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The Arrival of Man-Made Earthquakes
An anonymous reader writes: The New Yorker has a long investigative report on a recent geological phenomenon: man-made earthquakes. The article describes how scientists painstakingly gathered data on the quakes, and then tried to find ways to communicate the results — which are quite definitive — to politicians who often have financial reasons to disbelieve them. Quoting: "Until 2008, Oklahoma experienced an average of one to two earthquakes of 3.0 magnitude or greater each year. (Magnitude-3.0 earthquakes tend to be felt, while smaller earthquakes may be noticed only by scientific equipment or by people close to the epicenter.) In 2009, there were twenty. The next year, there were forty-two. In 2014, there were five hundred and eighty-five, nearly triple the rate of California.
In state government, oil money is both invisible and pervasive. In 2013, Mary Fallin, the governor, combined the positions of Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Environment. Michael Teague, whom she appointed to the position, when asked by the local NPR reporter Joe Wertz whether he believed in climate change, responded that he believed that the climate changed every day. Of the earthquakes, Teague has said that we need to learn more. Fallin's first substantive response came in 2014, when she encouraged Oklahomans to buy earthquake insurance. (However, many earthquake-insurance policies in the state exclude coverage for induced earthquakes.)"
In state government, oil money is both invisible and pervasive. In 2013, Mary Fallin, the governor, combined the positions of Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Environment. Michael Teague, whom she appointed to the position, when asked by the local NPR reporter Joe Wertz whether he believed in climate change, responded that he believed that the climate changed every day. Of the earthquakes, Teague has said that we need to learn more. Fallin's first substantive response came in 2014, when she encouraged Oklahomans to buy earthquake insurance. (However, many earthquake-insurance policies in the state exclude coverage for induced earthquakes.)"
since the scale is logarithmic, you would need more than 3 million 2.0 earthquakes to dissipate the same energy as a single 8.5. So no, all these 2.0 or 3.0s don't make a dent in the probability of a giant 8.5
The subtitle of this article does not specify that this is the arrival of the "first" manmade earthquakes as you've mistakenly interpreted. The article itself clarifies this "arrival" in the following statement (emphasis mine):
"Few noticed that Keranen and her team had gathered likely the best data we have on a new phenomenon in Oklahoma: man-made earthquakes."
In other words, STFU and RTFA, slew. I can't believe you actually wasted time googling up citations of other man-made earthquakes in support of your asinine complaint.
Wasn't this the plot of the first Superman movie with Christopher Reeves?
-- This sig is only a test. If this were a real sig it would say something witty. --
"Geologists believe that the Yellowstone supervolcano could explode at any moment. ...
For a geologist "any moment" is sometime in the next million years.
Hopefully we can provide scientists enough data to prove what's going on (if it is indeed manmade) so they can use the data elsewhere.
Well, as TFA says:
The official position of the O.G.S. [Oklahoma Geological Survey] is that the Prague earthquakes were likely a natural event and that there is insufficient evidence to say that most earthquakes in Oklahoma are the result of disposal wells. That position, however, has no published research to support it, and there are at least twenty-three peer-reviewed, published papers that conclude otherwise.
There's a lot of research and science on this already. The only people who seem to be confused are Oklahoma politicians, corporate executives, and some Oklahoma geologists who are employed or influenced by politicians.
This is a state that went from 1-2 earthquakes over 3.0 per year to OVER 1500 such quakes in 2009-2014. So, something significant has changed (an increase of over two orders in magnitude is generally not just average variation), and it seems to have changed right around the time that people have started pumping a lot of stuff deep into the ground.
If these are NOT manmade, it's one heck of a coincidence....
Seismic activity in Oklahoma is not caused by fracking, but by disposal wells via which truly vast quantities of water are injected into basement rock. Fracking tends to cause only very small earthquakes, while poorly placed disposal wells can lead to quakes of magnitude 3.0 - 6.0 (based on examples in TFA).
.: Semper Absurda
he simple fact of the matter is that we don't have this information, i.e. there are no peer reviewed studies predicting or discounting any of your three possibilities with a reasonable degree of certainty.
This simply isn't true (can you say astroturf?). Fracking is a complete non sequitor here; disposal wells in Oklahoma have been shown to be the primary cause of increased seismic activity there by multiple tens of peer-reviewed studies, while zero papers have reached an alternative conclusion.
.: Semper Absurda
There are some good reasons to oppose hydraulic fracturing, but "earthquakes" isn't one of them.
Guess you skipped the article, which isn't about fracking. Instead, it's about disposal wells, which unlike fracking (which as you say is linked only to very small earthquakes) have been conclusively linked to larger quakes of magnitude 3.0 - 6.0. According to TFA, there were 585 such earthquakes in Oklahoma in 2013, while there were just a few annually prior to 2008.
This is as silly as opposing windmills because an occasional bird gets wacked.
None of the scientists or Oklahoma residents quoted by TFA are "opposed" to disposal wells. They want 1) the empirical link between disposal wells which contact basement rock and seismic activity to be recognized; 2) firms to be required to investigate if their wells contact basement rock; and 3) to move wells which do in fact contact basement rock.
.: Semper Absurda
are we sure these are caused by fracking?
Actually, we are sure that they are not caused by fracking (which tends to cause only very small quakes of magnitude < 3.0). Rather, larger 3.0 - 6.0 magnitude quakes in Oklahoma are being caused by disposal wells via which extremely large quantities of water are being injected into the ground. TFA states that > 25 peer-reviewed studies have concluded the disposal wells are responsible, while 0 studies have produced an alternative result.
Cause even if you are, you'll never get Oklahomans (especially the government) to believe it.
The USGS has already concluded that the quakes are caused by disposal wells. The director of the OGS (interviewed in the article) essentially states that OGS is being politically prevented from agreeing with that conclusion openly. So it's only the regulatory side of Oklahoma government which has issues with empiricism.
.: Semper Absurda
No, there were obvious precursors for weeks before the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980. The size and nature of the eruption was a surprise (few expected a sector collapse -- when the whole side of the mountain failed), but the eruption itself was predicted.
It gets better:
Recently the legislature introduced a bill that would block the oil/gas industry from liability for spills and earthquakes.
There's another that calls for an investigation into the scientists investigating the earthquakes (sound familiar to another topic??).
And they recently gave the oil/gas industry yet another tax break....while the state has a massive 600million dollar shortfall in its budget (Kansas gets most of the press for doubling down failed red state budgetary policies, but OK is right there with them). Further, they want to continue to cut the income tax again, and eventually eliminate it entirely. These two items of course not being negotiable, even in the face of the massive budgetary shortfall.
And the legislature passed a bill last week (which will be signed soon by the idiot Fallin if it hasn't already) that would ban local municipalities from interfering with, restricting, or banning oil/gas operations within their jurisdictions. That's right: the state government has told local government they cannot govern themselves in this area. Oil and gas by state law must (essentially) be given free reign to drill and operate where they want in the state.
Just like last year the state legislature banned local municipalities from setting their own minimum wages. By state law now, no city in Oklahoma may set a minimum wage higher than the state minimum wage, which of course is only as high as the federal. This was done in response to the mere idea being floated in OKC of setting a city minimum wage higher than the fed/state minimums.
Blech.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.