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Computer Modeling Failed During the Ebola Outbreak

Posted by samzenpus on from the who's-to-blame dept.

the_newsbeagle writes: Last fall, the trajectory of the Ebola outbreak looked downright terrifying: Computational epidemiologists at Virginia Tech predicted 175,000 cases in Liberia by the end of 2014, while the CDC predicted 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone. They were way off. The actual tally as of January 2015: A total of 20,712 cases in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone combined, and in all three countries, the epidemic was dying down. But the modelers argue that this really wasn't a failure, because their predictions served as worst-case scenarios that mobilized international efforts.

3 of 193 comments (clear)

  1. Re:wrong is right by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: -1, Troll

    wrong is right... if you get more funding for being wrong.

  2. Failed logic.... by gfxguy · · Score: 1, Troll

    But the modelers argue that this really wasn't a failure, because their predictions served as worst-case scenarios that mobilized international efforts.

    So the ends justifies the means. Got it.

    --
    Stupid sexy Flanders.
  3. Re: wrong is right by chipschap · · Score: -1, Troll

    Excuse me, it is politically incorrect to doubt the climate change models.