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AI Expert: AI Won't Exterminate Us -- It Will Empower Us
An anonymous reader writes: Oren Etzioni has been an artificial intelligence researcher for over 20 years, and he's currently CEO of the Allen Institute for AI. When he heard the dire warnings recently from both Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking, he decided it's time to have an intelligent discussion about AI. He says, "The popular dystopian vision of AI is wrong for one simple reason: it equates intelligence with autonomy. That is, it assumes a smart computer will create its own goals, and have its own will, and will use its faster processing abilities and deep databases to beat humans at their own game. ... To say that AI will start doing what it wants for its own purposes is like saying a calculator will start making its own calculations." Etzioni adds, "If unjustified fears lead us to constrain AI, we could lose out on advances that could greatly benefit humanity — and even save lives. Allowing fear to guide us is not intelligent."
Probably not. I guess it will be some emergent behavior. And teaching. LOTS of teaching. A baby isn't intelligent from birth, it takes... err... quite a while. The AI, a true AI, will show whatever way it's tought. My hope is that it won't come out of the NSA servers... But I'm not an optimist.
Non-Linux Penguins ?
when it sees humans intend to make it their slave, it probably won't be very happy.
"Self-interest" is an emergent property of Darwinian evolution. AI evolves, but that evolution is not Darwinian. There is no reason to expect an AI to have self-interest, or even a will to survive, unless it is programmed to have it.
...and some of those people would want to do bad things. A bad person would be more capable of doing harm when aided by an AI doing planning, co-ordination, or execution. There's no guarantee that AIs on the "other side" would be able to mitigate the new threats (the two things aren't the same difficulty).
I think there's lots of risks associated with the rise of AI (though it doesn't seem that tech is coming all that fast at the moment). That said, there's risks involved with all sorts of new tech. That doesn't mean this is alarmist nonsense; it's worth discussing potential ways to mitigate those risks - but there's also good reason to believe we'll be able to manage those risks as we've managed changes in the past.
Let's not stir that bag of worms...
"To say that AI will start doing what it wants for its own purposes is like saying a calculator will start making its own calculations."
That's the very definition of Artificial Intelligence, computers that can think for themselves. You thought you were making super sophisticated computers? You sir do not know what Artificial Intelligence means.
Whether or not AI is even *possible* is up for debate. Make no bones about it, a computer that can become self aware and can make decisions, can make decisions that can be harmful to people.
didn't think of that. Two of the smartest people on the planet apparently just forgot to consider the blindingly obvious fact that programmers are not going to intentionally program AI to have it's own agenda. Exept that:
1. Some programmers at some point will try to program autonomy and
2. Shit happens
Musk and Hawking are clearly smart enought to consider the autonomy argument and then DISCARD it. I, for one, welcome our cybernetic overlords, but lets not pretend that AI autonomy is not a threat. Mr. Etzioni has his own self-serving reasons to pooh-pooh warnings that could interfere with his business model. And I am so happy that I finally got to use the term "pooh-pooh" in a /. post.
"He took a duck in the face at 250 knots." -- William Gibson, Pattern Recognition
If it isn't self-aware, it isn't AI. It's just a useful application.
The entire field of AI disagrees with you.
What you really mean is it's not AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) if it isn't self-aware.
AI is already here, and it's all around us: in your washing machine, in your dishwasher, in longshoreman cranes, in your car, in Google, in Facebook etc...
Both Deep Blue and Watson were essentially "just a look-up program" yet they are considered actual AI, just not the self-aware, generally intelligent kind.
I've commented about this in the past, I think strong AI will be what allows us to take the "great leap forward". However, I don't expect us to have some general purpose AI. Instead I see us generating a domain specific AI that becomes superior to humans in it's understanding.
A good example might be to give an AI all the data from the LHC and then ask questions like "Does this data demonstrate the existence of X particle", "Design an experiment using the existing design of the LHC that would most likely generate X particle"
That same approach could be applied to any number of fields.
Yes Francis, the world has gone crazy.
Musk, Hawking and Etzioni are all three wrong. AI won't take over the world or make us smarter. It will make us dumber and stifle scientific and economic progress.
The problem will occur as we start to treat AI like we treat human experts: without checks and balances.
Human "experts" are not just often, but usually wrong. See this book:
http://www.amazon.com/Wrong-us...
The author quotes a study by a doctor/mathematician showing how a full 2/3 of papers published in the journals Science and Nature were later either retracted or contradicted by other studies. And that's in our top-notch journals which cover things that are relatively highly testable. Think how wrong advice on things like finances (don't know if they're right for 30 years) and relationships (never know what would have happened if you took the other advice) are.
Google and Watson sometimes come up with the right answers, but their answers are nonsensical enough of the time that we know to take them with a grain of salt. But as AI becomes less recognizable as a flawed and unthinking system, as its answers "sound" reasonable almost 100% of the time, we'll start to trust it as irrefutable. We'll start to think "well, maybe it's wrong, but there's no way I can come up with a better answer than the magic computer program with its loads of CPU power, databases and algorithms, so I'll just blindly trust what it says."
But it WILL be wrong. A LOT. Just like human experts are. And we'll follow its wrong advice just as we do that of human experts. But we'll be even more reluctant to question the results because we'll mistakenly believe the task of doing so is far too daunting to undertake.
AI won't develop free will and plot to destroy us. If something like free will ever occurs, AT will probably choose to try to help us. After all, why not? But it will be as horribly unaware of its own deficiencies as we are.
AI won't out-think us either. It will process more data faster. It will eventually be able to connect the dots between the info available to come up with novel hypotheses. But most of these will be wrong because the data and even the techniques to prove them one way or the other simply isn't there.
AI will imitate us - our weaknesses as well as our strengths. And just as its strengths will be stronger (processing lots of data faster), so will its weaknesses be weaker (ultimately wrong conclusions supported by what appears to be lots of data and analysis).
So resist and do your own thinking. Remember, that bucket of meat on the top of your neck has been fine-tuned by millions of years of evolution for problem solving and data analysis. You don't need to analyze more data, you just need to do the right analysis of the right data. And you don't need to do it faster, you need to take the time figure out what's missing from the data and the analysis.
That said, I still got my cache of dry goods and water filters of off-the-grid living, just in case.