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An AI Hunts the Wild Animals Carrying Ebola

the_newsbeagle writes: Outbreaks of infectious diseases like Ebola follow a depressing pattern: People start to get sick, public health authorities get wind of the situation, and an all-out scramble begins to determine where the disease started and how it's spreading. Barbara Han, a code-writing ecologist, hopes her algorithms will put an end to that reactive model. She wants to predict outbreaks and enable authorities to prevent the next pandemic. Han takes a big-data approach, using a machine-learning AI to identify the wild animal species that carry zoonotic diseases and transmit them to humans.

45 comments

  1. Vaporware by tomhath · · Score: 0
    FTFA:

    If we can predict which species may carry infections capable of jumping to humans, we can monitor the potential hot spots where people interact with these creatures. One day, I hope that biologists will forecast disease outbreaks in the same way meteorologists forecast the weather.

    That's a noble goal. But there was nothing in the article indicating it actually works.

    1. Re:Vaporware by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      FTFA:

      When we tested our rodent-sorting algorithm on the 20 percent of rodents that hadn’t been included in the training data set, it predicted species’ reservoir status with about 90 percent accuracy.
      [...]
      As the algorithm sorted through the 2,200 rodent species, it provided a list of new suspects. Some species that had previously been given a “0” for unknown reservoir status fit more neatly in the “1” category of known disease carriers. We didn’t have to wait long for validation. While we were getting our results to press, two of those suspect species were indeed recognized as novel reservoirs for human diseases. One species, a red backed vole (Myodes gapperi) native to Canada and the northern United States, was found to carry the parasite that causes echinococcosis, a nasty ailment in which cysts grow in multiple organs. And researchers identified a vole (Microtus guentheri) native to Asia Minor as a newfound reservoir for leishmaniasis, which causes skin ulcers.

      Yeah, nothing to indicate this approach might work in identifying likely reservoir hosts, and also tracking conditions where a disease outbreak is more likely.

      Perhaps you should have read the WHOLE article, and not just the first paragraph or two?

    2. Re:Vaporware by gstoddart · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well, did you keep scrolling?

      Our study yielded more than scientific insights: It also provided actionable intelligence. As the algorithm sorted through the 2,200 rodent species, it provided a list of new suspects. Some species that had previously been given a "0" for unknown reservoir status fit more neatly in the "1" category of known disease carriers. We didn't have to wait long for validation. While we were getting our results to press, two of those suspect species were indeed recognized as novel reservoirs for human diseases.

      Sure sounds to me that, for the North American populations they tested this one they actually did demonstrate it actually works.

      I'm sure it's not perfect or complete, but it sure sounds like it actually created some testable results.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    3. Re: Vaporware by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you not understand science? This how science works. I know you Republicans hate science, but please at least try to work hard to get a third grade level of understanding. You Teapublicans are so ignorant.

    4. Re: Vaporware by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some Republicans are anti-science. But so to are some Democrats - homeopathic medicine, vaccination, GMO and fracking hyperbole.

      Republicans, even more so than Democrats, are a combination of different ideologies and perspectives. Most Tea Party types are for small-government and are not the anti-science types that many of the Social Conservatives are.

      If you are as rational as you pretend to be you will not be conflating, Social Conservatives, Neo-Cons and Tea Party. The three, actually, come from different wings and there is often serious antipathy among them.

    5. Re:Vaporware by tomhath · · Score: 2

      Sure sounds to me that, for the North American populations they tested this one they actually did demonstrate it actually works.

      Not really. While they were crunching numbers, other scientists not connected in any way with this project identified a couple of rodents that are disease vectors. It turned out that those two rodents were in her "maybe a vector" bucket. All that demonstrates is that those two are not false positives.

    6. Re: Vaporware by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If (african fucks monkey) then (expect outbreak).

      Code isn't too complicated.

    7. Re: Vaporware by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's just trolling because it's fun to do, sometimes ... especially as a quick little android game; see how many people will respond to your flamebait and such. He's actually a republican.

