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B612 Foundation Loses Partnership With NASA; Asteroids Not a Significant Risk
StartsWithABang writes: Yes, asteroids might be humanity's undoing in the worst-case scenario. It's how the dinosaurs went down, and it could happen to us, too. The B612 foundation has been working to protect us by mapping and then learning to deflect potential threats to our planet, but their proposed mission needed $450 million, a goal they've fallen well short of. As a result, NASA has severed their partnership, which is a good thing for humanity: the risk assessment figures show that worrying about killer asteroids is largely a waste.
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I think in that case a-salt rifles would be more appropriate
Careful, at this rate, we might have to put a price to a human life (or even the human race) which is not very PC.
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450 million is chump change for the knowledge that we need to eliminate a 1 in 100,000 risk for the entire planet. One single subway line for one US city costs upwards of a billion dollars.
The project was cancelled because NASA is underfunded, not because it's not worthy of funding.
B612 lost their Space Act Agreement because they were missing their deadlines and because they weren't talking to NASA about it. I had several people at NASA tell me that they were frustrated about the lack of communication from B612 about their problems. It was only a matter of time before the SAA agreement was canceled.
Myopia will be our species' downfall. The sad thing is, we will have known better. The universe has given us plenty warning, many truths stare us down, but short term profit and willful ignorance will blind us to the bitter end. I wonder how many intelligent (by human standards) species across the universe have been wiped out similarly?
Blanche, Dorothy, Sophia, and Rose can save the day should an asteroid ever threaten humanity again.
I had a double-take there for a sec, as those were names of four of our chickens. I imagined a snippet of several hens flying off to save humanity.
If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
On the other hand, if it's big enough to wipe out life on Earth we wouldn't be able to stop it anyway.
Are you sure about that? 100% completely sure?
What if we had 50 years warning? Still sure?
We humans are incredibly bad at dealing with a low CHANCE of really really bad things happening. The problem is that, as shown in the discussions here, the idea of RISK is misunderstood. There is a CHANCE of something happening, yes. But that is not the same as the RISK of something happening. The RISK is the CHANCE multiplied by some metric of how bad the thing is. It is RISK that should guide policy, not the CHANCE. (I'm capitalizing these to indicate they are mathematical variables) . When it comes to nuclear plant meltdowns or asteroid collisions, people tend to look only at the CHANCE of it happening in their own lifetime. I that is low, the RISK is forgotten. The problem with this thinking is that eventually a species that guides policy this way will become extinct. If we are the "thinking species" it's high time we got on with some serious thinking. CHANCE X "DEGREE OF BADNESS" = RISK
We humans are incredibly bad at dealing with a low CHANCE of really really bad things happening. The problem is that, as shown in the discussions here, the idea of RISK is misunderstood. There is a CHANCE of something happening, yes. But that is not the same as the RISK of something happening. The RISK is the CHANCE multiplied by some metric of how bad the thing is. It is RISK that should guide policy, not the CHANCE. (I'm capitalizing these to indicate they are mathematical variables) . When it comes to nuclear plant meltdowns or asteroid collisions, people tend to look only at the CHANCE of it happening in their own lifetime. I that is low, the RISK is forgotten. The problem with this thinking is that eventually a species that guides policy this way will become extinct. If we are the "thinking species" it's high time we got on with some serious thinking. CHANCE X "DEGREE OF BADNESS" = RISK
"He took a duck in the face at 250 knots." -- William Gibson, Pattern Recognition
People are notoriously bad at rationally assessing risk and this is a clear example of one common pattern. People are much more worried about uncommon, but catastrophic risks than they are about common, moderately costly risks. This is exacerbated by risks which reinforce an existing world-view.
It should then come as no surprise that people who believe we should be investing more in space technologies would have a distorted view of the risk posed by asteroid impacts.
So one program to find giant space rocks has ended. There are others.
But in any case, we don't have the ability at the moment to DO anything about it even if we found a rock heading for us. We'd probably need several decades to get our act together, and we have a terrible track record about responding to things like aging sewers where we can pay somebody minimum wage to fix it, versus tens of years of heavy spending (way beyond 450 mill) to come up with a way to stop the asteroid. I don't think humanity is capable of working together in the way it would need to happen.
