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Study: Sixth Extinction Event Is Underway
garyisabusyguy writes: We've heard proposals in the past that a new extinction event is underway. However, a new study takes into consideration many other factors that may be tilting the data, and still comes to the inevitable conclusion that we have triggered a large die-off, and that we may become victims of it as well.
From the paper's abstract: "Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way."
The authors suggest that rapid work to avert the worst of the die-off is still possible. The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner.
From the paper's abstract: "Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way."
The authors suggest that rapid work to avert the worst of the die-off is still possible. The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner.
And between the pecuniary interests, the people who cannot imagine anything beyond 3 months, and the folks who actually want the world to end, via either religion outcome, or just wanting to see the world burn - I suspect we're going to drive the bus off that extinction cliff while singing happy days are here again.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Is this the same Paul Ehrlich who became famous for predicting that overpopulation would kill off humanity long before we would see the 21st Century? Of course environmentalists, in bestowing upon us their latest set of apocalyptic "predictions" would pick someone who has been spectacularly wrong so often in the past.
Considering that most of Earth is overrun by humans and that many species are in minority and located to small shrinking areas it's a cause for concern. Only species that benefits humans or live in areas inhospitable for humans have a better chance of survival.
If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
Served just fine nearing on 20 years, slowly pushed to extinction by the rise of soulless, repulsive Dice Holdings now known as DHI.
So, last time I checked (a couple of days back, when this first appeared in the news), "background extinction rate" is a great deal of SWAG (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess).
We don't know the total number of species alive now or at any particular time in the past. We never have, and it's likely we never will (until that number is 1). Which makes any estimate of the rate of extinction now or in the past more guess than science.
Without an accurate guesstimate of number of species at any given time, "background extinction rate" is an even less accurate guesstimate.
And with the denominator of (current extinction rate/background extinction rate) a guesstimate, the number produced (114 in this case) is another guesstimate (we don't even know the number of species going extinct now, much less the average number - what we know is the number of species that we notice going extinct).
So, I'm less than excited by this particular prediction. Maybe in a century or two we'll know enough to make this a major concern (note that 114x background rate translates to ~225 species going extinct per million years - it's hardly going to be a swift extinction, except in geological terms).
Or not....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
How do you justify your claim of it being BS with no evidence?
Give some evidence, better than the one in the paper (note: several studies have shown that this is a massive extinction event and we're probably the ones doing it). Or just make shit up and stick your head up your ass and go "All I see is bull shit!".
Your call.
Barely populated but still heavily manipulated by humans.
It only takes a couple of people to run a 3,000 acre farm but the entirety of that 3,000 acres is strictly for human purposes and quite hostile to most animals (a monoculture alone will cause numerous issues).
Horses do. The ones with no names.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
This paper talks about the background rate, averaged over 350 million (with an M) years, since the Cambrian Explosion. In the middle of that "background" we have had tidal shield volcanism, planet-killer asteroid strikes, the utter destruction of the global ecology by graminoids, and the nearly complete extinction of all anerobic life by cyanobacteria.
Now, compare this against the "current time frame" -- 100 years. 100 Years! That's insanely short. The analogy is comparing the overall murder rate of people attending church, averaged since we had statistics, to the single two hours in Charleston and then making the claim that "Church Murders are 500 Time Higher."
Comparing rates is tricky stuff. The data curve is hugely noisy, with one event causing a spike, other times things average out. In mathematical terms using the derivative of a function over short periods to extrapolate a long term event is suspect at best, and an exercise in blithering ignorance at worst. 100 years sounds like a long time to humans, but in geological time it's not even a clock tick.
Don't take life too seriously; it isn't permanent.
"Overrun" can mean more than just someone having a house covering a spot. In that 3/4 of the world that is ocean, look at how several of the commercially important fisheries have collapsed. And the big whales? They had all those oceans to live in and it didn't do them any good once technological humans decided they had useful oil and parts. Just because an area is big and no one has a house there doesn't mean it hasn't been effectively "overrun". As it is now, we need a lot of open land, water, and air to provide the resources we want and to take back the trash we create. Those areas are "overrun".
