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Computer Science Enrollments Match NASDAQ's Rises and Fall

dcblogs writes: In March 2000, the NASDAQ composite index reached a historic high of 5,048, at just about the same time undergrad computer science enrollments hit a peak of nearly 24,000 students at PhD-granting institutions in the U.S. and Canada, according to data collected by the Computing Research Association in its most recent annual Taulbee Survey. By 2005, computer science enrollments had halved, declining to just over 12,000. On July 17, the NASDAQ hit its highest point since 2000, reaching a composite index of 5,210. In 2014, computer science undergrad enrollments reached nearly, 24,000, almost equal to the 2000 high. Remarkably, it has taken nearly 15 years to reach the earlier enrollment peak.

67 comments

  1. And yet 15 years later... by damn_registrars · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ... we still can't get competent editors at slashodt. Certainly there must have been someone who minored in English or Journalism who could take care of these atrocious front-page grammar and readability issues? I've seen better writing in comment sections of code written by people who learned English as a third or fourth language.

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
    1. Re:And yet 15 years later... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      ... we still can't get competent editors at slashodt. Certainly there must have been someone who minored in English or Journalism who could take care of these atrocious front-page grammar and readability issues? I've seen better writing in comment sections of code written by people who learned English as a third or fourth language.

      Oh, the irony...

    2. Re:And yet 15 years later... by TWX · · Score: 2

      It's kind of amusing to read a complaint about poor use of English that contains a typo.

      Slashdot's editors typically don't do much to user submissions. I'm not surprised that an otherwise language-poor summary is published.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    3. Re:And yet 15 years later... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... we still can't get competent editors at slashodt. Certainly there must have been someone who minored in English or Journalism who could take care of these atrocious front-page grammar and readability issues? I've seen better writing in comment sections of code written by people who learned English as a third or fourth language.

      Like all the computer science jobs... English has been outsourced to India.

    4. Re:And yet 15 years later... by halivar · · Score: 2

      He's not an editor.

    5. Re:And yet 15 years later... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      You mean there isn't an app for that?

    6. Re:And yet 15 years later... by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      If there was, it would write your post as:

      HELP!!!! I am needing to transalt the engish. Is any guru knowing one app that is doing the needful? ** URGENT ***

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    7. Re:And yet 15 years later... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      As long as its in YAML, I'll be fine. :)

    8. Re:And yet 15 years later... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      shut the fuck up dickhead.

    9. Re:And yet 15 years later... by MasseKid · · Score: 1

      How about adding a coefficient of determination value (R squared) to the summary on anything claiming a correlation between two things?

    10. Re:And yet 15 years later... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You missed the

      thx plz to be knowing

    11. Re:And yet 15 years later... by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      It's kind of amusing to read a complaint about poor use of English that contains a typo.

      There must be some law that any correspondence (comment, letter, post, whatever) about some issue about the use of English, be it spelling, or grammar, will contain that very issue in it. So if someone is complaining about a typo, inevitably, there will be a typo in it. Ditto grammar.

    12. Re:And yet 15 years later... by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      There is. It's called Muphry's law..

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    13. Re:And yet 15 years later... by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Slashdot's editors typically don't do much to user submissions.

      Who told you that? Every submission I've had accepted has been altered by more than half.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    14. Re: And yet 15 years later... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just the title makes me think the correlation is relevant.

  2. It'd take years to see the effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lots of PhD grads in school in 2000.
    Once they get out and swamp the job market, NASDAQ falls.
    People get out of CS in 05. Effects aren't noticed for years later.

    1. Re:It'd take years to see the effect by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      I went back to school to learn computer programming on a part-time basis while working full time as a video game tester after the dot com bust. I couldn't get into some classes because there were too many students in 2002. That changed in 2005, where I couldn't get into some classes because there weren't enough students. My final year in school was all independent studies classes for classes that I needed for graduation but the school wasn't offering due to a lack of demand.

  3. Not surprising at all by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's not surprising at all. The NASDAQ is tech-heavy and the performance of those companies affects the job prospects for recent graduates. It's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly remarkable.

    1. Re:Not surprising at all by TWX · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Factor college-admissions as a trailing economic indicator too, where people chase what's encouraged as the hot career path, and it's not exactly a surprise to see cyclical enrollments correlating with business.

