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Police Program Aims to Pinpoint Those Most Likely to Commit Crimes

Posted by samzenpus on from the bad-actors dept.

An anonymous reader writes: Using profiling algorithms, police are tracking suspected criminals to prevent them from committing predicted crimes. We're one step from locking people up for what they might do. The New York Times reports: "The strategy, known as predictive policing, combines elements of traditional policing, like increased attention to crime “hot spots” and close monitoring of recent parolees. But it often also uses other data, including information about friendships, social media activity and drug use, to identify “hot people” and aid the authorities in forecasting crime."

18 of 244 comments (clear)

  1. Minority report. by sims+2 · · Score: 5, Informative

    I've already seen this movie, And I think its a tv series now too.

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    1. Re:Minority report. by Lab+Rat+Jason · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There is another salient movie about this... NEXT, in which "Frank Cadillac" says "Each time you look at the future, it changes"

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      Which has more power: the hammer, or the anvil?
    2. Re:Minority report. by Voyager529 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Interestingly, the TV series more directly addresses this idea than the movie. In the movie, the Precogs saw visions of the future, and the police acted upon those specific visions.

      In the TV series, which takes place ten years after the Precrime division was disbanded, the politician presently running for office is lobbying to implement a system similar to the one described in the summary - using data mining and analysis to predict crime using raw data. The difference between then and now, however, is the amount of data being pervasively collected.

    3. Re:Minority report. by postbigbang · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And none of the movies looks to underlying factors, like poverty, addiction, mental cases with weapons, peer pressures, gang influences, inability to buy legal help/get actual justice, etc.

      The PreCrime motives are unconstitutional, although conspiracy is fair game.

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      ---- Teach Peace. It's Cheaper Than War.
  2. What could possibly go wrong? by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I cannot see anything that could possibly go wrong with this idea, except for everything.

    Can't wait until it's hacked and they start arresting the police chief, the city council, and everyone with a zip code that begins with a letter or a number.

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    Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
    1. Re:What could possibly go wrong? by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      Can't wait until it's hacked and they start arresting the police chief...

      Well, that would be nice if the cops pointed this program at themselves and root out those who are most likely to commit crimes against us. It would probably empty out the department though.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  3. Time to Stop with Political Correctness by MyLongNickName · · Score: 4, Funny

    Okay, folks, it is time to get rid of the political correctness and call a spade a spade.

    There is one group of Americans who cause the vast majority of violent crimes in the United States. They commit a disproportionately large amount of homicides and make up a vastly disproportionate amount of the people in prisons across the country.

    They are responsible for being a majority of drug offenders. They cause most fights in schools and make up the vast, vast majority of high school drop outs.

    They are also responsible for a vastly disproportionate amount of DUIs.

    But political correctness will not allow us to talk about this problem. If we simply locked up this part of society, we'd all be better off.

    And I think we all know what group this is.

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    Males. Lock 'em all up and throw away the key.

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    1. Re:Time to Stop with Political Correctness by MyLongNickName · · Score: 4, Funny

      It is always fun to rile up the racists... now getting you to think is something I have yet to figure out how to do...

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    2. Re:Time to Stop with Political Correctness by sconeu · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Let me guess... you're talking about politicians?

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
  4. Selection bias by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Their tool only works (if at all) on certain categories of crime. It misses huge ones, particularly those in which the people in power engage:

    * CIA torture.
    * CIA, NSA, FBI, and police violations of the Constitution.
    * CIA perjury to Congress.
    * Bank executives' racketeering in regards to mortgage origination.

    I'd pay good money for a tool to detect those kinds of crimes, and to see them properly prosecuted.

  5. Great idea! by dirk · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I think this sounds like a wonderful idea. I propose as a test that we use it on police departments to try and determine those officers that are most likely to abuse citizens. If it is successful in dropping those number significantly then we can talk about maybe trying it out on citizens.

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    "Information wants to be expensive" - Stewart Brand, the same guy who said "Information wants to be free"
    1. Re:Great idea! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 2

      Great suggestion. Also, how about using it to find white collar criminal wannabees? Or better yet, predict which politicians will break the law.

  6. Pretty easy, based on criminal records... by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If you've committed a crime, it's more likely that you, rather than someone who has never committed a crime, will commit the next crime. The term is "recidivism."

    If you've never committed a crime, I think it's about a 3% chance you'll commit a serious one. (http://www.naacp.org/pages/criminal-justice-fact-sheet) However, if you have committed a serious crime, you'll about 40% likely to commit another serious one within 3 years. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/09/recidivism_and_mental_illness_iowa_s_central_pharmacy_pilot_project_is_an.html)

    1. Re:Pretty easy, based on criminal records... by beakerMeep · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A lot of parolees are placed at a serioius disadvantage though.
      - Have trouble getting a job due to a record.
      - Often have to pay ridiculously high fines and "fees" related to their processing and incarceration
      - Rarely get good medical treatment for addictions.
      - Were often forced into the system by a plea deal

      If we are serious about preventing recidivism, we would lay better foundations for helping these people become productive members of society.

      Sadly, the reality is that our society prays upon those least able to defend themselves. No one wants to stand up for a convicted ______.

      Here's a link about the "fees" http://nation.time.com/2013/08...

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      meep
    2. Re:Pretty easy, based on criminal records... by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 3, Informative

      >> evidence that we catch (and convict) a representative sample of criminals

      You might be looking for something called "clearance" (what percentage of crimes are resolved) and it's tracked by type of crime, region of country, size of population center, etc.
      e.g., https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/c...

  7. Re:There's an expression for that by pr0fessor · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The self-fulfilling prophecy would require the person to make the prediction about them self or have someone tell them of the prediction. It doesn't work if the police make the prediction and don't tell you about it.

  8. Re:There's an expression for that by Falos · · Score: 4, Insightful

    AC isn't just joking. You can pretty much bag people arbitrarily, even before adding this system's scrutiny. I hope the internet has memorized Richeliu's quote by now?
    "If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him."

    http://www.threefeloniesaday.c...

  9. Re:There's an expression for that by Pseudonymous+Powers · · Score: 3, Interesting

    There's also step 2.5 to be taken into consideration.

    Step 2.5: Upon release, try to make a living without committing any crimes, realize that basic survival via legal employment is even further out of reach for a convicted felon than it is for a normal denizen of your already precarious economic background.