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Fukushima: 1,600 Dead From Evacuation Stress

seven of five writes: The NYT reports that radiation-related hysteria and mistakes have cost the lives of nearly 1,600 Japanese since the Fukushima disaster. The panic to evacuate, not the radiation itself, led to poor choices such as moving hospital intensive care patients from hospitals to emergency quarters. The government's perception of radiation exposure risk, rather than the actual risk itself, may have caused far more harm than it prevented.

178 comments

  1. Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    We can't let this happen again, we must ban all nuclear related evacuations.

    1. Re:Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Have they accounted for all the Oregon and California cancer deaths over the next 20 years?

    2. Re:Oh No! by Orgasmatron · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, all zero of them have been fully counted.

      --
      See that "Preview" button?
    3. Re:Oh No! by Rei · · Score: 3, Informative

      This is going to be an unpopular post. But the premise of the article - that the accident itself caused/will cause no deaths, only overreaction - is simply not true. And their "proof by ghost reference" doesn't help things any.

      Here's proof by actual reference.

      Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730–1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein).

      Estimates not good enough? Let's try actual measurements of thyroid cancer in children:

      Assuming two years for duration on detectable level of cytology until clinical level, incidence rate ratio was 26.98 (95% confidence interval, 14.12-48.61) in the nearest area, and in Fukushima city, it was 19.41 (95% confidence interval,?9.62-37.31), compared with the Japanese mean annual incidence among those aged 15-19 years from 1975 to 2008 (i.e., 5 per 1,000,000).

      They do note that there's a risk of screening effects, but given the correlation between rates and distance from the plant, they believe that the outbreak is real and needs further study

      What did I mean earlier by "proof by ghost reference"? Their first two links just go to NYT search pages that aren't fruitful in backing up anything they claim. The third link takes some work but you can dig out the actual report in question. The NYT article describes it thusly:

      Even among Fukushima workers, the number of additional cancer cases in coming years is expected to be so low as to be undetectable, a blip impossible to discern against the statistical background noise.

      The actual report says:

      The latency time for late radiation health effects can be decades, and therefore it is not possible to discount the potential occurrence of such effects among an exposed population by observations a few years after exposure ... Among the group of workers who received effective doses of 100 mSv or more, UNSCEAR concluded that “an increased risk of cancer would be expected in the future. However, any increased incidence of cancer in this group is expected to be indiscernible because of the difficulty of confirming such a small incidence against the normal statistical fluctuations in cancer incidence.”

      Okay, so we do expect more cancer in them - the sample size however is low enough (174 people) that it's hard to prove statistical significance. But wait, this too is an indirect reference - what does its source say? Just a second, but first let's cite one more thing from the IAEA report the NYT article cites (a WHO study):

      For leukaemia, the lifetime risks are predicted to increase by up to around 7% over baseline cancer rates in males exposed as infants; for breast cancer, the estimated lifetime risks increase by up to around 6% over baseline rates in females exposed as infants; for all solid cancers, the estimated lifetime risks increase by up to around 4% over baseline rates in females exposed as infants; and for thyroid cancer, the estimated lifetime risk increases by up to around 70% over baseline rates in females exposed as infants. These percentages represent estimated relative increases over the baseline rates and are not estimated absolute risks for developing such cancers”

      But back to the UNSCEAR report: here's its section on cancer risks that the IAEA claim cited by the Times was based on:

      40. For adults in Fukushima Prefecture, the Committee estimates average life

      --
      Crowd: What do we want? Fry: Fry's dog! Crowd: When do we want it? Fry: Fry's dog!
    4. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 5, Informative

      The IAEA report on Fukushima is quite clear that no statistical increase in deaths is likely to be observed. Not for adults, children, or offspring. Even for workers at the site with the highest exposures, there will likely be no observable effects. As you say, with the workers the sample size is small to start with, so that becomes factor

      http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/P...

      Based on our experience with other exposure cases, the estimates of negative radio logical health impacts are always much higher than what we observe in reality. There are two reasons. One is that the models for estimating health effects are conservative, and two is because the estimated exposures are conservative (they assume higher doses to account for uncertainty.). I have no problem with conservative estimation, just as long as they are used correctly. So, yes, statistical deaths are real deaths, statistical illnesses are real illnesses, and thankfully we'll not likely see any from the radio logical effects of Fukushima.

      Interestingly, a tidbit is that the children thyroid exposure at Chernobyl was 1000 times that of a child in the Fukushima district. From what I can find, there is still no observed statistical increase in negative health effects associated with those exposures at Chernobyl. But I want to be clear I have not researched that thoroughly.

    5. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Informative

      By repeated layers of watering down, the story has changed from what the research (even their own sources) says - that yes, the accident will be causing many cases of fatal cancers, but we can't prove which ones are due to radiation - into a general sense of "nobody's going to get sick from this accident" in the article.

      I think you're interpenetration is a bit off. The story has not changed, and the IAEA report is very good at showing us all of the important considerations and explaining how they apply in the case of Fukushima. It is a matter of taking generic statistical modeling and taking real world factors into account, not a matter of watering things down. The risks from exposures received are extremely small, the at risk population is small, the real world sampling confirms assumptions are conservative, and therefore there is going to be no observable increase statistically.

      The report absolutely does not say "nobody's going to get sick from this accident", as you imply. It is worded quite appropriately and clearly that observable statistical impacts are not likely to be found.

    6. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      They are the foremost experts on this type of analysis, and they are not a nuclear power associated body but rather work to ensure global nuclear safety for all radio logical venues, including medical, weaponry, power, industrial, etc. You can find your personal excuse to dismiss these well documented reports, and instead believe whatever you decide, but you'll have a hard time finding the data, basis, and proven methodology presented in these reports. Do you dismiss IPCC reports on global warming as well?

    7. Re:Oh No! by Wizzu · · Score: 2

      North American Society of Homeopaths is an (presumably) an interest group.

      International Atomic Energy Agency is a regulatory and study organization, backed by UN.

      Spot the difference?

      It's a valid viewpoint to be sceptical as to the neutrality or effectiveness of regulatory organizations, but the intent and background is clearly different here.

    8. Re:Oh No! by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      "Interestingly, a tidbit is that the children thyroid exposure at Chernobyl was 1000 times that of a child in the Fukushima district."

      And a major exacerbating factor at Chernobyl was the crappy Soviet diet. If a cloud of radioactive iodine blows past Russian peasants, their bodies applaud "Yippee! Iodine at last!" not being able to distinguish it from the stable isotope. But when the same thing happens on the Japanese seacoast, the iodine-sated bodies of people with a fishy diet have no particular interest in absorbing it.

    9. Re:Oh No! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      International Atomic Energy Agency is a regulatory and study organization, backed by UN.

      Spot the difference?

      Not one bit.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    10. Re:Oh No! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

      Just in case you missed it:

      From the very first line of the IAEA's Wikipedia entry:

      The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy

      See that? "Promote"?

      Look at the membership of the IAEA. Do you see anything that sticks out? Maybe the fact that each and every member is a politician?

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    11. Re:Oh No! by Uecker · · Score: 1

      The IAEA report on Fukushima is quite clear that no statistical increase in deaths is likely to be observed. Not for adults, children, or offspring.

      This may be true, but it is rather irrelevant statement. Additional cancers causes by Fukushima are extremely hard to detect statistically because there are many people who get cancer anyway. For sake of argument, let's just assume Fukushima caused (or will cause) the death 100 people. This would not be detectable at all. Your argument is basically: Because we cannot detect it, it is not there or irrelevant. This is obviously nonsense. 100 dead people are very well a problem. Just be cause we don't "see" something doesn't mean it is not there.

      A study from Stanford estimates "130 (15-1100)" mortalities. (Ten Hoeve and Jacobson, Energy & Environmental Science, 2012) But you know this. I told you before.

      Interestingly, a tidbit is that the children thyroid exposure at Chernobyl was 1000 times that of a child in the Fukushima district. From what I can find, there is still no observed statistical increase in negative health effects associated with those exposures at Chernobyl.

      You are kidding? There was a very obvious increase in Thyroid cancers after Chernobyl. And even conservative estimates are 5000 additional deaths from Chernobyl. And this estimate if for a subset of the population (of all people affected). So this is a low estimate.

    12. Re: Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If nobody is dying from the radiation, then the evacuations were successful - their intended purpose was met: people were removed from the "dangerous" areas, and put into "safe" areas.

      The question is: if the evacuations had not been done (including the evacuations of the employees at the facility itself), how many people would have died then?

    13. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 2

      Concerning Chernobyl, you state initial estimates, but observed instances of negative health effects have been much less, which backs my points. There are studies that indicate some increase in childhood thyroid cancer instances, but if you read the details it is often within margin of error, and there are significant uncertainties with conclusions because the historical data for the locations is not good. There have been efforts to sort through the results of various thyroid studies (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22048494).

      Since thyroid cancers from childhood exposure are by for the most probable, it is a good base for a health impact assessment. Thyroid screening techniques that have been adopted since Chernobyl are much more sensitive at detecting precancerous and early cancerous cells, so everywhere these techniques are used more cases are found that would have under traditional screening if indeed there even was testing prior to the event. That further complicates the assessment of results. I certainly won't say there has been no increase.

      All we really know is that the real world observed increase in cases are less that estimated by the IAEA originally for Chernobyl. So they are certain conservative in their approach.

    14. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      They are the foremost experts on this type of analysis

      They are the foremost experts on promoting nuclear energy. It's part of their charter for goodness sake.

      Yes, it is, and they are good at it.

    15. Re:Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Interestingly, a tidbit is that the children thyroid exposure at Chernobyl was 1000 times that of a child in the Fukushima district. From what I can find, there is still no observed statistical increase in negative health effects associated with those exposures at Chernobyl. But I want to be clear I have not researched that thoroughly.

      The Chernobyl accident was much more severe than what happened at Fukushima; they evacuated Pripyat which remains a ghost town. Forty-one died from the incident and 30 years later, radiation levels in the town are still elevated.

    16. Re:Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mod up

    17. Re:Oh No! by lgw · · Score: 2

      So far, the death toll from the earthquake, tsunami and evacuation is over 4500, and over 130,000 people are still displaced, and deaths among the displaced that wouldn't have happened at home will continue. I'm sure there will also be some increase in cancer rates, but our collective fear of the nuclear boogieman is obviously what people want to talk about here instead of the actual disaster.

      Humanity's sense of "risk of harm" when comparing low-risk events is really bad.. We seem to obsess over the risk of particularly graphic dangers, even when that risk is negligible, and ignore the risks of driving, and ladders, and natural disasters in areas where they recur frequently. Evolution clearly shafted us here.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    18. Re:Oh No! by niceworkthere · · Score: 1

      Another nice part about the IAEA is that it has an over five decades old agreement with the WHO that effectively gives it free reign over how the latter handles anything related to nuclear/radiation: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki...

    19. Re: Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The question is: if the evacuations had not been done (including the evacuations of the employees at the facility itself), how many people would have died then?

