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US Air Force Selects Boeing 747-8 To Replace Air Force One

Tyketto writes Following up on a previous story about its replacement, the US Air Force has selected the Boeing 747-8 to replace the aging Presidential fleet of two VC-25s, which are converted B747-200s. With the only other suitable aircraft being the Airbus A380, the USAF cited Boeing's 50-year history of building presidential aircraft as their reason to skip competition and opt directly for the aircraft, which due to dwindling sales and prospects, may be the last 747s to be produced.

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  1. track record by ganjadude · · Score: 4, Interesting

    which due to dwindling sales and prospects, may be the last 747s to be produced.

    the 747 has been around forever, with many upgrades over that time. it has a proven track record. Now, generally im against no bid contracts, but this one makes sense.

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    1. Re:track record by ganjadude · · Score: 5, Interesting

      why would you think it will be their last plane? the article notes that the 747 and the airbus are the only 2 quad engine planes available at this point in time. the replacement planes are intended to last 30+ years, as such why dont you think boeing will be able to compete again in 30 years??

      And yes, because america, I think the president should rock american made transportation, and if the 747 is the only american made option, so be it

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    2. Re:track record by erice · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why does it make sense? Because America? Even with this token gesture, it will likely be the last Boeing plane used for the president's fleet.

      No. It means they will be the last 747's in the president's fleet. Boeing isn't going out of business. They are just winding up construction of 747's. The next time around, they will have to choose a different airframe. But it may still be made a Boeing.

    3. Re:track record by StikyPad · · Score: 4, Funny

      Better yet, why don't we scrap Air Force One and pay Russia for POTUS to take flights on its Ilyushin Il-96-300PU.

    4. Re: track record by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Correct, but the 4-engine requirement is actually for power and survivability.

      It really has nothing to do with all the other reasons, in this situation.

    5. Re:track record by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Also, Airbus refused to submit a proposal for this when approached several years ago (while there was no bidding process, basic proposals were requested from both Airbus and Boeing) because they knew it was a no contest decision.

    6. Re:track record by MickyTheIdiot · · Score: 2

      Well I am surprised we don't have someone complaining and saying we should just by POTUS a bicycle yet.

    7. Re:track record by tnk1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Because America" is a legitimate requirement for a Presidential aircraft. The President and what he uses is a powerful statement about the strength of US industry. That's why Queen Elizabeth II has a Bentley, and the French President is driven around in a Peugeot or a Citroën.

      It is legitimate for politicians to have political reasoning behind the selection of their conveyances. I'd be surprised that they'd even consider Airbus for AF1, even if it was cheaper or slightly better.

    8. Re:track record by saider · · Score: 5, Funny

      An airplane flying over the Atlantic lost one of its four engines, and the pilot came on to reassure the passengers. “Nothing to fear,” he said, “we’ll just be half an hour late arriving in New York.” A while later, another engine was lost. “Nothing to fear,” said the pilot again, “we’ll be an hour late now but we’re still safe.” Later, a third engine went out, and the pilot informed the passengers that arrival time would now be two hours late. One of the passengers turned to his seatmate and said, “If that last engine goes, we’ll be up here forever!”

      --


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    9. Re:track record by iluvcapra · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This is approximately the same arrangement "our" astronauts use at the moment.

      Boeing makes a lot of passenger planes, and the US has really expensive new fighter jets, but apart from that the US aerospace establishment is kinda earning a C+ at the moment. The US doesn't make any of the current highest/fastest/heaviest aircraft, our military procurement system is completely sclerotic and over-managed, the best thing we have going for us is a PayPal billionaire who's building rockets effectively as a hobby...

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    10. Re:track record by alexander_686 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      747 is the only american made option, so be it

      Airbus, oddly enough, would be another "American" option - maybe even more American than Boeing.

      When the US was looking at replacing it current generation of aerial refueling aircraft, Airbus' bid was more American based on "value". Both companies subcontract much of the work and not all of the subcontractor are in America or Europe. (I don't think the Mobile Alabama can produce the 380, but you never know what type of modifications they would make to win the contract.)

