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The Global Struggle To Prevent Cyberwar

blottsie writes: What constitutes war in the 21st century? In an age of almost constant cyberattacks against major corporations and world governments, the consensus among international-law experts is clear: Nobody knows. This sweeping Daily Dot investigation explores the ongoing struggle to define "cyberwar," the increasing geopolitical aggression in cyberspace, and the major players now attempting to write the rules of online battlefields before it's too late.

"Technical experts and legal scholars repeatedly stress that the idea of a 'cyber Pearl Harbor'—a devastating sneak attack on U.S. infrastructure by a powerful state actor that launched a sustained international conflict—is wildly overblown. Right now, Watts said, 'states bite at one another’s ankles in a way to impede progress or to harass them,' but 'as for the likelihood of a major cyber war, I would rate it pretty low.'

Cyber armageddon may be extremely unlikely, but the many attacks below the level of formal armed conflict have still extracted a staggering price, in both economic and political terms. ... For starters, cyber-arms control is effectively hopeless. There’s no point, experts say, in trying to contain the spread of offensive cyber technology. Instead, the best hope for international law is to focus on reducing the incentives for malicious behavior."

34 of 57 comments (clear)

  1. We have always been at war with Eurasia. by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

    The nature of mankind is conflict. When we had rocks, we threw rocks. When we had bombs, we dropped bombs. When we had nuclear weapons we stepped back a bit, continued with the rocks and bombs and added computers.

    May you live in interesting times.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    1. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      The nature of mankind is conflict.

      What is really remarkable about modern humans, compared to other species, is how rarely we kill each other. Intra-species violence is more common in most other animals. Another remarkable trait of humans, is that when we do have conflict, how much we cooperate in doing so. A band of a dozen chimps may attack a neighboring band, but humans form armies of millions. Only ants are in the same league.

    2. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by gstoddart · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure that, taken across the planet and in smaller scales, you'll find humans are pretty much constantly killing one another.

      Those of us living in nice communities in Western countries don't see it as much.

      But, really, throughout much of the world, humans killing humans has been a staple of life pretty much forever. There's a lot of places where life is pretty cheap.

      At a nation to nation scale it may seem well ordered and small, but on smaller scales I'd venture to say it's pretty pervasive.

      I'm betting the number of people who will die today from human to human violence is probably a staggering number.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    3. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by meta-monkey · · Score: 1
      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    4. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure that, taken across the planet and in smaller scales, you'll find humans are pretty much constantly killing one another.

      There are 7 billion people. So even a very low level of violence is going to mean someone somewhere is killing someone. The chance of a human dying at the hands of another human is less than 1%. In many other species, including most apes, it is an order of magnitude more likely, and is often the leading cause of death.

      I'm betting the number of people who will die today from human to human violence is probably a staggering number.

      The only really big conflict in the world today is the civil war in Syria, which averages a few hundred deaths per day. The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are smaller. Worldwide, there are about 1200 murders per day. So the overall death toll from humans intentionally killing humans, is probably under 2000 per day. In a population of 7 billion, I don't think that is "staggering", especially compared to heart disease, cancer, or even vehicle accidents.

    5. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Sure you can... they're part of your nuclear family!

    6. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      The nature of mankind is conflict.

      What is really remarkable about modern humans, compared to other species, is how rarely we kill each other. Intra-species violence is more common in most other animals. Another remarkable trait of humans, is that when we do have conflict, how much we cooperate in doing so. A band of a dozen chimps may attack a neighboring band, but humans form armies of millions. Only ants are in the same league.

      In 2010, 456,000 people were murdered worldwide.

      In the US, 666,160 people were murdered between 1960 and 1996. Murder is the leading cause of death for young African males.

      The good news is that murder rates have indeed dropped since medieval times ( I'm not certain how that was compiled)

      But let's look at say, the 20th century

      WW1 37 million casualties

      WW2 - 60 million

      Korean War ~1.2 million Vietnam ~1.5 million

      Iraq from 2003 to present is probably a half million

      And gawd knows the other folks involved in our killing lust.

      What I find remarkable is that you think tehis is no big deal, and we are remarkable peacful folks.

