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Obama's New Executive Order Says the US Must Build an Exascale Supercomputer

Jason Koebler writes: President Obama has signed an executive order authorizing a new supercomputing research initiative with the goal of creating the fastest supercomputers ever devised. The National Strategic Computing Initiative, or NSCI, will attempt to build the first ever exascale computer, 30 times faster than today's fastest supercomputer. Motherboard reports: "The initiative will primarily be a partnership between the Department of Energy, Department of Defense, and National Science Foundation, which will be designing supercomputers primarily for use by NASA, the FBI, the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Homeland Security, and NOAA. Each of those agencies will be allowed to provide input during the early stages of the development of these new computers."

34 of 223 comments (clear)

  1. In 30 years, this is our next cell phone. by GoodNewsJimDotCom · · Score: 3, Funny

    But can it run Crysis?

    1. Re:In 30 years, this is our next cell phone. by Jumunquo · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, but it can figure out you suck at the game.

    2. Re:In 30 years, this is our next cell phone. by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 5, Funny

      But can it play Crysis?

      ftfy. :)

      --
      Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
  2. And the NSA? by Otome · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What would the existence of an exascale supercomputer mean for today's popular encryption/hashing algorithms?

    1. Re:And the NSA? by Fallen+Kell · · Score: 2

      A PL3/PL4 nightmare for the people building and running it...

      --
      We were all warned a long time ago that MS products sucked, remember the Magic 8 Ball said, "Outlook not so good"
    2. Re:And the NSA? by swillden · · Score: 5, Informative

      What would the existence of an exascale supercomputer mean for today's popular encryption/hashing algorithms?

      Nothing, nothing at all.

      Suppose, for example that your exascale computer could do exa-AES-ops... 10^18 AES encryptions per second. It would take that computer 1.7E20 seconds to brute force half of the AES-128 key space. That's 5.4E12 years, to achieve a 50% chance of recovering a single key.

      And if that weren't the case, you could always step up to 192 or 256-bit keys. In "Applied Cryptography", in the chapter on key length, Bruce Schneier analyzed thermodynamic limitations on brute force key search. He calculated the amount of energy required for a perfectly efficient computer to merely increment a counter through all of its values. That's not to actually do anything useful like perform an AES operation and a comparison to test a particular key, but merely to count through all possible keys. Such a computer, running at the ambient temperature of the universe, would consume 4.4E-6 ergs to set or clear a single bit. Consuming the entire output of our star for a year, and cycling through the states in an order chosen to minimize bit flips rather than just counting sequentially, would provide enough energy for this computer to count through 2^187. The entire output of the sun for 32 years gets us up to 2^192. To run a perfectly-efficient computer through 2^256 states, you'd need to capture all of the energy from approximately 137 billion supernovae[*]. To brute force a 256-bit key you'd need to not only change your counter to each value, you'd then need to perform an AES operation.

      Raw computing power is not and never will be the way to break modern crypto systems[**]. To break them you need to either exploit unknown weaknesses in the algorithms (which means you have to be smarter than the world's academic cryptographers), or exploit defects in the implementation (e.g. side channel attacks) or find other ways to get the keys -- attack the key management. The last option is always the best, though implementation defects are also quite productive. Neither of them benefit significantly from having massive computational resources available.

      [*] Schneier didn't take into account reversible computing in his calculation. A cleverly-constructed perfectly-efficient computer could make use of reversible circuits everywhere they can work, and a carefully-constructed algorithm could make use of as much reversibility as possible. With that, it might be feasible to lower the energy requirements significantly, maybe even several orders of magnitude (though that would be tough). We're still talking energy requirements involving the total energy output of many supernovae.

      [**] Another possibility is to change the question entirely by creating computers that don't operate sequentially, but instead test all possible answers at once. Quantum computers. Their practical application to the complex messiness of block ciphers is questionable, though the mathematical simplicity of public key encryption is easy to implement on QCs. Assuming we ever manage to build them on the necessary scale. If we do, we can expect an intense new focus on protocols built around symmetric cryptography, I expect.

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  3. It's for the ... by CaptainDork · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ... NSA data center and stuff.

    --
    It little behooves the best of us to comment on the rest of us.
  4. But... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Will it blend?