      Yes, it is a balance act. It is very likely that when you minimize the amount of deaths you have equal amount of deaths from radiation and from the evacuation.
      In this case we got 1600 deaths from the fear mongering and 0 deaths from the radiation. I would say that it could have been done better.

      If no evacuation had been done at all (Apart from the ones that had to evacuate from the tsunami itself.) then I suspect that the number of dead people would have been limited to the people at the facility.

    20. Re:Oh No! by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      They are the foremost experts on promoting nuclear energy. It's part of their charter for goodness sake.

      Err no, they are the foremost expert on MANAGING nuclear energy. Actually if you were to abolish the IAEA Nuclear would suddenly lose much of the overhead that makes it so expensive to build a plant in the first place.

      But by all means ignore people who actually know track and manage the nuclear industry and go back to reading infowars.

    21. Re:Oh No! by Uecker · · Score: 1, Informative

      If you cherry-pick your sources as you obviously do, you will always confirm you ideas by finding articles like this, but it will usually be one published in a journal with no reputation at all. Both dose-response and Health-Phys are such journals operated by societies with an obvious bias. Dose-response is the journal by the dose-reponse society, formerly known as Hormesis Society which is a collection of "scientists" who think that a little bit of pollution is actually good for you. Needless to say, they get plenty of funding by certain industries. The Health Physics Society essentially became a "labor union for the nuclear industry" (as one of its own founders put it).

      Instead, I suggest you try the following strategy: Try to come up with some reasonable keywords, restrict yourself to journals with high reputation (e.g.: Nature, Science, Lancet, The New England Journal of Medicine, Radiology, etc. ), and then look at all articles which come up. As a first approximation, you can look at impact factor or google scholar metrics if you want to know what journals have a good reputation. You may learn something.

    22. Re: Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sorry, but I can't trust that number. 1,600 people died _because_ of the evacuation?

      I suspect those people who died, were going to do so whether they evacuated or not.

    23. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      I clearly said there are many studies that observed effects, you seem to have missed that. I don't deny they exist and just pointed to one of the few studies that looks at them summarily. If you want to post other studies that look at them summarily, please do, rather than just dismissing the one the one I used.

    24. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 2

      Exactly. IAEA has proven to be the most accurate when it comes to these types of studies, and they understand the mechanisms better than any other organization. They are involved in a lot of world activities which involves the UN, politics, etc.

      They promote safe, peaceful use of nuclear materials and technology. That is done by being accurate. The best promotion for nuclear is safety, the worst is non-safety. It would do more damage to project few health effects then realize many, than the opposite.

      But, people will look hard and find reasons to dismiss it, no matter how well documented and fact based it is. Many of those people cling to anecdotal FUD with no supporting data presented. That is the world we live in.

    25. Re:Oh No! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Err no, they are the foremost expert on MANAGING nuclear energy.

      Their charter is to manage nuclear weapons and to promote nuclear energy.

      Let's not pretend that the IAEA is run by scientists. They're a political organization.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    26. Re:Oh No! by Uberbah · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Err no, they are the foremost expert on MANAGING nuclear energy.

      In the same way that the Federal Reserve is the "foremost expert" on "managing" banks. When the Federal Reserve is run by the banks, for the banks, and staffed almost entirely with bankers.

      The IAEA is run by the nuclear power industry, for the nuclear power industry, and almost entirely staffed by execs from the nuclear power industry.

    27. Re:Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am moderating. Your comment is in line with facts and the reply to your argument is based in propaganda. There is a reply to the study cited and Jargin SV is essentially a mouthpiece for the IAEA who has interdiction orders over WHO publications.

    28. Re:Oh No! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      In the same way that the Federal Reserve is the "foremost expert" on "managing" banks. When the Federal Reserve is run by the banks, for the banks, and staffed almost entirely with bankers.

      The IAEA is run by the nuclear power industry, for the nuclear power industry, and almost entirely staffed by execs from the nuclear power industry.

      You're comparing the IAEA to the Federal Reserve as if that was a good thing?

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    29. Re:Oh No! by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      And yet they listed to what their scientists and experts say. The foremost experts in their field, the ones who write the above reports, and they are presented as verbatim.

      Are you arguing against the presentation or the data?

    30. Re:Oh No! by Uecker · · Score: 1

      My point is that you should acquire a bit of scientific literacy yourself, which includes being able to evaluate the quality of information based on its source. Then we can have a serious discussion. Ofcourse, if all you aim for are the cheers of the uncritical pro-nuclear crowd on slashdot, this is not necessary.

    31. Re:Oh No! by Uecker · · Score: 1

      I know. The problem is that the pro-nuclear slashdotters already think they know what is right and what is wrong before even seriously looking at the scientific literature, just because the "low doses of radiation are harmless", "LNT has been debunked", "there have been only 50 deaths from chernobyl", etc.. myths just fit so well with their prejudices. I believe myself that the radiation risks of nuclear power are quite manageable with good engineering and regulatory oversight, but as a professional scientist I cannot stand when they search for the biggest bullshit on the internet and misrepresent it as the scientific consensus.

    32. Re:Oh No! by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 2

      You make no sense. I presented a source that very clearly supported my point. If were not able to determine that from the source's summary, then it is your 'scientific literacy' that should be in question.

    33. Re:Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are the foremost experts on this type of analysis

      They are the foremost experts on promoting nuclear energy. It's part of their charter for goodness sake.

      Yes, it is, and they are good at it.

      And so are you.

    34. Re:Oh No! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I share your frustration. From my understanding it's called social proof. Once their belief system is challenged by independent peer reviewed works they become even more adamant that their beliefs are right. Mix in some strategic shilling, sock puppets to control the conversation and it is very difficult to have an honest conversation.

      From my experience here, in nuclear conversations, the real discussion is at -1, where the facts end up. I found your comments interesting, so thank you for them.

    35. Re:Oh No! by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      The accident at Fukushima has also indirectly caused some 10,000 to 50,000 deaths from coal pollution because Japan in fear switched from nuclear to burning coal. ~The blame for that of course should go directly to the Japanese anti-nuclear protestors..
      (The total kill from nuclear power is 0.0 to 0.2 million - whereas the total kill from anti-nuclear protest is some 5 to 10 million, again from coal pollution.)

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    36. Re: Oh No! by terjeber · · Score: 1

      Yeah, 'cause your religious delusions are so much more accurate than their science. No, the IAEA is not a pro-nuclear agency. Here's your tin foil hat. Get well soon.

    37. Re:Oh No! by Wizzu · · Score: 1

      My interpretation of promote here is that as long as nuclear technology is used, it's used safely and helping the world become a better place. This is in contrast to using nuclear technology as weapons. But, focusing on just that one word is prone to mis-interpretation so better would be to study their mission a bit more, and more so what they actually do.

      It's worth noting that one of their primary goals is nuclear safety, which is something a large part of their efforts are spent on.

      I couldn't find a single politician in the membership list. There were 156 member states.

    38. Re:Oh No! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      I couldn't find a single politician in the membership list. There were 156 member states.

      Here is a list of the past heads of the IAEA.

      "No politicians"? You didn't really look, did you?

      Here is a list of the Secretaries General of the IAEA, in chronological order:

      1) W. Sterling Cole, former Republican member of the US House of Representatives.
      2) Sigvard Eklund, "Starting in 1950, Eklund was the deputy to the managing director of AB Atomenergi. He was also the director of the reactor development division at AB Atomenergi from 1957 to 1961." Industry insider.
      3) Hans Blix chaired the Swedish Liberal Party's campaign during the 1980 referendum on nuclear power, campaigning in favor of retention of the Swedish nuclear energy program.
      4) Mohamed ElBaradei, former member of the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
      5) Yukiya Amano, former member of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

      I'm not saying the IAEA doesn't do some good work, or doesn't have a place in the discussion, but let's not pretend that they don't have an agenda.

      Why would the IAEA be the only part of the United Nations without an agenda?

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    39. Re:Oh No! by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      You're comparing the IAEA to the Federal Reserve as if that was a good thing?

      Nope. Quite the opposite. Self-regulation in incestuous, revolving-door industries is a joke by definition.

    40. Re:Oh No! by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      And yet they listed to what their scientists and experts say.

      As long as they don't interfere with profit margins, no different than how Enron and Worldcom "listened" to their accountants, and for the same reasons.

  2. Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So fearmongering by the anti-nuclear body has lead to more deaths. Those guys are really doing a great job of increasing carbon emissions, increasing energy prices, increasing deaths due to continued use of coal fired power states, and now increasing deaths thanks to the fear of nuclear power that they've been spreading for years.

    The reaction to Fukushima was totally overblown, and the media made it sound like a global catastrophe when in reality it was a minor incident that was primarily caused by continued use of a reactor that should have been retired. Had it been replaced by a newer reactor, as it should have been, the whole incident would never have happened, but then that's another example of how the anti-nuclear guys are endangering lives by not allowing newer reactors to be built.

    1. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      That is such a strained, intellectually dishonest argument, and I say this as someone who supports safe nuclear power.

      The flooding mitigation and evacuation procedures were inadequate. In case of inadequate procedures during a disaster, people tend to panic, and panic leads to overreaction. it wouldn't matter what the cause was.

      The danger levels are not set by eco warriors, but by regulators. If regulators have been unnecessarily cautious according to recent research, apply that research. Don't assume that updated understanding is being suppressed.

      Part of the problem, however, was a mere lack of information. With the 20/20 hindsight we now have and the information we have now gathered, we can see that - while the lack of power was a fuckup waiting to happen - the sea will take the hit, winds were moving in the right direction, blah blah. When you lack information, you don't consider the best case scenario. Even now, this author has painted the rosiest picture of the evidence, bringing up unrelated examples which also give an "I told you so, with hindsight".

      The building of a new reactor was not delayed by Greenpeace, champ. These things are expensive. There was a rolling re-build taking place.

    2. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Mistakill · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You must realize that the Japanese people a fairly strong memory of the direct and indirect effects of Nuclear events, unique in it's own respect, after Hiroshima and Nagasaki...

      I doubt anyone in Japan would have wanted to be within 1000km of Fukushima and understandably so

    3. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually thats not true. Most Japs were not alive around WW2 and even less were actually near Hiroshima or Nagasaki. If you were there when they were dropped, tehres a good chance your now dead.

    4. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Orgasmatron · · Score: 1

      This is a good read:

      http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~bl...

      It is written about the American experience, but I would expect most of it to apply to Japan too. Not the anecdotes, obviously, but the tactics the watermelons (both protestors and regulators, sadly) use appear to be nearly universal.

      --
      See that "Preview" button?
    5. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Some Clarifications to the 1600 are in order;

      http://www.japantimes.co.jp/ne...

      Around 90 percent of those who died of indirect causes were aged 66 or older, according to Reconstruction Agency statistics published in September.

      Unlike those caused by collapsed buildings or tsunami, indirect deaths are determined by municipal panels by examining links between the disaster and the cause of death. This occurs when a relative of a deceased files a request.