      Can you tell me what other species has killed like we do?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    7. Re:We have always been at war with Eurasia. by invictusvoyd · · Score: 1

      When we had nuclear weapons we stepped back a bit, continued with the rocks and bombs

      Correction : When we had nuclear weapons we used them once , got scared when we saw what happened and then stepped back a bit and continued with the rocks and bombs

  2. cyber hides facts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Cyber-spam. Almost everyone who uses the word cyber is out with bulshit.

    What we need is proper product liability for people who sell things containing or based on inadequate software. Even if states stopped there would still be enough criminals out there wanting to break and steal things.

  3. Internet sanctions? by swb · · Score: 1

    We already see international business sanctions -- the embargo of specific goods or services, banking access, oil sales, etc. You can make arguments for and against their effectiveness or even usefulness, but they are still pursued for reasons both publicity-related and practical.

    Will we ever see "internet sanctions" where nations have their Internet access to the US limited or blocked?

    1. Re:Internet sanctions? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Will we ever see "internet sanctions" where nations have their Internet access to the US limited or blocked?

      Building a wall to keep out your enemies didn't work with the Picts or the Manchus. It won't work here either. Most security threats are domestic, and many compromises are internal. Snowden didn't penetrate the NSA. He worked for them. The solution is more pervasive encryption (something the US opposes), better compartmentalization, better endpoint security, better penetration testing of both software and human factors, and taking critical information offline. The emergence of "ransomware" also helps, because it gives more people a motivation to improve their habits and demand more secure systems.

    2. Re:Internet sanctions? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      Snowden didn't penetrate the NSA. He worked for them.

      Remember this folks. We have met the enemy and he is us.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  4. A Neverending Struggle by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 4, Funny

    Prevent? No, the cyberwar has long since started, and I fear the forces of good are steadily losing.

    We continue to fight the good fight, straining endlessly against the sea of foes in the cyberwar - against politicians, government staff, corporate drones, PHBs, and even the tech journalists that have betrayed us. Standing with us, but a few ragged, weary veterans of the IT industry - the programmers, the sysadmins, the network engineers, struggling valiantly in our constant fight to get people to stop putting the prefix "cyber" in front of anything and everything.

    1. Re:A Neverending Struggle by meta-monkey · · Score: 2

      We've lost so many good men in the cyberwar.

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
  5. Knee jerk reaction could be scary by Ravaldy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Sounds like the Mr. Robot conspiracy.

    I've read and heard policy makers making suggestions that locking down Internet borders in similar fashion to China. Doing this would be like taking 10 steps back from globalization. I would argue that it's a bad thing while others would encourage it.

    I'm not a cross continent internet connectivity expert but I would assume traffic source can easily be identified. If a country is known for causing havoc, their connectivity should be limited to none or at least regulated. I know this doesn't stop all perpetrators but it complicates the process hence removing some of the culprits.

    We host an IIS server and we have put "honey pots" that hackers have been hitting regularly. 90% of the traffic comes from China and Iran with the other 10% being local (which could be proxies for all we know)

    1. Re:Knee jerk reaction could be scary by Ravaldy · · Score: 1

      Yes. That's what I'm saying. Unfortunately some believe it's a job killer and killer of riches. That's usually a right wing way of thinking.

    2. Re:Knee jerk reaction could be scary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The "globalization is good" dogma has only favored a very small minority at the expense of nearly everyone else.

      Globalization is good for the globe.

      You just don't realize that being "middle-class American", you're massively rich compared to everyone else in the world.

  6. Why is this even an issue? by ErikTheRed · · Score: 1

    There is a breathtaking amount of critical infrastructure that is very lightly protected on intranets if not outright exposed to the public Internet. There is simply no excuse for this. Even if things require, say, cellular monitoring it's very straightforward to use highly restricted VPNs or even MPLS over cellular (especially for an organization the size of most public utilities). The fact that this is even such a major issue is flat-out sad and stupid.

    --

    Help save the critically endangered Blue Iguana
    1. Re:Why is this even an issue? by gstoddart · · Score: 1

      There is a breathtaking amount of critical infrastructure

      But, really, there's your answer.

      There's tons of important stuff. Every day, there's more stuff. A lot of that stuff is protected by security which was designed and implemented by drunken chimpanzees -- or, as often as not, essentially not secured at all.