  5. some of the challenges by necro81 · · Score: 4, Informative

    IEEE Spectrum had an article last year describing some of the challenges we'll need to overcome in order to achieve exascale computing.

    Here's another, somewhat pessimistic piece they posted in 2008 - a digest of a DARPA report that went into significant technical detail.

    The biggest hurdle is power, and the biggest driver of that isn't the actual computation (i.e., the energy to perform some number of FLOPS), but rather moving that data around (between cores, to/from RAM, across a PCB, and among servers). Other hurdles include how to manage so many cores, ensure they are working (nearly) concurrently, how to handle hardware failures (which will be frequent given the amount of hardware), and writing software that can even make use of such technology in anything approaching optimal fashion.

    Not to say its impossible, merely hard given the present state of things and projecting a bit into the future. But as we know, "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." [source?]

  6. 30 Times Faster? by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 5, Interesting

    For most specific problems thrown at supercomputers, you can go 30 times faster with a custom hardware architecture baked into silicon

    To go 30 times fast for general purpose supercomputing, you use the latest silicon (2X) and more chips (15X) and come up with a super new interconnect to make it not suck. This would involve making some chips that support low latency IPC in hardware.

    They are free to send me a few billion dollars, I'll get right on it and deliver a 30X faster machine and I'l even use some blue LEDs on the front panel.

    --
    I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
  7. Likely a new gift for the NSA by mrflash818 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What would the existence of an exascale supercomputer mean for today's popular encryption/hashing algorithms?

    Exactly.

    My first thought was the new addition will be tasked by the NSA/FiveEyes to break encryption for intercepted communications.

    --
    Uh, Linux geek since 1999.
    1. Re: Likely a new gift for the NSA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      AC is angry at Obama because Obama put AC on a watch list? Which came first? Help me out here.

    2. Re:Likely a new gift for the NSA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      if the new computer is 30x faster than the fastest one currently deployed and in use.. you've got

      1x for weather (noaa),
      1x for health (nih),
      1x for science (nsf),
      1x for nasa, and
      1x for energy (doe);

      and each of those organizations will be thrilled at having the extra computational power.. that leaves the equivalent of 25 left over for the unconstitutional, illegal, and/or classified shit that they really want it for. the legitimate uses is what they use to sell it and justify its expense, while distracting everyone from what they're really going to use it for (i.e. its true intended purpose).

    3. Re:Likely a new gift for the NSA by TigerPlish · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Weather guys want this after NSA's done.

      We'll take a side of phased-array weather radar to go with that, too.

      --
      The "Civilized World" jumped the shark ca. 1973.
    4. Re:Likely a new gift for the NSA by Orp · · Score: 5, Informative

      Weather guys want this after NSA's done.

      I'm a weather guy - running cloud model code on Blue Waters, the fastest petascale machine for research in the U.S. I don't think we've managed to get any weather code run much more than 1 PF sustained - if even that. So it's not like you can compile WRF and run it with 10 million MPI ranks and call it a day. Ensembles? Well that's another story.

      Exascale machines are going to have to be a lot different than petascale machines (which aren't all that different topologically than terascale machines) in order to be useful to scientists and in order to no require their own nuclear power plant to run. And I don't think we know what that topology will look like yet. A thousand cores per node? That should be fun; sounds like a GPU. Regardless, legacy weather code will need to be rewritten or more likely new models will need to be written from scratch in order to do more intelligent multithreading as opposed to mostly-MPI which is what we have today.

      When asked at the Blue Waters Symposium this May to prognosticate on the future coding paradigm for exascale machines, Steven Scott (Senior VP and CTO of Cray) said we'll probably still be using MPI + OpenMP. If that's the case we're gonna have to be a hell of a lot more creative with OpenMP.

      --
      A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and bulbous, got me?
    5. Re:Likely a new gift for the NSA by aaaaaaargh! · · Score: 2

      How would you run secret programs on a computer shared with NOAA and NSF? The NSA don't need it, they have their own supercomputers. Even their budget it secret.

    6. Re:Likely a new gift for the NSA by dj245 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Weather guys want this after NSA's done.

