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Winklevoss Twins Get Closer To Launching Their Bitcoin Exchange
An anonymous reader writes: Reuters has an update on the Winklevoss twins plan to launch a regulated Bitcoin exchange called Gemini. The two have filed a New York trust application necessary for them to launch their Gemini bitcoin exchange. If approved, the exchange would be able to accept deposits, and issue loans. The twins say they want to make digital currency mainstream in the United States.
Will they only deal with Bitcoin or will they also accept other crypto-currencies such as Litecoin, Dashcoin and Dogecoin?
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They have consulted a coder on the idea and he is currently working on the implementation.
It remains to be seen how this will turn out.
A Bitcoin is worth its weight in gold.
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Yeah, if you follow conventional wisdom. Which works, until it doesn't. Most likely you're guaranteed to lose purchasing value on a ten year note right now with a yield of 2.264%. Unless you really think inflation is going to be below that over the same time span. The US can't pay its debts without money printing. Between money printing and default, neither makes a 10 year note a great investment at this time. And the dollar won't be the world reserve currency forever.
Because in most developed countries, people have been using either debit cards or PayPass-enabled credit cards for years. We don't see the point in Apple Pay/Google Wallet.
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10 year treasuries have averaged ~2.5% over the last 5 years:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US...
Median CPI, before fiddling, has average about 2% over the last 5 years
So over that period, the estimated real return is 0.5%
Your type has been saying the same thing for decades, centuries: inflation will explode! The Swiss franc will become the world's reserve currency! Except the dollar's stronger now, even after the Fed created trillions upon trillions out of thin air. And the Swiss are charging negative interest rates precisely because they don't want to be the reserve currency. When you become the world's reserve currency you lose control over the money supply. The Fed for example can't control the supply of Eurodollars.
The world's capital supplies are getting very close to a quadrillion US dollars. The Fed can create enough money to pay off the US debt, and it will be such a minute fraction of the total money supply that it won't cause a blip on inflation.
In conclusion, you don't know jack about what you're talking about, and your ilk have been predicting imminent doom and gloom for the US dollar because of the national debt since the very first US administration. It's like Chicken Little screaming about the sky falling. No one's paying attention anymore.
And Apple shares have outperformed Gold, so by this logic, the world should switch to using Apple shares as currency?
And the dollar won't be the world reserve currency forever.
I think you can look at anything and say that it will not be the case forever and be guaranteed to be right. However, the USD, despite its issues, is looking strong for the next few decades because the other currencies have even bigger issues than the greenback.
The Euro's speculative value is based heavily on the strength of the union, rather than the strength of the large economies backing it. No matter how strong and stable Germany and France may be, they can never wholly support the Euro's worth. Even with a strong Italy and Spain, the Euro would still be prone to shocks and fears. The Euro is held as a reserve currency, but not with the same gusto as it was 5 years ago.
Chinese Yuan RMB, is first and foremost, a controlled currency. Currency exchanges in China are limited by law and complicated to perform, leading it to have a lower volume of trade and thus lower fluidity on the foreign market than Australian/Canadian Dollars, Swiss Franks and Mexican Pesos. Beyond that, it exists to serve Chinese monetary policy, rather than American monetary policy largely existing to serve the Dollar, leading to a lot of exposure to holders of large amounts of it.
The Japanese Yen is used as a reserve currency because of its low inflation. But because of its low inflation, Japan is not growing, despite the 0.1% interest rate they have had for almost a decade now, which makes it unlikely to eclipse anyone anytime soon.
Australian dollars, Swiss Franks and Canadian Dollars, each are underpinned by economies too small and too focused on particular sectors. The only reason AUD and CHF are traded so much is that they move rapidly in a predicable direction due to certain economic conditions. It makes them suitable for a hedge in currency baskets, but not to hold the bulk of value. Besides, its not certain that there is enough of these currencies in circulation to make holding the world's reserves in it practical. Possibly Australia and Canada are just large enough to endure foreign banks either hording their currencies or creating money on paper by lending the another currency against debts in their own, but Switzerland with its half trillion GDP would surely consider this as an act of sabotage.
So what does that leave beyond USD? Pound Stirling, which is in fact a commonly held reserve currency. But the UK does not have the natural resources or the population for rapid growth, so I doubt it will overtake the US.
So what is left? Brazil, Russia and India? Well, the Ruble is a basket case, the Real has 8.5% inflation and the Rupee is in deflation at the moment, leading to concerns about money supply.
I think the USD could get a lot worse before people start thinking about getting rid of it.
When Argumentum ad Hominem falls short, try Argumentum ad Matrem
I seriously doubt that. I only have global sales number, not US specific, but there are many online retailers that are larger. Newegg had around $2.7 billion in revenue in 2013. The same year Amazon had $68 billion, Apple had $18 billion, Staples and Walmart both had around $10 billion in online sales. Sears (a company that every talks about as dieing) and QVC (yes the website for that crappy home marketing TV station) both had nearly $5 billion in revenue. Even among consumer electronics CDW and Best Buy had more online sales at over $3 billion each. And again, while these are global numbers, most of those companies are US based, with strong US sales.
Newegg is one of hundreds of online retailers of simular size. While it is a great company, it's adoption of bitcoin is by no means an indication that something has gone mainstream.
Source: http://www.wsj.com/news/intera...
Minimum wage cashiers already have high end smartphones.