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Does Journal Peer Review Miss Best and Brightest?

sciencehabit writes: A study published today indicates that the scientific peer review system does a reasonable job of predicting the eventual interest in most papers, but it may fail when it comes to identifying really game-changing research. Papers that were accepted outright by one of the three elite journals tended to garner more citations than papers that were rejected and then published elsewhere (abstract). And papers that were rejected went on to receive fewer citations than papers that were approved by an editor. But there is a serious chink in the armor: All 14 of the most highly cited papers in the study were rejected by the three elite journals, and 12 of those were bounced before they could reach peer review. The finding suggests that unconventional research that falls outside the established lines of thought may be more prone to rejection from top journals.

22 of 139 comments (clear)

  1. Uhm, this place is peer reviewed... by The+New+Guy+2.0 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    For those of you just joining us, peers given mod points hand them out to review comments posted here. CmdrTaco's site has seen a lot of controversies with this system in the earlier days, and M2 was invented to review the mod point decisions. Lots of discussion has been sorted by this system, and the crap found on other servers has been eliminated.

    1. Re:Uhm, this place is peer reviewed... by omfgnosis · · Score: 4, Interesting

      And some of the most interesting, insightful, informative and funny comments go on forever underrated, and mostly unseen. This is caused in part by an understandable but evidently imperfect bias in Slashdot's design, where incumbent posts (posted earliest, posted by trusted users) are given greater visibility.

      Like peer review in journals, it is possible that mostly-positive solutions can have negative consequences as well.

    2. Re:Uhm, this place is peer reviewed... by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      Considering the papers were eventually published anyway, it's hard to see how there's a huge problem here.
      "Impactful papers don't always get in biggest journals" isn't the same as "peer review has a problem."

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  2. Obligatory Einstein Quote by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 3, Interesting

    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    -- Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure: I found this at this web site.

    --
    -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
    1. Re:Obligatory Einstein Quote by The+New+Guy+2.0 · · Score: 2

      Yep, science that's kept to one person or a small group doesn't accomplish much. That's why the innovators must meet somewhere or somehow.

  3. Not a measure of quality by toQDuj · · Score: 4, Interesting

    While I don't disagree with the conclusions, this summary equates paper "quality" with number of citations. High numbers of citations do not mean high quality, and is very field-dependent.
    Quality can only be assessed by people reading the paper.

    --
    Every experiment which ends in a big bang is a good experiment.
    1. Re:Not a measure of quality by drooling-dog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Also, a lot of highly-cited papers are methodological in nature, and the "Big 3" tend not to publish many of those.

    2. Re:Not a measure of quality by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      >While I don't disagree with the conclusions, this summary equates paper "quality" with number of citations.

      No, they don't "equate". They provide a metric and this metric seems reasonable. Black or white is not applicable here. We are talking about high probability of high quality. Does not work each time. The metric will sometimes miss some good paper but high cited paper are important papers.

      >High numbers of citations do not mean high quality, and is very field-dependent.
      >Quality can only be assessed by people reading the paper.

      You mean that people who assess won't cite a good paper they read? They won't recommend it? That is a nonsense. High number of citation means major paper. However, low number of citation does not mean low quality.

  4. Correlation is not causation. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    People tend to cite papers from higher ranked journals more. In addition, said journals are higher ranked by search engines so the virtuous cycle continues. Thus this result is bogus.

    The right way to do this study is to do a controlled study. Fortunately, this has been done in the recent NIPS conference (note that in CS conferences are more important than journals). See http://mrtz.org/blog/the-nips-experiment/ for details. Essentially, the noise is *huge*.

    An excerpt:
    "Relative to what people expected, 57% is actually closer to a purely random committee, which would only disagree on 77.5% of the accepted papers on average:"

  5. This is not a suprise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    University level:
    I Just finished my PhD at Imperial College, a world leading institute, and all they care about is incremental research that industry will fund. New ideas just get thrown away until another university does the ground work and the IC jumps in with bigger wallets and then takes it on/steals it.