      Causes of indirect deaths include physical and mental stress stemming from long stays at shelters, a lack of initial care as a result of hospitals being disabled by the disaster, and suicides.

      Many of these deaths happened well after the evacuation. So effectively all deaths of the elderly displaced are blamed on Fukushima. It appears there is extra compensation if you can attribute a death to Fukushima.

    6. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      Looked at in this way, the 'hysteria death toll' from Fukushima was far higher still in the US. At the time I had California relatives calling me to see if my state had secret stockpiles of KI pills that they could draw on after their desperate drives from pharmacy to pharmacy had come up empty. I'm wondering how the number of people who actually moved away from the coasts of the three pacific states, with the usual number of deaths in a migration, compared with the evacuations at the plants. Then you have to consider the "extra" deaths from coal emissions going on longer than they otherwise would have.

    7. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 3, Informative

      "The building of a new reactor was not delayed by Greenpeace, champ"

      This is true. The Green movement has none of the power in Japan that it does in the US and Europe, which accounts for a large fraction of Japan's economic strength since the Seventies, when our own building of industry and infrastructure was stifled by Greenpeace and its even more radical ilk. When I lived in Tokyo during this period, there was an annual antinuclear rally that drew perhaps a hundred people, in a city of over 30 million.

      After Fukushima, foreign Greens and their pet journalists swarmed in to fire up a mass movement like the ones in Western countries. Their rallies drew big crowds at first, during the initial "How bad is this going to get?" period, largely by capitalizing in a newfound mistrust of government that flared up after the disaster - in which, remember, the nuclear accident was only a sidebar to the deaths of 16,000 people. As time went on, the initial fears subsided and the antinuclear rallies are back to drawing mostly flies, as before. Today, after a series of extra safety checks, the reactors are being started up again.

      The Fukushima issue in Japan revolves around, "How did our reputation for long-term planning fail so spectacularly in Tohoku ('Northeast', their term for the disaster as a whole). Seacoast towns had ancient markers detailing the exact place where historical tsunamis had reached, ignored in the postwar rush for coastal development. After the grid failure prevented Fukushima from maintaining core coolant circulation after shutdown, the crew went to Plan B, which was to hook up fire trucks to maintain the circulation. But, whoopsie, the plumbing connections didn't match. These are the sort of screwups that turn an inconvenience into a meltdown. But because there is no anti-technology movement in Japan, they will figure out how to do better next time.

    8. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      Your argument seems to be "IF they did things right, the accident wouldn't happen". But the anti-nuclear groups point out that humans historically fuck things up such that relying on the existence of rational behavior is a mistake.

      That being said, ALL energy sources have downsides and risks. Nuclear power risk/harm is not necessarily greater than the alternatives. Thus, "mix it up" seems the more rational approach as no one mistake or side-effect dominates, and they each work better under different conditions. But, energy generation has consequences, period.

    9. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 3, Insightful

      99.99999999% of Americans were completely unaffected by 911. So it must not have made any impact on the nations consciousness or changed any policies, right?

    10. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So it affected about 0.03 Americans?

    11. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      I know a person whose husband died in the due to the building he was in being hit by a plane and then falling down. They were certainly affected, as was the husband himself (though for a shorter time I guess).

      So that's two people, there were 285 million Americans at the time, so that's 70x the number of people you claim were affected. And I'm pretty sure that one man wasn't the only person to have died in those events.

      Do you really have such a terrible understanding of simple multiplication and numbers, not to mention scale.

    12. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 2

      Do you really have such a terrible understanding of simple multiplication and numbers, not to mention scale.

      I understand some people would rather engage in willfully obtuse pedantry to ignore the (obvious) point being made. Buy some pot, buy some prunes, and learn to relax.

    13. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      That being said, ALL energy sources have downsides and risks. Nuclear power risk/harm is not necessarily greater than the alternatives.

      How is it not greater? Dr. Evil could use his Alan Parson's Project to blow up every dam on the planet, and while the loss of live would be tragic, it wouldn't still be effecting the Earth hundreds of years from now. As opposed to a nuclear meltdown, or an earthquake rupturing a waste containment center.

    14. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The Green movement has none of the power in Japan that it does in the US and Europe

      If the Green movement had the power in the U.S. that nuke fans thought it did, all coal and nuclear power in the country would have been replaced with solar panels. In the Carter Administration.

      After Fukushima, foreign Greens and their pet journalists swarmed in to fire up a mass movement like the ones in Western countries.

      Greens didn't tell the Japanese that TEPCO was a habitual, corner cutting liar that put their employees and surrounding region at risk. TEPCO did that through their corruption and hubris.

      But because there is no anti-technology movement in Japan, they will figure out how to do better next time.

      Standard nuke fan storyline: if you oppose nuclear power, you're a luddite! Reality: you can be fascinated by the technology, but realize that nuclear power is the most expensive technology ever invented by man.

      Let's pretend that the IAEA isn't as incestuous with the industry it's supposed to oversee as Treasury is with Goldman Sachs, and that there will never be a nuclear meltdown again, anywhere. Nuclear power is still completely unjustifiable, as no plant rolls the full cost of it's construction, operation, security, maintenance into the rates it charges much less storing the waste for hundreds of years.

      Nuclear power == corporate pork and fluffing Tom Swift fanboys.

    15. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      Other than your apparent lack of understanding of scale, was there a point?

      A majority of Americans were affected. At the very least their television programming was interrupted for minutely updates. The 2% of Americans that lived in NYC had their normal daily routines interrupted. Flights were grounded for a few days, affecting yet more Americans.

    16. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The Green movement has none of the power in Japan that it does in the US and Europe

      If the Green movement had the power in the U.S. that nuke fans thought it did, all coal and nuclear power in the country would have been replaced with solar panels. In the Carter Administration.

      The Green movement, at least in the US, is a reactive movement, not a proactive one. Some of them may promote alternative energy sources, but the rest will protest against wind turbines killing birds and solar panels being environmentally unfriendly to produce.

      The Green movement isn't consistently for anything. They are only consistently against things.

    17. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 2

      Some of them may promote alternative energy sources, but the rest will protest against wind turbines killing birds and solar panels being environmentally unfriendly to produce. The Green movement isn't consistently for anything. They are only consistently against things.

      But that's just more of the if-you-oppose-nuclear-power-you're-a-crazy-hippie-luddite caricaturing I was talking about. You're going to have a hard time finding an environmentalist that wouldn't trade all the damage done by mining coal and uranium, and the byproducts of turning them into electricity, for the (overblown) risk to birds from wind turbines. Maybe you're thinking of some of the nuttier members of the Audubon Society? You know, the minority of which tries to poison feral cats to protect songbirds.

    18. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by terjeber · · Score: 1

      all coal and nuclear power in the country would have been replaced with solar panels. In the Carter Administration

      Yes, and the US would have been a third world country with 50 million people in it, and the discussion about a fence between Mexico and the US would have been a topic in Mexican elections, not US elections.

      realize that nuclear power is the most expensive technology ever invented by man

      ...and also the cleanest and safest way to create the required amount of electricity.

      no plant rolls the full cost of it's construction

      Who does? Does prices of coal-produced electricity include the price of fixing climate gas problems? If it did, could anyone afford it?

      much less storing the waste for hundreds of years

      This is only a problem because religious fruitcakes claim that the scientifically sound plans for waste managment are dangerous.

    19. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by terjeber · · Score: 1

      Which effects? Seriously. I learned in school (back during the nuclear-holocaust nonsense) that nuclear bombs would make the world uninhabitable for millennia and more. Still, a mere weeks after the bombs fell on these two cities living there posed no risk to anyone (except from the fact that significant parts of the infrastructure was gone). Radiation risks after a nuclear bomb are negligible. Unless you were exposed when the bomb exploded.

    20. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      Yes, and the US would have been a third world country with 50 million people in it, and the discussion about a fence between Mexico and the US would have been a topic in Mexican elections, not US elections.

      Red herrings are red.

      and also the cleanest and safest way to create the required amount of electricity.

      Then you must be thinking of wind and solar, not nuclear, as the former wont be causing problem for people living a thousand years from now. The canard about "baseline power" is also addressed with technology that has been around for decades: long distance power lines. It might be heavily overcast and windless in Jerkwater, Kansas, but it's not going to be windless and sunless across the entire region. So you build enough redundancy into your green power grid to compensate - and it's still going to be far cheaper than coal or nuclear, when all costs are counted in.

      This is only a problem because rational people point out that the unicorn plans for waste managment are dangerous.

      FTFY. There is nothing sane about building a facility, anywhere on the planet, and pretending it's going to be find and dandy 900 years from now.

    21. Re:Another Win For the Anti-Nuclear Guys by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      A majority of Americans were affected.

      Not even close.

      At the very least their television programming was interrupted for minutely updates.

      You could say the same for the Caitlyn Jenner transition. Whoop de do.

      The 2% of Americans that lived in NYC had their normal daily routines interrupted.

      And then then went back to work.

      Flights were grounded for a few days, affecting yet more Americans.

      Which was due to the decision to ground airplanes, not due to the attacks on the WTC. A decision that didn't apply to planes or people from Saudi Arabia, where the the attackers actually came from. Curious, that.

  3. Happenned again... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They didn't draw a conclusion from Chernobyl disaster, where the evacuation was also too broad.

  4. Can you believe that?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Japan over reacted. \/[ ._. ]\/

  5. And yet... by Kvathe · · Score: 1

    Imagine the media fallout if those 1,600 people were killed by radiation.

    1. Re:And yet... by gargleblast · · Score: 1

      Imagine the media fallout if those 1,600 people were killed by radiation.

      Imagine a world where sometimes, people just stuck to the facts.

    2. Re:And yet... by codeButcher · · Score: 1

      Imagine the media fallout if those 1,600 people were killed by radiation.

      Imagine a world where sometimes, people just stuck to the facts.

      To be fair, the GP used the magic word "media". In my not so humble cynical experience, while people may be able to stick to facts, that is not something very likely to happen to the media.

      --
      Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
    3. Re:And yet... by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 1

      Imagine the media fallout if *one* of these people were killed by radiation.

  6. Unintended consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of unintended consequences of nuclear power, which seems to leave suffering in its wake for generations when something goes wrong. The bombings in Japan, Chernobyl, TMI, and now Fukushima. The children of the victims' children and the environment will continue to suffer the effects of a power that is just too great for humans to be in control of. Nuclear power has been a disaster and widespread adoption of clean, renewable energy can't come soon enough.

    1. Re:Unintended consequences by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      You'll find that the after-effects of the bombs in Japan were quite limited. Even with dispersal of radioactive material, we find that Japan consistently has lower cancer rates than the rest of the world. So, all this FUD about multi-generational effects has proven to be just that.

    2. Re:Unintended consequences by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      You'll find that the after-effects of the bombs in Japan were quite limited. Even with dispersal of radioactive material, we find that Japan consistently has lower cancer rates than the rest of the world.

