Ask Slashdot: How to Avoid The Worst of a Tech Bubble?

An anonymous reader writes: I just reached a senior level in a tech career and I've been doing pretty much a bit of everything, e.g. software architecture, full stack dev, eng. related specific dev, consultancy, etc. So I'm at a point where I want to start focusing on something that has a good development path, i.e. I won't struggle finding a job, it'll be fairly paid and it'll allow me to move up in responsibility (bigger teams, more difficult projects) if I want to. It seems like we might be heading into a new tech bubble. Based on your experience of the .com collapse and your predictions for the current market, is there any path you wouldn't recommend (or strongly recommend) if this bubble goes pop? What were the roles most affected when the .com bubble burst back in 2000 and would it be any different this time? Is there anything you can do to be better prepared, such as focusing on broader techs rather than niche techs, etc.

Comments

Plumbing.

[ColdWetDog]

Works on bubbles, vacuums, what have you.

Remember, plumbing is at the heart of civilization - the Romans figured that out for us. Without plumbing, we would be up shit creek.

How to avoid the tech bubble

[ArcadeMan]

Don't be inside the bubble when it burst.

Re:How to avoid the tech bubble

[bkmoore]

Don't be inside the bubble when it burst.

That's the best advice of all. Make sure that whatever you're working on, it's continued existence does not dependent its short-term market valuation. Imho, most of the losers in the 2000- bust were businesses that needed to maintain high valuations in order to have access to capital to for day-to-day operations. In short, needed to constantly borrow money to cover operating expenses.

Might be?

[Anonymous Coward]

Might be heading into a bubble? MIGHT be?

We're well into this bubble now. When you can see bullshit companies with no business model other than "hope we get bought out be a bigger company" going IPO with Gold-In-Sacks for tens of billions of dollars of "value", it doesn't take half-brained economist to see there's something seriously wrong.

Just be flexible and good.

[Shados]

There's a lot of companies that shouldn't exist, or some that are artificially inflated. The demand for engineers is absurd, so companies, even the big ones, are hiring countless pseudo-engineers with little experience, no degrees (not that you can't be good without one, but it sure as hell doesn't hurt... I myself am doing fine without), or just bad.

They don't get fired because companies want every hands they can get.

When things get back to reasonable levels, those people will be without jobs. Just be better than them and you'll be fine.

Have canaries

[MyFirstNameIsPaul]

I was selling trade show exhibits in Silicon Valley during the .com bust and I can tell you that the first department to cut their budget in an organization is marketing. We knew we were in a recession/local depression long before anyone else.

Companies whose revenue comes primarily from venture capital may have certain requirements for promotion, as some investors want to see promotion for promotion's sake, vs. requiring an actual ROI on promotion efforts. Network out to some of your non-tech co-workers and vendors in the marketing arena. When they start to see a lot of companies holding back on hiring new positions, reducing trade show attendance and other marketing expenses, evaluate your current options. It may be that you have an opportunity to seek safety in a lower paying, but far more secure position in your current firm or a different firm. Management is often very insecure.

I can tell you that the nearly instantaneous elimination in the number of commuters in 2000/2001 here was mind-blowing. I knew if a prospect was worth pursuing by the evaluating the size of a building and how empty it's parking lot was. This all happens much faster than most people realize, so having a canary to tell you what is about to come is very important. It may be that you are in a very secure company, but they decided to purchase some large asset or make some other large investment that offsetting the cost due to reduced revenue requires those positions and even whole departments considered secure to be temporarily eliminated.

Companies whose primary revenue comes from advertising will see some of the largest reductions in revenue. Stay away from them unless they are incredibly well established and you have a seriously critical position.