    UK Government funding:
    If you have a new or interesting approach forget about getting grant funding, you only get money in the UK if the work has already been proven to be successful. Quite literally the funding peer review of your grant can be rejected because you don't have the end answer (with a high degree of certainty) the research would give.

    Original ideology of peer review is great, what is being practiced today (at least in the UK) is broken.

    1. Re:This is not a suprise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If you have a new or interesting approach forget about getting grant funding, you only get money in the UK if the work has already been proven to be successful.

      There's a lot of scientific work that needs doing that requires high levels of scientific training, creativity and motivation but that isn't groundbreaking science. This scientific work can be anything from preparing scientific animations for educational use to working as a genome sequencing technician.

      Maybe I'm just too cynical but, from what I've seen, it's essentially impossible to get grant funding for truly innovative and groundbreaking science. But there's a lot of outside-the-box innovative research that could be done with little more than a scientific researcher's time - i.e. doesn't need millions of dollars of scientific equipment.

      So I wonder about whether some 50/50 support scheme could work: pay scientists a decent salary (say, $70K/year) to do routine quantifiable scientific work for half the year but then let them do whatever scientific research they want for the other half the year. You could still require them to account for their time - e.g. ran molecular dynamics simulation in morning took walk to think about results in afternoon. But you wouldn't try to micromanage the topic(s) of their research.

      In a certain sense, that's the rose tinted stereotype of the old university professor - gives some lectures to justify his salary but is understood to spend much of his time staring into space and pondering the mysteries of the Universe. The problem is that, with the insane excess of science PhDs all competing for faculty positions these days, to compete successfully university professors have to occupy almost all their time with administrative nonsense (e.g. bringing in more grant money) so they're no longer free to pursue the big questions (which would involve way too much failure to be acceptable to a modern university administration).

      In a certain sense, the key to promoting groundbreaking science is to reduce the accountability and competitive pressure and create an environment where scientists can muck about at the fringes of human knowledge - looking for really interesting stuff but most of the time failing to find anything at all.

    2. Re:This is not a suprise by excelsior_gr · · Score: 3, Informative

      This happens in Germany as well. When we applied for a government grant we had to present a detailed project plan and describe the "deliverables" in ridiculous detail. The people in the review committee weren't idiots, they knew that the plan was bullocks, but you had to include it anyway. Back then I attributed the whole thing to the german obsession with planning.

  6. Statistical studies by jklovanc · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This is yet another statistical study that itself has flaws.
    1.What was the selection process for the studies. The phrase "All 14 of the most highly cited papers in the study" implies that there were papers not in the study. Possible selection bias?
    2. They do not go into why the 14 papers were cited so much and if any further research or refinement of the papers were done before they were accepted by other journals. Surface analysis of numbers can be manipulated to say anything.
    3. They also say that it might be better to not have a review and just publish everything. This just means that everyone who reads the papers has to do the review. That is not practical. There are many papers that should not be published due to shoddy practices or malfeasance. Instead of trowing out the whole system how about looking at why the 14 papers were rejected and modifying the system accordingly.
    4. The article does not give access to the study so we can review it. It is behind a paywall.

    1. Re:Statistical studies by nedlohs · · Score: 2

      1.What was the selection process for the studies. The phrase "All 14 of the most highly cited papers in the study" implies that there were papers not in the study. Possible selection bias?

      Of course there were papers not in the study, they didn't look at every single paper ever submitted to a peer reviewed journal in all of human history. The paywall means I can't see if they explained how the 1008 got selected - well not can't, won't since my interest isn't so high as to fork over cash for it.

      2. They do not go into why the 14 papers were cited so much and if any further research or refinement of the papers were done before they were accepted by other journals. Surface analysis of numbers can be manipulated to say anything.

      Did you read the paper? As you said it's behind a paywall. I would hope they'd dig into the top 10 at least.

      3. They also say that it might be better to not have a review and just publish everything. This just means that everyone who reads the papers has to do the review. That is not practical. There are many papers that should not be published due to shoddy practices or malfeasance. Instead of trowing out the whole system how about looking at why the 14 papers were rejected and modifying the system accordingly.