      After watching the doctom and housing bubbles, by the time the average person hears about it, it's too late to enter that trend and come out ahead. I suspect one of the next bubbles will be in health care. We see a lot of discussion of Nursing and careers below nursing on the pecking-order, and I suspect relatively soon there will be a lot of medical grads that can't find work.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    2. Re:Not surprising at all by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 2

      The delusion amongst many academics, that students enroll in programs for any reason but to cash out and make money, continues unabated. We are still subjecting people who are paying an awful lot of money to general ed requirements, when advanced and focused trade schools would probably be the right solution for the the majority of applicants. Academia is a calling, one that requires either extreme dedication or a trust fund to hear.

    3. Re:Not surprising at all by Sqr(twg) · · Score: 2

      That's probably true to some extent, but there's not enough statistical evidence to rule out a "rock music causes oil production"-type correlation.

      Unrelated things frequently peak within a few years from each other by pure chance.

    4. Re:Not surprising at all by Bengie · · Score: 2

      People who get into programming for the money are the worst programmers. We don't need more warm bodies.

    5. Re:Not surprising at all by paulpach · · Score: 1

      It's not surprising at all. The NASDAQ is tech-heavy and the performance of those companies affects the job prospects for recent graduates. It's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly remarkable.

      Exactly!. I would be surprised if there was no correlation.

      Education (just like any other service) is primarily driven by supply and demand. The more companies want a particular skill, the higher they will be willing to pay for it (demand). The higher the salaries, the more people will be interested in learning that skill (supply).

      File this one under "no shit Sherlock" cabinet.

    6. Re:Not surprising at all by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      That describes 90% of the students enrolled in computer programming at a community college.

    7. Re:Not surprising at all by WillRobinson · · Score: 1

      Funny, all 4 data points correlate the assumption.

    8. Re:Not surprising at all by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      If you saw it in other systems (say animal populations versus food supply, or elevator position versus AoA in planes) that'd support my theory that it's baked into the fundamentals of mathematics that when you get a stimulus, a response and a big delay before the effect it'll oscillate like a breakdancing porpoise.

      But that's crazy talk.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    9. Re:Not surprising at all by knightghost · · Score: 1

      People who get into programming for the money are the worst programmers. We don't need more warm bodies.

      People that don't pursue a paycheck are destined to starve.

      Face it - we have bills to pay. There's plenty of people intelligent enough for CS but they're not taking it because they are smart enough to realize that they have the intelligence and drive to get other jobs that pay much more. Stock analysts and traders, management, etc.

    10. Re:Not surprising at all by swb · · Score: 1

      Let's assume that the general education requirements of most college educations (ie, some smattering of English literature & composition, arts, bit of a foreign language, social studies, etc) actually does result in those students coming out slightly more knowledgeable than if they would have had even an "advanced" kind of technical education.

      It's a reach, I know, but let's say they are overall a little smarter (ie, learned some new analytical skills & strategies) and are better informed.

      I wonder if we're actually better off from this. Not because people aren't smarter or better informed, but because they're only a little smarter and a little better informed and they overestimate how well they informed they are and how good their analytical skills are.

      On a mass scale, I wonder how much our political divisiveness and partisanship is driven by a whole bunch of people, who think they're smarter and better informed than they really are, taking sides -- often quite stridently -- on issues they don't really know about and reaching conclusions they don't really have the analytical tools to reach.

      Add in the fact that everyone is an Internet Expert on everything they can read in Wikipedia and you have this recipe for high-quality mass ignorance and confirmation bias trying to portray itself as an educated populace.

      If we moved the overwhelming majority of these people into a more advanced and focused vocational education that left out the "well rounded" part, would our *actual* ignorance as opposed to overestimated wisdom make us less partisan? Or would we just be even more gullible, swayed by propaganda, etc?

    11. Re:Not surprising at all by TWX · · Score: 1

      I'd like to see a breakdancing porpoise. Sounds novel.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    12. Re:Not surprising at all by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Interesting question. There are two components to this:

      1) If you have people trained to regurgitate mere facts, believing this makes them "smart", you are quite correct, this makes such people easily gullible to the lie that you can justify biased positions without further analysis on all the different angles. These people have always scored high in human systems, because they are parrots merely copying a "success formula", easily swayed to the winning side, and then justify anything for the sake of looting the spoils. All human systems are designed to train people to enforce and feed upon the system in order to become dependent, needy and controllable.