      Beneficial Biological Effects of Miso with Reference to Radiation Injury, Cancer and Hypertension

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:Unintended consequences by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      I've read those articles about the beneficial effects of low exposures, it is interesting stuff. There seems to be some evidence, but just as in the attempts to show negative effects of exposures, there is not enough statistical evidence to have any certainty. The one thing that we can conclude is that in either case the effects are so small it is very hard to statistically observe them.

    4. Re:Unintended consequences by rasmusbr · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Nuclear power has been a disaster and widespread adoption of clean, renewable energy can't come soon enough.

      Bullshit.

      There have been multiple individual coal mining accidents that have killed more people than the entire nuclear industry has ever killed. Millions of people are estimated to die prematurely every year from pollution-caused heart and lung disease, and coal is one of the main culprits.

      Every decision ever made to invest in nuclear instead of coal has been a life saving decision. The same could be said of investment in wind an solar in places where they can partially replace coal, but wind and solar will need to be paired with energy storage or long-range low-loss power distribution. Until we have either a cheap scalable energy storage technology or superconducting power distribution wind and solar will never replace coal.

      And don't get me started on hydroelectrical dams. Dam breaches have killed more people than we could ever hope to kill with flawed nuclear reactor designs if we tried on purpose.

    5. Re:Unintended consequences by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      And don't get me started on hydroelectrical dams. Dam breaches have killed more people than we could ever hope to kill with flawed nuclear reactor designs if we tried on purpose.

      You don't do dam breaches justice. They have caused the single biggest deathtoll for any industrial disaster to date.

      And if you're going to run the Chinese government's line of "natural disaster" then I've got a hydroelectric dam to sell you.

    6. Re:Unintended consequences by Uberbah · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Nuclear power has been a disaster and widespread adoption of clean, renewable energy can't come soon enough.

      There have been multiple individual coal mining accidents that have killed more people than the entire nuclear industry has ever killed.

      As you say, bullshit. Why is it that nuke fans push the false dichotomy of coal, even when replying to a post talking about clean, renewable energy?

      And don't get me started on hydroelectrical dams. Dam breaches have killed more people than we could ever hope to kill with flawed nuclear reactor designs if we tried on purpose.

      My favorite is when nuke fans include dam collapses from decades before the first nuclear power plant was ever built. Nevermind that if we had nuclear power in 1900, we would have had some more Chernobyl's and Fukishimas.

      Every decision ever made to invest in nuclear instead of coal has been a life saving decision.

      Fukishima was a once-in-a-thousand years disaster. If you replace thousands of coal plants around the word with nuclear power plants, you're going to see a lot more Fukishima's because more plants will be hit by once-in-a-thousand-years disasters just based on statistics.

      but wind and solar will need to be paired with energy storage or long-range low-loss power distribution

      Which can be done for a fraction of the cost of nuclear power, which costs billions to develop and maintain, and then store the waste for hundreds to thousands of years.

    7. Re:Unintended consequences by caseih · · Score: 1

      The waste issue is as much a political thing as a technological thing. Storing radioactive waste for thousands of years is really silly to begin with. If the waste is still radioactive, then there's still energy that can be extracted. If waste could be reprocessed and reacted again until it had a half life of say a hundred years, then waste would simply not be an issue that it is today. And the main reason we aren't reprocessing waste is political, with fears of plutonium bomb production.

    8. Re:Unintended consequences by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      For comparison, here is a chart of deaths per kwh of electricity generated.

      Coal – U.S. 15,000
      Hydro 1,400
      Solar (rooftop) 440
      Nuclear – global average 90

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    9. Re:Unintended consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not a false dichotomy. There continue to exist coal plants right now, and have for decades in the past, and will be for some time to come. Because renewables haven't replaced them. Therefore we have gone and chosen coal over nuclear for decades. It's a *real* dichotomy. Making the discussion nuclear vs. renewables is the false dichotomy.

      Think of Ahmdahl's law. You should focus your efforts on fixing the big problem, then reassess the situation afterward. Even if I agreed that it's important to transition off of nuclear, it's just not even in the same league as fossils, so we should replace fossils first. Perhaps that will happen naturally as battery and grid transmission losses decrease.

      My favorite is when nuke fans include dam collapses from decades before the first nuclear power plant was ever built. Nevermind that if we had nuclear power in 1900, we would have had some more Chernobyl's and Fukishimas.

      You don't have to. You can take it per capita, and start it with dams built starting at the same time as nuclear power plants, and get the same results. Hydroelectric dams are much better than coal, but hardly optimal in terms of lethality or ecology. Even aside from human lives, they can be environmental disasters all on their own. However, once built, the damage is pretty much done, so we might as well take advantage of them.

      If you replace thousands of coal plants around the word with nuclear power plants, you're going to see a lot more Fukishima's because more plants will be hit by once-in-a-thousand-years disasters just based on statistics.

      Yes, you will, and the statistics bear out that this is a better result than continuing to see all the casualties from coal.

      Which can be done for a fraction of the cost of nuclear power

      Then do it. I'm certainly not stopping you. If you can wipe out nuclear in the free market, then you can just do so and we don't even really have to discuss it. It's not like nuclear power has entrenched backing that's going to sabotage your batteries or whatever.

      I have a prediction. If you run the numbers, attempting to be perfectly honest in terms of cost and using only reasonable assumptions about future advancements, but excluding fossil fuels as having unacceptable externalities, then I predict your results will include some renewables and some nuclear. Go ahead and prove it wrong. Not going to stop you.

      Some stats I found here: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/a... show that land-based wind is fairly favourable *when the wind is blowing*, the others don't do so great (certainly not "a fraction of the cost" even when the wind is blowing), except geothermal which is a clear winner in those few cases where it is available. Hydro is in the same ballpark. Other sources: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ja..., http://www.renewable-energysou..., http://nucleargreen.blogspot.c.... Note some of those sources point out, correctly, that fossils are basically the cheapest. That's why we still have them (if they weren't fairly cheap, the problem would basically solve itself). Of course, fossils don't capture all downstream externalities in the way that nuclear and non-hydro renewables tend to.

    10. Re:Unintended consequences by rasmusbr · · Score: 1

      I do think that nuclear is dead, because it takes government money to build it and because you don't win elections by subsidizing something that most people are scared of. Yes, nuclear is significantly more expensive than coal and slightly more expensive than gas and it takes 10-15 years to get a new nuclear plant online, which is longer than for any other power source. No sane capitalist would let any of his money anywhere near that investment unless the government promised to provide lots of subsidies.

      With that said, the storage problem for solar and wind is absolutely not solved, nor will it be cheap. The amount of installed wind and solar is still so small that existing hydro dams can handle the storage, but wind and solar are growing fast enough that hydro dams will be completely insufficient.

      There are experimental ideas about using excess power to make hydrogen, or methane or other hydrocarbons, but those are highly experimental and it is doubtful whether it will ever make economic sense. There are some very promising developments in turning sunlight directly into hydrogen or hydrocarbons, which will probably make a lot more sense economically. The problem is that none of this is available off the shelf, nor will it be in the next 5-10 years, and when it finally does become available it will take several decades to ramp up production to a level needed to supply 10+ billion people with energy storage.

      Energy distribution has been making slow but steady progress over the last 150 or so years. We can easily transmit power 1000-2000 km today. Some day we'll be able to transmit it 3000 km and in the distant future 4000 km and 5000 km, which will be enough that we'll barely need storage. But again we're talking about decades into the future.

      The nice ting about nuclear power is that we can build it now. You can call GE and order a plant on Monday, assuming you have the $5 billion (or $10 billion after the usual cost overrun) that they want for one of those and in 10-15 years you, your kids, grandkids and great-grandkids will have a clean and safe power plant. Throw in a few hundred millions for a decent sea wall if you decide put it next to the ocean.

      If you are concerned about what future generations will do with your nuclear waste storage sites, you should probably be more concerned about what they will do (or rather what they will fail to do) with your hydro dams. I wouldn't trust a government that fails to repair bridges before they collaps to maintain a hydro dam upstream from where I live.

    11. Re:Unintended consequences by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Burning the people would be more efficient. Check your numbers/units.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    12. Re:Unintended consequences by rasmusbr · · Score: 1

      Interesting, but those numbers are deaths per PWh, not per kWh. That means that a 500MW US coal burner and its associated mining kills 0,0075 people per hour, or roughly one person per week.

      Imagine the outrage if your average 1000MW nuclear reactor and its associated uranium mining killed two people per week! The president and congress would race to be the first to propose an outright ban on nuclear power.

    13. Re:Unintended consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well lets be specific: only a single damn failure in China took more 170000 people in an instant; not maybe... no statistical mumbojumbo; they were gone for sure the moment that dam burst.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam

    14. Re:Unintended consequences by dcollins117 · · Score: 1

      Fukishima was a once-in-a-thousand years disaster.

      And yet the time from when the Fukushima plant was commissioned to the tsunami that caused significant damage to the plant was 40 years. What bad fortune!

      We (humans, presumably) are terrible at making predictions. The book The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb investigates this idea in detail. Incidentally, he made a pantload of money on Wall Street by betting against the conventional narrative that economists are good at quantifying risk.

      Incidentally, you may have noticed extreme weather events are becoming more common across the globe. Some of you know the reason for that (the others are Republicans.) Yet we inevitably make predications based on past events.

    15. Re:Unintended consequences by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      All of those numbers seem extremely high. I routinely use about 300kwh/month.

    16. Re:Unintended consequences by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Yeah, it should be PWh, not kWh. My mistake

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    17. Re:Unintended consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, Slashdot doesn't let him edit his post so I guess you have to find another way to correct those numbers.

    18. Re:Unintended consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Shit, wind farms haved killed several hundred people a year in the UK alone.

    19. Re:Unintended consequences by will_die · · Score: 1

      And reality has proven that that worse weather is not the case http://www.climatechangedispat...
      So the real two groups of people are Republicans and those who are ignoring proven science.

    20. Re:Unintended consequences by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      With that said, the storage problem for solar and wind is absolutely not solved, nor will it be cheap.

      It's been solvable with technology from the 70's - or even the 1870's - and still be cheaper than either coal or nuclear, if all of the latter's costs are counted rather than externalized. You even mentioned part of the solution:

      We can easily transmit power 1000-2000 km today. Some day we'll be able to transmit it 3000 km and in the distant future 4000 km and 5000 km, which will be enough that we'll barely need storage.

      It might be overcast and windless in Jerkwater, Kansas, but that's not going to be the case all over a 2000 km radius. It's going to be sunny or windy somewhere. As for storing the energy, get some molten salt batteries - or just build more water towers into your grid and use excess energy to pump up water. If you need power, just let it out into a tank or retaining pond and use gravity to generate electricity. It's going to have some up-front costs, but it's still going to be cheaper than coal or nuclear, and the infrastructure should last a long time - we have hydro plants that are over 100 years old that are still producing electricity. For the rare areas where neither wind or solar would never work - build a plant that burns ethanol (cane or switch grass based, not that corn corporate pork) or wood, and you'd still be carbon-neutral.