      I see no such claim is that in the paywalled paper or did you mix up a random commentator and the authors?

      The top papers being rejected seems like a perfectly fine system to me. The prestigious elite journals will have some risk aversion to publishing things way out of the mainstream - that's fine because there are other journals that take more risks. And according to this study the most cited articles were in fact not published in those elite journals but were published elsewhere (or else they couldn't be cited) and thus "the system" appears to work just fine.

    2. Re:Statistical studies by complete+loony · · Score: 2

      So build a wiki / forum -ish system where "accepted" papers are published. Anyone can submit a paper, or criticism, or a review, or a meta-review... With a collection of editors & "reviewers" try to keep the whole thing honest.

      In other words, a wikipedia that *only* accepts original research.

      --
      09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
  7. The finding suggests..? by fustakrakich · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I would say the finding confirms that unconventional research that falls outside the established lines of thought may be more prone to rejection from top journals.

    It's typical human politics and ideology at work. What would you expect from a large group of people, all with vested interests?

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  8. Matches my experience by gweihir · · Score: 2

    I frequently had papers rejected as "not new" without citation and then accepted elsewhere where they told me on request that they checked carefully and found the content was indeed new and interesting. My take is that this may also quite often be "reviewers" that are envious or trying to compete by putting others down, not only ones that are incompetent. Fortunately, I had nothing stolen by reviewers (after they rejected it) but I know people that had this happen to them. As the peer-review system is set up at this time, the best and the brightest need longer to get their things published, need much longer to get PhDs and have significantly lower chances at an academic career as a result. Instead those that publish a lot of shallow and/or meaningless incremental research get all the professorships, while barely qualifying as scientists. The most destructive result of this is that many fields have little or no real advancement going on as new ideas are actively squashed. After all, new ideas would show how abysmally bad at science the current position-holders are. But this is not new. Cranks like Newton had research by others squashed or suppressed, because it was better than his stuff. This is also the reason most scientific discoveries take about one research-career-length to go into actual use. The thing is that the perpetrators of the status-quo have to retire before their misconceptions and mediocre approaches can be replaced. Exceptionally stupid, but all too human.

    Personally, I am now in an interesting industrial job, and I still do the occasional paper as a hobby. But I would strongly advise anybody bright against trying for an academic career. Wanting to do research right reliably ensures that you will not be able to do an academic career at all. The core ingredients for a scientific career are mediocrity, absence of brilliance, hard work and a lot of political maneuvering. Oh, and you must not care about doing good science!

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  9. Duh... by Livius · · Score: 2

    "unconventional... may be more prone to rejection"

    Isn't that the definition of 'unconventional'?

  10. It's middle school all over again by bouldin · · Score: 2

    Like many things in life, it's a popularity contest first, and a meritocracy second (at best).

  11. "Unconventional research" is fine by Namarrgon · · Score: 2

    "Unconventional methodology" is not.

    Papers that don't use sufficiently rigorous methods should be rejected, regardless of their conclusions - even if those conclusions eventually turn out to be right. It's the only way to have any confidence about the research. If the authors are so sure of their results, they should do them more carefully, and submit again.

    Far too often, rejections are taken as evidence of cronyism or groupthink (usually by those whose beliefs are contradicted by established science), when it's simply obvious flaws in methodology. When your methods are bulletproof, only then you can expect with confidence to pass review.

    --
    Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
  12. Paywalls? by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Maybe those 14 articles were cited more because they weren't buried under the paywalls imposed by the three "elite" journals? Scientists could actually get their eyes on these articles without paying a steep subscription or per unit cost?

    Maybe the elite journals actually hinder the exchange of information and ideas that science needs to move forward? Nah! Can't be!

    --

    Left MS Windows for Linux Mint and never looked back!

    Vote for Bernie in 2016!

  13. Survivorship bias! by mha · · Score: 3, Interesting

    > Considering the papers were eventually published anyway

    That seems to be a clear cut case of biased sampling. What you heard about is all there is?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...