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The Boeing 747 Is Heading For Retirement

schwit1 writes: After 45 years of service, Boeing's 747, the world's first jumbo jet, is finally facing retirement as airlines consider more modern planes for their fleets. The article gives a brief but detailed outline of the 747's history, and why passengers and pilots still love it. From the article: "The 747 was America at its proud and uncontaminated best. 'There's no substitute for cubic inches,' American race drivers used to say and the 747 expresses that truth in the air. There is still residual rivalry with the upstart European Airbus. Some Americans, referring to untested new technologies, call it Scarebus. There's an old saying: 'If it ain't Boeing, I ain't going.' A comparison to the European Concorde is illuminating. The supersonic Anglo-French plane was an elite project created for elite passengers to travel in near space with the curvature of the Earth on one hand and a glass of first growth claret on the other. The 747 was mass-market, proletarianising the jet set. It was Coke, not grand cru and it was designed by a man named Joe. Thus, the 747's active life was about twice that of Concorde."

20 of 345 comments (clear)

  1. Summary sucks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Typical dicenuts

    1. Re:Summary sucks by nedlohs · · Score: 5, Informative

      Total sales over the last ten years don't seem that relevant to the "heading for retirement" claim. Just like total profits over the last ten years don't mean anything when considering if a company is growing or shrinking.

      You need to see how the numbers are changing since "heading" is a claim about the direction of change not the quantities.

      So taking orders (rather than deliveries since we care about the future) from 2005 through 2014 (2015 isn't done yet) we get - there are negatives because you can cancel:

      747: 43, 72, 21, 3, 2, -1, -1, 1, 12, 0
      380: 20, 7, 23, 9, 4, 32, 19, 9, 42, 13

      To smooth things more for the 747 (380s are too new to bother) the 5 year order totals for 747s starting with 1966-70 and ending with 2010-15 are:

      198, 103, 253, 126, 377, 104, 168, 90, 97, 16

      Sure 2015 isn't over yet, maybe they'll get 80 orders in the next few months (making for their 2nd highest ever year) but that doesn't seem likely. However, orders have clearly plummeted in the last 5 years (lucky you picked 10 to use to hit the bumper year of 2006).

      And yes given those order numbers "on the way out" seems reasonable enough.

  2. Upstart? Scarebus? Comparison to Concorde? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Come on editors. I know this site is US centric, but do we really need the flag waving? Aside from anything else it will polarise and divert the debate from the real topic, the 747.

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    1. Re:Upstart? Scarebus? Comparison to Concorde? by Joce640k · · Score: 5, Insightful

      One of the major reasons the Concord didn't do very well was that the USA banned it from their airports out of jealousy before it had even flown.

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    2. Re:Upstart? Scarebus? Comparison to Concorde? by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Insightful

      At the time of the 747s creation, Airbus didn't exist. The 747 project was launched in 1965, Airbus was formed in 1969.

      Boeing developed the 747 passenger variant solely because its main customer asked it to, otherwise it would never have launched it.

    3. Re:Upstart? Scarebus? Comparison to Concorde? by Richard_at_work · · Score: 5, Informative

      Concorde was actually banned from all US airports for a short time in the early 1970s, until legal challenges forced various airports to rescind their bans.

      The Boeing 707 was also louder and produced more exhaust smoke than Concorde ever did, and yet no one had issues with them operating at US airports ;)

    4. Re:Upstart? Scarebus? Comparison to Concorde? by segedunum · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Then what was that Concorde-looking plane that landed at my (US) city's international airport back around 1975, belching soot and making a thunderous noise?

      Possibly a Boeing 707 if you weren't looking. The 747 wasn't exactly quiet with its four engines. They were horrifically loud belchers and their engines simple couldn't compare with Rolls Royce or any of the British based Bristol stuff from that era. Still can't quite frankly.

      The sonic boom and noise stuff was a convenient excuse. It was a source of great embarrassment at the time that US aviation didn't have the aerodynamic expertise to build a supersonic passenger plane. The Soviets undertook a pretty extensive espionage programme at the time which culminated in the Tu-144, but they could never get the delta wing right to the point where the plane just could not generate the required lift. This resulted in the awkward canards you eventually saw on it and the same thinking on the canned XB-70 bomber from that time. Huge numbers of compromises and they just couldn't make it aerodynamically stable. The SR-71 was a flying, leaking fuel tank that couldn't even take off on a full tank, requiring a mid-air refuel shortly after before getting very quickly to its operating altitude. Concorde really was a long, long, long, long, long, long way ahead in what was achieved.

      If Concorde could have got on a larger number of routes then it would have been easily economically viable. Even towards the end of its career it made money and for a lot of people in the world time really is money, and in some cases worth more than the cost. With that more investment would have come, planes would have got larger, cost would have come down and the world would be a very different place.

    5. Re:Upstart? Scarebus? Comparison to Concorde? by jittles · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The SR-71 was a flying, leaking fuel tank that couldn't even take off on a full tank, requiring a mid-air refuel shortly after before getting very quickly to its operating altitude. Concorde really was a long, long, long, long, long, long way ahead in what was achieved.

