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Computer Science Enrollments Match NASDAQ's Rises and Fall
dcblogs writes: In March 2000, the NASDAQ composite index reached a historic high of 5,048, at just about the same time undergrad computer science enrollments hit a peak of nearly 24,000 students at PhD-granting institutions in the U.S. and Canada, according to data collected by the Computing Research Association in its most recent annual Taulbee Survey. By 2005, computer science enrollments had halved, declining to just over 12,000. On July 17, the NASDAQ hit its highest point since 2000, reaching a composite index of 5,210. In 2014, computer science undergrad enrollments reached nearly, 24,000, almost equal to the 2000 high. Remarkably, it has taken nearly 15 years to reach the earlier enrollment peak.
I graduated in 1997, just in time to watch the tech bubble inflate to full capacity and pop. I wasn't a CS grad, but wound up in IT. I did notice that a lot of people were starting CS majors while I was in school. Are there really only 24,000 undergrad CS students? Maybe they're just talking about people who finish.
There was an NPR piece a while back about undergrad Petroleum Engineering programs being super-hot and producing grads that got 6-figure salaries at the top of the fracking boom. Cue the stories of undergrads taking huge loans out, spending years studying a field that has reduced employment prospects when they get out. (Almost every law school grad is experiencing this now due to some of the same factors we in IT have, such as offshoring and wage deflation.)
The new grad market is ruthless and demand spikes get flattened out way faster than a typical education cycle. Remember the huge boom in the healthcare field for nurses and allied health professions? It's still there but nowhere near what it was a while back. Now with all the insurance companies merging, I'd hate to be a medical office assistant as doctors figure out they can lay off some of the billers and coders.
While it's true that it's foolhardy to "do what you love and the money will follow," students paying big bucks for education need to focus on fundamentals. Take a challenging subject, figure out what you like to do, and work that into your entry level job search plan. Shortcuts to the huge salaries/signing bonuses are only temporary. If you get caught out, and hate what you studied, you're really stuck.
I'm not bragging or trying to hold myself out as a huge success story, but slow and steady has worked well for me. I watched all the dotcom millionaires from a relatively boring, old-line job where I learned a ton of fundamental knowledge that continues to serve me well. Now we're seeing the bubble ready to pop again, complete with the Silicon Valley companies funded with imaginary VC cash catering to new grads with adult preschool work environments. Now is not the time to go into CS -- 5 years ago was the time.