US Asks Vietnam To Stop Russian Bomber Refueling Flights From Cam Ranh Air Base

HughPickens.com writes Reuters reports that the United States has asked Vietnam to stop letting Russia use its former US base at Cam Ranh Bay to refuel nuclear-capable bombers engaged in shows of strength over the Asia-Pacific region. General Vincent Brooks, commander of the U.S. Army in the Pacific, says the Russian bombers have conducted "provocative" flights, including around the U.S. Pacific Ocean territory of Guam, home to a major American air base. Brooks said the planes that circled Guam were refueled by Russian tankers flying from the strategic bay, which was transformed by the Americans during the Vietnam War into a massive air and naval base. Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed that the airport at Cam Ranh was first used for staging Il-78 tankers for aerial refueling of Tu-95MS bombers in January 2014. Asked about the Russian flights in the region, the State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Washington respected Hanoi's right to enter agreements with other countries but added that "we have urged Vietnamese officials to ensure that Russia is not able to use its access to Cam Ranh Bay to conduct activities that could raise tensions in the region."

Cam Ranh is considered the finest deepwater shelter in Southeast Asia. North Vietnamese forces captured Cam Ranh Bay and all of its remaining facilities in 1975. Vietnam's dependence on Russia as the main source of military platforms, equipment, and armaments, has now put Hanoi in a difficult spot. Russia has pressed for special access to Cam Ranh Bay ever since it began delivering enhanced Kilo-class submarines to Vietnam. "Hanoi is invariably cautious and risk adverse in its relations with the major powers," says Carl Thayer. "The current issue of Russian tankers staging out of Cam Ranh pits Russia and China on one side and the United States on the other. There is no easy solution for Vietnam."

Comments

As if we were on some sort of moral high ground.

[Simulant]

I'm afraid of Russian nukes too but I fail to see how any one could do anything but laugh at us over this request given our military posturing.

If the Chinese actually were Involved...

[NicBenjamin]

The Vietnamese will be likely to stop the flights.

Their current big international dispute is over their maritime boundaries with China. The CHinese claim almost the entire South China Sea on the basis of something called the "nine-dashed-line," and have a tendency to periodically engage in extreme brinksmanship with all their neighbors in the region, including Vietnam. They actually fought a war with the Chinese in '79. Which means if the Russian flights support China in any way the Vietnamese have every reason to stop them.

But they aren't involved, so we'll just have to put up with it like we do in Europe.

Re:I feel for them...

[Karmashock]

The US is not going to invade Vietnam or really anyone else for sometime.

The US is politically fatigued by war.

The only thing that will get us out of this mode will be an attack on our soil that will force us to savage our opponent so that no other rival thinks that our territory can be struck without a lethal response.

Or some atrocities against our core allies. The US has many allies and they're not all equally important to us. Strike a member of NATO or one of our core east asian allies... possibly Israel as well.

Anything outside of that and the US will dither before committing troops.

Vietnam can host Russian bombers without risking US invasions. The real risk would be political, diplomatic, and economic isolation.

The US could simply give Vietnam the cold shoulder. And that could be just as dangerous for them because it might embolden the Chinese to invade Vietnam or nearly as bad the Chinese might just start appropriating Vietnamese shipping or build oil wells right off the coast of Vietnam.

The ability of these countries to protect their sovereign territory from China is based almost entirely on appeals to the international community to see that territorial borders are respected.

IF the US abandons Vietnam they may find there is no political or economic cost for china to simply take what it wants. Which means Vietnam loses natural resources at the very least and has no recourse. What is more, the US has clean hands in the whole thing because we will not have stolen anything from them. We'll just have selectively abstained from some meetings in the UN.

That is the sort of thing the US can do to Vietnam without using its military at all. It also has the benefit of making the US look good because we're not the ones taking people's stuff. And there will probably be appeals for the US to do something which itself is an admission of the value of US power. So again, America has that option and it is a pretty strong hand.

The Russians however are supplying arms to the Vietnamese. Not just guns... ships.... missile batteries. Something that could actually pose a problem for the chinese. The chinese could eat the damage and keep coming. There really isn't much the Vietnamese could do about it. But it would increase the cost or possibly even slow them down a bit.

Regardless, the Russians don't have to sell weapons to the Vietnamese. And the Russian weapons are pretty good while being a lot cheaper then western suppliers. The chinese are also big suppliers of weapons but like the Russians and Americans they only sell weapons to people they want to have weapons. The chinese are unlikely to sell formidable weaponry to the Vietnamese so they have to rely on whomever might supply them.

Another option might be the Indians. They're also pretty big arms suppliers. Their alliances are a little confused these days though. Traditionally they were allied with the Russians which is why the US has its complicated relationship with Pakistan. But they have more cultural, economic, and diplomatic ties with the west these days so the relationships are confused.

Re:Doubtful

[Karmashock]

Putin needs to get total victory in Ukraine. He doesn't need to actually absorb them literally but he does need to bring them into the Russian sphere of influence and break the western strategic ties in the region. If he doesn't, then his domestic political position collapses.

You have to keep in mind that prior to the invasion of Ukraine, his polling numbers in Russia were very low. Then he went to war and his numbers popped up.

If it goes on for too long and he doesn't come out of it looking like a winner then he'll probably suffer for it politically.

As to china, they have similar political problems brewing as well as mounting economic problems.

They've just recently sold their US bonds as well as many other assets. Their ability to pump money into their economy is coming to a close. And with that a sea change in china's economic position. And with that, changing political, diplomatic, and strategic relationships.

We are living in interesting times. ;)

Re:I feel for them...

[drinkypoo]

That sort of thing really doesn't happen.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Close your eyes, it can't happen here!

Re:I feel for them...

[Karmashock]

No.

They can choose between:

1. Not being able to buy cheap weapons from Russia.

2. Suffering ongoing economic, diplomatic, and strategic undermining from the United States.

3. The Chinese building oil wells 10 miles off their coast and draining their reserves dry.

Realistically these are the first things that each power will do if it feels it needs to send a message.

Russia really can't do much. Vietnam does need their weapons but maybe they can get them from India or possibly get some discounted hand me downs from the US. And keep in mind, that whatever they were buying from the Russians were Russian hand me downs.

The US can make it harder for US and other western companies to operate in Vietnam which is a lot of money and jobs out the window. And on top of that there are a lot of subtle things the US can do that individually don't matter but collectively are quite debilitating. If you really piss the US off, we can strangle nations. It isn't fast. But it can be sustained for generations... decade after decade after decade. And it just adds up.

And the Chinese are just right there. They have the most relevant military force in the area and have shown a willingness to just take what they want even with a US presence. Absent such a presence they'll just do a survey of anything they want and in the oceans at least off of Vietnam and strip it.