      If we Americans want to be the "best" and on the cutting edge we can rest on our laurels and hid behind "Buy American". Let the Europeans come and I will be happy – as long as we can bid on their president's plan. (or prime misters, or whatever)

    11. Re:track record by ganjadude · · Score: 5, Informative

      true, but with a 4 engine plane, if 1 fails, you are still good, if 2 fail, chances are you are still good. Ive even heard of 3 engines going down and a plane landing safely with 1 of 3 engines.

      your head of state needs safety and redundancy, not fuel economy

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    12. Re:track record by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 3, Insightful

      As a European, I agree. To the military I say: buy the best on the market, with a proven track record, with a slight bias for buying local. But for something as symbolic as Air Force 1, it makes sense to go for a domestic supplier. Especially as it's not a bad choice in this case.

      I kind of wonder why my own country went for totally unproven foreign F35 JSFs (yay budget overruns), then decided to get totally proven "domestic" NH90 helos. Proven to be crappy rustbuckets.

      --
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    13. Re:track record by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2

      I wondered that, too.

      In any case, Boeing saw no business case for larger planes, while tons of room for smaller, direct jets. More to more airports with less hub crap.

      The Airbus decision flabbergasted them. Officially, anyway. Cynics realized it was some European Union pride/multistate boondoggle as pieces were mandated to be made in most countries. Business case is irrelevant to politicians in such a situation. See also perennial money-loser SST.

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    14. Re:track record by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2, Funny

      I hear a presidential limo made from a Chevy Bolt, with an electric engine and no armor, is much more fuel efficient, too.

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    15. Re:track record by bws111 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Number of failures does not matter near as much as number of catastrophic faliures. If 'number of failures' was all that mattered nobody would ever use redundancy.

    16. Re:track record by ganjadude · · Score: 4, Informative
      that should read 1 of 4 engines http://articles.latimes.com/20...

      A British Airways jumbo jet lost power in an engine on takeoff from Los Angeles International Airport last month, but the pilot elected not to make an emergency landing for repairs, deciding instead to continue the 5,400-mile, transatlantic flight to London on the remaining three engines, officials said Monday.

      Because of unfavorable winds and inefficiencies resulting from the engine loss, the Boeing 747-400 burned more fuel than anticipated, and the pilot was forced to cut the nonstop flight short and land in Manchester, England, the airline said.

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    17. Re:track record by ganjadude · · Score: 3, Informative

      and of course i misread the article when trying to hurry up and post, that was about someone only losing one. Here is a forum of people discussing the issue however. mod my previous post down if you must http://www.airliners.net/aviat...

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    18. Re:track record by rwa2 · · Score: 2

      Also, Airbus refused to submit a proposal for this when approached several years ago (while there was no bidding process, basic proposals were requested from both Airbus and Boeing) because they knew it was a no contest decision.

      Does the contest have to come from Airbus though? The last big scandal for the KC-135 tanker replacement came from Northrup Grumman, who wanted to buy Airbus jets and refit them for for aerial refueling here in the US.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

      Of course, that was a much larger project with more money at stake.

    19. Re:track record by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Informative

      Fully aware of the KC-X contest, NG was the prime contractor but it was actually Airbus that did all the work.

      The KC-X contest was only ran because Boeing got caught firstly trying to lease replacement tankers to the USAF at a rate which was several times more than they cost to buy, and then Boeing got caught in the first round buying the Airbus bid details from the US DOD procurement officer in charge of the bids.

      Even with a US prime contractor and a US assembly line, there was massive uproar over the fact that Airbus had won the second round of bidding, before it got out back out to tender and Boeing magically found a way to make the 767 offering several billion dollars less than their previous bid...

      There is no way the US political arena would accept a non-American plane as AF1. Which raises an interesting problem when the next replacement comes round...

