looking for Answers in the Debris by dbIII · · Score: 2

    Not as such. The main contractors are a private company that can make more money looking for oil, however they are stuck with this gig for a while.

  5. Re:Obsession by JWSmythe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    They want closure. They're not likely to get it soon though.

    They may not even be looking for floating debris. If the pilot was still in control, he may have made a controlled landing. Like the landing on the Hudson. So it may be a intact aircraft at the bottom of the ocean.

    It's doubtful that they'd make a landing like that in open seas, but it's (remotely) possible.

    But they are really looking for a really small needle in a fucking huge wet moving haystack.

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  6. Re:beyond the realm of plausibility by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    It's not hard to disappear if you turn off your transponder and then fly out of primary radar range.

  7. Re:Obsession by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We want to know what happened so that we can prevent it happening again.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  8. Re:beyond the realm of plausibility by ledow · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Nobody spotted several passenger jets veering off course and crashing / smashing into towers until it was too late. And they weren't even trying to hide. And that was over heavily-monitored US airspace.

    The world is bigger than you think and the kind of idiots that go into the Australian outback with no water, or onto the high seas because they've cruised around the Med on a jetksi are exactly the kind of people that don't realise the scale of the problem.

    You're looking for a needle that had zero communication and was over international waters for hours before anyone noticed, that moves at several hundred miles per hour, through international airspace where it's not tracked until it comes in range of a nation state, in a haystack that's basically bottomless without the latest technology, which is still mostly unexplored, which moves and shifts and covering areas more vast than some entire continents. It's quite possible we've actually scanned right over the top of the crash site and not even known.

    Conspiracy theories are fun, but sadly usually destroyed by reality. The "every nation is watching everything everywhere" mantra is precisely what you're led to believe so you feel "safe" - strangely conspiracy theorists are the first ones to jump on and believe such things (along with the "acres of datacentres listening to every call" junk) and then want to claim the government is incompetent and left gaping holes in their plans in the next breath.

    Fact is, once a plane leaves airspace and the immediate neighbourhood, nobody cares. Military systems are looking for entirely different things to air traffic control. And planes crash and change course all the time. We lose ships all the time too - especially if they've been hijacked by pirates.

    The only thing mysterious is the exact details of why it went, not why it veered off course or can't be found now.

  9. Re:Obsession by QuasiSteve · · Score: 2

    I understand you're not the same person who complained about a story no longer being in the news, but I guess that just goes to show that for some people there can never be enough coverage, and for others there can never be too little.

    If you want to talk media obsession, though... at least MH370 was still this year and was a whole plane lost under weird circumstances - and not a child abducted while her well-off parents were out partying 7 years ago that still has stories running every other week, or a president that was shot 51 years ago that has complete TV specials made practically every year.

  10. Re:Obsession by JWSmythe · · Score: 2

    Don't misunderstand me, I agree. There should be continued search efforts, funded by the airline that lost it. No government is responsible for the loss of those lives. They aren't responsible for notifying the families of the passengers. It is totally up to Malaysia airlines to fund the continued search. Some financial backing can come from governments that represent the passengers, but it shouldn't be a continuing national effort.

    As someone else mentioned, Australia is looking for 239 people, while more than that die domestically every day. Even his perception is wrong. There were 6 citizens of Australia on that flight. By passenger count, China should have the largest interest, with 152 citizens lost. As the airline is based in Malaysia, they could be financially responsible for the continuing search.

    I believe it's to the point where it's "lost", and until further evidence shows up (washes ashore), it can safely be left marked as in the "lost at sea". That does happen sometimes. Searching could continue when there is new reliable evidence. Otherwise at this time it is a waste of manpower and resources.

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  11. Re:Obsession by 0123456 · · Score: 2

    What makes these two planes so special that they get money while the government cuts funding to our health system?

    Total cost of the MH370 crash, including compensation and the loss of the aircraft, is likely to hit a billion dollars. Finding out what happened is well worth a few hundred million, if it could prevent the same thing happening again.

    Locating it will take a certain amount of luck, as the wreckage could be in a spot that's hard to see on sonar, but it's almost certainly somewhere in the current search area.

  12. Search expanding oceanographic knowledge by wired_parrot · · Score: 4, Insightful

    While they may never find what happened to MH370, the search for it is leading to detailed mapping of an area of the ocean floor that was little explored. And now we're getting better mathematical models of the ocean currents. So while I know there's been a lot of criticism of continuing what seems like a fruitless search, the money isn't being wasted.