      2) There is also value, both to the system but also to individual leaders, to have people who speak the truth plainly as they see it, or even go in-depth in analysis, coming up with new discoveries, inventions and breakthroughs. In fact, our evolution is highly dependent on this destructive aspect. The prevailing or emerging human systems on the other hand, are constantly evolving into strangling these impulses of free thought and independency. Even as geniuses like Einstein, Newton and many others are praised as free spirits with free thoughts, just like the prophets of the Bible, such men cannot possibly walk among us today, unless they support established opinions, which of course are not new thoughts. "If you see Buddah on the road, kill him." is an doubly ironic saying of human fear and ignorance.

      Yet the human soul is free, a testamet that any strangling systems will either kill its host, or force new adaptions of circumvention, and thus new creative expressions of what life means.

      Captcha: dreamed

    13. Re:Not surprising at all by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      What correlation? There's just some tech writer who can't do basic math talking about "heartbeat coordination, like in ET."

    14. Re: Not surprising at all by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I just love how the law of attraction works with primates.

    15. Re:Not surprising at all by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People who get into programming for the money are the worst programmers. We don't need more warm bodies.

      People that don't pursue a paycheck are destined to starve.

      Face it - we have bills to pay. There's plenty of people intelligent enough for CS but they're not taking it because they are smart enough to realize that they have the intelligence and drive to get other jobs that pay much more.

      And have better hours, and benefits, and paid overtime, etc.

    16. Re:Not surprising at all by Bengie · · Score: 1

      In my perfectly unbiased opinion, the two sets of intelligent and obsessed with money are very separated. If I got to choose one trait on which to guess who will be a good programmer, it would be someone who is interested in the subject.

      Intelligence isn't enough to be good, you need to be motivated and being good requires a lot of motivation. CS/Programming is very unhindered in its ability to evolve, allowing for quick changes in short time frames. Programming is one sector where maintaining status quo means you're worthless. The theory that people learn in CS is great, but many can't abstract that theory well enough to apply to new situations. Almost all new "inventions" are just rediscoveries of something already known back in 1970.

      The biggest annoyance I see is too many look at issues as cookie-cutter. I've seen too many people who I consider very intelligent and have a wealth of knowledge, but see everything as a nail. They can't abstract out the minor differences and try to shoe-horn too many issues. Like a person trying to view a Tesseract as a 3D object, they over complicate issues because they over-simplify the solution. Just add an extra dimension and the problem is simple, but they instead treat each view of the Tesseract as a new problem.

  4. Lesson - never chase fads with your education by ErichTheRed · · Score: 1, Troll

    I graduated in 1997, just in time to watch the tech bubble inflate to full capacity and pop. I wasn't a CS grad, but wound up in IT. I did notice that a lot of people were starting CS majors while I was in school. Are there really only 24,000 undergrad CS students? Maybe they're just talking about people who finish.

    There was an NPR piece a while back about undergrad Petroleum Engineering programs being super-hot and producing grads that got 6-figure salaries at the top of the fracking boom. Cue the stories of undergrads taking huge loans out, spending years studying a field that has reduced employment prospects when they get out. (Almost every law school grad is experiencing this now due to some of the same factors we in IT have, such as offshoring and wage deflation.)

    The new grad market is ruthless and demand spikes get flattened out way faster than a typical education cycle. Remember the huge boom in the healthcare field for nurses and allied health professions? It's still there but nowhere near what it was a while back. Now with all the insurance companies merging, I'd hate to be a medical office assistant as doctors figure out they can lay off some of the billers and coders.

    While it's true that it's foolhardy to "do what you love and the money will follow," students paying big bucks for education need to focus on fundamentals. Take a challenging subject, figure out what you like to do, and work that into your entry level job search plan. Shortcuts to the huge salaries/signing bonuses are only temporary. If you get caught out, and hate what you studied, you're really stuck.

    I'm not bragging or trying to hold myself out as a huge success story, but slow and steady has worked well for me. I watched all the dotcom millionaires from a relatively boring, old-line job where I learned a ton of fundamental knowledge that continues to serve me well. Now we're seeing the bubble ready to pop again, complete with the Silicon Valley companies funded with imaginary VC cash catering to new grads with adult preschool work environments. Now is not the time to go into CS -- 5 years ago was the time.