      The nice ting about nuclear power is that we can build it now. You can call GE and order a plant on Monday, assuming you have the $5 billion (or $10 billion after the usual cost overrun) that they want for one of those and in 10-15 years you, your kids, grandkids and great-grandkids will have a clean and safe power plant.

      You can build a lot of green energy for $5 billion (more when you include all the costs, not just the up-front government subsidies) over 10-15 years. Take the $1 trillion plus imperial budget - most of which is focused around guarding the world's gas station, the middle east - and spend it on green energy, and not only could you have us carbon-free within a decade. You'd have an economic boom that would make the post-WWII era look like a recession, from the number of jobs created.

      If you are concerned about what future generations will do with your nuclear waste storage sites, you should probably be more concerned about what they will do (or rather what they will fail to do) with your hydro dams.

      Every hydro dam in the world could collapse tomorrow, and the loss of life would be huge. But rebuilding could start as soon as the floodwaters receded, and it would be a historical footnote hundreds of years from now - as opposed to the nuclear waste facilities that will still need to be maintained in 2515, A.D.

  7. Emergency simulation tool needed by vikingpower · · Score: 0

    An ex-colleague of mine, a scientist, is the technical lead in a now nearly-ended EU-financed R & D project, named CRISMA: http://www.crismaproject.eu/. They delivered and tested a series of tools that show actors such as fire-brigade commanders, higher-ranking police officials etc. etc. what the consequences of their actions are in case of an emergency. For example: a city has 30 ambulances. Sending 20 of them to the first place with heavy reported casualties after an earthquake leaves 10 to deal with anything else. Now repeat the simulation while sending over only 15, or 10 ambulances. Learn about what good and bad scenarios are. Such stuff would have been great if it had been at the disposal of Japanese emergency coordinators before Fukushima...

    --
    Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
    1. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even Comic Sans has its place. By not realizing this you are doomed to make the same mistake as those who uses it unwittingly.

      You make my eyes bleed.

    2. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What's with the hipster 'look at me I can change to a hard to read font'?

    3. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by drinkypoo · · Score: 1, Insightful

      An ex-colleague of mine,

      You were fired for your poor communication skills? Drop the monospace text, snowflake. Nobody wants to respond to your comment even if the content is correct, because up yours too. And up yours is what you're saying when you set monospace text, which is harder to read. HTH, HAND! dbag.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    4. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by vikingpower · · Score: 1

      "Nobody wants to respond to your comment"

      Funny, then, that you respond. Like the crook in "Fargo" who, fed up with his fellow crook, is blabbering all the time about being silent.

      --
      Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
    5. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by lgw · · Score: 2

      No one is responding to the content of your post. That's the lesson here.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    6. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who cares what font he used? It's different but readable. Or does everyone have to conform?

    7. Re:Emergency simulation tool needed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Japanese government already had such software to determine where the fallout would go and how to evacuate - they ignored it.

  8. And yet by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The government's perception of radiation exposure risk, rather than the actual risk itself, may have caused far more harm than it prevented.

    And yet, Tepco downplayed and lied about the actual risk, and the amount of radioactive material released, literally at every turn. That is, literally everything Tepco said about it was a lie, and it was actually more and higher than they said literally every time. Perhaps the public loses confidence in official reports when they are all lies?

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    1. Re:And yet by cbeaudry · · Score: 3

      And yet, the report says, and I quote:

      "No one has been killed or sickened by the radiation — a point confirmed last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Even among Fukushima workers, the number of additional cancer cases in coming years is expected to be so low as to be undetectable, a blip impossible to discern against the statistical background noise."

      Seems to me Fukushima was a government failure in emergency management more than anything else.

    2. Re:And yet by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Even if TEPCO had been more honest, the reality is that no one knew how bad it was going to be. They lost the ability to monitor the reactors and had to assume the worst. It could easily have resulted in far more material being ejected into the atmosphere and surrounding area. Evacuation was the only option.

      The evacuation was an inevitable consequence of the accident. The accident killed 1600 people so far.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    3. Re:And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And yet, the report says, and I quote:

      "No one has been killed or sickened by the radiation — a point confirmed last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Even among Fukushima workers, the number of additional cancer cases in coming years is expected to be so low as to be undetectable, a blip impossible to discern against the statistical background noise."

      Seems to me Fukushima was a government failure in emergency management more than anything else.

      Yeah, but that is easy to say in hindsight and/or from a distance. Especially in a country that have close experience with real nuclear horror at immense scale, erring on the side of caution during a nuclear accident with uncertain information isn't hard to understand.

    4. Re: And yet by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      wait, so the stories about the men who went inside to stop the reactor, facing certain death, were complete fabricated?

      The media just took Wrath of Khan and substituted the nouns?

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    5. Re:And yet by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      So, if you use that in the future, please be sure to clarify that they were indirect effects of the evacuation, and not from radio logical health effects. I imagine you'll conveniently leave out those details. We'll see.

    6. Re:And yet by trenien · · Score: 2
      Because, of course, both the IAEA and George Johnson are completely unbiased when it comes to nuclear power...

      I honestly don't know about Johnson, but I've often seen guys of his age involved in science such as him to be quite pro-nuclear: quite enough for most to not be particularly thorough when it comes to researching positive outlooks. That brings me to the IAEA which is the source cited and has been criticised a lot for its very positive stance about nuclear power.

      Last of all, when talking about Fukushima workers, let's not dig too deep, it could lead to taking a look at the sub-sub-contracting (often through the yakuza) of people and the way their eventual issues may get handled afterward :

      http://www.rt.com/news/fukushi...

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/wi...

      http://www.reuters.com/article...

      Those are a few among all the various scandals surrounding the Fukushima disaster (still ongoing, by the way). But please, do keep downplaying what the risks are in using nuclear power. In any case, most of the vocal crowd on ./ will cheer on.

    7. Re: And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You might be confusing Fukushima with Chernobyl. During the Chernobyl incident a few workers took a dive through heavily irradiated water below the reactor to close a hatch. I remember reports of worker deaths from Fukushima, but they were not caused by radiation. I remember two workers drowning in a channel that got flooded somehow and a crane operator that got killed. But my memory is fuzzy on that.

    8. Re:And yet by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      How else could they have coped with it? The situation was uncertain, an evacuation was required. The deaths mostly came because once displaced the refugees lacked adequate housing, communities, jobs and medical support.

      The only way to mitigate that would be to build a spare city for people living near nuclear plants to move in to, and then pump vast amounts of cash in to jump start its economy and replace all the stuff people lost. Even then, you can't replace heirlooms, personal items and pets. The things that caused distress at being lost, and lead to premature deaths.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    9. Re:And yet by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      It's easy to see how the Japanese could over react.

    10. Re: And yet by gargleblast · · Score: 1

      wait, so the stories about the men who went inside to stop the reactor, facing certain death, were complete fabricated?

      Yes, Achievement Unlocked! You can now get your daily news from Comedy Central instead of Slashdot.

    11. Re: And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There were three of them: Alexei Ananenko, Valeriy Bezpalov and Boris Baranov.

      Real life superheroes that with their sacrifice literally saved millions of people from around the world.

    12. Re:And yet by Uecker · · Score: 1

      Because, of course, both the IAEA and George Johnson are completely unbiased when it comes to nuclear power...

      I honestly don't know about Johnson, but I've often seen guys of his age involved in science such as him to be quite pro-nuclear: quite enough for most to not be particularly thorough when it comes to researching positive outlooks.

      I also see that it is very easy to get confused about what the scientific community actually believes about something. Especially if you are not a scientist and already have a bias. The reason is that science is very open and even fringe opinions are tolerated. So if you are looking for a confirmation for a something you believe in you can always find some study in an obscure journal which seems to confirm your idea. For science, this is not a problem because scientists are usually able to judge by themselves whether something is a reliable source of information. But It is a problem for pubic policy. Especially if there are special interest groups who fund those fringe-science communities. For example, this is clearly the case for all these people promoting the questionable idea of hormesis who get (or got) funding from all kinds of industries who want to downplay the risk of pollution (tobacco industry, industries causing air pollution, nuclear industry). Quite a few people and articles mentioned in the article are from this camp. Unfortunately, some pro-nuclear slashdotters fall for this nonsense far too easily. And don't get me wrong: Being pro-nuclear is not an unreasonable position, but believing this pseudo-scientific crap (hormesis, LNT is debunked, etc.) is.

    13. Re:And yet by PPH · · Score: 0

      Tepco downplayed and lied about the actual risk

      And how many lives did that save by reducing stress on the population? IMO, Tepco should be lauded as heros, get lots of medals and awards for not scaring thousands of people to death.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    14. Re: And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Real life superheroes that with their sacrifice literally saved millions of people from around the world.

      Hyperbole. Their sacrifice only saved people in the immediate area.
      More likely is that their sacrificed made it possible to still live in Chernobyl and reduced the amount of people that had to be relocated.
      Remember that a lot of the damage from nuclear disasters is in the line of "If you stay in this area for over a year you are more likely to develop cancer."
      Where evacuation is necessary it is seldom necessary to do so hastily.

    15. Re:And yet by Solandri · · Score: 2

      The evacuation was an inevitable consequence of the accident. The accident killed 1600 people so far.

      TFA is actually pretty well written and avoids playing the blame game like you are. It simply points out that inadequate consideration was given to the consequences of an evacuation. That is, the evacuation was done because it was assumed there was a high risk to not evacuating, but nearly zero risk to evacuating. That turned out not to be the case. And that in the future, evacuations shouldn't be assumed to have zero or near-zero risk.

      In other words, many of the 1600 deaths were due to the assumption you are making that the evacuation was "inevitable." Poor risk assessment like that is what killed those people, not the accident. A proper risk assessment would've resulted in the most mobile people being evacuated first, since their risk from an evacuation was in fact near-zero. Followed by evacuating more at-risk people as the level of risk of the external threat crystallizes. Remember, Fukushima didn't go kablewie immediately after the tsunami hit. It unfolded over several days. The evacuation was carried out based entirely on proximity to the plant, not other factors. Consequently patients in the ICU were removed from hospitals and put into school gymnasiums. TFA is merely pointing out that those patients would've better been served staying in the hospital even a few days longer until transport to another hospital could be arranged. Instead there was a panicked rush to get everyone away ASAP with no attempt at risk assessment.

    16. Re:And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everybody seem to conveniently forget that there was a tsunami at the same time that killed 19000 people and displaced 340000.
      It was a disaster zone and within that disaster zone they had another disaster to deal; there was probably sharp lack of basic resources and transportation at that time. They evacuated 170000 people from around Fukushima anticipating core meltdown; and is tragic that 1600 died because of the evacuation, but could we just also admit that there was also a tsunami there.

      I am pretty sure that if it was only Fukushima it would have been easily handled; and would have went down in the history as minor nuclear incident with 0 causalities attributable to it in any way.