      First of all, you are wrong. The SR-71 would start on a low tank of fuel because of weight considerations for the brakes and in the event of an emergency during or immediately after takeoff. Secondly it is not fair to compare the SR-71 and the Concorde at all. The SR-71 didn't leak because the designers were too stupid to build an airplane that didn't leak. If you flew the Concorde at the speeds that you flew an SR-71 it would melt into a pile of scrap or the fuel would explode. The SR-71 leaked fuel because the airframe got so hot at mach 3+ that the airframe expanded drastically. The SR-71 did not leak fuel once it warmed up. It also traveled at over 3 times the speed of the Concorde.

  3. Passengers love it? Really? by _merlin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    As a frequent flyer, I'd much rather fly on an Airbus or a 777 than a 747. The 747 is noisy, it vibrates, and it's just generally unrefined. Sure it was an impressive plane several decades ago, when the competition was trijets like the DC10, but the world has moved on. In a way I'll still be kinda sad to see an icon of 20th century aviation go. It's also a far more elegant-looking on the outside than the A380. The A380 is pretty ugly front-on, but the 747 has nice lines.

  4. What was that? by in10se · · Score: 5, Informative

    That "summary" is just a rambling pile of words.

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  5. 'There's no substitute for cubic inches' by RogueyWon · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The current trend in the airline sector seems to be away from the very large aircraft. The A380 is tanking in sales terms (only Emirates has really plunged into that market) and there's talk that Airbus might look to drop the line sooner rather than later. The 747-800 is also finding things slow going. The hot sellers right now in the wide-bodied aircraft stakes seem to be the 777, 787 and A350.

    The problem with those ultra-large aircraft is that they can be thirsty in terms of fuel, crew-intensive and, except on a small number of really "thick" routes, quite hard to fill. With the airline business mostly operating on quite thin margins, efficiency matters and the smaller, single-deck planes are looking better in that regard right now.

    Plus the A380 requires specialised ground infrastructure at airports for efficient operation, which translates into limited operational flexibility and/or higher landing charges. Also its Code-F designation means that in theory, it requires runway/taxiway widths and separations etc to be built to higher standards (though many airports are using derogations for this right now).

    The ultra-large aircraft may yet make a comeback, of course, but if they do, it's more likely to be a currently under-developed market where new very "thick" routes spring up (eg. domestic connections between Chinese cities).

    1. Re: 'There's no substitute for cubic inches' by RogueyWon · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You're not wrong as such, but it's a little bit more complicated than that. The truth is that neither the hub-and-spoke model nor the point-to-point model has "won" right now and it's likely that both are going to continue side-by-side for many years to come.

      A bigger issue is that a lot of the airlines who are pursuing the hub-and-spoke model have nevertheless stayed away from the A380 and 747-800 (some have dabbled, but with small purchases). It's a rare route where, even operating out of a major hub, you can fill an aircraft that large multiple times per day. There are a few, sure (London - New York, for instance), but those are the exception rather than the norm.

      Emirates are clearly trying to make the A380 a cornerstone of their Dubai hub strategy and part of their brand. But Emirates has a distinctive financial situation, with very deep pockets behind it and a strategy that's currently about buying market share rather than making profits. I don't know where that will end up in the longer term (particularly if low oil prices are here to stay for a decade or so).

    2. Re: 'There's no substitute for cubic inches' by Solandri · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The problem with those ultra-large aircraft is that they can be thirsty in terms of fuel, crew-intensive and, except on a small number of really "thick" routes, quite hard to fill. With the airline business mostly operating on quite thin margins, efficiency matters and the smaller, single-deck planes are looking better in that regard right now.

      It isn't the large size which makes them thirsty for fuel. It's the fact that they have 4 engines. When it comes to propulsion, fewer is more efficient. The 777 and A340 are roughly the same size (300-400 passengers), and the 777 beat the A340 into a bloody pulp in the market (1881 orders vs 377) because it uses 2 engines vs the latter's 4 engines. It was so bad when Airbus proposed the A350 as a competitor to the 787, airlines seized the opportunity and got Airbus to redesign the A350 to be a little bigger so it would also compete with the 777.

      People are looking at the flagships and thinking the A380 had something to do with the 747's demise. It's actually the 777 which cannibalized the 747's market. The newest 777-9X is pretty much a drop-in replacement for the 747-400 (the most successful model). Because 2 engines is better than 4.

  6. Re:Passengers love it? Really? by RogueyWon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It depends which model of the 747 you're on. There's a big difference in terms of noise and vibration between a 747-400 and a 747-800. They may look very similar from outside, but there are massive differences in engines, as well as substantial refinements to the airframe on the later models.

  7. Re:Passengers love it? Really? by Nidi62 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In a way I'll still be kinda sad to see an icon of 20th century aviation go. It's also a far more elegant-looking on the outside than the A380. The A380 is pretty ugly front-on, but the 747 has nice lines.

