Can Cuba Skip Cell Phone Connectivity?

lpress writes: Cuba has a second generation cellular network and Internet access is limited to about 5% of the population via work and school accounts and (mostly dial up) access in a few homes, so it was big news when they rolled out 35 public WiFi hotspots. Can they expand this public WiFi and skip 3G and 4G cell infrastructure until 5G equipment is available in about five years? By then, the US trade embargo will be gone, the Cuban economy will be improved and 5G and other wireless technologies will be available. Will they even need cell phone capability by then? The linked post has some interesting musings that apply to places other than Cuba, as well.

Comments

People have to be careful

[fustakrakich]

You make communications too cheap and easy, and there won't be any profit in it...

Re:People have to be careful

[rtb61]

Excuse but US trade embargo will have not much at all to do with Cuba. It is all about US tourist going to Cuba (legalising Cannabis will promote that faster than anything else) and some Cuban products going to the US. Why the hell would Cuba import anything from the US when the US imports it all from China. Let's be honest Cuba just wants US dollars (for as long as they last) to buy stuff from Russia and China.

Re:People have to be careful

[Karmashock]

That will be controlled by the market unless the government subsidies overwhelm it.

If I supply so much of X that it exceeds demand and drives the market price below the production cost of X... then that will stop investment in supply and probably cause supply to contract.

Supply will contract until such time as the demand price increases to some number above the production cost.

That's just fundamental economics. You can't both over supply a market AND have that over supply continue indefinitely without subsidies. Which means while you can get points in time when the supply exceeds demand... over time... supply tries very hard to provide just ENOUGH to meet demand.

Its much more common for supply to be BELOW demand rather than above it. Take the supply of submarines or rocket ships or whatever... There's much more demand for a lot of things than there is supply to meet that demand. At any price the world can only produce so many hand made sports cars built in some Italian factory. There's a limit. And the high ticket price of such things is largely a rationing system.

You get similar things in healthcare... and that shows the limits of subsidies. Even if you throw money at something you're only going to get so many of X and throwing more money at eventually gives you diminishing returns.

Labor issues, resource limitations, space constraints, logistics.

Point is that Cuba can't sustainably provide more communication to the people than the people either want or can pay for.

Re:People have to be careful

[ultranova]

At any price the world can only produce so many hand made sports cars built in some Italian factory. There's a limit. And the high ticket price of such things is largely a rationing system.

True but meaningless. The world can produce enough cars for everyone. It can even produce enough sport cars for everyone. The attributes "hand made" and "built in some Italian factory" are slapped on to turn an otherwise ordinary product into a status symbol, who's defining feature is exclusiveness. It has no consequences for people who simply want to get from point A to point B fast and thus need a (fast) car.

In other words, "hand made sports cars built in some Italian factory" are primarily the modern equivalent of Imperial Purple of ancient Rome: they advertize their owner's social position. They simply happen to have some utility as cars as well.

What this all means is that the economics of hand made sports cars have nothing to do with economics of communications. Everyone can't be richer than everyone else, but even the poorest person in a country could be well wealthy enough to have a 100 Mbit Internet connection on their cellphone. And in fact the wealthier they are, the more likely they are to participate in the economy, politics, culture etc. in a productive manner; for example this discussion is more likely to produce good ideas and expose bad ones as such than if all of us sat on a carboard box somewhere and tried to forget our growling stomachs.

Point is that Cuba can't sustainably provide more communication to the people than the people either want or can pay for.

It can, however, change the relative costs of various options to steer development away from local optimum towards true optimum, or even infinity. "Cost" here can involve either money, punishments for undesirable behaviour, or extending willpower to resist indoctrination. Theoretically, this can lead to better outcome due to planning ahead of time and thus having better coordination; in practice, this planning needs to be done by someone, and that someone is chosen from candidates filtered and heavily targeted by various interest's propaganda, leading to the reality-disconnected insanity we see in politicians and other powerful people all the time.

Luckily, better communications also make untrue indoctrination harder to maintain. There's a reason why, for example, religious fundamentalists oppose - either via terror like in Afghanistan or via sabotage like in the US - education: it might not destroy the student's faith in God, but sure does destroy the illusion that the group's dogma is God's will. It's why censorship is nearly synonymous with tyranny, and why everyone who's nation is building national firewalls or other such infrastructure can be certain there's nasty surprises in store. If you've done nothing wrong you have nothing to hide, after all.

Re:People have to be careful

[Karmashock]

... You're claiming that there are billions of sports cars available for sale right now?

Here you might say "COULD be made"... not really. The economic system would collapse if it even tried to do that.

As to status symbols... who said the product had to make sense? If people want cod pieces hand made by a famous artist then that's what they want. The artist is in scare supply by definition thus giving the status symbol value.

