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No Tech Bubble Here, Says CNN: "This Time It's Different."

Posted by timothy on from the don't-forget-apple dept.

ErichTheRed writes I saw this on the Money page of CNN today. Apparently, various stock analysts have declared that this run-up in stock prices is different than the 1999 version. OK, we don't have the pets.com sock puppet, Webvan or theglobe.com anymore, but when Uber is given a valuation of $40 billion, can a crash be far behind?

10 of 252 comments (clear)

  1. Fool me once, shame on you... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...Fool me twice, shame on me.

    This is wise advice when discussing the Wall Street crowd.

    1. Re:Fool me once, shame on you... by MrBigInThePants · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If the "fools" with money realized this then there would be no bubble. But it is easy to make a call when you do not stand to gain or lose from any of it since you are not in the market at all, isn't it?

      If you invested in the "bubbling" Uber earlier and sold out now you would be anything other than poor or stupid. As long as you get out before the burst, you win.

      Also remember the fools with money are often not the ones making the decisions and giving the advice.
      The finance industry is funded on churn and stock fluctuations. They win on the way up AND often on the way down (overall, I am not talking about individual traders or trades).
      It is highly possible that Goldman Ballsacks will be investing people's money heavily into these stocks while betting against the stocks with other money as the bubble goes - just like they did during the last one.

      But the question is NEVER what HAS happened, it is always what is going to happen in the future and roughly when. Most people fail HARD at this and should really just STFU because they have no idea what they are talking about.

      Just waving your hand about predicting doom "sometime" hardly counts as insight in this sort of market.

  2. Round and round. by MouseTheLuckyDog · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I remember in 1998 hearing the experts all say "This time it's different we won't crash."

  3. Re:Oh i think its overvalued but its much differen by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The reason I would avoid Uber stock is their business model falls foul of the law in most of the countries where they operate, only a matter of time until they are shut down. A comparison to Kazza's business model would be more apt than snapchat but I agree the eyeball market is saturated these days.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  4. Isn't the difference by aliquis · · Score: 4, Insightful

    In that the companies make money this time?

    Google seem to be traded at P/E 26 (Google finance, assume that's on actual profits and not ideas for the future) which is pretty reasonable. The interest environment is shit and Google at least have an urge to do new products. Whatever they will always be the search and information gathering giant I guess one could question.

    Facebook mean-while is valued at P/E 75 which is way higher.
    Do I trust or care Facebook even remotely as much as Google?
    No I don't.
    I don't care for Facebook at all. So do their social platform deserve that? Then again at least they have made more money than before.

    Something like Microsoft is 17.7 so whetever. H&M is 30 as comparison. Sure there's a bigger market to sell clothes to but there's a bigger one for Microsoft products too :).

    1. Re:Isn't the difference by Aighearach · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There is sure a lot of hate. And I can understand it to a certain extent; I've been running ad-blockers consistently since the 90s. I used to have doubleclick in my hosts file to reduce the filter load, too.

      But google is the only ad company that doesn't sell your info. I hear a lot of people just shouting randomly that they are "evil," but without any real reasons. They discontinue services that I used to rely on, which is their right, and as a result I'm unlikely to adopt new services. But there is nothing evil about that, it is a straightforwards application of their own prerogatives.

      All the other ad companies sell information about you. All of them. Google is the only one with the reach to even try to offer what they do, which is a system where the advertisers can target ads without any information about the targets. They are clearly way less evil than the other ad companies.

      If you're going to host and run your own email, then obviously you can have more power over it. But using another corporate email provider will rarely protect any data, since you're already with the company that doesn't sell data about you. Just about everybody else does sell data, including companies that don't sell advertising. Even my mechanic leaked my phone number to some random company so they could send a TXT spam.

      Just wave your hands shouting "evil" while you switch to companies that sell their data on you. That'll teach `em!

    2. Re:Isn't the difference by AdamHaun · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If your primary security concern is a federal subpoena, you have already made far greater errors than picking the wrong email provider.

      --
      Visit the
  5. Re:Reality Flip Switch by trout007 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Nope. Booms work when the Fed floods Wall St with cash. It has to go somewhere? It ends when the realization hits and the 40:1 leveraged accounts go bust.

    Then it's time for the tax payers to bail them out and start over.

    --
    I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
  6. Re: Gotta look at the source... by Aighearach · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You only lost your 401k if you cashed it out while the market was in the dumps. If you'd have left it where it was, like you were supposed to do, then it would have increased in value.

    You're also supposed to shift your stock investments out into money market or other low-risk devices about 8 years before you plan to retire, so that the timing of the market fluctuations doesn't leave you screwed.

    You see the game being rigged because you drank the propaganda and believed that when the market goes down, 401k accounts some evaporate. But they don't.

  7. Re: Gotta look at the source... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And in your estimation how many millions of non-expert "investors" also didn't perform "correctly" with their retirement funds.

    You can place blame wherever you like, but the reality of a very broke generation of retires-who-can't-retire isn't going anywhere,

    While at the same time, Wall Street has never in history been this wealthy compared to median income. And the gap between haves and have nots now far exceeds where it was in the roaring 20's.

    Something is wrong, and what is wrong in hhtis particular case is that we are staving off collapse at the expense of a generation of savers (who can no longer buy annuities) -- and to the benefit of the 1% who will gladly sell them high risk paper of 100 different flavors.

    Collapse is not only good, it's vital.