    20. Re:track record by Ichijo · · Score: 2

      A 767 once landed safely with 0 of 2 engines.

      As for takeoff, the weight limits are set so that the aircraft is capable of climbing at an adequate gradient...with one engine inoperative.

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    21. Re:track record by EndlessNameless · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Takeoff is the absolute worst time for an engine failure.

      They still made it from LAX to Manchester with a failed engine. That's pretty impressive.

      A dual-engine aircraft would not have fared nearly as well. The best expected outcome would be an emergency landing at the nearest airport.

      --

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    22. Re:track record by shadowrat · · Score: 2, Informative

      true, but with a 4 engine plane, if 1 fails, you are still good, if 2 fail, chances are you are still good. Ive even heard of 3 engines going down and a plane landing safely with 1 of 3 engines.

      So true. if 3 engines fail on a 2 engine plane, it pretty much destroys everything and resets the universe. a 4 engine plane is just the sane choice.

    23. Re:track record by ihtoit · · Score: 2

      the Antonov 225 has six engines. OK, there was only ever one built. BUT, its immediate predecessor, the AN-124, is a commercially available, fully configurable airlifter/cargo/passenger airframe, which remains the largest of its type in the world. 25% greater carrying capacity than the Lockheed C5 Galaxy.

      Ukrainian, for the win.

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    24. Re:track record by ihtoit · · Score: 5, Informative

      the Bentley Jubilee 2002 was built and furnished entirely in England. The engine is a Rolls Royce TT 6.75l V8 purpose-built in Derby. Coachwork and chassis assembled by hand in Crewe, and the furniture by Hield in West Yorkshire. It might be *owned* by Volkswagen but the manufacturing is entirely still British labour.

      --
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    25. Re:track record by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The issue is that the 3 planes being ordered would have to be built in the US, and it would not be cost-effective to build only 3 A380s in the US.

      dom

    26. Re: track record by fustakrakich · · Score: 5, Funny

      A four engine plane will land on no engines.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    27. Re: track record by afidel · · Score: 2

      Plus it's probably easier to add to the 747 Missle defense and reuse the radiation hardened avionics

      Yes to the first, no to the second. The 747-8 uses the 787 avionics suite which is an all digital setup, almost nothing is common between the old 747 and the 7474-8 from that perspective.

      --
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    28. Re:track record by Solandri · · Score: 4, Interesting

      If the two-engine planes are such a risk, how the hell have they got air safety certificates?

      Because the certification for twin-engine planes only looks at engine reliability and environmental factors like rain and hail. It doesn't consider being shot at with missiles and small arms fire, which is a required safety criteria for Air Force One.

    29. Re:track record by RightwingNutjob · · Score: 2

      Several 757s are configured for use as Air Force One when the President is going somewhere too small to handle a 747. Honestly, I think risk-averseness is driving the decision to stay with the 747 more than anything else. The president's plane has always been the biggest 4-engined Boeing built, and what's the point of changing that when you don't have to. Will it cost more than some other option? Maybe, but all things POTUS bleed cash anyway, so is it worth modifying a design that fits into a 747 now and having to debug it later for at best a marginal cost savings?

    30. Re:track record by Richard_at_work · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That entirely depends on the use you have for the aircraft - high oil price or not, no aircraft has the CASM of the A380 (not even the proposed 777X), which puts it in a league of its own. Consequently, the 747-8 falls foul to the 777 so the sole VLA competitor to the A380 would be killed by its own sibling...

      Oil can go through the roof, but if you can fill an A380 then thats the aircraft you need for the job. You can't shoehorn 600 into a 777 no matter how hard you try.

    31. Re:track record by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2

      The reason they landed at Manchester was not because they burned more fuel, but it was because they thought that the fuel on the outer wing tank on the wing that had the shut down engine on was inaccessible - this turned out to be false, they could have made it all the way to LHR without issue.

    32. Re:track record by iluvcapra · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah, but what political system made it possible for such a person to do that better than the richest nation of the planet?!