      There's all that tasty data out there, and data and information is valuable.

      So, from the US and Israel making that Stuxnet thing, or the "Interweb of Stuff" producing products with garbage security ... as long as people have digital things, and there is a benefit to getting those things, and security is in the hands of people who may or may not know what they're doing ... you'll find attacking that information carries value.

      So, government mandated backdoors or weaknesses in crypto, or incompetently implemented security in commercial products ... these things all make this something which is worth chasing for the entities involved.

      If it wasn't worth it, people wouldn't be doing it. Just like all forms of espionage or crime.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  7. TItle is silly by seven+of+five · · Score: 2

    There's obviously more effort towards creating cyberwar, the "struggle" to prevent it isn't much more than hand-wringing. What do you expect?

  8. Offense vs. defense by king+neckbeard · · Score: 2

    If this is really a threat, the best practice would be to have a multinational effort to make sure software is secure, and that vital infrastructure is set up in a secure way. Encryption, air gaps, regular audits of commonly used software, all in the wide open. None of this "save this 0-day exploit for a good target" bullshit, just focus on getting things fixed.

    --
    This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
  9. What a load of cyber BS .. by nickweller · · Score: 1

    "The cyberwar era arguably began two hours before midnight on April 26, 2007 .. The hackers were using a technique called a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack." consisting of a vast number of compromised Microsoft Windows desktops ..

  10. Cyberwar may be neccesary as a learning moment by NotDrWho · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We've become way too dependent on the internet and the idea that it will always be there and can always be relied on and trusted. Cyberwar, for all its negative outcomes, might at least teach a lot of industries, government agencies, systems engineers, etc. that there should ALWAYS BE A BACKUP OFF THE NETWORK and that there should always be a plan to isolate any system from the grid. No important system should be utterly dependent and totally on the internet or even an internal network.

    I'm not saying we have to go all William Adama and forgo the internet altogether. But we should definitely end this idea that the internet (or any network) infrastructure is always reliable and always friendly.

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    1. Re:Cyberwar may be neccesary as a learning moment by Lord+Duran · · Score: 1

      Not so sure about that.
      We've had the internet, up alive and working for what, going on 20 years now? With no major outages? Redundancy every step of the way? I think it's OK to assume that the Internet will be around excepting armageddon or maybe a world war.

      That said, any one system can be taken offline by targeting it specifically.

  11. Internet Phase-Out by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

    The Internet was built from the ground up with fault-tolerant collaboration at the heart. It never occurred to the well meaning scientists and engineers that some of the users would be out and out assholes.

    Internet 3 should be designed with jobs one, two and three being near-paranoiac levels of security (AND ANONYMITY) and purpose-built such that all the existing hardware-embedded code (bugs and all) won't even work, such that the entire 'net and equipment have no legacy garbage with neither lazy (corporate) nor intentional (governmental) backdoors built in (verified via all open code).

    Of course, given the twin costs of new hardware and the spooks losing all their peepholes, none of this will ever happen (right, Langley?).

    1. Re:Internet Phase-Out by jc42 · · Score: 1

      The Internet was built from the ground up with fault-tolerant collaboration at the heart. It never occurred to the well meaning scientists and engineers that some of the users would be out and out assholes.

      Huh? The design and implementation of the Internet, and its predecessor the ARPAnet, was done with roughly 99% military funding. The fault tolerance was there from the start, because the military explicitly wanted a comm system that would survive constant attack by enemies under battle conditions. The scientists and engineers involved understood this quite well, and testing by implementing and running "cyberattack" software was routine from the very early days.

      Saying that such attacks "never occurred to the well meaning scientists and engineers" not only shows ignorance of how the Internet came to be, but also dismisses the hard work of a lot of the people who created it. I worked on a number of test suites back in the 1980s that could be (and sometimes explicitly were) characterized as "attack" packages. This was neither a joke nor an accusation; it was a simple description of how the test suites worked. Stress testing and testing-to-destruction is an old concept in most kinds of engineering, and the ARPA/Internet was no exception.

