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Did Alcatraz Escapees Survive? Computer Program Says They Might Have

Posted by timothy on from the like-to-think-so dept.

In June of 1962, three prisoners escaped the penitentary on Alcatraz, in an elaborate plot that was dramatized in a Clint Eastwood movie. A question that has long puzzled the public is whether these men ever made it to shore; the many factors that made Alcatraz a secure prison include sharks, cold water, and contrary currents. Still, some artifacts from the attempt, and perhaps the appeal of stories about survival against high odds, have led many people to believe that the men actually landed safely and faded into society. coondoggie writes This week Dutch scientists from Delft University of Technology presented findings from a computer modeling program they were working on, unrelated to the mystery, that demonstrated the escapees could have survived the journey. "In hindsight, the best time to launch a boat from Alcatraz was [11:30 am], one and a half hours later than has generally been assumed. A rubber boat leaving Alcatraz at [11:30 am] would most likely have landed just north of the Golden Gate Bridge. The model also shows that debris in that scenario would be likely to wash up at Angel Island, exactly where one of the paddles and some personal belongings were found.

23 of 89 comments (clear)

  1. Myth Confirmed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Didn't Mythbusters do this years ago?

    1. Re:Myth Confirmed... by Z00L00K · · Score: 3

      Yep, I think it was considered "Plausible".

      It all comes down to the condition of the escapees, some amount of luck and then ability to keep a low profile.

      I think that the last factor would have been the hardest - keep a low profile after a successful escape.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    2. Re:Myth Confirmed... by show+me+altoids · · Score: 4, Informative

      By the way, the shark thing is bullshit. There are plenty of small sharks in SF Bay, but almost no maneaters. It was a rumor spread to scare potential escapees.

      --
      I feel sorry for people that don't drink, because when they get up in the morning, that's as good as they're gonna feel
    3. Re:Myth Confirmed... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Not really, just keep a low profile long enough to make it to Mexico.u.

      It is unlikely they would have done that. All three of these guys were troublemakers. They had been in and out of jails, and were in Alcatraz because they were disruptive in other prisons. They were not the type to just disappear and live a quiet life in some tropical backwater.

    4. Re:Myth Confirmed... by Aighearach · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Did car reports always get filed on the correct day back then? It isn't like something they're going to put a CSI team on, so it might have really just not mattered to the cops exactly when a car was stolen unless it was one where they caught somebody with it. And then it would be the witnesses who needed to be helped to remember, not the paperwork.

      My understanding of pre-computer paperwork, including during much of my life, is that you really can't say one way or the other if cars were reported stolen on a particular day, or not. And a stolen car was often not reported for a couple days. The first thing people tried to do was get to work because public transit sucked. It might not be until their day off that it gets reported. "Sorry Sir, you can't sign the complaint over the phone, you'll have to come in to the station."

      They didn't need a car though, what they needed was a friend in town. It isn't exactly remote.

    5. Re:Myth Confirmed... by magarity · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If they were smart enough to pull off this escape, they might be smart enough to realize enough is enough.

    6. Re:Myth Confirmed... by Darinbob · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Mythbusters only briefly looked at currents and simulations (at least in the part that made it to the show). They did not attempt to replicate the tidal patterns. The new study has more science behind it. Mythbusters is great because it gets people thinking, but people shouldn't treat the shows as conclusive.

    7. Re:Myth Confirmed... by Aighearach · · Score: 2

      The first thing people tried to do was get to work because public transit sucked.

      You say that like there is viable public transit in this day in age...??

      If you want to actually catch the bus on the north side of the Golden Gate it is going to cost you $3 or something, and it doesn't run very often. But you can just walk across the bridge and catch a ~$1 bus to anywhere in SF. There are certainly places with sucky public transit, including where I live, but the Bay Area isn't that place; they have really good coverage and frequent service to all but the richest neighborhoods.

  2. Who cares by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    1. Mythbusters (and others) have already tested this in real life (not a computer program) and said they could have survived.
    2. They could have survived, but they didn't survive. Unless they lived out the rest of their lives in isolation; we would have heard something from them.

    1. Re:Who cares by Deadstick · · Score: 2

      If they had the smarts to pull off the escape, why assume they wouldn't have the smarts not to boast about it?

    2. Re:Who cares by PPH · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Unless they lived out the rest of their lives in isolation;

      This was 1962. Living under an alias, with no SSN or ID (or a fake) was considerably easier than it is today.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    3. Re:Who cares by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Plenty of criminals hide in plain sight. If you honestly think that cops/FBI/whomever could just walk down the street and point out the criminals from memory then you're kidding yourself. Not to say that law enforcement is totally inept but scores of crimes probably happened the same day they escaped. While they certainly made the news not many are going to remember who they might be for any real length of time.

    4. Re:Who cares by nabsltd · · Score: 3, Informative

      This was 1962. Living under an alias, with no SSN or ID (or a fake) was considerably easier than it is today.

      Most people don't realize that only a few states had just recently started putting photos on licenses at that time, while the rest had no pictures.

  3. fugitives would go back to prison by raymorris · · Score: 4, Insightful

    > Why didn't we ever hear anything from them after the escape?