But if you'd prefer something less silly we can talk about jet engines. Can we produce a jet engine for everyone? No. We cannot produce 5~7 billion jet engines.... we do not have the industrial base to do that. And even if we did, we wouldn't do it because it is inefficient

As to "true" optimum... you don't know what that is.... People always cite what they think something should cost as what the market should charge for it. There is no intrinsic value. A box of shit is not inherently worth more than the greatest collective works of art of all humanity.

What gives something value is our opinions of it or our desire for it to accomplish some goal. But when you cite your opinion of value as if everyone else should share it or the market should share it... you are either arrogantly presuming to tell everyone how they should structure their economy or you're just confused as to how the markets work.

You don't assign value for the market. The market assigns value. it is a democracy of dollars. People voting with their wallets. If they find something to be a good idea they'll buy it. If they don't they won't.

As to the inevitable collapse of the final communist failures... yes. Their stupid ideology is doomed. It is ironically holding on strongest in the US... amongst our neo peasantry. But the ambitions of that sad ideology are quickly becoming moot... our industrial and economic systems are shifting beyond the reference frame of their conceptual model.

Re:People have to be careful

[Zontar The Mindless]

People don't seem to understand the difference between a need and a want anymore.

Nor are they supposed to.

Re:People have to be careful

[Severus Snape]

Excuse but US trade embargo will have not much at all to do with Cuba. It is all about US tourist going to Cuba (legalising Cannabis will promote that faster than anything else) and some Cuban products going to the US. Why the hell would Cuba import anything from the US when the US imports it all from China. Let's be honest Cuba just wants US dollars (for as long as they last) to buy stuff from Russia and China.

Let's be honest, US has only brought Cuba back in to the peace because of the current geo-political situation.

Re:People have to be careful

[ultranova]

... You're claiming that there are billions of sports cars available for sale right now?

No. Like with all design decisions, "sports" implies tradeoffs in other areas which are more valuable to most people. Furthermore, all people don't want a new car right now, and it makes sense to delay production as long as possible since technology keeps developing.

Or did you perhaps confuse "everyone can have a car" with "everyone can have an infinite number of cars"?

As to status symbols... who said the product had to make sense?

Status symbols make perfect sense in a class-based society. However, they obey different economic rules than mass-produced goods, because status symbol's utility comes from its exclusiveness, while a mass-produced good's utility comes from its functionality (and thus doesn't go down when more is produced, and in the case of phones actually goes up).

But if you'd prefer something less silly we can talk about jet engines. Can we produce a jet engine for everyone? No. We cannot produce 5~7 billion jet engines.... we do not have the industrial base to do that. And even if we did, we wouldn't do it because it is inefficient

Right, so what does this have to do with either cell phones or cars?

Also, you do realize that small jet engines exist, right?

What gives something value is our opinions of it or our desire for it to accomplish some goal. But when you cite your opinion of value as if everyone else should share it or the market should share it... you are either arrogantly presuming to tell everyone how they should structure their economy or you're just confused as to how the markets work.

Failing to account for externalities, in this case opportunity costs, is a well-known failure mechanism in market-based price forming.

it is a democracy of dollars.

It's an odd democracy where one person gets to cast hundreds of times as many votes as another. In fact it sounds more like a dictatorship to me.

As to the inevitable collapse of the final communist failures... yes. Their stupid ideology is doomed. It is ironically holding on strongest in the US... amongst our neo peasantry.

Ironic, yes, but predictable. As soon as the communist block collapsed, the upper classes began looting everyone beneath them - because what are these "neo peasants" going to do about it, start a new revolution? Which they will, once their situation gets bad enough, which it will, because the rich and powerful can always get a little more so by squeezing a little harder. So the cycle will repeat itself until one revolution actually manages to solve the inherent problems of capitalism (specifically, that wealth tends to concentrate towards the top without limit) through sheer dumb luck if nothing else. Whether it'll call itself communism, social democracy, anarcho-whatever or something else is irrelevant; either way, it's capitalism that's doomed, or at least delegated to guiding developing economies through Industrial Revolution to the Information Age. This might even mean perpetual existence, should we ever get serious about colonizing space.

It's not the Marx's and Lenin's who'll bring forth the downfall of capitalism, but the Trump's and Koch brothers.

But the ambitions of that sad ideology are quickly becoming moot... our industrial and economic systems are shifting beyond the reference frame of their conceptual model.

And that shift is taking them to a place where most people have little to look forward to except flipping burgers and waiting to see how they're screwed over next. The ideological structure of capitalism is starting to get

Re:People have to be careful

[Gallomimia]

Milk is profitable still. So are eggs. Trust me, everything that matters will remain fairly profitable. Governments will guarantee it.

Not only do I disagree, governments are specifically involved to manipulate the markets for milk and eggs and make small-players unable to compete. Not only does profit not need to matter anymore, neither does money, nor governments. Economics, government regulation, and even profits aren't changing their tunes fast enough to keep up with technology today. It will outpace and outstrip them all for usefulness. 5 Years is my estimate.