Dude, you don't get it. He's a programmer or some other tech sector kind of guy. That means he's smarter and better than all the scientists. Isn't that how it works?
Big whoop. Nobody lives in the desert or in arctic tundra.
Also, very few people live in the rain forests, the taiga, the steppes, etc. The population is becoming more concentrated, as the world is becoming more urban. Big areas of Siberia have been emptying out. Many small towns on the American prairie are dying, as young people head off to the cities. If you want to preserve wild habitat, the best thing to do is to encourage even faster urbanization, especially in the third world. Urban people have a smaller ecological footprint, and also have fewer children.
Okay. If we want to start with the ocean, which is 3/4 of the world: marine fish biomass has dropped by 80% over the last century.
Over fishing, petrochemical spills/pollution, and indirectly raising the temperature...
So sad to see cute, cuddly and some magnificent animals die off. But they are of little significance compared to small and microscopic life forms. When they die, we die. Poison the ocean, the air and the soil and we are killing vast, unimaginable numbers of critical life forms that make our planet livable. Who is measuring our losses of algae and bacteria, the providers of oxygen that made all the rest of life possible?
You've heard about the dying honeybees, now consider the rest. You may not care for cockroaches, amoeba, bacteria or fruit flies; but they matter. And it's not just the external ones. Inside our bodies are critical critters that digest our food and symbiotically live with us. They too are at risk as we experiment with chemicals, radiation, genetics, nanotech and other fun stuff.
We all love lions, tigers and bears. Who can resist adoring a panda, koala or even an ordinary baby kitten? But are these things critical to human survival? Human emotions are fascinating but they often lead us astray.
...omphaloskepsis often...
The Holocene extinction is a well known phenomenon; you can read about it here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
The paper doesn't present any new evidence; it's a biased interpretation of existing, known data.
Ehrlich is simply wrong when he says "[the study] shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event"; that would require 75% or more of all species to disappear; the paper only looks at a small subset of species, those most affected by humans. The paper also incorrectly extrapolates from the past into the future, but 19th and 20th century trends simply aren't relevant to the 21st century or beyond. Growth is entirely different in the 21st century, and the high extinction rates in past centuries were due to particularly susceptible species and pristine ecosystems being affected. Think of it this way: if we were actively trying to kill species, we are now reaching the point where we have killed off all the ones that are easy to kill, and if we wanted to continue, it would be a lot harder and we would have to slow down.
Finally, the paper presents no evidence that an anthropogenic extinction or mass extinction event would be harmful to humans. Gibbons, bison, manatee, oryxes, tapirs, and all those other endangered species are wonderful to have around, and I think everybody should donate and volunteer trying to provide habitat for them. But misrepresenting their significance doesn't help: Bartel's Rat going extinct is no more a threat to human survival than the Mona Lisa going up in flames would be.
The paper is bullshit, and if you knew anything about the subject, you would recognize it as such.
With one key difference. The crowding out is being caused by humans and humans alone; die-offs as a result of "extinction events" are unavoidable natural catastrophes. There is absolutely nothing "unavoidable" or "natural" about the way mankind is butchering this planet.
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
Well, I got it from this XKCD. And he got it from this report by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The trouble is, the AAAS seems to have changed around their website since then and the report is either no longer available or is just no longer findable by me.
So there you are. I'm willing to trust the XKCD guy, he's always been pretty diligent, but you can go hunting for the original document if you'd like.
Absolutely. And the more money you make (or think maybe you'll make someday with all the great ideas you haven't implemented), the better equipped you are to pass judgment on complex technical fields you aren't even familiar with. It has to be "clean" money, though, made from enriching shareholders... none of this working for the public good nonsense.