    17. Re:And yet by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Tepco downplayed and lied about the actual risk

      And how many lives did that save by reducing stress on the population?

      It will have increased stress on the population, because they were always waiting for the news to get worse. They revised their estimate of radiation release about eight times.

      IMO, Tepco should be lauded as heros

      Your opinion is that global ecological criminals should be lauded as heroes? Your opinion is quite worthless.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    18. Re:And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not enough mod point for how insightful this comment is.

    19. Re: And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks - we need to know about people like these. These are the people that save us from the nuclear industry and their incompetence.

    20. Re:And yet by terjeber · · Score: 1

      I love articles like this. They are sooo funny. Take a look at the illustration picture. You saw the same type of imagery with another "investigative report". Here the TV crew got dressed up like that and took a TEPCO representative with them who declined the "protective gear". They claimed he did so only to safe the face of TEPCO 'cause, you know, everybody knows we can't enter Fukushima with this type of protective gear.

      Except, this is for protection against dust, not radiation. Same as is used in a slaughter house or in a factory producing micro chips.

      Journalists are clueless morons who'll do anything for a click.

    21. Re:And yet by terjeber · · Score: 1

      The prudent, conservative, thing to do was to recommend people with pre-puberty children and pregnant women move out of the area. The rest should have stayed put.

    22. Re:And yet by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Thousands have died from Chernobyl, and many tens of thousands more had serious health consequences. Given that things seemed to be bad and that there was no way to know how bad or if the problem could be contained an evacuation was the only reasonable course of action.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    23. Re:And yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's easy to accuse someone of leaving out facts that you would ignore anyway. Just like a paid nuclear industry troll.

    24. Re:And yet by terjeber · · Score: 1

      Thousands have died from Chernobyl

      This is pure fantasy with no basis in reality. We simply have no idea how many deaths Chernobyl may or may not have caused. The number is unknowable but probably somewhere between 0 and 4000. We also do not know how many people suffered health consequences.

  9. Reminds me of the Buffalo Springfield by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And four dead in Ohio. 1600 div by 4 make is 400 times to the negative.

  10. Humans Can't be Trusted with Nuclear Power by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    In *every* nuclear disaster, the *first* reaction of the people in charge is to lie:

    1 - Chernobyl. Lies.
    2 - Three Mile Island. More lies.
    3 - Fukushima. More lies.

    And before someone says this is an issue with private companies running nuclear facilities, remember that the initial Chernobyl denial and coverups happened under the control of a communist government, so it swings both ways.

    1. Re:Humans Can't be Trusted with Nuclear Power by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And before someone says this is an issue with private companies running nuclear facilities, remember that the initial Chernobyl denial and coverups happened under the control of a communist government, so it swings both ways.

      That argument only works if you think that you only can swing two different ways.
      One thing you haven't argued against is non-communist governments, there are plenty of nuclear facilities run by those and no failures so far.
      You can claim that it is only a matter of time, but that holds as much water as someone claiming that it isn't a matter of time.
      Regardless the death toll for installing solar and maintaining wind power is still higher than those from nuclear with the accidents included. The deaths from hydroelectric outnumbers those from nuclear, even if you just count the "tiny" dam break that occurred during the Fukushima incident. The deaths from coal power is not insignificant.

      So even if I agree with you and say that the Chernobyl incident and the Fukushima one is something that we have to accept as normal when we use nuclear power then it is still a pretty good choice from a pragmatic standpoint.
      Even better would be if we took occasional meltdowns into consideration and placed nuclear power with densely inhabited areas and typical wind patterns into consideration to minimize the need for large scale evacuations if accidents happen.
      Ideally the same should of course be done for hydroelectric but people tend to really want to live downstream for some reason.

    2. Re:Humans Can't be Trusted with Nuclear Power by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And so you have a convenient excuse to ignore the facts and stick with your anti-nuclear position. Because we all know that nobody in the renewables industry will ever lie.

      BTW, specifically what lies are you referring to? Do you even know?

    3. Re:Humans Can't be Trusted with Nuclear Power by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      For non-nuclear disasters too:
      - After the WTC collapse, they initially said the smoke wasn't toxic.
      - After the Tianjin port explosion, they initially said that the neighborhood was safe.

      When authorities don't know but should know, they prefer to make up something. It's human nature I guess. People prefer to be wrong maybe later than to look incompetent for sure right now.

  11. The Other Victims. by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You'll find that there were many deaths also associated with the indirect effect of the tsunami and earthquake across Japan. A high number of suicides,stress on the elderly were part of it. And the depression of many who lost loved ones or lost their homes and all their belongings.

    The devastation from the earthquake and tsunami was massive, but all those victims get ignored because of the focus on Fukushima. 60 minutes did a Fukushima documentary, and didn't even find 30 seconds to acknowledged those countless tragedies.

    1. Re:The Other Victims. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You'll find that there were many deaths also associated with the indirect effect of the tsunami and earthquake across Japan. A high number of suicides,stress on the elderly were part of it. And the depression of many who lost loved ones or lost their homes and all their belongings.

      None of which would have happened if there *hadn't* been a nuclear accident.

      The devastation from the earthquake and tsunami was massive, but all those victims get ignored because of the focus on Fukushima. 60 minutes did a Fukushima documentary, and didn't even find 30 seconds to acknowledged those countless tragedies.

      Who you callously exploit to make a point. How shameful.

  12. What about the tsunami? by GuB-42 · · Score: 3, Informative

    It looks like the nuclear accident steals the show but one must not forget that the earthquake and tsunami themselves that killed at least 15000 people and rendered many others homeless. So I am not sure how they got to 1600 deaths but how did they differentiate cases that were caused by the radiation-related evacuation and cases where the direct effect of the earthquake and tsunami was the cause.

    1. Re:What about the tsunami? by drinkypoo · · Score: 0

      What about the tsunami? (Score:2)

      What about you don't start comments in the subject line, kid?

      It looks like the nuclear accident steals the show

      This is Slashdot. You think we'd rather talk about waves than nukes? You're off your nut, son.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:What about the tsunami? by Crowd+Computing · · Score: 1

      This is Slashdot. You think we'd rather talk about waves than nukes? You're off your nut, son.

      It's basic physics that energy travels in waves. May the Force be with you.

    3. Re:What about the tsunami? by Idou · · Score: 1

      Sorry, I know this is Slashdot, but please. . . how do the tsunami deaths mitigate the meltdown's damage? Yes, the tsunami itself was one of the worst disasters in Japan's modern history. Ergo, it was the WORST time to have a meltdown. Simultaneous disasters have multiplier affects off of each other, which makes everything WORSE. The meltdown diverted resources that could have gone to helping more people impacted by the tsunami. Straightforward things like gathering the dead and cleaning up the wreckage afterwards were made way more difficult thanks to contamination. Disaster countermeasure planning was made way more complicated and ineffective thanks to the timing of the meltdown.

      Your logic is like, "he was already on the ground when I kicked him in the stomach, therefore, it was not that bad, right?" The fact that meltdown's are likely to happen at the WORST time possible is not something you should be focusing on if the point you are trying to make is, "it was not THAT bad."

      --
      Sdelat' Ameriku velikoy Snova!
  13. Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by trout007 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Evertime there is a Hurricane Evacuation you get a couple dozen that die from car accidents or falling off ladders boarding up their houses to prevent looting, etc. That is one of the reasons politicians are wary of calling evacuations unless really needed.

    --
    I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    1. Re:Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, now that you downgraded your little neighbor from terrorist sponsors to merely enemies, you should try to learn a thing of two about disaster preparedness from them:

      http://www.ijhsdm.org/article.asp?issn=2347-9019;year=2015;volume=3;issue=2;spage=54;epage=60;aulast=Isayama

    2. Re:Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Evertime there is a Hurricane Evacuation you get a couple dozen that die from car accidents or falling off ladders boarding up their houses to prevent looting, etc. That is one of the reasons politicians are wary of calling evacuations unless really needed.

      And yet politicians also seem lined up to cheer for security "theatre" at airports, when it can result in similar indirect deaths and injuries.

      What am I talking about? Despite the common fear of flying and airplane accidents, car accidents are MUCH, MUCH more common to result in death or serious injury. Some studies have indicated that people choosing to travel by car rather than plane in the months after 9/11 may have resulted in the deaths of over a thousand more people.

      I know a number of people who fly less frequently now partly because of how annoying it is to deal with unnecessary airport security. I have made that choice myself a few times, particularly for shorter road trips (say, less than 5-6 hours) where I'd be tempted to take a shuttle and fly before. Now it's just not worth the extra hassle and time -- I usually allow a lot more time than I used to pre-9/11 when showing up to the airport, in case the security lines are long or some idiot shuts them down with a water bottle or doesn't take his shoes off. And I have to be much more careful about what I pack or carry on with me -- in my car, I can bring whatever I want.

      Anyhow, there are many estimates that road traffic increased by a few percent (particularly around holidays) due to people avoiding airports and TSA hassles. Driving is significantly less safe than flying. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the TSA has indirectly caused the deaths of hundreds or even thousands of people due to these kinds of decisions.

      Anyhow -- going back to hurricanes, there are plenty of other reasons why politicians may be hesitant to call for evacuation. It does lead to panic. But it also generally increases spending on emergency services (something that requires more tax dollars, something politicians don't want to have to raise), while simultaneously moving people out of their jurisdictions, where they don't patronize local businesses for days (and, as you point out, looting can make things even worse), even with a "false alarm." People lose income as well if they evacuate for something that turns out to be a "false alarm," which also can be a hit for the local economy. Thus, the local economy takes a hit, the government budget takes a hit in providing extra services... all economic problems that politicians want to avoid unless absolutely necessary. I'm not saying they don't take unintended deaths into account, but that's probably not their primary concern.

    3. Re:Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by Miamicanes · · Score: 1

      The ultimate nightmare scenario for the National Weather Service: a confirmed rain-wrapped EF0 tornado that touches down in Miami or Fort Lauderdale at 4pm & is clearly heading towards I-95. If they say nothing, the tornado is unlikely to kill anyone, because everyone will be driving slowly due to the torrential rain anyway. On the other hand, if they send out a warning that a tornado is about to cross I-95, some idiot is almost **guaranteed** to abandon his car, attempt to cross 4-6 lanes of traffic, and get run over (because it's still bumper-to-bumper 30-40mph traffic, but near-zero visibility). And probably trigger a 7-car pile-up in the process.

    4. Re:Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by trout007 · · Score: 1

      Sorry but I barely trust US statistics I certainly don't trust one from Communist Dictatorships. Did you know North Korea has the happiest people on earth? The dear leader said so himself!

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    5. Re:Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      Politicians don't care about a few people dying in random accidents.

      They care about lots of voters being grumpy because they were told to leave and were inconvenienced by it and then it turned out there was no actual need to leave since the Hurricane wasn't as bad as predicted for their location. And that it makes them look silly to some voters.

