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The Shale Boom Won't Stop Climate Change; It Could Make It Worse

Lasrick writes Energy expert H-Holger Rogner walks through the realities of the shale-gas boom, the 'game-changer' that has brought about a drop in energy prices and greatly reduced carbon emissions. But despite the positive impact on carbon emissions, Rogner points out that the cheap gas brought about by fracking shale may already be affecting investments into renewable energy, nuclear energy, and energy efficiency by offering more attractive investment opportunities: 'At today's prices of $4 to $5 per million British thermal units, gas-fired electricity holds a definite competitive advantage over new nuclear construction and unsubsidized renewables.' But natural gas is still a fossil fuel that emits carbon dioxide. 'A much higher share of natural gas in the energy mix would eventually raise emissions again, especially if gas not only displaces coal but also non-fossil energy sources. Moreover, methane, the chief component of natural gas, is itself a heat-trapping greenhouse gas with 25 times the warming effect of carbon dioxide. If total methane leakage—from drilling through end use—is greater than about 4 percent, that could negate any climate benefits of switching from coal and oil to gas.'

26 of 401 comments (clear)

  1. More cooling, then? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    So, will we have 36 years of no warming instead of only 18?

    1. Re:More cooling, then? by danbert8 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      This would get modded flamebait. Warmer periods in earth's history have been more life prolific. I have yet to see studies seriously listing benefits of a warmer climate and actually comparing that to any negatives. It's all catastrophe and death. Because if heaven forbid we might benefit from it, there's no reason to tax or subsidize things, which appears to be the end goal of climate research, to engage social change.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
  2. "Could", by mi · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The Shale Boom Won't Stop Climate Change; It Could Make It Worse

    On the basis of a could, we are supposed to drop everything and choose the most expensive options. No, thanks.

    Unless one's goal is to diminish the Western society, only a fool would fall for the "global warming" rhetoric these many years after none of the dire predictions materialized.

    Troll my behind — respond giving examples to the contrary: a link to a dire prediction made 10-15-20 years ago, and a link showing it materializing within 10% of the predicted "bad"...

    --
    In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
    1. Re:"Could", by russotto · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Oh, that's beautiful

      âoeThe West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds wonâ(TM)t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.â Then he said, âoeThere will be more police cars.â Why? âoeWell, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.â

      The West Side Highway of course still carries traffic. Broadway through Midtown, where he said there'd be more traffic, does not. No tape across the windows. Birds not different. Trees still there. Crime is MUCH lower.

    2. Re:"Could", by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Don't worry. You are safe. Unless someone make time machines and travel back in time from 2350 to shoot you in the head for being stupid, you are just fine.

      1. Tragedy of the commons
      2. Short term gain, pain, not in our lifetimes!

      So yes, New York WILL BE under water, in 2500. Not in 2050. Yes, Bangladesh, Neatherlands, Florida, and other places where BILLIONS of people live, WILL BE under water, in 2500, not in 2050.

      In 2050, some islands will be dead. Some coastal marshes will be saturated with salt, and dead, despite what North Carolina laws says.

      Anyway, you are *prime example* of why many people ignore Global Warming. It will not affect them drastically in their lifetimes. It will not even matter much in their children's lifetimes. Their grand kids? Well, who knows. But their grand-grand-grand-grand kids will probably start to curse 1900-2200 era.

      And you are fucking lucky that people took proactive measure to curb ozone depletion. But that only had 40 year lead time, not 400+ year lead time. And no, in 200 years you will not be able to just turn on magic reverse global warming. Even if people in 100 years stop ALL CO2 emissions, the earth will just get warmer and warmer and warmer until new equilibrium is reached.

      +12C global average means ice age

      +14.5C global average means 1950s type environment

      +15C is about current temperature.

      with current emissions, we are aiming at +20C average? +25C? If 2C is different between ice age or not, the current *at least* +5C swing is going to be very significant. But not for a few centuries. So you can rest east and call it "bullshit"

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...

    3. Re:"Could", by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If you read his quote and interpret it to mean he was talking about a hurricane, you lack reading comprehension.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:"Could", by Layzej · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's fairly basic physics. Because of the ocean we do not reach equilibrium instantaneously. Is there any evidence to suggest otherwise?

    5. Re:"Could", by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Classic Slashdot logical fallacy. One person makes a mistake, therefore all the other evidence and accurate predictions about climate change must also be wrong.

      By that logic gravity must be wrong, because Whitehead's theory of gravitation turned out to be incorrect. Clearly airlines are just ripping us off because gravity isn't real. Just look up in the sky, there are clouds up there, they don't come crashing down to earth, right?

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    6. Re:"Could", by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is why America has no friends. It's like you think polluting is your god given birthright and will continue to argue about it long after everyone else has accepted that it's a problem.

