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Political Polls Become Less Reliable As We Head Into 2016 Presidential Election
HughPickens.com writes: Cliff Zukin writes in the NY Times that those paying close attention to the 2016 election should exercise caution as they read the polls — election polling is in near crisis as statisticians say polls are becoming less reliable. According to Zukin, two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Coupled, they have made high-quality research much more expensive to do, so there is less of it. This has opened the door for less scientifically-based, less well-tested techniques.
To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify "likely voters," has become even thornier. Today, a majority of people are difficult or impossible to reach on landline phones. One problem is that the 1991 Telephone Consumer Protection Act has been interpreted by the Federal Communications Commission to prohibit the calling of cellphones through automatic dialers, in which calls are passed to live interviewers only after a person picks up the phone. To complete a 1,000-person survey, it's not unusual to have to dial more than 20,000 random numbers, most of which do not go to actual working telephone numbers.
The second unsettling trend is rapidly declining response rates, reaching levels once considered unimaginable. In the late 1970s, pollsters considered an 80 percent response rate acceptable, but by 2014 the response rate has fallen to 8 percent. "Our old paradigm has broken down, and we haven't figured out how to replace it," concludes Zukin. "In short, polls and pollsters are going to be less reliable. We may not even know when we're off base. What this means for 2016 is anybody's guess."
To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify "likely voters," has become even thornier. Today, a majority of people are difficult or impossible to reach on landline phones. One problem is that the 1991 Telephone Consumer Protection Act has been interpreted by the Federal Communications Commission to prohibit the calling of cellphones through automatic dialers, in which calls are passed to live interviewers only after a person picks up the phone. To complete a 1,000-person survey, it's not unusual to have to dial more than 20,000 random numbers, most of which do not go to actual working telephone numbers.
The second unsettling trend is rapidly declining response rates, reaching levels once considered unimaginable. In the late 1970s, pollsters considered an 80 percent response rate acceptable, but by 2014 the response rate has fallen to 8 percent. "Our old paradigm has broken down, and we haven't figured out how to replace it," concludes Zukin. "In short, polls and pollsters are going to be less reliable. We may not even know when we're off base. What this means for 2016 is anybody's guess."
What do you expect. Figures don't lie, but liars can figure.
INSERT INTO comment VALUE('Doh!') WHERE user='you';
One problem is that the 1991 Telephone Consumer Protection Act has been interpreted by the Federal Communications Commission to prohibit the calling of cellphones through automatic dialers, in which calls are passed to live interviewers only after a person picks up the phone.
I know some people that the pollers could outsource to that have seemed to have found a very easy workaround to this problem.
"Hi, this is Rachel from polling services....."
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
No reliable polling data? The horrors!
Instead of focusing on the horse race (who's ahead? who's falling behind?), do you think the media will discuss what candidates actually say and do, maybe even compare and contrast their stump speeches with their actual record and/or accomplishments?
That would truly be "we inform, you decide."
Lose = not win
"Maybe the candidates can talk about things that they actually believe."
Blasphemer! Heretic! Shun him! Shun him!
None of them can see the clouds; The polished wings don't care.
Mayonnaise.
Don't be silly. The media is only biased and corrupt when it DOESN'T agree with conservative talking points.
Political polls are exempt from do-not-call lists and every Sept-early November my phone rings several times each evening. I can ask to not be called and I will continue to get called over and over.
This year I've decided if I can't make phone polls stop calling I will actively work against them by lying my ass off. I'll tell them I'm voting for Darth Vader because he's honest about where he stands on social issues and foreign policy. The most important issue in this election season is freeing minds from the Matrix.
It also never hurts to answer every question with "Hodor"