      The AC is sarcastic, but I'd point out that Elon Musk is a South African who got most of his education in Canada. As a matter of fact, of the five founders of PayPal listed on the Wiki page, only one of them is from the US...

      --
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    33. Re: track record by bobbied · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A four engine plane will land on no engines.

      Yes it will, but the more engines you have still running, the more options you have about exactly WHERE you land.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    34. Re:track record by garyebickford · · Score: 2

      Two and three engine planes are quite safe, but I suppose the President's plane is more likely to be the subject of hostile action that could take out one or more engines. Also I would think that the Secret Service would not want the President's plane to have to land suddenly at an unexpected emergency airport, which is generally OK for everyone else.

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    35. Re:track record by petermgreen · · Score: 2

      You can't shoehorn 600 into a 777 no matter how hard you try.

      Not to diminish your point (you were probablly talking about legality rather than feasability) but I expect you probablly could get over 600 passengers on a 777 if you were prepared to throw the safety rules out the window. el-al once put over a thousand people on a 747 http://www.guinnessworldrecord... . If we assume a similar ration of "maximum legal passenger capacity" to "maximum possible passenger capacity" then you should be able to stuff about 742 passengers on a 777.

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    36. Re: track record by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      Well gee, if you're gonna get picky...

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    37. Re: track record by paiute · · Score: 4, Funny

      "How far do you think we can get on one engine?

      "All the way to the crash site."

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    38. Re:track record by beltsbear · · Score: 4, Funny

      Etops:
      Engines
      Turn
      Or
      Passengers
      Swim

    39. Re:track record by beltsbear · · Score: 2

      They are not even close to stopping production of the 747. With the new 747-8 she has more then a decade of production left in her. Who knows, they may even do a -900 model in ten years.

    40. Re:track record by sootman · · Score: 2

      Thanks for the perfect setup for this old joke...

      On a four-engine plane over the Atlantic the pilot announces on the intercom, "Ladies and gentlemen, we've just lost an engine, but there's nothing to worry about. This plane flies perfectly well on three engines. It just reduces you speed a little so we'll be about a half-hour late."

      A few minutes later, another announcement: "Ladies and gentlemen, we've lost another engine. We'll still make it, but that'll slow us down a little more. We'll be about an hour late."

      Soon there's yet another message: "We've just lost power on a third engine. I think we'll be OK, but plan on being two hours late."

      One of the passengers turns to his neighbor and says, "I hope the fourth one doesn't quit. We'll be up here all day."

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    41. Re:track record by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 3, Informative

      The Soviet Union adopted with the AK-74 in 1974

      He was speaking about AK-74M, which was adopted in early 1990s.

      But anyway, even if you look at AK-74, it was already in many ways outdated back when it was introduced. Only two locking lugs, and not in a barrel extension, craptastic safety, slow iron sights, a large open gap in the receiver when bolt is closed permitting dust and dirt in, very inconvenient optics quick mount on the side rail (on AK-74M with its folding stock, if you use the rail, you can't fold the stock - WTF?) etc. Also pretty heavy in its basic configuration, and even heavier with optics because of that aforementioned side rail necessitating heavy mounts.

      A good example of a modern AK-derived design is SIG SG 550. Same basic action, but it uses modern layout, modern ergonomics, and is much more accurate and flexible while being every bit as reliable.

      and most Eastern European and former Soviet Republics use it today.

      Most Soviet republics - true, but which of them are "allies"?

      Most Eastern European states - not really true anymore, and wasn't really true even when USSR was still there. The only two I can think of that still use AK chambered in 5.45 round are Bulgaria and Romania (and for Romania it's not AK-74, but their own independently developed variant), and both are looking at options to migrate to, generally in 5.56 for NATO conformance. Poland uses the 5.56 Beryl, also not derived from AK-74, and significantly improved compared to the latter. All ex-Yugoslavian states either still use the original AK chambered in 7.62, or else have migrated to something in 5.56 (e.g. FN F2000 for Slovenia or VHS in Croatia). Czechs and Slovaks have both used their indigenous Vz.58 until recently, and are now switching to CZ-805. Hungarians use their own FEG AK variant, also in 7.62. Albanians use the original AKM. Did I forget anyone?