      Remember that it's only cheap for you because you are pushing the cost on to other people.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    7. Re:"Could", by amiga3D · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't think they're entirely wrong about global warming, but I am certain they aren't entirely right. Their evangelism on the subject rivals that of any Pentecostal Evangelist raving about sin. It's so much fun to pick at someone who is so certain of their rightness that it is irresistible.

  3. A Bridge Fuel... by bird · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ... to the abyss. I emit personal methane in the general direction of anybody that didn't recognize this many moons ago. The solution to climate change isn't finding ever-more-exotic carbon to extact and burn - it's to stop burning carbon as soon as possible.

    1. Re: A Bridge Fuel... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There's a war on, if you didn't know. It's not about alternatives.

      The old-fashioned oil cartel powers lowered traditionally-sourced oil prices for two reasons: first, to fuck over Russia (likely at US bidding, since Saudi Arabia started this increase in production) and second, to suppress investment in shale and fracking. The shale and fracking oil companies are now fighting for survival, because no one's giving them money for capex. The shale/fracking companies can't support themselves when oil is under $75/barrel; it's now at $60. The Saudis (and a half-reluctant OPEC) are betting that they can hold the prices down long enough to fuck over the upstart competition that's not under their control. If prices are down for much longer, there will probably be a bidding war to take over a lot of the shale/fracking companies.

      Alternatives (solar, wind, nuclear, whatever) are collateral damage in this price war; they weren't a big enough part of the picture to be a real threat anyway. Peru is and always was meaningless.

      One day, alternatives will emerge as a threat, but by then there won't be enough oil for the traditional powers to dump on the market. Perhaps the Chinese or the Indians will have figured out a safer nuclear power solution by then, and they might even sell some technology to the US and Europe.

    2. Re: A Bridge Fuel... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      that's what nuclear is for dumbass but your dumbass lefties and greenies are too afraid safer plants might permit our civilization to continue growing so they won't touch them.

  4. We are doomed... by TropicalCoder · · Score: 1, Insightful

    No matter what they do, they won't do anything that will save us anyhow. Our generation will be Ok, but the upcoming generations will have a challenge. Coastal areas as they are now will be uninhabitable, and a lot of people will suffer from a wide variety of things like droughts and inundations and cold or hot. A lot of people will suffer, because we won't do anything to change the situation, but they will get over it eventually. One door closes and another door opens. Places that are considered too cold today will have a moderate climate tomorrow. However, the world's standard of living may drop in the process. This in itself will reduce carbon emissions.

    Meanwhile, San Francisco will get the Big One one day not too long from now, and Mount Pinatubo will become a super volcano and cover a third of the USA with magma. Nothing much we can do about that, but USA was headed down hill anyhow.

    1. Re:We are doomed... by Kjella · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I hear what you're saying but here in Norway we have stone age settlements that are 100-200 meters above the current sea level - glaciers depressed the whole country. Current coastal settlements may suffer, but even if you assume 100% of the ice melting it's not 2012 and we don't need a new Noah's ark. People live in temperatures from Sahara to Siberia and in weather patterns from rain forest to to desert. "Save us" makes it sound like we're heading towards some kind of extinction level event and clearly we're not.

      The real threat to our environment is not our lifestyle, it's that we've been multiplying like rabbits. In 1900 the world population was 1650 million, they could all be polluting like Americans of 2014 and they'd still emit less CO2 in total than the world does today. If we double the population we need to cut the pollution in half to stay constant, it's not higher math. That's a very touch subject of personal freedom, but condoms, birth control and China's one child policy is probably the best long term action for the environment.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  5. Glass half empty by iamacat · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Switching from oil and coal to natural gas is a positive step in reducing both carbon emissions and other pollutants. We should celebrate progress rather than grumbling that it doesn't solve humanity's problems forever and ever, because nothing ever will. If carbon tax is implemented, natural gas will be more economical than oil and eventually other technologies will be more economical than natural gas.

  6. Re:THERE HAS NEVER BEEN CLIMATE STASIS! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Nope. Two sides of the same coin.

    Under communism, government and business are one and the same. Under fascism, business and government are one and the same.

  7. This whole issue is like watching... by Karmashock · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ... some idiot try to grab water like he's picking up a ball or something. Every time they squeeze, it just shoots through their fingers and they get nothing.

    Capitalist economies are dynamic. They respond. Squeeze in one place and you create pressure that causes the system to adapt to restore equilibrium.

    Listen to Bruce Lee... Understand what it is to be water. To flow.

    The issue with trying to control fossil fuel consumption is that it fills a need. That need exists. It is a sucking vacuum that will draw solutions to it and will do so in the most cost efficient manner it can find.