Sig for hire.
NASA's Office of the Inspector General is fairly disappointed with NASA's progress in NEO detection (much less amelioration) https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/re...
Rusty Schweickart tells me there are an estimated one-million asteroids of 45-ish meters which is Tunguska size http://www.asteroidday.org/ast...
The B612 group has done a poor job of keeping the community (and apparently NASA) informed of their progress and challenges. Perhaps a more transparent effort would work - even showing lack of progress would be progress here. They have indeed struggled with engagement - they only have 600 followers on G+ for example https://plus.google.com/+B612f...
Space slugs are not a real threat.
Sure... That's what they want us to think. Wait - are you one of them and trying to fool us into a false sense of security? I'm on to you!!!
On the internet, nobody knows you're a space slug.
"So long and thanks for all the fish."
A far more likely problem is the inevitable idiot with a spare ion drive after humans start mining asteroids.
While still 50 years away minimum, deflection needed due to asshole is far more likely.
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
That. Is. Awesome.
It really is. Did you have the chickens before the "Happy Monday from the Golden Girls" guy came around? (They've gone missing, I kind of miss them. I looked forward to their posts wishing me a happy day.) If you did then it must have been almost as strange when they popped in.
Either way, that's an excellent choice of names for your critters. A group of chickens followed the path from my neighbor's house (which is actually quite a ways away but she and he both do some work for me) and have opted to live at my house. After having witnessed the chickens in action, I've generally concluded that there must have been some sort of political divide and one team of chickens opted to move out and set up a new community.
At one point I set out to send them home but it turns out that herding chickens is impossible. I don't actually know where they're coming from but the number increases from time to time and they're not like brand new chickens but fully grown things. I can only assume that they tell tales of the group that have wandered away and split from the commune and these new chickens are those sent to find them (and aren't returning) or are those who are also disenfranchised with the other community.
My conclusion is that one group must be, in fact, a tyranny and the oppressed are seeking a new life elsewhere. I also conclude that the freedom loving chickens must be mine because the migration appears to only happen one way. What right-minded chicken would willfully subject themselves to tyranny, obviously. The thing is, I never fed them or invited them and they don't actually appear to have any reason to be here except that now I have them fed. They're also fond of my garden and I don't mind them eating bugs but they've also eaten a few plants along the way. Well, I assume they ate some. They certainly pecked them to death.
So, another oddity is that I've since had guests who say, "Oh, you have chickens?" Which is a pretty dumb question, I guess. Really, I don't. I tell them that I don't have chickens and that they just kind of chose to live here and they don't belong to me. When I left home to go on my journey I was up to six chickens. I have no idea how many chickens I have now. I'm not sure what the neighbors will do when they run out of chickens but I presume they'll buy more and I'll end up with more chickens.
What they SHOULD do is find the evil tyrant that's leading their chickens and eat them. That would end their migration and ensure the freedom loving fowl that have sought refuge in my domain could return to their motherland. A constitution might also be a good idea. I don't mind the chickens, I don't normally eat many eggs either, so it's okay that they live here but I'm sure they must want to return and live among their friends instead of having to run away in the middle of the night to live in a distant land.
They also don't like the house I built them. They prefer to live under the overhang on my woodshed. I'm pretty sure they're communists. I'm okay with that but I'm not sure what I'm going to do when I end up with a yard full of chickens and the society collapses. I'm told that they're probably not good eating. They're also speedy bastards when they want to be. And nosy. I often leave my door open and more than one has wandered into the house.
I'm kind of hoping that there's no drama between the groups. I don't know if chickens go to war or anything (or anything at all about chickens really) but I do know a war would be bad. I'd have commando chickens and I guess that might be interesting.
"So long and thanks for all the fish."
No, the project was cancelled because the B612 Foundation failed to uphold it's end of the contract - they've routinely failed to meet deadlines and to make the reports they're contractually obligated to do.