      The only nation states I know of that still use the old AK-47 are in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia (including, I think, India). The big advantage of the AK-47 is that it is cheap enough to hand out like candy to guerrilla fighters, and it's reliable enough to still work after years of little to no maintenance (though it's effectiveness drops quite a lot when doing so).

      Well, you kinda lump them together - it's not like there are a few nations in Middle East or Africa, and a great many of them use AK. But, as noted, in Europe, you're looking at least at Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Albania and Hungary. And if you look at who else uses AK-derived guns chambered in 7.62x39, you'll have to also add Czech Republic and Slovakia (tho not for long) and Finland.

      FWIW, I don't see the point of differentiation. AK-74 is only marginally different from AKM in matters other than caliber (and muzzle brake, but that can be easily retrofitted). All ergos are the same, reliability is the same, and all deficiencies are also the same.

      In any case, I don't see why anyone in a sane mind would adopt AK-74M as a new service rifle in 2015. There are far better options available for anyone not sorely short on cash and not running a guerrilla army.

      I mean, sure, you could take AK-74 and modernize it - make the receiver cover non-detachable so that a rail can be put on top, replace handguards with rails or something else allowing different mounts, replace leaf sight with a peep, replace the safety with a switch that can be manipulated by a thumb, replace the stock with folding and length-adjustable one that also has a cheek riser for better weld.

      Russians did just that in their own modernization program, and the result is now known as AK-12 and is undergoing trials. Though it has a bunch of other changes (like lightened bolt) that are suspect wrt reliability, especially given the results of the trials so far.

      But then again, unless you're short on cash, you could just get SG 551, which was designed with all those things in mind from ground up.

    42. Re:track record by Dahamma · · Score: 2

      The Galaxy is utterly different than a passenger plane like the 747.

      Significantly slower, worse safety record, horribly worse range (you don't want to be in-flight refueling every 2500 miles), and in no way adapted to a 2-level, passenger focused layout they obviously want in "Air Force One". Not to mention the last C-5 was built in 1989. They just don't want to recondition a 25 year old plane as the flagship aircaft of the United States...

    43. Re:track record by arglebargle_xiv · · Score: 2

      You can't shoehorn 600 into a 777 no matter how hard you try.

      Yes you can, you just can't get them out again in the same shape/form they went in.

    44. Re:track record by Carewolf · · Score: 2

      As a European, I agree. To the military I say: buy the best on the market, with a proven track record, with a slight bias for buying local.

      Slight? It has to be either local, maintainable local, spare-parts generally available or from an ally so close that if you ever break up you are pretty much fucked anyway.

    45. Re:track record by ratbag · · Score: 2

      and all other UK cars are no longer UK

      That's a slight overstatement. Whilst we focus on the niche end of car production, the following companies, inter alia, are still UK-owned and doing quite nicely:

      Noble
      Westfield
      Caterham
      (Bristol - not doing so well...)
      Morgan
      Ultima
      McLaren
      Ginetta
      Caparo (really very niche)
      Lightning

      Not sure old Queeny would want to be driven in any of those, though. Her Majesty's R620 (http://uk.caterhamcars.com/cars/seven-620-r) would certainly make for rapid meet-the-peoples.

      The UK also provides much of the engineering expertise and componentry used by the rest of the motor industry. Motor sports throughout the world are similarly dependent on the UK's engineers, even your IndyCars have been known to use UK-produced power plants and gearboxes.

  2. Last 2 planes? by Nidi62 · · Score: 2

    So...$1.65 billion to buy the planes from Boeing, and how many millions per year to have Boeing keep a tooling line up for spare parts?