    6. Re:Same issue with Hurricane Evacuations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When comparing travel deaths, it depends on if you are measuring deaths per mile (cars unsafe) or per hour (airplanes unsafe).

  14. That Statistic Is Straight Outa Someone's Ass by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is something that cannot be measured. It is a statistic that is based on estimates, read wild ass guesses, based on assumptions that are usually outlandish. They died of hearth failure. You can't prove, or even reasonably infer, that their heart failure was from the Fukushima stress.

    This is no different that new agencies inflating hurricane deaths by counting heart attack victims.

    This statistic is straight outa someone's ass.

  15. There's never any comeback by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Something similar happened in 2005 when Barry Meier at the NYT made a big production about a young guy who died when his implanted defibrillator glitched - while he was competing in a mountain bike race.
    Thousands of elderly patients had unnecessary surgery to replace their implants; hundreds died.
    Yes, the manufacturer kept quiet about the glitch, but that was the only responsible thing to do.

  16. Pure Propaganda by lazy+genes · · Score: 0

    Let's look at reality for a second. Humans need massive amounts of energy in order to expand. Humans will steal this energy from others. Humans will waste energy so others can't use it. Humans are still in the early stages of evolution. Nuclear power is a way to produce massive amounts of energy then make the future generations clean up the mess. We may not be an intelligent species... Until we solve the problem of storing nuclear waste, we are only stealing energy from the next generations to pump up our fake egos...

  17. Re:Another Misattribution by Bite+The+Pillow · · Score: 1

    There is an entire superset of psychology dedicated to understanding these choices. If it were as simple as one side winning the propaganda war, it would be a course in marketing.

    This is complex stuff. Start here

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...

  18. Panic over AGW by PPH · · Score: 0

    How many millions will the environmentalists kill?

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  19. Oh Give Me a Break. by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

    It was an emergency, they had no idea how it would turn out as they were evacuating the area. And it is not just the patients. Sure, for many patients the risk of moving them will always outweigh the risk of anything else. But still the healthy and mobile doctors and nurses are still going to want to evacuate instead of putting their lives n danger. And these patients will definitely die without medical supervision, so the choice is between leaving them to die or taking the risk and taking them with you.

    --
    Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
  20. Over 9000! by Uberbah · · Score: 1

    What about you don't start comments in the subject line, kid?

    The level of wankery in that comment just blew up the meter.

  21. Wh by thegarbz · · Score: 1

    What about you don't start comments in the subject line, kid?

    y?

  22. I hate to sound callous... by rbrander · · Score: 2

    ...but the coal industry in the States kills about 24,000 people per year - and that's just the respiratory stuff, it doesn't even attempt to find out what all the mercury that winds up in the fish is doing to people.

    So sorry if it sounds callous to say, "actually, it doesn't matter whether you're arguing over zero deaths, one, ten or a hundred"...but as long as every single article about nuclear issues doesn't start and end with that 24,000 deaths per year (hundreds of thousands worldwide, though China is the really staggering toll), then all of those articles are callous.

    Honestly, if 65 people per day were dying of a disease, would it be callous to say "look, the cure only kills about a hundred people in a whole year, fuck those people, deploy the cure". Maybe it would, but with a good:bad ratio of 240:1, it's the kind of callousness we all sign off on when it comes to anything else.

    It's actually funny (black humour) to read those super-long posts attempting to prove this or that about the ultimate death toll...but the numbers don't even rise to the 1600 at issue for the evacuation, much less the respiratory deaths from fossil alternatives, much less the whole atmospheric chemistry issue. It's like the bar being set for nuclear is that it must be perfect..."way, way better" is not good enough...

  23. government, not radiation is the danger by paul+mafinga · · Score: 1

    Founders were right again. Expansive nanny state constructs, such as our own democrat party's new york / Los Angeles propaganda streams, can be every bit as deadly as a handgun. Monsters!

  24. Re:Leftism is inherently hypocritical. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm guessing you're not going to vote for Bernie Sanders.

  25. Actually a subset of a larger Phenomenon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fear of nuclear power, generally, has been used to drive reliance on other energy sources that proven historically to be far more deadly. We feat the potential deaths from a Fukishima or Chernobyl or 3-Mile Island, so we have used coal, oil, and natural gas etc each of which claim the actual lives of people who produce it, handle it, use it, and are exposed to its byproducts.

    About 200 workers killed in the nuclear industry, globally, in its entire lifetime, even including Chernobyl and Russian nuclear sub emergencies. There are estimates that thousands of civilians may have their lives shortened by Chernobyl and Fukishima. These related civilian deaths are linked to specific one-time events and are therefore limited.

    About 2000 workers are killed EVERY YEAR year in the petroleum industry. It is known than millions have their lived shortened by inhaling the combustion by-products of coal and oil (and burning wood, etc) which are on-going activities. These related civilian deaths happen every year even without a disaster, and are therefore unlimited

    Obviously, these are different industries in substance, scope, etc so the numbers are not directly comparable but it should also be remembered that, very-rare-disasters aside, in day-to-day operation nuclear kills NOBODY while providing very concentrated sources of completely clean energy that can power ANYTHING directly (heating, lights, appliances, trains, cars...). Power from various forms of combustion can be used the same way in power plants, but is most-often distributed throughout society where most of the population is exposed to some of the pollutants and byproducts and risk of handling the materials and waste. Only a tiny percent of the population handles nuclear fuel. Much of the population personally handles gasoline or diesel or propane. Every time a person handles a fuel, he or she is doing something risky. The people who handle a fuel in quantities, like the guys transporting fuel to gas stations in semi trucks are at higher risk. The statistics bear this out.

    Nuclear is easy to demonize. It is mysterious to most people, where burning things is familiar. Its method of killing (radiation) is invisible and cannot be detected without a science-y gadget that clicks or beeps, whereas fires and explosions and pools of spilled oozes and volatile vapors are easy to see and we can imagine ourselves side-stepping them.

    1. Re:Actually a subset of a larger Phenomenon by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      Yes but the real irony is that radiation is scary because its invisible - but the pollution from burning coal is also invisible. As for danger burning coal is estimated to kill 750,000 a year in China alone, and coal is statistically something like 1,000 times more dangerous than nuclear.. This creates the fascinating statistic that 5 to 10 million extra people have been indirectly killed by the anti-nuclear protest crowd - by coal pollution..

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
  26. Kryptonite by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

    Japan should really keep it's distance from anything nuclear.

  27. bullsh!t by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    keep this psedudoscience propaganda off slashdot pls

  28. Most here have the opposite problem. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At least when it's an accident somewhere else. Then it's all "There have been NO deaths due to radiation!". Rather carefully tiptoeing around the fact that immediately lethal doses of radiation outside of a nuclear bomb ground zero don't happen, it takes years or decades to die from an *eventually* fatal dose, and many are just handicapped by cancer and die from other causes.

    Often the same ones who scream and cry about terrorism threats or ISIS threats to the USA, Islamic ffundamentalists in the USA, UN or climate change being a cover for a NWO, the US armed forces invading Texas or some other weird shit like that.

    Because these are risks that they feel they are living under, therefore not overblown.

    I have to ask: if they hadn't moved these people, how many would have had complications due to radiactive damage, such as Iodine poisoning?

  29. "radiation-related hysteria" ??? by fygment · · Score: 1

    It was Japan. The only hysteria was in the behaviour of the Western media trying to milk the story. "Hysteria" in Japan only seems to exist in low budget monster movies.

    --
    "Consensus" in science is _always_ a political construct.
  30. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  31. Re:Another Misattribution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is an entire superset of psychology dedicated to understanding these choices. If it were as simple as one side winning the propaganda war, it would be a course in marketing.

    This is complex stuff. Start here

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...

    The nuclear PR machine established this psychology at the dawn of nuclear power with slogans like 'too cheap to meter' and 'lightning striking twice in the same place'. Your assessment of risk is influenced by your understanding of the facts. The more facts you have about the nuclear industry the more you increase your ability to understand it's inherent risks.

    The accusation that the arguments against nuclear power come down to the things you claim about risk perception is another manifestation of social proof and the mechanisms the brain employs to reduce the amount of effort it takes to assimilate information, which in the case of the complexity of the nuclear industry, is really hard.

    Case in point, ask yourself if you know what bio-accumulation is and how radionuclides propagate in the food chain. Ask yourself if you know what a LER or BDI is and what their relationship to nuclear accidents are. If you don't then you are not really looking at the complex stuff and you are not really educating yourself on the actual risks. What you are doing is making judgement calls on the amount of mental effort others have made to draw their conclusions based on your own.

    I can assure you, the nuclear industry is far more complex than your wiki link.

  32. Re:Leftism is inherently hypocritical. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    Whilst the right expects reasonable people to lie down and be steamrollered whilst your blissfully unaffected life goes on forever at the expense of others.

    The right wing brought us nut jobs like Hitler, you are the source of fascism and torture around the world as you drag the world further into poverty so you can have more.

    You are the demise of democracy everywhere.

  33. bogus by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    when the FUCK was the last time you were stressed out and died? im not saying it couldnt happen, but it's certainly not more likely than dying from a NUCLEAR MELTDOWN.

    don't believe the paid hype, dice is trying to sell you out

    1. Re:bogus by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      The accident at Fukushima has also indirectly caused some 10,000 to 50,000 deaths from coal pollution because Japan in fear switched from nuclear to burning coal. ~The blame for that of course should go directly to the Japanese anti-nuclear protestors..
      (The total kill from nuclear power is 0.0 to 0.2 million - whereas the total kill form anti-nuclear protest is some 5 to 10 million, again from coal pollution.)

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
  34. except by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hitler was a NATIONAL SOCIALIST. His party's actual name was "National Socialist German Workers' Party", the 1st word of which is pronounced "Nahtzeeonahl" by German-speakers (hence the nick-name "NAZI"). If you look on the old newsreels or read the actual captured Nazi documents, you will see the initials N.S.D.A.P. all over the place; the German initials for National Socialist Deutsch Arbeit Partie (Deutsch=German and Arbeit=work/workers).

    Now that you have been given more history than you apparently accumulated in years of propaganda from left-leaning unionized school teachers who want you to think everything "left" is good and everything "right" is bad, you ought to think about just how ignorant and foolish you look when you pretend that Nazi has anything to do with the end of the political spectrum that HATES socialism. Your "Nazi == right wing" drivel makes as much sense as claiming the Pope is the world's biggest abortion advocate... you could not be more wrong, except in modern academia where tenured insanity rules.

    1. Re:except by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      The NSDAP had that name in 1920, well before Hitler took over, and Hitler was not one to confuse things by changing names or propaganda. As initially founded, it had nationalist and socialist wings, and Hitler eliminated the socialists in the early 1930s. Hitler's rise to power depended heavily on Goering developing good relations with major industrialists, which is not consistent with socialism. It also depended heavily on anti-Communist propaganda, and (after his early involvement in Bavaria's brief post-war fling with communism) Hitler was against socialist parties.

