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ARIN IPv4 Addresses Run Out Tomorrow

jcomeau_ictx provided that teaser of a headline, but writes: Not really. But the countdown at tunnelbroker.net should go to zero sometime tomorrow around noon, considering it's at 45,107 as I write this, it's counting down about one address every two seconds, and there are 86,400 seconds per day. Just happened to notice it today. Might be worth a little celebration at every NOC and IT enterprise tomorrow.

18 of 215 comments (clear)

  1. Re:wft ever dude! by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 2

    Yes, but there really isn't, since large chunks of those IP addresses aren't being used...

    And that is the problem with the system, lots of IP blocks are taken, but unused and hard to get back.

    Frankly, this is all pointless, IP6 fixes this for... more or less, ever...

  2. Re:Wait Wait Wait... by RabidReindeer · · Score: 4, Funny

    I thought they ran out last year, until I saw the report of them running out last month.

    I thought they ran out last month, until I saw the report of them running out last week.

    I though they ran out last week, now I see they'll run out tomorrow.

    Perhaps someone should start reporting facts rather than what ever you call all these reports.

    Xeno's IPv4 Paradox.

  3. Re:wft ever dude! by bunratty · · Score: 3, Informative

    There aren't four billion public IP addresses in use. The problem is that in the early days they handed out class A subnets like they were candy, wasting millions of IP addresses with every one. Most computers don't have their own public IP address -- they have a private IP address and access the Internet via NAT.

    --
    What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
  4. Re:wft ever dude! by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 2

    You joke, and you're of course right to a point, but there comes a point where you have enough IP addresses for every grain of sand on Earth.

    We likely won't care within our lifetimes :)

  5. Re:IPv4 is for 32-bit cows. by ArcadeMan · · Score: 5, Funny

    (to the tune of "99 bottles of beer on the wall")

    4,294,967,290 cows in the field, 4,294,967,290 cows...
    Move one aside, add one more cow, 4,294,967,291 cows in the field...

    4,294,967,291 cows in the field, 4,294,967,291 cows...
    Move one aside, add one more cow, 4,294,967,292 cows in the field...

    4,294,967,292 cows in the field, 4,294,967,292 cows...
    Move one aside, add one more cow, 4,294,967,293 cows in the field...

    4,294,967,293 cows in the field, 4,294,967,293 cows...
    Move one aside, add one more cow, 4,294,967,294 cows in the field...

    4,294,967,294 cows in the field, 4,294,967,294 cows...
    Move one aside, add one more cow, 4,294,967,295 cows in the field...

    4,294,967,295 cows in the field, 4,294,967,295 cows...
    Move one aside, add one more cow... hey, where did all my cows go?

  6. No, it won't be a problem. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Yes, it is the exact same behavior. But it won't be a problem, because unlike IPv4, IPv6 isn't going to see any significant adoption, ever.

    1. Re:No, it won't be a problem. by Bengie · · Score: 2

      Some CDNs are seeing 18%-40% of web requests from AT&T, Verizon, or Comcast are over IPv6. IPv6 is still growing at an exponential rate for almost a decade now, about 100% per year. At the current about 10% of all USA, given 100% growth that hasn't shown any signs of stopping, we'll be at 40% in two years and 80% in 3 years.

  7. Re:Africa has all the addresses by Geordish · · Score: 3, Interesting

    AfraNIC do not have a shitload of addresses. They have around 2.5 /8's.

    Back before the exhaustion policies kicked in, ARIN were burning through a /8 every couple of months.

    This is why taking back the legacy address allocations will not really be worth the time or effort. There is more demand than availability. If there was free reign allocation over it all, it would be gone before the year is out.

    Move to IPv6 already.

  8. Re:Slashdot crying wolf again... by Lumpy · · Score: 2

    They also are just being sat on. Corperations need to have them forcibly taken back as those asshats will never give them up willingly.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
  9. Since we keep talking about the same thing.... by haus · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...I may as well just refer to an old comment...

    http://slashdot.org/comments.p...

  10. Re:wft ever dude! by ShaunC · · Score: 2

    The problem is that in the early days they handed out class A subnets like they were candy, wasting millions of IP addresses with every one.