    --
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    1. Re:Last 2 planes? by TWX · · Score: 4, Informative

      The entire point in using a massively successful commercial platform for this kind of thing is that spare parts will continue to be in production for decades to support the huge customer base. Even if the -8 has a limited run compared to other 747s, it's not like they've dropped support for the SP even though it too was only built in limited numbers.

      As for why the 747 could be discontinued, at least for awhile; there's an upper limit on the number of superjumbos needed on the planet, and I expect that we're probably not far from that point. So long as the current fleet continues to operate safely then there's simply no need to produce more planes. As the current fleet wears though, eventually new replacements will be needed for those routes where moving this many passengers makes sense, especially if the manufacturers can get the efficiency up. That's part of what's eating into the superjumbos; the ability for multiple flights a day with smaller planes to get equal fuel economy per passenger and at the same time offer more flexibility (ie more than one flight per day) due to the use of smaller planes.

      My wife used to fly fifteen times a year. There was one city that she flew to the most, and she chose the airline with the most daily flights because airlines will often move one up to an earlier flight or two that same day if there's empty space, because they can sell the seats on the later flights to last-minute purchasers. She could come home four or eight hours early if she was done early and didn't need to be there anymore. An airline flying two or three 777s or A320s per day offers her more flexibility than one flying one 747 or one A380, and that's worth something.

      --
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    2. Re:Last 2 planes? by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Informative

      There will be hundreds of 747s flying for the next three to four decades, so parts are not an issue - Boeing makes the majority of its money on aftermarket care and parts, they won't close those lines down fast.

    3. Re:Last 2 planes? by Idarubicin · · Score: 4, Informative

      So...$1.65 billion to buy the planes from Boeing, and how many millions per year to have Boeing keep a tooling line up for spare parts?

      Since airlines were still ordering new 747-8s (the platform on which the new Air Force One(s) would be built) in 2014 - and might still continue to do so - this isn't exactly an obsolete aircraft. I mean, the first 747-8s weren't delivered to customers until 2011. There are still-flying 747-variant fuselages in commercial (passenger and freight) service that have been in the air since the late 1970s and early 1980s. Based on that history, it seems likely that Boeing will need to support its commercial customers through to at least 2045 or so.

      --
      ~Idarubicin
    4. Re:Last 2 planes? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

      Planes last pretty much forever if you want them to. I'm part owner of a 1957 DeHavilland DHC-1 Beaver. It's only three years newer than I am. It's much easier to buy replacement parts for the it than me.

      --
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  3. Not going to disappear quickly.... by outlander · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Even if Boeing stopped building 747 variants tomorrow, they'd be around for ages. They're the mainstay for long-haul travel, and dwindling sales probably are more related to market saturation - as in, there are enough in the air now to meet current demand - than any inherent shortcoming in the design.

    I suspect that there are more refinements to come - it's just too useful an airframe to discard. It may take Boeing a bit to roll in some of the working dreamliner tech but it seems reasonable that they'd try to do that when time and demand permit.

    --
    "Truth is what works" -- William James "It works!!" -- o-dark-AM comment
    1. Re:Not going to disappear quickly.... by darkmeridian · · Score: 4, Informative

      Based on Wikipedia, the freighter variant of the 747-8 is unexpectedly popular. The 747 already dominates the civilian air freighter market so it's a good bet the 747-8 will be around for a very long time, if only due to the numerous freighter versions being operated around the world.

      --
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    2. Re:Not going to disappear quickly.... by Hadlock · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Old 747s have terrible fuel economy which is their highest operating cost, plus they have to be completely torn down (seats out, overhead bins out) for a complete airframe inspection, engines rebuilt etc every 6 years or so and it costs millions of dollars to do this "frame off restoration" with qualified FAA certified mechanics. After the fourth or so complete restoration the cost-benefit ratio slips in favor of buying a whole new airplane. This isn't like buying a pickup truck for personal use which you can just drive until the wheels fall off, swap in a new rear axle and drive it another 500,000 miles without ever doing a proper inspection of the frame, wheel bearings, etc.
       