    Because they'd be sent back to prison if they revealed themselves. They had also embarrassed the warden of the "escape proof" Alcatraz in a very public way. Their first week back likely would have been rather unpleasant.

  4. Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by mmell · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Think about it - they obviously didn't reoffend, right? If they had, they'd have been detected and returned (probably with a few extra bruises) to the Rock. Therefore, in the case of these three men the system worked perfectly - whether they escaped or not.

    1. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by FatAlb3rt · · Score: 2

      Sure, unless they re-offended under a new identity, your idea is ROCK SOLID!

    2. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by Charliemopps · · Score: 4, Funny

      Think about it - they obviously didn't reoffend, right? If they had, they'd have been detected and returned (probably with a few extra bruises) to the Rock. Therefore, in the case of these three men the system worked perfectly - whether they escaped or not.

      Didn't re-offend? You mean, didn't get caught. There's a difference.

    3. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by chemicaldave · · Score: 5, Informative

      You say that as if the US penal system's primary goal is to rehabilitate rather than punish. Our system is designed not to rehabilitate, rather it enacts harsh punishment as a theoretical deterrent to crime, and more recently has become a for-profit private enterprise.

    4. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by Penguinisto · · Score: 2

      You mean, didn't get caught. There's a difference.

      They'd have to have kept those crimes to extremely petty ones at the most. Even though the 1960's didn't have facial recognition, the TSA (for what that's worth), instant background checks, widespread Social Security Number checking mechanisms, or any of the stuff we have today? They definitely had fingerprinting, and at least some semblance of a national fingerprint database of sorts to check against (the FBI would have had these guys' fingerprints after the break.)

      They could have eventually slipped through the cracks even if they re-offended (e.g. it wasn't uncommon for, say, truck drivers to have multiple drivers' licenses from multiple states), but any crime beyond a misdemeanor would have had the local PD looking at some stranger (stranger in their town that is) and doing at least a cursory check, if only to build a rap sheet for the prosecution.

      IMHO, if they made it, they likely hoofed it to Canada or Mexico (or perhaps further South) and built an assumed identity from which to live out the rest of their lives in as obscure a manner as possible. Over time, that new identity would become reinforced.

      It wouldn't be the first time either... I recall a few instances in the '80s and even the '90s where some schlub or other escaped prison in that era (or before), got himself a new identity, and decades later did something stupid (IIRC, in one case the dumbass ran for a local public office, and a local reporter researching his background found the inconsistencies).

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    5. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by Firethorn · · Score: 3, Informative

      It wouldn't be the first time either... I recall a few instances in the '80s and even the '90s where some schlub or other escaped prison in that era (or before), got himself a new identity, and decades later did something stupid (IIRC, in one case the dumbass ran for a local public office, and a local reporter researching his background found the inconsistencies).

      Nazi war criminals are another example of them fading into society. Quite a few have died or even slid into dementia before being found.

      I remember reading about the dementia case - they're holding this murder trial (in Germany) and the accused can't even remember that he's in a courthouse half the time. But they're so balls up on prosecuting him that they're doing daily competency tests - if he passed the test the trial went forward that day. Otherwise it didn't. They spend years trying to prosecute him(with delays getting longer and longer due to him sliding further into dementia), he's obviously reached the point that even if convicted all that's going to happen is that they'll assign a prison guard to his room in the care facility at some massive expense(other medical issues besides slowly losing his mind ensured that, their prison system didn't have that level of care available), etc...

      And he was only supposed to have been a common camp guard at the time, which was deliberately ignored back during the Nuremberg trials.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    6. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      As a former cop and lawyer, I can tell you that the crime rate among all poor populations is high. FACT: the crime rate among illegal immigrants is lower than that among poor citizens.

  5. Re:But These Where Dangerous Criminals ... by oldmac31310 · · Score: 5, Funny

    They just got jobs as politicians - Cheney, Rove, Rumsfeld - these are just a few of the escaped prisoners you are looking for.

    --
    http://www.acetonestudio.com
  6. Occam's razor. by westlake · · Score: 2

    Didn't re-offend? You mean, didn't get caught. There's a difference.

    The Anglin brothers Alfred Clarence (born May 11, 1931) and John William (born May 2, 1930) were born in Donalsonville, Georgia, and worked as farmers and laborers. Together they started to rob banks in Georgia and were arrested in 1956.

    Frank Lee Morris was born in Washington, D.C., on September 1, 1926, and spent most of his early years in foster homes. He was orphaned at age 11 and was convicted of his first crime at the age of 13, and by his late teens had been arrested for crimes ranging from possession of narcotics to armed robbery.

    In 2014 researchers at Delft University, using a computer model, concluded that if the men set off approximately at midnight, when the currents might have worked in their favor, they could have made landfall; but if they left in the hours either side, the currents would have been too strong to overcome and they very likely died.

    June 1962 Alcatraz escape

    In other words, habitual criminals with limited skills and prospects.

    Morris, with an IQ of 133. had never found a way to walk away from a crime that would not end in his arrest.

    The timing would have had to have been damn near perfect based on computer models constructed some fifty years later.