    This is correct, and we should continue efforts to reclaim IPs from entities sitting on massive swaths of unused space. Eli Lilly surrendered part of their unneeded allocation, for example. I say forget the corporate blocks for now until the emergency is a bit more dire. While companies like Halliburton and Ford Motors can't possibly have a need for a full /8, trying to recover from them is likely to present legal challenges.

    Instead, why don't we take a look at how many /8s are reserved for militaries? 6.0.0.0/8, 7.0.0.0/8, 11.0.0.0/8, 21.0.0.0/8, 22.0.0.0/8, 25.0.0.0/8, 26.0.0.0/8, 28.0.0.0/8, 29.0.0.0/8, 30.0.0.0/8, 33.0.0.0/8. It goes on well through the IPv4 space but I got bored of looking them up, and just those represent more than 180 million IPs that could be released for public use. Networks like SIPRNET aren't publicly routed and don't need public IPs. Most of these blocks are entirely unused on the public internet. Of course the military has plenty of valid, publicly accessible services, but they don't have 180 million of them.

    As a taxpayer, I would much rather see these chunks of IP space SWIP'd out to ISPs who can justify their need instead of being destined to forever sit around dormant and registered to the military.

    --
    Thanks to the War on Drugs, it's easier to buy meth than it is to buy cold medicine!
  11. Re:wft ever dude! by Geordish · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Back before the exhaustion policies kicked in, ARIN were burning through a /8 every couple of months.

    This is why taking back the legacy address allocations will not really be worth the time or effort. There is more demand than availability. If there was free reign allocation over it all, it would be gone before the year is out.

    Move to IPv6 already.

    Oh, and 11/8 recently became routable.

  12. Re:Wait Wait Wait... by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

    In 2011, they ran out from IANA. Now they are running out in ARIN, which is the supply allocated to North America.

    After this the only way to get IP addresses will be to pay a broker. The cost will go up and up over several years, until IPv6 is adopted, then the price will go down. IPv6 is already being rolled out in several places, so it's not an impossibility. Your phone more than likely uses IPv6, for example.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  13. Re:The sky is falling! News at 10. by phantomfive · · Score: 2

    The big question is: why haven't the telcos moved home / small business over yet?

    I asked the owner of an ISP that question. The answer was basically, money. The transition will cost money, and there is zero upside to spending that money before you have to.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  14. Re:wft ever dude! by Xtifr · · Score: 4, Insightful

    For the moment, I think we can limit ourselves to the number of atoms in the solar system. One rough estimate is that there are 10e29 stars in the universe. If the atoms were divided up approximately evenly between these star's systems, then there'd be 10e82/10e29=10e53. So we have one IPv6 address for each cluster of 10e15 atoms.

    Except! I've heard it estimated that about half the matter in the solar system is in the sun, and we don't want to use up the sun to build computers, because we need it to power the computers. So, 10e14 atoms per IPv6 left to work with.

    So the question before the audience is:can you build a device that implements an IPv6 stack and a minimal radio transmitter that allows it to communicate with other, similar devices, using only 10e14 atoms? If so, or if it can be done in less, then we may have a problem*. Otherwise, I think we should be fine for now.

    (To give you a rough estimate of what you're working with:10e14 atoms of silicon would mass about 46 nanograms.)

    Submit your solutions to iwannahelpdestroytheworld@weregonnafreakingcreatethesingularity.com :)

    * Although the problem may not be manifest until we convert the *entire* Earth, core and all, into these devices, along with all the other planets, and colonize the Oort cloud, and do the same there. :)

  15. Re:Well it is half true by sjames · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Actually, it was never crying wolf. The wolf was actually there, it's just that it was a long way off in the '90s. It has been headed our way in a strait line ever since. You needed a telescope to see it in the '90s, now you don't even need to squint.

    And apparently, a warning that far in advance wasn't enough since there are still a lot of organizations with their pants down. How pathetic is that?

  16. Re:wft ever dude! by CSMoran · · Score: 2

    s/10e/1e/g

    --
    Every end has half a stick.
  17. Re:wft ever dude! by hairyfeet · · Score: 2

    Am I the only one that sees IP V6 as a "cure" worse than the disease? From everything I've seen it looks like a police state and media cartels wet dream, the ability to assign a unique address to every.single.device like a digital fingerprint so they can trivially trace back every statement, every video watched, every move, for later prosecution? Am I the only one having a problem with this idea, or is the idea of always being under the all seeing electric eye something the young folks simply accept and don't care about?

    --
    ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.