    For example... that might mean off shoring all production to Asia if you make it too expensive to make things in the West. Very simple to do that. Totally bypasses all the environmental laws instantly. Anything that makes production in the US more expensive then somewhere else will just result in off shoring.

    That principle carries over to everything else. A major mistake environmental activists keep making is fucking with prices and expecting the system to not change the way it does things to reduce costs. They think the system will just choose the path they decide rather then keep looking.

    Listen to Jeff Goldblum from Jurassic Park:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    Life will find a way. It will not be contained.

    Your solutions must be cost neutral or very nearly cost neutral or must be cheaper then existing models.

    Or you will have set yourself up as an obstacle. And life will find a way.

    You might not like that anymore then the people liked getting eaten by dinosaurs in that movie. But the dinosaurs don't care what you want. They want what they want and you can't really stop them without destroying everything.

    If you want to keep the system active and you really have no choice here... then you're going to have to play the game. Learn the rules or lose.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    1. Re:This whole issue is like watching... by Karmashock · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'll be very clear then.

      You're dealing with what are ultimately derivations of human nature on geopolitical scales.

      These forces are nearly natural forces in their intensity, intractability, indifference to criticism, etc. They have their own rules they operate on. Like gravity, supply and demand doesn't care if you find something immoral or undesirable. If the demand is there then that sucking void is going to feed its need. Look at the war on drugs. How is that working out? Same thing. Supply and demand. People have drugs. Other people want drugs. The two call to each other until the one services the other. Same thing with energy. You cut off my supply of energy... I want energy... someone else has energy and they're willing to sell it to me. I will get what I want.

      You cannot stop me. You can only make yourself an additional problem I have to deal with to get what I need.

      You only solve this issue by making sure first and foremost that I get what I need. Try to starve me and you will either get bypassed or eaten in turn.

      You say you don't have a cost neutral alternative?

      I asked you to look into the raptor's eye. Don't think you're reasoning with another reasonable human being here. You are looking into the eye of something that is hungry, powerful, and clever. And if you do not understand how this creature works then you are not going to be able to control it. It will take what it wants without hesitation, pity, or remorse.

      Fossil fuels service a need for energy. They are currently cheap, reliable, and abundant. When the raptor is hungry, it is going to seek out easy to kill prey that it finds tasty.

      What you are suggesting is putting the raptor on a diet... feeding it less... and you probably want to feed it something else... maybe kale or something. The raptor is going to be hungry until it isn't. And the raptor is hungry for what it considers food... not what you consider food.

      That is what you are reasoning with and are attempting to regulate. When you put up electrified fences, all you're doing is creating obstacles. The raptor doesn't respect these barriers. It simply sees them as puzzles it has to solve.

      In regards to global warming, out sourcing instantly bypasses most environmental regulations. It renders irrelevant most of the rules. The raptor escapes and does what it wants.

      Another good trick is bribing the gate keepers. You give the politicians a little bit of meat and they leave a little hole in the fence that lets the raptor out to do what it wants. In that case, all the regulation accomplishes is to give corrupt politicians ways to extort bribes. Nothing more in many cases.

      If you want to fix the issue, then you need to appreciate that answers that do not answer the question are not answers at all.

      Lazy and naive policy wonks keep thinking they can solve complicated problems with lazy hamfisted policies that mostly rely on government violence to compel compliance. Rather then solve the puzzle you are slaming jigsaw pieces into places they do not go. With enough force the cardboard can be ripped and any piece can fit anywhere. This is in many cases the logic of many government policies. "We have guns and prisons. They comply with what we say or we'll throw them in jail or shoot them." All you're doing is creating barriers. The dumb ones won't figure out how to get out. But the clever ones test the walls... tap tap tap scrape along the edges. They watch. They wait. And when their moment comes... they will be ready. They always have been.

      I can think of many ways to improve the environment without causing ripples in the equilibrium. My solutions will not be attractive to the crypto marxists... but then they only see the environmental issues as a means to an end rather then an end unto themselves.

      For those that genuinely care... the solution is finding a solution for everyone. That includes the industries that feed and fuel us all. You have no solution if your first step is to fuck over the beating heart of our civilization.

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    2. Re:This whole issue is like watching... by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The issue with trying to control fossil fuel consumption is that it fills a need. That need exists. It is a sucking vacuum that will draw solutions to it and will do so in the most cost efficient manner it can find.

      For example... that might mean off shoring all production to Asia if you make it too expensive to make things in the West. Very simple to do that. Totally bypasses all the environmental laws instantly. Anything that makes production in the US more expensive then somewhere else will just result in off shoring.

