Slashdot Mirror
Police Program Aims to Pinpoint Those Most Likely to Commit Crimes
An anonymous reader writes: Using profiling algorithms, police are tracking suspected criminals to prevent them from committing predicted crimes. We're one step from locking people up for what they might do. The New York Times reports: "The strategy, known as predictive policing, combines elements of traditional policing, like increased attention to crime “hot spots” and close monitoring of recent parolees. But it often also uses other data, including information about friendships, social media activity and drug use, to identify “hot people” and aid the authorities in forecasting crime."
Interestingly, the TV series more directly addresses this idea than the movie. In the movie, the Precogs saw visions of the future, and the police acted upon those specific visions.
In the TV series, which takes place ten years after the Precrime division was disbanded, the politician presently running for office is lobbying to implement a system similar to the one described in the summary - using data mining and analysis to predict crime using raw data. The difference between then and now, however, is the amount of data being pervasively collected.
I think this sounds like a wonderful idea. I propose as a test that we use it on police departments to try and determine those officers that are most likely to abuse citizens. If it is successful in dropping those number significantly then we can talk about maybe trying it out on citizens.
"Information wants to be expensive" - Stewart Brand, the same guy who said "Information wants to be free"
If you've committed a crime, it's more likely that you, rather than someone who has never committed a crime, will commit the next crime. The term is "recidivism."
If you've never committed a crime, I think it's about a 3% chance you'll commit a serious one. (http://www.naacp.org/pages/criminal-justice-fact-sheet) However, if you have committed a serious crime, you'll about 40% likely to commit another serious one within 3 years. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/09/recidivism_and_mental_illness_iowa_s_central_pharmacy_pilot_project_is_an.html)
There's also step 2.5 to be taken into consideration.
Step 2.5: Upon release, try to make a living without committing any crimes, realize that basic survival via legal employment is even further out of reach for a convicted felon than it is for a normal denizen of your already precarious economic background.