Double-Dynamo Model Predicts 60% Fall In Solar Output In The 2030s

sycodon points out reports of a new model of solar dynamics from University of Northumbria professor Valentina Zharkova, predictions from which "suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645." Zharkova's model, based on observation of solar magnetism, "draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone." Zharkova’s and her colleages at three other universities believe that this two-layer model "could explain aspects of the solar cycle with much greater accuracy than before — possibly leading to enhanced predictions of future solar behaviour. “We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs; originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different [for both] and they are offset in time.”

Comments

Excuse to keep using oil

[Anonymous Coward]

If this is true, clearly we need to be putting MORE CO2 into the atmosphere, not less. That's just science.

Solar *activity* not *output*

[rumpledoll]

Not solar output falling 60%, which would lead to completely frozen Earth, but solar activity, i.e. the 11 year sunspot cycle. Predicting levels near or at those found during the Maunder minimum. This does imply some reduced level of solar output.

Re:Solar *activity* not *output*

[Geoffrey.landis]

Not solar output falling 60%, which would lead to completely frozen Earth, but solar activity, i.e. the 11 year sunspot cycle. Predicting levels near or at those found during the Maunder minimum. This does imply some reduced level of solar output.

About plus or minus 0.1% change in total solar irradiance between solar maximum and solar minimum:

http://science.nasa.gov/scienc...

Re:Solar *activity* not *output*

[MightyDrunken]

It is a shame it isn't 60% of solar output, I was looking forward to "room temperature" superconductors.

Every cycle

[Geoffrey.landis]

Well, except that every solar cycle since I can remember, I've heard somebody predicting that the next solar cycle is about the start a new Maunder minimum, and it will mean mini ice age. Every one.
This one is a prediction based on fitting a model only to the last three cycles. i'm not impressed.
For reference, here's the MSFC page on solar cycle modelling: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa....