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What AI Experts Think About the Existential Risk of AI
DaveS7 writes: There's been no shortage of high profile people weighing in on the subject of AI lately. We've heard warnings from Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Stephen Hawking while Woz seems to have a more ambivalent opinion on the subject. The Epoch Times has compiled a list of academics in the field of AI research who are offering their own opinions. From the article: "A 2014 survey conducted by Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of 170 of the leading experts in the field found that a full 18 percent believe that if a machine super-intelligence did emerge, it would unleash an 'existential catastrophe' on humanity. A further 13 percent said that advanced AI would be a net negative for humans, and only a slight majority said it would be a net positive."
Indeed, emphasis in reporting. To break it down:
Extremely good - 24%
On balance good - 28%
Neutral - 17%
On balance bad - 13%
Extremely bad - 18%
So, over half good, less than a third bad. Sure sounds different.
'Well ... in the unlikely event of it going seriously wrong, it ... wouldn't just blow up the university, sir'
'What would it blow up, pray?'
'Er ... everything, sir.'
'Everything there is, you mean?'
'Within a radius of about fifty thousand miles out into space, sir, yes. According to HEX it'd happen instantaneously. We wouldn't even know about it.'
'And the odds of this are ... ?'
'About fifty to one, sir.'
The wizards relaxed.
'That's pretty safe. I wouldn't bet on a horse at those odds,' said the Senior Wrangler.
-Terry Pratchett et al., The Science of Discworld
Expert's opinion do not weight much. Even if they were all against it, as soon as there is profit to be made, it would happen anyway.
"Elon Musk? Really? Why do you even think his opinion on AI is worth anything?"
To be fair, he funds the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, which is devoted to mitigating existential risk from AI, and is surely getting very detailed reports from them, making him a highly knowledgeable layperson at worst (a direct expert at best).