    We may never find what happened to that aircraft, but we will have expanded our oceanographic knowledge of that area immensely.

  13. Re:beyond the realm of plausibility by lgw · · Score: 4, Funny

    strangely conspiracy theorists are the first ones to jump on and believe such things (along with the "acres of datacentres listening to every call" junk)

    Hey, welcome back to civilization, how did your 2 years without the internet go? While you were away, you missed some news (it was everywhere): turns out the US government was actually recording every voice call in a datacenter somewhere, and a lot more too! I know; crazy, huh? The truth was actually more extreme than the conspiracy theorists feared.

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  14. Re:beyond the realm of plausibility by 0123456 · · Score: 2

    We do know where our jets are. So long as they tell us.

    In this case, it wasn't telling us. You can't ensure it tells us unless you build in hardware that can't be turned off, and then you find the next airliner loss is caused by an electrical fire in the thing you just added that can't be turned off.

    MH370 had numerous ways to tell us where it went. But none of them were working, either because someone turned them off, or some electrical failure shut them down.

  15. Re:Obsession by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Even if they managed to find the wreckage and black boxes, they will yield little or no data. The is very different from the Air France crash.

    We don't know that.

    Even if there's nothing in the black boxes, the positions of circuit breakers may tell us how the electronics was turned off and then turned back on. A big hole in the fuselage near the cockpit would tell us that there was a fire on board, similar to the previous 777 fire. The positions of passengers and crew would tell us whether someone hijacked the plane, and whether anyone knew about it. Personal phones and tablets may contain messages from people on board.

    If we can find it from a few satellite pings, we can probably figure out what happened from whatever we recover.

  16. Re:beyond the realm of plausibility by lgw · · Score: 3, Insightful

    no, dumbledork. There's not that much tape production.

    Citation fucking provided

    "This is voice, not metadata." "In the initial deployment, collection systems are recording "every single" conversation nationwide."

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  17. Re:beyond the realm of plausibility by drinkypoo · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So you're going to launch satellites which can find every airliner in the sky with IR over the entire world? Just in case one disappears again?

    Since we started launching satellites whose intent was to find military jets in the sky with IR over the entire world in the 1970s, I should think that it is not too much to ask that by 2014 we should have advanced the technology and built out the hardware to the point where we could in fact do that.

    And note that underwing engines are probably going to make IR detection particularly hard as it will block a direct view of the exhaust.

    No doubt. Perhaps there is a superior means which could be used today, although IR is still pretty good for this sort of job and the planes are still big IR sources. Our sensing and data processing technology have both advanced dramatically since then.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  18. Re:Obsession by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Let's put it this way--a full-size jet airliner carrying passengers has *never* been lost without a trace. Not ever. Every one that went down was eventually found.

  19. Re:Spratly Islands by Black+Parrot · · Score: 2

    Sorry, the limit is 1 conspiracy theory per post.

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  20. Re:Obsession by JWSmythe · · Score: 2

    No, I was just trying to say that they've been searching for months. The chances of finding it are growing slimmer constantly. They should stop now, until further tangible evidence shows up. Like part of the plane washes up on a beach.

    Airlines have insurance, which should be enough to carry out reasonable search and rescue (well, recovery at this point) efforts. The reasonable period has long since passed.

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  21. Re: Obsession by 0123456 · · Score: 2

    Which part do you disagree with?

  22. Re:Obsession by _merlin · · Score: 2

    It's also a useful training exercise for the navy. It lets them practice a near-impossible salvage operation that isn't contrived.

  23. Re:Obsession by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    Scratch that, I can't read. :/ I need some sleep, apparently.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  24. Re:Obsession by RockDoctor · · Score: 2
    Fixing problems generally entails finding out what the fuck the original problem was in the first place. That is still a complete unknown in this case, and that is (rightly) very worrying to the entire aviation industry.

    I don't know about you, but whenever one of the types of aircraft in which I fly regularly goes down, I make efforts to keep track of the investigation of root causes as well as airworthiness directives etc that come out because of it. Then again, I get thrown in to a sinking mockup of an aircraft every few years to remind me that I'm liable to die in the process of getting to work, so I might pay a slightly higher attention to keeping my arse alive than you do.

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"