    1. Re:Lesson - never chase fads with your education by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Take a challenging subject, figure out what you like to do, and work that into your entry level job search plan.

      I had a roommate who spent $25,000 to learn automotive design on the West Coast in the late 1990's. During four years of school, he worked at the grocery store. After graduating from school, he still worked at the grocery store. If he haven't gotten married to woman who thought a little further out into the future than he did, he would still be working a grocery. Now he's doing warehouse logistics to pay down his student debts. He took automotive design because he likes cars. Go figure.

    2. Re: Lesson - never chase fads with your education by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree with you but disagree with the sentiment that 5 years ago was the time to get in. Sure, the vast majority of CS majors will not go very if they are only driven by monetary incentives, but those with fundamental skills will succeed in the long run even if they start now.

      Many have seen the various booms, busts, and lulls in the industry since the 1970s, and one pattern is clear: good devs and engineers tend to do well when the dusts settles.

    3. Re:Lesson - never chase fads with your education by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I went into CS because getting a B. S. was something that was considered part of a career path. Before 2000, one could be any college major and find decent work. Well, I had internships, multiple positions lined up... and graduated in December of 2008... to the job fair only consisting of the Army recruiter, and him saying that no matter what you score on the ASVAB, you get MOS 11X... or MOS 11X, as all other choices were full. No other branch bothered with recruiting, as the Marines had their few good men, the Air Force had their quota, and the Navy's ship had sailed. Had it not been for a temporary gig that paid almost nothing I was doing (but I had to finish for a good reference), I probably would have signed up, even though I was in my mid 30s. Better to be running in underarmored vehicles, clutching a weapon made by the lowest bidder [1], than to sit unemployed.

      Well, took me over a year to find solid meaningful work, even with experience in enterprise IT going from 1991, just because 2009, businesses were concentrating on hanging on for dear life . What got me the job wasn't my degree... it was my old Oracle, AIX and Solaris certificates, and from there the RHCE and MCSE-track certs kept me going.

      My degree? Pointless. Waste of time, and with the time it took between graduating and finding work, the student loans I took almost doubled in debt. Getting it has meant my credit rating takes a major hit (even with no late payments) because student loan debt is viewed as extremely bad. Nobody held a gun to my head and demanded I take the loans, but who would have thought before 2008 that a degree from an accredited institution would not be worth the paper it is printed on.

      My recommendation: Fuck CS. You wind up either a dev, fighting for the scraps that are not offshored with H-1Bs. Or, you go into IT, and hope that the waves of the economy don't get you pink-slipped if the stock market hiccups. If you want to be a dev or go into IT, you can do those things by getting your certs, which are far more attractive to HR people (the ones who you have to deal with before you are even let near the tech people.)

      [1]: AK based weapons win wars. ARs win defense contracts.

    4. Re:Lesson - never chase fads with your education by Bengie · · Score: 1

      You wind up either a dev, fighting for the scraps that are not offshored with H-1Bs. Or, you go into IT, and hope that the waves of the economy don't get you pink-slipped if the stock market hiccups

      Stop looking for a job that makes you easily replaceable. Code monkeys can be replaced with other code monkeys. Don't be a code monkey. My managers don't tell me what to do, they come to me for advice.

    5. Re:Lesson - never chase fads with your education by Archwyrm · · Score: 1

      You had a 4 year degree and you were about to enlist..? There is clearly more to this story. In '08 anyone with a degree and a heartbeat could get an OCS contract. Anyway, sorry to hear that almost joining up has left you so bitter.

      --
      Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power. -- Mussolini
  5. Correlation and causation are for cows. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are all cows. Cows say moo. MOOOOOOOOO! MOOOOOOOOO! Moo cows MOOOOOOOOO! Moo say the cows. YOU COWS!!

    1. Re:Correlation and causation are for cows. by moosehooey · · Score: 1

      I'm not a cow, I'm a moose!

    2. Re:Correlation and causation are for cows. by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I'm a spherical cow. I say "roolllin' roolllin'", not "moo moo"

    3. Re:Correlation and causation are for cows. by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Someone had to roll all those cow pies.

