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Pakistan Builds Nuclear Reactors In Karachi, Sparking Fears of Disaster

schwit1 writes World leaders have fretted for years that terrorists may try to steal one of Pakistan's nuclear bombs and detonate it in a foreign country. But some Karachi residents say the real nuclear nightmare is unfolding here in Pakistan's largest and most volatile city. Of all places to locate a nuclear reactor, they argue, who could possibly make a case for this one — on an earthquake-prone seafront vulnerable to tsunamis and not far from where al-Qaeda militants nearly hijacked a Pakistan navy vessel last fall.

28 of 122 comments (clear)

  1. It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by tp1024 · · Score: 5, Informative

    This must be the most moronic article I've read in a long time.

    3/4 of the way down the text it says the only relevant piece of information: "Minhaj said concerns about the effect of a tsunami are also overblown because the new reactors are being built on a rock ledge about 39 feet above sea level."

    That's 12m above the sea. The tsunami generated by a mag 9.0 earthquake is expected to be between 0.9m and 7m high - so the plant will have 5m margin ABOVE THE WORST CASE.

    Shut up everyone, you've been lied to.

    1. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What actually happened. It was known it could have happened. Nobody gave a fuck. The National Academy of Sciences reported a couple of years ago and said that the problem was ignoring the unlikely scenarios even if it was known that they were possible.

      A tsunami that high is not seen as a possible scenario, likely or unlikely.

      And the "regional instability" thing is just the West not liking anyone else aspiring to approach it. You know what'll stop backward hicks like ISIS? Technical and social advance, not deliberately holding countries back because they're seen by the World Policemen as too primitive to handle whatever.

    2. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by tp1024 · · Score: 4, Informative

      There was none. They used the 1960 tsunami in Japan for reference in Fukushima Daiichi (unlike e.g. Onagawa) - which reached a height of 4.5m. This tsunami was caused by the 1960 Chile earthquake on the other side of the planet, across the pacific.

      Yes, baseline nuclear safety in Japan was that crappy - most operators went way beyond the baseline, but at least one didn't.

    3. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by MrL0G1C · · Score: 3, Insightful

      https://www.google.co.uk/searc...

      leads to:

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new...

      132.5foot = 40.4meters, that's a bit more than 0.9m or 12m. Normal waves can reach 10m in many places.

      Perhaps you should 'shut-up' and check your facts.

      And for good measure:
      Pakistan-earthquake-2013-creates-new-18m-high-island-Gwadar-coast-Arabian-Sea

      And
      https://books.google.co.uk/boo...
      ""The trading towns of Pasni and Ormara, Pakistan, located 100 km away from the epicentre, were flooded by a ~15.0m high wall of water""

      Still think it's a good place to put a nuclear reactor?

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    4. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by zm · · Score: 4, Informative

      A brand new 21st century reactor != Fukushima Daiichi 1960 BWR design. Nor 1950's RBMK design for that matter. Misleading panicky comparisons lead nowhere.

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    5. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by tp1024 · · Score: 5, Informative

      The nuclear power plants will be ACP1000s. There is half a century of experience between the ACP1000 and the BWR-3/4 used in Fukushima Daiichi. And wouldn't you know it, there have been improvements in the meantime!

      http://www.nucnet.org/all-the-...

      It's a combined passive and active design, it doesn't need power to cool the reactor or the containment, but it has powered cooling systems in addition to the passive ones. -> NOT FUKUSHIMA.
      A backup generator that is above the Tsunami will not be flooded and will not fail because of flooding because it isn't being flooded. -> NOT FUKUSHIMA.
      An emergency stop of a nuclear reacto needs cooling or it will melt the core, which is being provided for in a much more adequate fashion than in Fukushima. -> NOT FUKUSHIMA.
      The ACP1000 is a pressurized reactor in a large dry containment, that can contain a molten core without overpressurizing the containment. It is not a small "pressure supression" containment that has been known since at least 1966 to be unable to contain a molten core - which is a statement made by none other than the vendor, General Electric. -> NOT FUKUSHIMA.

    6. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by tp1024 · · Score: 2

      Be careful, a Japanese tsunami might flood New York!

      Tsunamis can be very tall in very specific places, depending on the geometry. Which is something you could have figured out by yourself, because the article is extremely specific "Omoeaneyoshi district of Miyako City, in Iwate Prefecture".

      The point where the nuclear power plant will be build is not a place like the Omoeaneyoshi district of Miyako City, in Iwate Prefecture - which is not at all surprising, because such places are rare. And by the way, Pasni is about 350km way from Karachi. Ormara is 250km away. Their geography bears no relationship wih Karachi.

    7. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      IUTBATM... I used to be a tsunami modeler.

      There isn't a 1:1 relationship between earthquake magnitude and runup. There are some rules of thumb, but it depends on the faults in the area, if there is risk of landslides, the geometry of the ocean floor, the topography around the power plant, if the risk comes more from local earthquakes or ones on the other side of the ocean basin....

