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NASA: Increasing Carbon Emissions Risk Megadroughts
An anonymous reader writes: Droughts in the western U.S. have been bad recently, but not as bad as they could be. Researchers from NASA, Cornell, and Columbia are now warning that if we don't slow the rate at which we produce greenhouse gases, then we're dramatically increasing our odds of a drought that lasts upwards of three decades. "The scientists were interested in megadroughts that took place between 1100 and 1300 in North America. These medieval-period droughts, on a year-to-year basis, were no worse than droughts seen in the recent past. But they lasted, in some cases, 30 to 50 years. When these past megadroughts are compared side-by-side with computer model projections of the 21st century, both the moderate and business-as-usual emissions scenarios are drier, and the risk of droughts lasting 30 years or longer increases significantly."
while those poor old dark ages folk didn't and look what happened to them! They burned and burned and burned and, so, history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man.
But then Correlation vs Causation doesn't often exist. Since mankind was not causing mega-droughts in the 1100-1300 era, what leads us to think it is now carbon emissions causing droughts? Could it be other long term Solar variation & then seawater circulation issues that reappear regularly on long cycles.
Then when data appears to be tweaked in some field measurements or too sparse, it seems that unjustified claims are being made that can't be backed by solid science.
This. Science is a process of progressive refinement, with occasional revolutionary paradigm-changes. Newer, broader understandings of nature almost invariably extend previous work, instead of replacing it.
A good example of the evolution of scientific thought can be found in this essay by Isaac Asimov. TL;DR:
- We used to think the earth was flat. We found out this was an accurate view for short distances, but failed for longer ones.
- Then we thought the earth was spherical. This also was an accurate view for many purposes, but more precise measurements revealed that the earth bulges at the equator due to its rotation.
- Then we thought the earth was an oblate spheroid. This view held until satellites revealed irregularities in the earth's gravitational field due to very slightly larger bulging in the southern hemisphere.
The point is that each successive refinement of our understanding of the earth's shape did not render previous concepts "completely wrong." Rather, it revealed limits on their applicability.
If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
It's definitely not falsifiable with the red herrings and ad hominems you're using.
But keep trying. Maybe you'll have a breakthrough.
From reading your comments since you created your Slashdot account a few weeks ago, I get the feeling that before we're done here, you're going to be calling climate scientists, "SJWs". That might help make you're point, or at least clarify for the rest of us how seriously we should take your comments.
You are welcome on my lawn.
I learned this from the global warming alarmist alarmist:
Hold all climate forecasts to higher standards than financial reports.
Equate all predictions as equal to the one with the worst case scenario.
Interpret all forecast as paranoia that the world is ending.
Never offer explanations as to why releasing significant amounts of known greenhouse gasses won't disrupt the climate society is adapted to.
Note that the earth has been much hotter...at a time that was not conducive to human society
Note that the earth has been much colder...at a time that was not conducive to human society
Claim humans can adapt to anything but ignore the fact that when they need to do it within a few generations, most of them will die.
Reading the posts here saddens me. All this hate on climate research telling that NASA is only interested in more funding (sound like MY TAX DOLLARS!!!!), or that man made climate change is a hoax comments, or the science was wrong in the past. This only tells me that all this poster do not understand science or don't want to understand science. And that a deep conservatism has hit the US. So while we try to change our impact on climate and in general on natural resources, you will continue to pollute the world. Too bad that we have to life on the same planet.