      In addition to the major overhauls, they do slightly less major overhauls every 4 years, and they still do a full 2 day inspection every 18 months or so.
       
      Eventually these old 747s get sold for a song because the maintenance to keep them flying isn't worth it. There's a 747 in the background at the Top Gear test track (which is a converted airfield) that is parked most of the time or used as a prop for movies but is still airworthy when someone needs an extra cargo jet, or needs to fly a football team to Australia or something for top dollar. But they're not economical for daily use by major commercial airliners anymore.

      --
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    3. Re:Not going to disappear quickly.... by jonwil · · Score: 2

      Looking at Wikipedia, Korean Air, Arik Air, Air China and Transaero have also ordered the 747-8 along with sales of 9 aircraft to what Boeing labels "business jet/VIP" (i.e. sales to entities that aren't airlines). Order numbers for the passenger variant aren't that far behind the numbers for the freight variant.

      The older 747s are going away because they are inefficient and expensive to run and maintain. But the -8 contains technology from their latest aircraft like the 787 and the 737-9 to make it more fuel efficient and cheaper to run (being newer, the maintanence costs are probably lower too)

    4. Re:Not going to disappear quickly.... by Solandri · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Even if Boeing stopped building 747 variants tomorrow, they'd be around for ages. They're the mainstay for long-haul travel, and dwindling sales probably are more related to market saturation - as in, there are enough in the air now to meet current demand - than any inherent shortcoming in the design.

      An individual airframe is typically retired before 100,000 pressurization cycles. This is a limitation of the aluminum used to make the skin, which unlike other ferrous metals does not have a fatigue limit. In other words, aluminum always grows weaker with use. As you get closer to 100,000 cycles, you increase the odds of a catastrophic fatigue failure where the aluminum literally unzips like plastic shrinkwrap after you've cut a notch in it. (Aloha 243 had nearly 90,000 cycles due to its short-duration island-hopping history.)

      The 747 is typically used on long-haul overseas flights lasting 10+ hours. This drastically reduces the rate at which airlines can rack up pressurization cycles. Even if one were flown 2x a day every day, it would take over 130 years to reach 100,000 cycles. By comparison, a 737 used for the 40-minute LAX to Las Vegas route may fly 10x a day and reach 100,000 cycles in a little over 25 years. This is why 747s are hanging around - their skins simply have less wear and tear on them despite being in service for more years and logging more flight hours than other planes.

      The 747-8 was always a bit dodgy. When Boeing made the original 747, they weren't planning to make it with a partial second deck. It was supposed to be a stepping stone to future models with a full second deck (designing the 747 nearly bankrupted the company). Boeing pitched the full two-decker model to the airlines for decades but could never get enough interest to justify actually building it. Then Airbus came with its "who cares if we'll sell enough to make money, our governments will pay for it if it doesn't so let's build it" A380, and Boeing threw together the 747-8 as a possible alternative.

      The slow rate of A380 sales (nearly 10 years old, 318 orders, 147 deliveries) seems to substantiate Boeing's marketing research that there just wasn't sufficient demand (yet) for such a large plane. By comparison, the 747-400 had 465 deliveries in its first 10 years. The 747-8 has 119 orders, 83 deliveries in the same timeframe as the A380. As you state, in the 400-525 passenger category, the market is pretty well-saturated by older 747s which are still airworthy.

      I suspect that there are more refinements to come - it's just too useful an airframe to discard. It may take Boeing a bit to roll in some of the working dreamliner tech but it seems reasonable that they'd try to do that when time and demand permit.