      Hopefully, whoever quoted the numbers for Pakistan has already done the study for the region; I haven't worked too much in that region myself so I don't know numbers offhand. But that 40m you mention was in a very specific location (plus, can't you even cite slashdot? http://science-beta.slashdot.org/story/14/09/27/0225233/underwater-landslide-may-have-doubled-2011-japanese-tsunami )

      For reference, if you hear a number, hopefully they've already done such a study... usually takes one or three people a few months to a few years to do a thorough analysis (plus depending on the model, could be a fair amount of computer time), depending on how important the project is. And if it's below about a 7.5, there is usually no tsunami risk except maybe locally at the source.

    8. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by MrL0G1C · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You know the other reactor built to withstand a Tsunami - Yeah, Fukushima, they said there would never be a Tsunami big enough to do it any harm. Was it true? No.

      Karachi is exposed to tsunami's coming from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. To say the geography bears no resemblance when the places mentioned are geographically nearby on the same coast is quite frankly absurd - India was hit by 11meter tsunami from the same earthquake that wiped away Pakistani towns and the whole area is seismically active.

      Map of last 40 years earthquakes only:
      http://ds.iris.edu/ieb/index.h...

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    9. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by budgenator · · Score: 2

      You do realize the height of a tsunami is dependant on the wavelength of the wave and the depth of the seafloor, that means the same wave can produce drastically different wave heights at different locations.

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    10. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by itzly · · Score: 4, Informative

      You know what'll stop backward hicks like ISIS? Technical and social advance

      Keep dreaming. People who are eager to destroy 6000 year old artefacts aren't interested in your technical and social advance.

    11. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by Gavagai80 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's exactly the point. They destroy tech and education and social artifacts because they know that the more desperate and hopeless and disconnected the people feel, the more of them will turn to extremism and the easier the rest will be to control.

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    12. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by MrL0G1C · · Score: 4, Informative

      A tsunami that high is not seen as a possible scenario

      The tide varies by over 2.5m
      Normal waves can reach over 10m in height.
      The reactor is built at only 12m above sea level !!!
      The same coast of Pakistan has already had a 15m tsunami in the last century.
      The India Ocean produced a 30meter Tsunami just a decade ago.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      So, it doesn't sound so impossible to me, I don't hear of anyone actually having modeled various earthquake tsunami scenarios for Karachi.

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    13. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by tp1024 · · Score: 2

      Next time you need antibiotics - you won't get them.
      Next time you're in a car accident - you airbag won't inflate, your seatbelts won't be there, your windshild will be made from ordinary glass, your car's chassis will be stiff.
      Next time want to eat, you won't get anything, because there's not enough natural fertilizer, there's no way to combat crop pests, there'll be only horses and oxen to pull the plow and you better get fit for threshing the grain.

      I could go on.

    14. Re:It be 12m above sea - max Tsunami: 7m by tp1024 · · Score: 2

      Yes, but this initial window is several days long. Typically 3 days, but the actual amount of time is a matter of the concrete design being build. This depends on the rules under which the design is finalized and the safety margins the rules call for.

      After that it is only a matter of refilling the water tank of the heat-exchangers (which serves as heat-sink), which you can do with regular fire fighting pumps using water lines installed when the containment gets build. No helicopter stunts will be needed. You can also use whatever water you can get hold of - including sea water. It's just a heat sink outside the containment, the water doesn't get anywhere near the reactor.

  2. Re:In Karachi? by circletimessquare · · Score: 5, Informative

    new orleans

    Population (2013)[1]
        City and Parish 378,715 (US: 51st)
        Metro 1,240,977 (US: 45th)

    karachi

    Population (2013)
        Total 23,500,000[1]
        Rank 1st (Pakistan), 2nd (World)

    new orleans is a cute little rural suburb compared to karachi

    having driven to new orleans a number of times, i've seen myself that 20 miles out from new orleans it is nothing but scrub and mangroves. i can understand within new orleans itself you feel like you are in a dense city, because there's nothing else around, and you're the center of that area of the country. but this is a provincial judgment

    world cities are mind blowing compared to american cities

    here in new york city, a huge fucking megacity by usa standards but a puny light weight by world standards, 20 miles out is still dense and urban

    Population (2013)[5]
        Total 8,405,837[1]
        Rank 1st, U.S., 24th (World)

    so: 20 miles from the city center of karachi is still pretty much in the middle of dense giant fucking karachi

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

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  3. Re:Who? by loufoque · · Score: 2

    Unfortunately, for that kind of decision political and economical factors are more important than technical ones.