    4. Re:Correlation and causation are for cows. by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      but are you on a frictionless surface in a vacuum?

      --
      Time to offend someone
    5. Re:Correlation and causation are for cows. by Archwyrm · · Score: 1

      Every time I read this, I start to believe it a little bit more.

      --
      Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power. -- Mussolini
  6. Correlation does not.... by TheP4st · · Score: 1

    Someone managed to find two graph curves that overlap nicely, but have little else to support their theory. How unusual. *Yawn*

    --
    "I have downloaded hundreds and hundreds of records, why would I care if somebody downloads ours?" Robin Pecknold
    1. Re:Correlation does not.... by erapert · · Score: 1

      Right?

      SJW articles every other fucking day, obvious political shilling every week, and then the bunk science articles that the editors can barely form a link to...
      I really expected much better from /.
      If this kind of bullshit keeps cropping up on the front page then I'm going elsewhere for my tech news.

      Editors take note. You're killing /.

    2. Re:Correlation does not.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      here's an idea, why don't you submit stories that you'd like to see?

    3. Re:Correlation does not.... by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Tech is over until the next big thing. Nano technology?
      If there are only 20 or so ways to perceive the universe, once they're all plugged into the supercomputer built into your contact lens, really what's left?

  7. Butter Production in Bangladesh by ardmhacha · · Score: 3, Interesting

    And the S&P500 correlates with butter production in Bangladesh.

    http://business.time.com/2009/...

    Correlation, causation etc.

    1. Re:Butter Production in Bangladesh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for the tip! My global butter future investment portfolio will surely benefit from this.

    2. Re: Butter Production in Bangladesh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We must subsidize dairy farms in Bangladesh then!

    3. Re: Butter Production in Bangladesh by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      Well the US government already subsidizes cotton producers in Brazil so why not.

      --
      Time to offend someone
  8. Uh huh by halivar · · Score: 1

    Did the submitter get this off of Spurious Correlations?

  9. Don't need STEM gimmicks, just normal capitalism by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    Supply-and-demand works, who knew.

  10. Tablizer's Bubble Rule by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    "If there is constant debate about whether we are currently in a bubble, we are probably in a bubble."

  11. Excellent! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This should mean we will see total revenue generated by arcades increase!

    After all, the data is right here:

    http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

  12. I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's a Republican lie that the stock market has any effect on the average person. Only the rich and wealthy care about those things.

  13. Finally! by Tyrannosaur · · Score: 2

    We have found a way to get more women to enroll for CS! All we have to do is make the NASDAQ really high!

    1. Re:Finally! by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Ham Radio licenses are a much tighter correlation. About 10% across all countries and cultures.

  14. Sounds like bunk to me. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    This might be of use to the people furiously commenting away.

    http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

  15. IT Degree Better than Most by onkelonkel · · Score: 1

    We love to mock people who spend 4 years and rack up $120k in student loans to get a degree in Art History and end up flipping burgers for a living. We should have a certain amount of sympathy for people who (quite sensibly) get degrees in fields that at the time had good employment prospects, and then got blindsided by boom-and-bust industry cycles.

    --
    None of them can see the clouds; The polished wings don't care.
    1. Re:IT Degree Better than Most by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We should have a certain amount of sympathy for people who (quite sensibly) get degrees in fields that at the time had good employment prospects, and then got blindsided by boom-and-bust industry cycles.

      We should tell people about jobs that have a boom and bust cycle, so that they have a better idea what they are getting in to.

  16. Correlation != Causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you take the data that is presented at face value, you could come to the other conclusion, that excessive CS grads would soon cause the NASDAQ to topple.

  17. Note the bolded part of your quote & the irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... we still can't get competent editors at slashodt. Certainly there must have been someone who minored in English or Journalism who could take care of these atrocious front-page grammar and readability issues? I've seen better writing in comment sections of code written by people who learned English as a third or fourth language.

    See subject...

    APK

    P.S.=> Sorry man - but, even YOU must admit, THAT was there for the taking... apk

  18. so long and thanks for all the fish by rossdee · · Score: 1

    "I'd like to see a breakdancing porpoise."

    I'd rather not - the thing that comes next is a Vogon fleet to build an interstellar bypass