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The #NoEstimates Debate: An Unbiased Look At Origins, Arguments, and Leaders
New submitter MikeTechDude writes: Estimates have always been an integral part of the software development process. In recent years, however, developers, including Woody Zuill and Vasco Duarte, have begun to question the efficacy, and even the purpose, of using estimates to predict a project's cost and time line. A fierce debate has sprung up on Twitter, between those calling for an end to estimates and those who continue to champion their use in a professional setting. On the surface, it would appear that the debate is black and white. Proponents of the #NoEstimates Twitter hashtag are promoting a hard stop to all estimates industry-wide, and critics of the movement are insisting on a conservative approach that leaves little room for innovation. However, the reality of the debate has unfolded in far more complex, nuanced shades of gray. HP's Malcolm Isaacs digs deep and pinpoints where the debate started, where it now stands, and what its implications are for the future of software development. Meanwhile, Martin Heller offers his less unbiased approach with his post, #NoEstimates? Not so fast.
Not so. The second one has a correct and professional answer: "I do not know. This will require a pre-study. But adding new requirements during the process is right out, then the pre-study has to be repeated and the project reset." and on the pre-study you _can_ deliver a reasonable estimate.
It is not only bosses demanding infeasible things. It is also coders not enlightening them on what is possible and what is not.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Finish your draft late? Publisher won't pay you.
That's more common than you think. Especially if you're not already an established name, contracts usually have terms stating that if you don't meet the deadline, the publisher has the right to cancel the contract, and demand return of the advance (if any). Whether they actually exercise this right or not varies.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
The second one has a correct and professional answer: "I do not know. This will require a pre-study. But adding new requirements during the process is right out, then the pre-study has to be repeated and the project reset." and on the pre-study you _can_ deliver a reasonable estimate.
Ha, ha, yeah, and the response to that is going to be: "You have N days to finish it and I don't mean the pre-study. Get it done or else.", where N is wildly inadequate.
There are *several* formulas to do an estimate and several more to tell you if your estimates are on track.
If you understand why estimates are required, you are a business person, if you understand why they are so difficult you are a developer. Managing estimates is a 'Project Management' task and a good PM will keep the pressure of the team by also managing the stakeholder expectations, which is what we are really talking about here.
Complex estimates are closer to the contract and simple task estimates are closer to the metal. If anyone asks for an 'accurate estimate', run - they are an oxymoron who won't de-scope so that deliverables are met. To me it is an immediate sign of project failure.
Estimates are just a tool that are a balancing act for getting the budget required to do something. Good estimates are achievable by iterating three simple questions pessimistic, realistic and optimistic estimation for a smaller task of a large project. After that there are several other formula to determine if you are ahead, behind or on schedule. Ahead or on schedule - great, behind - de-scope. What the final product looks like is a function of the contract that determines the critical path and managing the expectations to get there. Estimations on a small project however are usually a waste of time.
The last thing you want to do is go back to an accounting department or client for more budget because the estimates are way off anymore than having no estimate at all and asking for a big bucket of money that won't get approved and no developers will ever get employed to do that project.
Using 120 characters to discuss such a complex subject, that can't possibly hope to encapsulate the arguments required to understand it, is pointless.
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
Then change careers retard!
I can't stand morons who complain about how much they hate an industry only to refuse to leave it.
Why do you think it is saturated in the first place?!
The entire reason "Software Development" is such a shitty career path is because of all the dead-wood/H1Bs/dumb-ass wannabe "game-devs"/ and people who are too stubborn to put a fork in a dead career and re-train.
Fun fact: too many starving animals in a small cage are miserable. Sound familiar? Change cages!
Watching logging companies fight over tablescraps of what is left of the Lumber/paper industry is just as pathetic as listening to you piss and moan about what a sad victim you are because they exported your job to H1B visas.
The Fed has interest rates low, the money isn't stuck in the banks, so what is your excuse?