  2. Ebola gets deadlier by penguinoid · · Score: 0

    A new strain of ebola causes animal to start bleeding as if they'd been shot...

    --
    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
    1. Re:Ebola gets deadlier by penguinoid · · Score: 0

      (For the humor impaired, the "hunt" is identifying species likely to harbor ebola based on matching various traits such as number of litters per year).

      --
      Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
    2. Re:Ebola gets deadlier by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you have to explain it, it was a shitty joke.

    3. Re:Ebola gets deadlier by penguinoid · · Score: 1

      If you confuse a serious response as an explanation of a joke, then you're a shitty moron.

      --
      Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
  3. Re: The Democrats will fight this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes ... true. Mmmmm hmmmm.

  4. Wild Animals? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    While I realize that Ebola outbreaks tend to originate in under-developed or war-ravaged parts of the world, it seems a bit harsh to refer to the first victims as "wild animals". :(

    1. Re: Wild Animals? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why? That is how Republicans view us. How they view us.

    2. Re: Wild Animals? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No that is how Republicans view Democrats and how Democrats view Republicans. They've both got their head shoved so far up their ideologies that they think they aren't the same. Just this morning, I read an article where a bunch of Democrats in New York City are trying to keep poor minority students in the poor minority school, but it isn't racist because they aren't Republicans. You are everything you say you hate out of Republicans and you will lose votes because of it and the worst thing is that you don't even think you are doing it.

  5. Re: The Republicans will fight this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Liberalism is a mental illness.

  6. Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by The+Faywood+Assassin · · Score: 0

    Sometimes I wonder if we need a massive epidemic to bring the human race back into balance.

    But then I think "Except for my friends and family", which ends up bringing me back to the beginning of my thought experiment.

    --

    "I'm a humble person really,

    I'm actually much greater than I think I am"

    1. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by swb · · Score: 1

      Isn't it just a matter of time? Pandemics have swept through humanity fairly regularly. Modern countries seem to have escaped them for the most part recently, partly because they've got stuff like fresh water and septic systems, partly because medical science inoculates against some of them, and partly because self-awareness has enabled us to minimize others (AIDS).

      But it seems like eventually something will come along that none of those things does much for, at least in the short term.

    2. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Reduced population is absolutely required for real sustainability but fortunately we have real world examples of an ethical and humane solution to curb the population. Take a look at the birth rate in countries where education and healthcare, particularly for women, is high and you will see the population shrinking without any kind of coercion. It should be a no-brainer to focus foreign aid specifically on education and healthcare.

    3. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by fredrated · · Score: 1

      Sometimes I think we are like the fire-suppressed forests. We have been putting out fires for a hundred years, letting the understory build up until finally a fire feeds on this accumulated fuel and rages unstoppable. As disease suppression allows the human understory to build relentlessly, one day a disease will come along that rages through the population.

    4. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What? You're advocating the 12 Monkey's solution?

    5. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by internerdj · · Score: 2

      We are making some changes on that front. We are starting to look critically at overuse and misuse of anti-biotics. We are starting to look positively at some of the things that grow inside of us. Of the many things we do terribly, we actually might be able to turn this one around before it bites us too badly.

    6. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by The+Faywood+Assassin · · Score: 1

      Yes, I guess I am.

      --

      "I'm a humble person really,

      I'm actually much greater than I think I am"

    7. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by The+Faywood+Assassin · · Score: 1

      The min-use of antibiotics and the decreasing vaccination rate is going to set the stage for a pretty bad epidemic.

      It's only a matter of time.

      --

      "I'm a humble person really,

      I'm actually much greater than I think I am"

    8. Re:Maybe we actually need fewer humans. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What is wrong with you people openly calling for mass death. Do you not realize that you are a monster?

  7. Re: The Republicans will fight this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But it's the Republicans that want us to die from Ebola. To die from Ebola.

  8. PROOF by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    EBOLA VIRUS = 11
    JADE HELM = 9

    9/11

    This is conclusive proof.

    AI will track all humans and decide which to genocide in the coming climate change disaster.