      In terms of airline operating economics, the number of passenger per flight nearly always has a larger magnitude of effect than efficiency gains for new technology. For an airline you are almost always nearly best-off flying a plane with slightly more capacity than the number of passengers. Airbus tried to claim the A380 would be so efficient this wouldn't matter, and you could fly a 747-sized number of passengers on a A380 for cheaper than a 747. I was very skeptical, and the fact that airlines aren't tripping over themselves to replace their old 747s with A380s is a pretty good indication that it's still cheaper to fly a 747 for 747-sized passenger capacities.

      The next place to watch is to see if Airbus will roll out a twin-engine competitor to the 777 (maybe a longer A350-1000?). Airbus' competitor to the 777 had been the A340 (both are in the 300-450 passenger range). But the A340 is a 4-engine plane which uses much more fuel. Consequently, the 777 beat the A340 into a bloody pulp in the market. The 777 has had 1827 orders in 20 years, vs 379 orders

  4. Re: Big Surprise by AK+Marc · · Score: 3

    So they could whine about all the protectionism in the US, to justify their own protectionism.

  5. Re:No it isn't by tnk1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I don't think any other country is unduly concerned about us not opening up bids on a project like AF1. It's one or two planes. The symbolic value of the plane is significant, and honestly, isn't really what is beggaring the country.

    No foreign corporation is going to seriously complain that they didn't get to build the one plane for the head of state for another country over a local builder.

    The symbolic requirement isn't good enough to force the rest of the government to buy all Boeing, but unless the 747-8 was a complete pile of shit or twice the price of the comparable Airbus model, that one plane is not really a big deal.

  6. Re:777 by bws111 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And, 2 engines are actually more reliable than 4 - less that can go wrong.

    Right, which is why nobody would ever buy a server with 2 power supplies when 1 will do. Nobody would ever build a cluster of low power systems rather than using a single high power machine, etc.

  7. Re:777 by ClickOnThis · · Score: 3

    And, 2 engines are actually more reliable than 4 - less that can go wrong.

    No.

    Let p be the probability of one engine failing during a typical flight. We can assume p is a very small number, because the engines are designed and maintained well.

    The probability of both engines failing on a 2-engine aircraft is p^2, an even smaller number. The probability of all 4 engines failing on a 4-engine aircraft is p^4, a number that is even smaller still than p^2. So, having 4 engines instead of 2 reduces the probability of all engines failing, and makes the plane more reliable.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  8. Re:Total disservice to taxpayers by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

    The Airbus A-380 is about 20% less costly than the 747-8. They're wasting taxpayer money as usual.

    So you think that flight time costs have much all to do with the total bill for shuttling the president of the United States around?

    You need to get out more often.

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    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  9. Would a smaller plane do? by SlickNic · · Score: 2

    This seems like an obvious question but why does one guy and his staff need a more than 400 passenger plane? Wouldn't something built for extended flight time, reliability, and speed that held closer to 75 or 100 passengers still be overkill? I certainly don't know a lot about airplanes so maybe a better alternative simply doesn't exist and this was the best option. Are there better 100 passenger options?

    --
    Saying "all faiths are equivalent" is akin to saying "all drugs are the same".
  10. Re:I think they should make him fly coach by ChunderDownunder · · Score: 2

    Cone of Silence?

  11. caveat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Your Beaver is NOT pressurized. Airliners have airframes whose service lives are based in part on the number of pressurizations/depressurizations. Every time the airliner ascends it inflates a bit like a balloon and when it descends it contracts again, and each of these cycles not only stresses the Aluminum skin generally but it specifically stresses any area around a hole (like around rivet holes and large holes like doors and windows).

    This is why a B-25, for example, can be kept flying forever but a pressurized airliner will eventually be scrapped. Again, this is not based on airfarme age in years, but rather in cycles. There are still 727's flying today - but they are ones that flew infrequent long flights rather than lots of short hops (those airframes becale razor blades long ago). These pressure cycles can lead to a relatively young (in years) airframe failing if that airframe makes lots of short hops, like between Hawaiian islands as with Aloha 243

  12. Why not a C17 by rossdee · · Score: 2

    Why not convert a C17 - its more manoueverable, and can use smaller airfields