Re: People have to be careful

[fustakrakich]

And I would say that any two way radio communication device is a good survival aid in these *modern times*. Wouldn't you agree?

so fast your head will spin

[rubycodez]

I've seen a third world country go from pots lines to buried fiber, superior internet speed to most USA major cities, ubiquitous 3.75G mobile internet....in less than 10 years. And Cuba is smaller and less populous.

I'll wager by 2025 most Cubans traveling to USA will be complaining about the shit internet and shit cellular here.

Re:so fast your head will spin

[TWX]

Countries have played technological leap-frog for some time. The United States was ahead of many European nations until their rebuilding after WWII made it necessary to put in new equipment, equipment that was arguably better than what the United States didn't have to replace in the first place.

As to Cuba and cell phones, it all depends on how much rural coverage they want and how much potential disruption in urban areas they want in order to put in ubiquitous urban networks. Personally, if they're going to install conduit they may as well design a very open and versatile "layer 0" to allow for easy future growth or revision, regardless of what technology might be vogue at the time.

Re:so fast your head will spin

[rubycodez]

it's the size of Kentucky though, I think in five years they'll make Kentucky's situation look bad

Re:so fast your head will spin

[Gravis Zero]

I'll wager by 2025 most Cubans traveling to USA will be complaining about the shit internet and shit cellular here.

LOL! How much are you willing to wager? I would like to point out that Cuba's regime clamps down hard on communications technologies. They fear rebellion because they are tyrants.

Re:so fast your head will spin

[drinkypoo]

it's the size of Kentucky though, I think in five years they'll make Kentucky's situation look bad

I'd already rather move to Cuba

A "phone" is already obsolete.

[mcrbids]

I don't have a phone line for my home. Instead, I have a VOIP MagicJack that cost me about $20/year for unlimited calls. It is wired in place of my old phone line in my home, the old land line phones work the same way as always.

At my business, we replaced all telephone equipment with VOIP equipment. Audio quality is better than cellular, not quite as good as the old land line, but is plenty good enough, and we can have representatives take calls anywhere over wifi or any other Internet connection.

Over 90% of my use of my cell "phone" is for Internet-related activity, and the phone is really just one of many apps on the phone consuming data.

The idea of a "phone" is already obsolete. Why are we doing this, again?

Re:A "phone" is already obsolete.

[Nutria]

Drive beyond the suburbs and disabuse yourself of the notion that everyone lives within range of a Wi-Fi station.

Re:A "phone" is already obsolete.

[Nutria]

We have an office in a small, very remote town.

And the people who live 8-10 miles outside of town?

the entire area is blanketed with 4G LTE through ATT/Verizon/TMo.

IOW, cell networks.

I climbed a remote mountain.

Wi-Fi access on top of the remote mountain?

Or was a cell tower erected?

Re:A "phone" is already obsolete.

[Goragoth]

Agreed. The faster we move to all telecommunications being treated as raw data the better. Of course the old telecom giants hate this idea and are fighting it tooth and nail but it's inevitable. Give it a few years and there will be no more phone lines, no more "talk minutes", no more SMS. Just plain old data, and everything else will exist on top of that. Developing countries like Cuba have a chance to get ahead of the game without the inertia of decades of shitty business practices by the telcos.

Re:What are you smoking?

[KGIII]

They are obviously not thinking this through. I admit that I have only been to Cuba twice but, well, I suspect that is more than most but it does not make me an expert.

First, there are lots of remote people - comparatively. Second, some of them live in some rather extreme terrain. Look at how long Castro was able to hide from Batista's army... Those mountains and jungles are still there. There are still people there.

Yes, they *can* skip cellular. No, they won't. Why the hell would they? They may be a small island on a map but, really, they are bigger than that - those are just scaled maps... Sheesh... It is not pink like it is on the map either. ;) It is not like their entire population lives in one area and that area is bigger than a thumb. Sheesh again.

Anyhow, there is some issue with the country nationalizing and taking stuff. I do not think anyone is going to get their money back, however. The mafia lost some money and there are some rumors that it was hidden and never recovered from a couple of documentaries that I have watched. That should be, as well as the lawsuits, an interesting side show. I would expect some sort of agreement that says the nationalization resulted in a loss of property and that there is no recovery method even through the courts. At least I hope that is how it goes. Otherwise the courts will be tied up with idiocy of that nature and will be quite expensive due to the likely lack of information, time that passed, and a mixture of laws as well as American unfamiliarity with the laws. They are NOT going to let the legal actions take place on American soil. Not even a chance of that happening no matter who is in charge.

Meh... So far, I am liking Raul. Fidel was awesome but, frankly, he was also a dick. We, on the other hand, were far worse than he ever was. We were also more stupid. But, in our defense, we did have some hilarious assassination and coup plans and attempts.

Why not skip legacy technology?

[plopez]

Avoid the costs of infrastructure build out of obosolete tech and associated main. cost. This is actually an advantage developing countries have, the ability to jump right to leading edge tech without the baggage of older tech hanging around.