    1. Re: PROOF by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is what the Teapublicans want. That want it.

    2. Re:PROOF by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Genocide implies all...

  9. Re: The Republicans will fight this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Republicans are working hard to make Evola spread like wildfire. Like wildfire. They hate us and want us to die. They're the mental ones. Mental ones.

  10. Please Ignore This Post. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

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    133,230,220,105,92,41,55,46,245,40,244,102,143,54, 65,25,63,161,1,216,
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    100,109,198,173,186, 3,64,52,217,226,250,124,123,5,202,38,147,118,126,
    255,82,85,212,207,206,59,227,47,16,58,17,182,189,28,42,223,183,170,213,
    119,248,152,2,44,154,163,70,221,153,101,155,167,43,172,9,129,22,39,253,

    Redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without
    modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are
    met:

      Redistributions in binary form must list of conditions in the
          documentation and/or other materials provided with the distribution.

    Captcha: Sorcery

  11. Need the data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    AI and analytics and all is great, but that's easy, just engineering. Getting the data is hard, especially for ebola. It crops up in remote areas and spreads very quickly, and you only learn about it when it's already an emergency. You have to trace it back during the emergency because there's no way to get the data prior, the areas are simply too remote. Without that data, this is at best a thought exercise.

  12. easy to prevent by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

    She wants to predict outbreaks and enable authorities to prevent the next pandemic.

    it's easy to prevent, you just need good sanitation laws. the problem we face is corrupt governments who don't give a flying fuck about their people. there is a reason that outbreaks start in poor areas with bad/no sanitation practices.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    1. Re:easy to prevent by SuricouRaven · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ebola gets a lot of attention because it's high-mortality, spreads fast in the right conditions, and is a wonderfully messy way to die - and that means lots of newspaper sales and TV ratings.

      It's the influenzas you have to look out for. People don't pay attention any more after the bird flu and swine flu fizzled out without producing the pandemic everyone was fearing - and perhaps the next one will do likewise. Eventually, though, we'll get another really nasty strain and it'll be 1918 all over again. Fifty million dead last time - people forgot quickly.

      Ask most people today about the 1918 pandemic and most wouldn't know about it - and of those that do know, half of it only know it from a passing mention in Twilight.

  13. AI? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So now computer models are AI? Wow.

  14. Re: The Republicans will fight this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Republicans are insane. They hate everyone, HATERS! But noone and I mean noBODY is going to pop my biscuit. When you peel back the skin from the republicans heart it smells like the feces of a thousand demons. I've seen the lemons in the night and they will FUCK YOU LIKE YOU DESERVE. You people need to wake up. Go on and laugh, and mark me a troll, but if you keep pissing up those ropes you've been pissing on you are going to have ti climb them sooner or later. And Death is waiting there, just laughing at you and playing his fiddle and eating his pudding pie.

  15. greenwow - here's a new word for you by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Please read the definition of "Perseveration". Yet more proof (as if we needed it) that you are crazy.

    1. Re: greenwow - here's a new word for you by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh no! You found me out. Your Anonymous Cowherd has compromised my own Anonymous Cowherd persona. I'm back to square one! SQUAAAARE OOOOOONE! Fuck my monkey in a drainpipe! Where are your cameras you fucking REPUBLICAN!

  16. How Ebola spreads .. by nickweller · · Score: 2

    "Outbreaks of infectious diseases like Ebola follow a depressing pattern: People start to get sick, public health authorities get wind of the situation, and an all-out scramble begins to determine where the disease started and how it's spreading"

    I though Ebola spread because of the traditional burial practices of the indigenous peoples. Namely some traditional healer traveling from the next village over, performing a 'purification' ritual, consisting of a crude form of embalming and 'sitting in' with the deceased. The healer goes back to her home village and dies from Ebola. People from miles around attend the funeral and go back home and spread Ebola. Over three hundred cases from the one funeral ref.

    1. Re:How Ebola spreads .. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Eh, the real problem is people eating bushmeat.

  17. "Are you carrying Ebola?" by Culture20 · · Score: 1

    Anyone else imagine Arnold calling up wild animals from a pay phone?