      I'm a weather guy - running cloud model code on Blue Waters, the fastest petascale machine for research in the U.S. I don't think we've managed to get any weather code run much more than 1 PF sustained - if even that. So it's not like you can compile WRF and run it with 10 million MPI ranks and call it a day. Ensembles? Well that's another story.

      Exascale machines are going to have to be a lot different than petascale machines (which aren't all that different topologically than terascale machines) in order to be useful to scientists and in order to no require their own nuclear power plant to run. And I don't think we know what that topology will look like yet. A thousand cores per node? That should be fun; sounds like a GPU. Regardless, legacy weather code will need to be rewritten or more likely new models will need to be written from scratch in order to do more intelligent multithreading as opposed to mostly-MPI which is what we have today.

      When asked at the Blue Waters Symposium this May to prognosticate on the future coding paradigm for exascale machines, Steven Scott (Senior VP and CTO of Cray) said we'll probably still be using MPI + OpenMP. If that's the case we're gonna have to be a hell of a lot more creative with OpenMP.

      I'm not a weather guy, but my understanding is that a somewhat fixed weather model (set of calculations) is used to do a kind of finite-element analysis on small areas. With better computing and better radars, smaller and smaller areas can be calculated, which results in more accuracy.

      With more computing power, could you not vary the parameters or constants used in the weather model, then run the finite-element analysis over the entire weather area again? You could be running hundreds or thousands of slightly different weather models, then apply some processing to figure out which is most likely- either by averaging together the 50% most similar outcomes, or by some other method. I don't think you could peak out a supercomputer with that method if you kept adding more parameter variations, although you may get to the point where adding more parameter variations doesn't improve accuracy.

      Maybe that's an incorrect understanding, but we're getting closer to the point where we can calculate all possible outcomes simultaneously. I wouldn't have expected this to be the case with weather but computing has come a long way in the last 20 years.

      --
      Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
    7. Re:Likely a new gift for the NSA by Orp · · Score: 2

      You are basically describing ensemble forecasting, which is very powerful for providing statistically meaning forecasts where you can intelligently talk about the uncertainty of the forecast, something single deterministic forecasts cannot do.

      In my research, I'm doing single deterministic forecasts to study what happens with tornadoes in supercell thunderstorms, where I am cranking up the resolution to capture flow that is otherwise unresolved. I get one version of a particular storm, which is good for studying certain aspects of storms, but not good at being able to generalize (that takes lots of simulations).

      Both big deterministic simulations and ensembles have their place. Of course, today's big simulation can be the resolution of tomorrow's ensembles! Right now, you can do lots of good science with ensembles. Operationally (weather forecasting) this is basically the new paradigm, although forecasters are slow to change from just looking at the single deterministic GFS and NAM forecasts. The ensemble approach, once we start running hundreds of forecasts at higher resolution that we do today, will transform our forecasting accuracy (and precision). However it will be limited to the amount of good observational data we can feed the models (otherwise GIGO). This is where remote sensing comes in. GOES-R will be a big help.

      It will indeed take people from atmospheric science, computer engineering, software engineering, etc. working together to best exploit exascale machines. NCSA understand this and that's what makes it (and other similar organizations) great.

      --
      A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and bulbous, got me?
  8. Re: Gotta love these executive orders by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    And random person freaks about because President exercises his lawful authority to tell agencies and departments under his jurisdiction to cooperate and present a plan for creating a supercomputer.

    Here is a hint:

    Sec. 7. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

    the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or
    the functions of the Director of OMB relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
    (b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

    (c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

    It is like nobody knows how the government operates any more, but if Obama does it, they're opposed, damn opposed.

  9. Classified Data by Etherwalk · · Score: 4, Interesting

    What would the existence of an exascale supercomputer mean for today's popular encryption/hashing algorithms?

    Exactly.

    My first thought was the new addition will be tasked by the NSA/FiveEyes to break encryption for intercepted communications.

    Why are you assuming they don't already have one doing that, and this is just a public version?

    There is a lot of highly secured government data infrastructure out there that I hear about even though not inquiring. The cable in Virginia that gets cut by a backhoe accidentally and guys in a black van show up ten minutes later. The contract for a government data center inside a faraday cage. The government likely already has much more computing power available than we know about.