      One of the real problems is that the commercial Internet is managed by companies that have a strong motive to save money by cutting back on "unnecessary" things like testing and redundancy (so that the saved money can be redirected to managers' bonuses, of course ;-). But this was actually understood quite well by the military funders. It's part of why the design didn't include low-level security, but emphasized redundancy and a "just deliver the bits undamaged" approach. It was understood that the only meaningful security is the type called "end-to-end", where the participants in a conversations are the ones that provide and manage the security. If you rely on the suppliers of the low-level equipment, they'll always take shortcuts that make the security worthless. That's pretty much exactly how the Internet works, and always will.

      --
      Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
  12. I will tell that to Southern China by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    They're having factories and buildings explode every day in a coordinated nationwide Islamic terrorist attack.

    Cyberwar is the LEAST of their problems.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  13. Backbone providers need to do more to solve this.. by CSG_SurferDude · · Score: 1

    I'm seeing tons of attacks coming from China and Hong Kong ( http://longtail.it.marist.edu/... ), but only Level 3 seems to be doing anything about blocking them http://www.lightreading.com/se... Even though they'll never be able to block all the attacks, the backbone providers could at least slow them down.

  14. cooperation by swell · · Score: 1

    We can't expect politicians, bureaucrats or international business to cooperate freely with others around the world. They perceive a world of competition, a world of scarcity in which winning requires others to lose.

    But there is another way.

    Scientists and engineers around the world have cooperated in the most important projects of our time: the International Space Station; the LHC; the Genome Project; Linux... Scientists often cooperate on medical, climate and other research. Engineers cooperate on Github, maker mobs and elsewhere.

    Scientists and engineers are generally more interested in the fruits of their labor than the ebb and flow of political/military interests. They (we) can simply ignore their small minded governments and cooperate toward a free and safe internet for all.

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
  15. Yeah but... by olyar · · Score: 1

    "Technical experts and legal scholars repeatedly stress that the idea of a 'cyber Pearl Harbor'—a devastating sneak attack on U.S. infrastructure by a powerful state actor that launched a sustained international conflict—is wildly overblown"

    No one expects the Spanish Inquisition

    --
    Custom, hands-free Linux installs. Instalinux
  16. better term by sacrilicious · · Score: 1

    Cyber armageddon

    Can we all agree on "cybergeddon"?

    --
    - First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then ???, then profit.
  17. SCADA Controllers - They Control Everything by IonOtter · · Score: 1

    Everyone is so scared of these invisible bad guys going after infrastructure, such as power plants, dams and water treatment plants.

    Let's think of something even more important. Let's think Wonder Bread. A few lines of code, and *bam!*, you've shut down the production line on a factory that's used to churning out 10,000 loaves of bread per day. Do that for a sugar plant and see what happens. How about an operation that makes chicken and hog feed?

    Everyone is so focused on the big stuff. Lemme tell you, if the bread plant even loses connectivity...it shuts down. Because it doesn't know how much of the product to make! Better to not make anything, and endure a temporary shortage, than to make too much that will go to waste.

    You don't have to worry about the sewage treatment plant getting attacked, when there's not going to be anything for people to poop out.

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    [End Of Line]
  18. Switch to secure operating systems by ka9dgx · · Score: 1

    We could as a community decide to switch to secure operating systems, the kind that never, ever trust program code to do what it says on the tin. This would require a lot of coding, but nothing more than the scope of GNU/Linux. This would eliminate viruses, spyware, and a whole host of other problems. I look forward to the day when I can tell the OS which files to allow an application to use... until then it's going to keep getting worse.

  19. Re:Lets outlaw the word Cyber by jc42 · · Score: 1

    Nah; the "cyber-" prefix is useful. It's a clear clue that the writer/speaker is relatively clueless about all that interwebs stuff, and only knows a few techie-sounding terms that they use to sound like they know something. Banning the use of such linguistic clues would merely make it a bit more difficult to recognize cluelessness, since we'd have to actually read their comments to decide that they're not worth reading.

    It's similar to the use of "hacker", which is another scare term, but it's useful as a clue that the writer is relatively clueless about computer-security issues.

    The (mis)use of such terms is also a useful clue to those of us who are trying to find the people who need some educating about technical issues. But that's a different topic, so we should start a new thread if we want to talk about it.

    --
    Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.