      Once Hitler took power, he cooperated with the big capitalists. All unions were abolished, replaced by a state-run union that basically existed as lubricant for the capitalists to screw the workers.

      It's ironic that people take words seriously when Hitler used them. Hitler was very happy to lie as long as it served his purposes, more so than most politicians today.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    2. Re:except by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thank you for setting that prick straight.

  35. Depends on the humans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There are some humans I fully trust with nuclear power, there are others however who should never be left unattended with pointy objects.

    This continual left-wing drumbeat that all people are equal (in all way, nut just equal in value as human beings) and that all belief systems are equal, and that we therefore must keep all people away from some technologies because SOME people might abuse them is rather tiresome and ignorant.

    Ideologies matter. Beliefs matter. Philosophies matter. Different ideologies ARE of different value and people with some beliefs and philosophies can be trusted while people with some other philosophies cannot. If you disagree, then presumably you'd be FINE being ruled by Nazis or maniacal cannibals (since apparently all beliefs and ideologies are equal...)

    People who have some beliefs and are reasonably competent can be trusted with even the most-dangerous technologies; they will strive to use them (or not use them) as safely as possible, taking all necessary precautions. Others will turn boxcutters and airliners into weapons if you give them a chance.

  36. Ceisum-137!!! Heart problems! Cheaper? Safer? NOT. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cesium-137 supposedly has a 30 year half life(10 yrs X 30 = 300 yrs). Normal radiation detectors DO NOT detect it, you need a 'Cesium Detector'.

    It takes at least 10 half-lifes to get close to inert...I would suggest 20 half-lifes is more accurate. Even with 10 half-lifes X 30 years = 300 Years MINIMUM. So if you and I live to 100, that is 3 generations that will be affected by this Nuclear Power disaster. Your granchildren's children at a minimum.

    Some say more Cesium-137 was released in Fukushima than in Chernobyl. While I do not know about that, I do know about this (and you should as well)

    Chernobyl, scientists returned approx 26 years later (close to 30 years or one half-life), the amount of Cesium-137 should have reduced by 1/2. The amounts measured were GREATER than reported. This means:

    1. More Cesium-137 was released than the Government reported (easily believable) OR

    2. Cesium-137 does not break down in nature the same in a labortory, i.e. 1 half life for Cesium-137 is greater than 30 years (hope not3.

    We will not know the truth about Chernobyl for another 30 years as the only Cesium-137 readings we can rely on were taken by those scientists 25 - 27 years after the event.

    There was an increase in heart defects in the Ohio Valley through to Pennsylvania shortly after the event. The few baby doctors reporting this were ignored. Some suggest that Cesium-137 can get into the jet stream without the need for an explosion. Regardless its in the water table, in the ocean, and will be for the next 300+ years.

    Each spring, when pollen is released at altitude by the Pine Tree's Pine Cones, laden with Cesium-137 sucked up into the tree already, areas within reach of those winds will be re-contaminated, at least for the next 300 years.

    Radioactive debris from the Tsunami was reported on the West Coast of the USA and Canada many months ago, so only a fool would think that Cesium-137 is not already in the food chain.

    I could go on an on...all true, all facts, nothing misleading. But too many insane fools have their head somewhere else when it comes to Nuclear power.

    ...they say its cheaper...NOT. Casking costs allot of money and the casks only last for 100 years...start to crack at 50 years...Cesium-137 only has a half life of 30 years (300 years of casking)...There are radioactive isotopes that have a half life of 24,000 years... How much will it cost to re-cask that every 100 years. No wonder the industry wants to dump it in the ocean or have a facility like Yucca Mtns where its out of site and out of mind. ITS NOT CHEAPER based on this fact alone. Much less the reality that it takes government funding to build one and they do not last that long anywya.

    ...they say its safe...NOT. If you ignore 3 mile island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, I would direct you to read the weekly reports for the industry and see all the various trace amounts that leak into the waterways every week...some plant somewhere is leaking something. And these plants are not built for an 'unlimited' lifetime. They were to be moth-balled after about 30 years. So take your costs + the casking of the waste radiation for hundreds of thousands of years and explain exactly how its cheaper than ANY other source of energy? Yea right, ITS NOT.

    ..they say we can not live without it. In Japan, when all the plants were off, they did experience rolling brownouts in some areas initially, but before they quickly brought some of the plants online, they were no longer having brownouts. Proving they did not need it. Can't have the public thinking that can we, boy they started those plants back up again real fast...pathetic.

    ...When you seriously think about it, AND FOLLOW THE MONEY, you would have to be insane to be for Nuclear power. Unless you look at weapons. How much does it cost to create a shell tipped with armor piercing shells? And that is not the most costly weapons produced with this technology.

    When it comes right down to it, the only reason for NUCLEAR POWER is WEAPONS! Nothing else makes sense.

  37. dealing with uncertainty, real time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Remember, this was in the middle of a disaster, that caused several other disasters. There was the earthquake and aftershocks. There were the tsunamis. And there was the damage to the nuclear power plants. And there were fires. Earthquakes can cause fires. Large earthquakes affecting man made structures will cause fires.
    Earthquakes of this magnitude, heck even a 5.5 mag. is not a single event, but continues with aftershocks for weeks. Often aftershocks in a local area can be close or bigger in effect than the first main quake. (I've lived through a bunch in Southern Calif.)
    Then there was the possibility of more tsunamis. If there were, I hadn't heard of any causing any damage, but if you were there near the ocean you probably moved to higher ground just in case.
    Then there was the continuing issue of the damage to the nuclear power plants.
    It such a situation people are faced with making decisions of what to do, or not do. Hours, days, months, or years later, we sometimes find out if the best decision was made.
    Had the spent fuel in the cooling ponds at Fukushima caught fire, then everyone would be hailing the wise decision to evacuate. Not knowing with any kind of precision, only the possibility of that happening--2%? 87%? what would you do?
    Ah, you plan for disasters ahead of time, so you already have a pre-planed, rational plane of action, that will precisely tell you exactly how many people if any to evacuate so the number of deaths from the evacuation and the number of deaths from the disaster add up to the perfect number that is the lowest number of deaths.
    Except of the 100 people in the government ministry who wrote the disaster plan, only 11 can get to work that day, and there is no electricity in the building, and besides, glass is falling off the building making it too dangerous to try to get it, and you never planned for this exact disaster...etc., etc.

    I also notice that no one seems to be criticizing anyone moving to higher ground, even though as far as I know tsunamis stopped after the first group. Sometimes the best precautionary decision to evacuate is being overly cautious. The nuclear plant situation had the potential to kill a lot of people. Fortunately it didn't, although many of the plant workers are at risk of cancers.

    Several hours after the 1971 Sylmar, renamed the San Fernando Earthquake, in the northern area of Los Angeles, there was a risk of the Van Norman Damn, a large reservoir collapsing:
    http://articles.latimes.com/1996-02-04/news/mn-32287_1_san-fernando-quake

    From the article: "Later, a UCLA study estimated that collapse of the dam would have brought flooding that could have killed between 71,600 and 123,400 people." A large area and 80,000 people were evacuated. It didn't collapse.

    My neighborhood was in the evacuation zone for about an hour, then we were not. It happened at 6 AM. I went outside with the terrified family dog. We were less than 10 miles from the epicenter. Aftershocks made it hard to stand at times. This was a 5.7 magnitude earthquake lasting 12 seconds. The Japanese quake lasted 6 minutes, and I can assure you mother earth was ringing like a bell for a longer than than. Aftershocks are occurring several times a minute. I had the dog in my lap on a patio lounge chair, maybe 10 minutes after the initial shock, when another aftershock came. I could hear it coming like a freight train as it shook things, and could see waves in the soil as it came, brick walls crashing down, the upper branches of 30-40 foot tall trees in our backyard jerking back and forth 10 feet in a less than a second. Having climbed those trees as a boy, I knew if you were up there you would have been flung off 10, 20, 50 feet; no way you could hang on. In every direction I looked I could see smoke from fires near and far. Every now and them a blue flash from a power transformer exploding.
    Faced with the situation I was in, again, do you stay? do you leave? You don't have enough information to do anything other than make a gut decision. Electricit

  38. Fossil fuels by DrYak · · Score: 1

    Reality: you can be fascinated by the technology, but realize that nuclear power is the most expensive technology ever invented by man.

    Of course if plants burning fossil fuels (Coal, Gaz, etc.) don't need to be held accountable for the countless respiratory disease that they cause by pumping out tons of pollution in the atmosphere.
    (and that's just the direct effect of putting shit into people's lung by polluting the air. I'm not even starting on the impact on global warming/climate change).

    much less storing the waste for hundreds of years.

    yup, let's panic about a couple of tons of radioactive waste.
    it's so much better instead to rely on a method that constantly dumps countless tons of shit, diluted into the atmosphere (hey, no single waste storage place to be bickering about !) and eventually stored into the lungs of the general population.

    Nuclear power == corporate pork and fluffing Tom Swift fanboys.

    Coal/Gaz/etc. power == using general population's lungs as sewer system.

    Yup. Nuclear energy isn't perfect. Indeed it does have its problems. I agree we could do better (hydroelectric, solar, wind, etc.).
    But compared to what is currently used in lots of place, nuclear is *definitely less worse*.

    You always need to thing about *what other technologie* one specific energy is competing.
    What is the alternative.

    As much as you would like the alternative to be wind farms, and solar panels, the reality is that the alternative against which nuclear power is competing is mainly burning fossil fuel and filling the atmosphere with its waste. On a scale that is order of magnitude more polluting and problematic than nuclear for a given amount of output energy.

    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
    1. Re:Fossil fuels by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      yup, let's panic about a couple of tons of radioactive waste.

      A couple? How many tons are generated from a single nuclear plant? How much will be generated if coal plants are replaced with nuclear power plants, rather than other forms of power generation.

      And that's still ignoring the time scale. How enthused would you be if you had to deal with radioactive waste left by Charlemange?

      it's so much better instead to rely on a method that constantly dumps countless tons of shit, diluted into the atmosphere

      There's the false dichotomy crutch, again. If you don't want nuclear, it means you must want coal. If you don't want GMO foods, it means you want your meat from factory farms where the pigs/chicken/cows can't even stand free from their own shit. If you don't support the invasion of Iraq, it means you must love Saddam.

      Etc, etc, etc.

      But compared to what is currently used in lots of place, nuclear is *definitely less worse*.

      Nuclear power is unjustifiable, and that's putting aside completely the risk of meltdowns. Don't bother to claim otherwise until nuclear power companies roll the complete cost of mining, refinement, construction, maintenance, security, insurance, disaster preparedness, and of course storing the waste for hundreds of years into the rates it charges to customers.

      As much as you would like the alternative to be wind farms, and solar panels, the reality is that the alternative against which nuclear power is competing is mainly burning fossil fuel and filling the atmosphere with its waste.

      The reality is this a problem solvable with technology that has existed since the 70's. Solar and wind are already cost-competitive with coal, and that's if you let coal externalize much of their costs (pollution and damage from mining), much less nuclear.