    1. Re:Classified Data by ILongForDarkness · · Score: 2

      I agree. The very fact we'll know where this datacentre is probably means it will be being used for relatively lower security stuff. The exascale supercomputer for actually analyzing the NSA intercepts probably already exists.

  10. Exascale? We don't need that. by the_humeister · · Score: 3, Funny

    640 petaflops ought to be enough for anybody.

  11. Department of Homeland Security by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Who in their right minds would let these people near a computer? Please. Let them go back to what they excel at: stealing cameras out of our luggage and groping underage genitalia.

    1. Re:Department of Homeland Security by cdrudge · · Score: 2

      You do realize that the TSA is only about 1/4 of DHS by number of employees and 12% of the budget, right? I think you're really selling short the amount of damage they excel at if you only go with stealing cameras and groping underage genitalia.

  12. easy b/c avg time from order to delivery 4.5 years by raymorris · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Those issues will be resolved by a side effect of this being a government order. According to the GAO, on average it takes 4 1/2 years from the time the government orders a computer until it's installed. Right now, multiple government agencies have been told to start thinking about a plan. In two years (2017), each agency will have their plan and they'll start working to to resolve the differences between agencies. In another year (2018), they'll put out some RFPs. Those will go through the federal procurement process and the order will be placed about two years later (2020). That's when the 4 1/2 year average clock starts, so expect installation around first quarter 2025.

    The goal is that it should be 30 times faster than TODAY'S computers.
    And be operational in ten years. They can pretty much just order a Nexus 47, or an HP Proliant gen 12.

  13. Fix the economy by ChadSmith4920 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Mine Bit Coins

  14. The next executive order by ChrisMaple · · Score: 2

    Synthesize the unicorn genome, to provide fuel for transportation and buy the votes of little girls.

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  15. This order is worthless without funding by acoustix · · Score: 3, Insightful

    He can attempt to mandate all he wants. Congress approves the budgets. And since we all know how well Obama has been submitting his budgets....

    --
    "A plan fiendishly clever in its intricacies"- Homer Simpson
    1. Re:This order is worthless without funding by acoustix · · Score: 2

      If you even had a basic idea of how the Constitution works, the President's budget is basically for show. Congress is entirely responsible.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIbkoop4AYE

      Sorry, but you're wrong.

      Congress generally begins its budget process once the President submits his budget. The President is required by law to submit a comprehensive federal budget on or before the first Monday in February (31 U.S.C. 1105(a))

      --
      "A plan fiendishly clever in its intricacies"- Homer Simpson
  16. Re:aaaaaaannd.... by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 2

    And democrats have a hard on. Yes President Obama can create anything through executive action.

    Just like all the others.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    Or do you just want REpublicans to have that?

    Rage on!

    --
    The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  17. Re:Linux, Linux, Linux, Linux by lucm · · Score: 3, Funny

    Don't worry, they are planning to use Oracle Linux. They are currently using the 2nd most powerful computer in the world to calculate how much the license will cost.

    --
    lucm, indeed.
  18. Exascale machines are for scientific computing by gentryx · · Score: 2, Informative

    These Peta/Exascale supercomputers are build for computer simulations (climate change, nuclear weapons stewardship, computational drug design, etc.), not for breaking encryption. That's also one reason no one is using them to mine Bitcoins: they're just not efficient at that job. To compute lots of hashes, dedicated hardware designs (read: ASICS) far outpace "general purpose" supercomputers.

    --
    Computer simulation made easy -- LibGeoDecomp
  19. FBI? Hmmm..... by Dr.+Blue · · Score: 2

    I see people speculating above about the government using this to break crypto, but that's really not a huge concern. If people use good keys that require brute force searching, even the smallest AES key size would take over a billion millenia to break at 10^18 ops/second (even assuming you could test a key on one "op"). And for people who use bad keys, you don't need exascale computing to break them.

    So what could the FBI use something like this for? What about analysis of massive public and not-so-public data, like data mining Internet postings, email/phone records, ... Better not post something with the wrong combination of words, or someone might come knocking on your door.

  20. Re:Dictator dictating is a Dictator by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 2

    Now if you want to hate on Obama, you could argue that this supercomputer will be designed by indentured servants from India, using components made in Malaysia, and assembled in China. And it will likely be true.

    But, you can just call him names too, that's good.