  4. pakistani military is known for professionalism by circletimessquare · · Score: 4, Insightful

    but some of their loyalties are divided, and in secret

    and with so much sectarian hatred, political instability, and poverty in that country, i fear that the most probable scenario for a purposeful nuclear attack in this world (so not accidental, probably plant sabotage) will be in pakistan

    i don't think the west has anything to fear. i think india does somewhat. but i think pakistanis have the most to fear by far

    there is a lot of bloodlust over there. and not the random yahoo kind, but the organized sectarian kind

    i fear for you pakistan

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  5. Re:In Karachi? by circletimessquare · · Score: 4, Interesting

    that is precisely what the powers-that-be want

    paklistan is full of conspiratorial minded morons

    every tragedy or event in pakistan, where pakistanis can face their shortcomings, come to grips with it, and move forward: nope. instead loopy hilarious conspiracies that shifts blame to the west, to the jews, to india, to iran, etc. keeps them mired in poverty, backwardness, blind denial, strife, and stupidity. every problem in pakistan is never the fault of pakistanis, it's all due to plots and secret cabals and manipulations from abroad. fucking ignorant bullsit

    here in the west we can safely laugh at paranoid schizophrenic low iq conspiracy minded douchebags. such losers are everywhere in the world. but a free society with free speech and a free press, the full light of day reveals their delusional rantings, they are ridiculed, and they are safely exiled to the backseat of the short bus and only are compelling to weak minded ignorant halfwits

    but in countries where lies, censorship, prideful ethnic and sectarian denial, etc. dominates, the mental diarrhea of conspiracies has a great power and takes hold in that darkness of no free thought, no free press, no free speech

    so when i see you write "that is precisely what the powers-that-be want", all i think is yup: there's another fucking problem with pakistan: conspiracy theory nutcases everywhere

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  6. Re:In Karachi? by bluegutang · · Score: 2

    The Karachi and NY metro areas are of similar size, but NY has a much lower density overall. Yes, Manhattan is super-dense, but most of the NY metro by geographic area is sprawling suburbs in Long Island and NJ. Karachi suburbs extend about 20km in every direction, NY suburbs extend about 60km in every direction, if you look at Google Maps. You can also see that for an 8km radius around this nuclear facility, there is almost no population.

  7. Re:In Karachi? by circletimessquare · · Score: 2

    http://www.city-data.com/forum...

    20 miles is about yonkers to manhattan on this map

    all directions, 20 mile radius, and well beyond, is dense and urban, except for the meadowlands:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...

    http://www.census.gov/populati...

    The urban fringe generally consists of contiguous territory having a density of at least 1,000 persons per square mile.

    sure, it's not 60 story skyscrapers every block, but by the definition of urban, it is urban, all around nyc, for well beyond 20 miles, except for swamps

    as for the karachi nuke site, i see a very large urban center just to the north of the complex on google earth

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  8. Re:In Karachi? by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Informative

    so: 20 miles from the city center of karachi is still pretty much in the middle of dense giant fucking karachi

    You use a lot of fancy numbers but really all you needed to do was look at a map. These reactors are being built in the middle of nowhere (or rather the edge of nowhere since it's on the waterfront). The reactors are not 20 miles from the city centre rather they are actually about 15 miles from the boundary.

    Better still these nice modern reactors with all their modern safety standards and passive safety systems and an inherently safer design are being built in an existing complex next to a set of existing 1970s era reactors. The article even has a picture of the existing plant.

    This is colossal FUD, and they should be welcoming the addition of GenIII reactors so they can eventually transition away from the older ones which actually may be a problem if something seriously goes wrong.

  9. Re:In Karachi? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

    Wouldn't that be 40 km? I thought you people were civilized.

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  10. Bin Laden, Bushes, money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Bin Laden was a CIA asset while fighting to eject the Soviets from Afghanistan.

    Bin Laden, as one of 50+ children of the owner of a major Saudi construction firm that profited all through the oil expansion there, was strongly favored in inheriting a disproportionate amount from his father and ended up with over $300 million as a result. Much of this was expended building clinics and schools in the Afghan hinterland. The students of these madrassas were called Taliban, Pashto for "the students".

    During the fight to eject the Soviets, Bin Laden was an ally under the usual terms of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". However, once the common enemy is dispatched by two allies-of-convenience, a power vacuum is created in the formerly disputed territory and was filled by Bin Laden and his allies, in part because as major combatants they are best poised, trained and equipped to take advantage of the chaos left by the withdrawal of an occupation force.

    So even if Bin Laden was an ally during the Eighties, he was no longer a friend in the Nineties because we had no common enemy. To try to suggest that he was our ally is comparable to saying that the Soviets as our allies in WW II continued to be our allies throughout the Cold War.

    After a victory against a common foe, the enemy of your enemy is no longer your friend and quite often does become your enemy.

  11. Re:When the U.S war machine by rubycodez · · Score: 2

    Pakistan is the source of all the trouble in the region anyway, not seeing any downside to your imagined "erasing"

  12. Karachi already has nuclear reactor by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    There has already been a nuclear reactor plant in Pakistan Karachi since the 1972, supplied by the Canadian Gov; it's called the KANUPP-I and it's still in operation, but only generating 85MW of power (max power = 140MW), while the new reactor will generate up to 1000MW.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachi_Nuclear_Power_Complex#KANUPP-I

  13. Re:But but but by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Informative

    It is safe. But just like a lot of other safe thing, you have to be somewhat inteligent in using it. It is still not a good idea to run with safety scissors just like its not a good idea to walk around the shady parts of nyc showing everyone you pass a wad of cash while asking them where you can find some crack cocaine.

  14. Re:terrorist? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

    Pakistan hates the terrorists living there as much as anyone else, they just can't get rid of them. To be fair, either could the US when it tried to get them out of Afghanistan.

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