    It'll still be around for a while yet, as quite a few are operated by cargo lines as cargo jets. Watching one of those take off is pretty cool though: they rotate about halfway down the runway then stays in that position almost to the end before it gets enough lift to start gaining altitude. Looks like it's doing a wheelie down the runway. And funny you should bring up the A-380. A coworker of mine has promotional material from Boeing back from the 70s/80s where they were trying to push a fully double-decked 747. That design really is hideous no matter who makes it.

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  8. Poor comparison by sir-gold · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I have no idea why the comparison between the Concorde and the 747 was even made in the first place. The 2 jets were made for entirely different purposes.
    The Airbus A380 would be a better comparison, since it has the same intended purpose as the 747 (massive amount of seating and cargo space for cheap flights)

    Also, Boeing was working on it's own version of a luxury supersonic competitor to the Concord (the Boeing 2707 SST), but the project ended up being cancelled before it was ever mass produced (mostly due to to all the sonic-boom issues related to flying over land)

    Comparing the 747 to the Concorde is like comparing a double-decker bus to a stretch-ferrari limousine

    1. Re:Poor comparison by Richard_at_work · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The Boeing 747 has its instantly recognised "hump" precisely because Boeing thought at the time of its design that it wouldn't have a long sales life as a passenger aircraft, as the future was "obviously" supersonic for passenger transport. Therefore, the design was optimised for roll-on roll-off cargo transport through the nose section, which made it a very good cargo aircraft and thus increased its forecasted sales life.

      Of course, Boeing also had a finger in the supersonic airliner pie - the Boeing 2707, launched internally in 1958, and publicly in 1964. Boeing had 122 orders for their SST by 1969, the year their 747 aircraft first flew.

      And then the SST market collapsed due to the oil crisis of the 1970s, and everyones projects went under - Concorde only "survived" to fly on in airline service (British Airways and Air France) because it was further along than the Boeing 2707 and had actually produced production standard aircraft by the time airlines started dropping their orders from all manufacturers.

      So Concorde was not an elite project for elite passengers, it was intended to be the norm for passenger transport - and Boeing agreed. Market conditions swung against them both however, and it was never to be.

      Boeing went on to continue to market their 747, and Airbus (formed from the same agreements that created the Concorde) went on to produce the first twin engine wide body long haul aircraft in the A300 in the 1970s, which sold (together with its A310 variant) sold over 800 copies.

  9. Summary = Troll by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Look, I'm an American but the summary is a ludicrous troll.

    Some Americans, referring to untested new technologies, call it Scarebus.

    Maybe some people working for Boeing. I've never once heard anyone use that term in my life.

    There is still residual rivalry with the upstart European Airbus.

    "Residual rivalry"? Uhh, no. Try huge and ongoing rivalry between the two biggest players in the industry. This is Coke v Pepsi. Ali v Fraser. Ford v GM. The notion that the rivalry isn't still alive and well is simply absurd.

    "Upstart"? A company with revenue of 60 Billion Euros is hardly an upstart. For comparison Boeing has revenues of about $90 Billion. It may have been an upstart many decades ago but upstart isn't a description that has fit for a very long time.

    A comparison to the European Concorde is illuminating.

    No it really isn't. It would be hard for it to be less illuminating. The Concorde was an experiment that didn't work out as well as hoped and likely was a bit ahead of its time. Had it worked out better we might very well have seen more supersonic aircraft. It was truly a first of its kind. The 747 was in many ways far more conservative and conventional - just a bigger and incrementally improved version of stuff we mostly already knew how to do. We'd already made aircraft that large (see the B52 which is about the same size and came 15 years earlier) and while the 747 was impressive it wasn't unprecedented. Ask anyone if they'd rather fly on the Concorde or a 747 and I'm pretty sure you wouldn't find many takers for the 747.

  10. Re:Jesus H. Christ by msauve · · Score: 4, Informative

    it's there's no replacement for displacement. You ignoranus.

    "There's no substitute for cubic inches," goes at least back to the 1950's, as shown by this Car & Driver article from 1957. I suspect the one you use came later, and developed as a cute rephrasing. But you're free to try and find a reference dating to before 1957.

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  11. As someone who experienced both..... by tekrat · · Score: 5, Informative

    The early 707s were SCREAMERS. They had a high-pitched whine that made you hold your ears when they flew over. And that was just landings, I can't even imagine take-offs. As a kid, I lived in a place called Rosedale, just a few miles from JFK airport in Queens NYC.

    The Concorde however, was a lower rumble. On landing, they weren't terribly noisy, although you heard them further out and the sound was so distinctive you knew it was coming at least 5 minutes ahead of it being visible. And what a sight! They came in at a high angle of attack, very nose-high, and with the beak of the plane drooped, and the landing gear extended, the plane looked like some kind of bird of prey about to swoop down and grab a mouse off a field.

    It does need to be noted that Concorde flew mostly while turbofans were the norm, so most planes were quieter than it. The 707 flew when most other planes were still prop-driven, and it was only in the first few years of Concorde operation that 707s still flew (they were being phased out); but even by that time, they had made some changes to the engines to make the 707s less screechy.

    That said, every plane had a distinctive engine sound, and if you lived in my area long enough, you could learn to identify which plane was flying over you simply from the sound. It got to the point where I never even had to look up, and I could name every aircraft coming over the house.

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