      Europe solved this ages ago. Firstly to make things more efficient, so that the demand goes down. If your house is well insulated you need less cooling and heating, simple as that. Doesn't matter how cheap it is, you don't need it. New buildings can be pretty much passive at fairly minimal cost these days.

      Secondly, you require imported goods to meet certain standards. The EU has things like RoHS that require goods not to use hazardous materials, but also requires companies offshoring manufacturing or importing to be environmentally responsible in the countries where their factories are. Companies will do it because they want to sell to the EU, which is a huge and very profitable market. In the EU corporations are our bitch and do what we tell them to, unlike in the US where you are the corporation's bitch and do what they tell you to.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    3. Re:This whole issue is like watching... by Kjella · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The whole "if we offer better conditions than sweatshops, we will be run out of business by sweatshops" argument is bullshit. It's used by the economic elite to argue why you should slave all day for table scraps while they make millions and by "learning the rules" you mean "bend over and take it like a good boy". We can demand basic environmental conditions just like we demand worker health and safety, no child labor, minimum wage and a bunch of other conditions and a few might bugger off but you won't miss working there. If you squeeze too hard it will all go away though, it's not like grabbing water maybe more like pudding.

      Besides, what you're talking about is not really capitalism it's human nature, of course we adapt how we play to the rules of the games. That's what they're trying to do, give people the right incentives. And yes, that is hard in a dynamic system and if you don't have a good enough model what you do might end up being counterproductive. Some of it is just ridiculous, like here in Norway we export gas and import coal-based power, because then the emissions didn't happen here. That makes no sense at all. But just because some things environmentalists do is facepalm-worthy, doesn't mean that it all is.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  8. Re:THERE HAS NEVER BEEN CLIMATE STASIS! by Ichijo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Totalitarian government, whether it gets sold to the people as "Communist" or "Fascist" or whatever the next excuse will be to give central government ever more power always comes from the left.

    Except when it benefits Big Oil, then that fascism (actually, dirigism, which is close enough) comes from the right. Unless you can name one right wing politician who opposes minimum parking requirements?

    I use this example because such requirements take away our freedom and property rights while benefiting Big Oil by inducing people to drive everywhere.

    It's interesting how the left errs on the side of the poor while the right errs on the side of the wealthy.

    --
    Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
  9. Re:Your argument is devoid of facts by NoOneInParticular · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The NAZI party was the NATIONAL Socialist GERMAN Workers PARTY. So per your argument, that's as right wing as it gets. All the NATIONAL parties of the history have been right wing. Left wing parties are typically INTERNATIONAL (their war-song is even called the "Internationale"), as their ideology is about class, not about nation.

    So the name of the Nazis both appeal to extreme left wing, as well as extreme right wing. This is not a coincidence.

    The rest of the AC's argument is as stupid and ill-informed.

  10. Re:THERE HAS NEVER BEEN CLIMATE STASIS! by bames53 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Unless you can name one right wing politician who opposes minimum parking requirements?

    Pretty much any libertarian leaning Republican. Not that I particularly support him, but I imagine Sen. Paul would express opposition to minimum parking requirements if asked, and his father certainly would and would have voted against any such legislation.

    It's interesting how the left errs on the side of the poor while the right errs on the side of the wealthy.

    Actually both sides err on the side of the wealthy, the left only pretends or is fooled into thinking the things it does 'for the poor' actually benefit the poor. For example almost all of the programs that are supposedly to benefit the less well off in fact transfer more from the poorer to the better off than vice versa.

  11. Re:THERE HAS NEVER BEEN CLIMATE STASIS! by jandersen · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The left is about central control

    So, you're implying that large corporations, like Oracle, IBM, Microsoft (or Redhat for that matter), are basically a bunch of commies? And the different churches, they are of course too? I think, maybe you have a different way of navigating through space from the rest of us.

    Out here, in the real world, words like '(political) left', 'communism' and 'socialism', are about the idea that we might all be better off if we shared more of the burdens of life; that in order to protect essential freedoms, such as freedom of speech and self-determination, we need to agree on the rules, and because there are selfish bullies in the world, we also need to be able to enforce the rules. And the words '(political) right', 'capitalism' and 'free market' are about the idea that it is best to allow the individual to seek their own fortune in the way they believe is right.

    We have had ample demonstration over the last century or so, that taken to the extreme, both of these ideas produce monsters, which ironically end up looking very alike, as fascism. An insightful person will realize that society, in order to be stable and functional, needs both of those ingredients to some extent.It is also not hard to see that the balance is not right in the US at the moment, which is why you are becoming more and more unstable.

  12. Re:heresy! With that attitude, it'd be solved by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Actually solar heating is really efficient and cheap. It's kinda dumb to generate electricity, from whatever source, and use it to heat water when you can just let the sun do it for you. In addition, storing heat is easy and cheap.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC