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Study Finds Higher Rates of Premature Birth Near Fracking Sites (jhsph.edu)

An anonymous reader writes: Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have published a study (abstract) noting that pregnant women are more likely to give birth prematurely if they live close to fracking sites. The researchers used data from 40 counties in Pennsylvania, in which 10,946 babies were born between January 2009 and January 2013. They compared the data with the fast spread of fracking sites across the state — thousands have been built since 2006.

"The researchers found that living in the most active quartile of drilling and production activity was associated with a 40 percent increase in the likelihood of a woman giving birth before 37 weeks of gestation (considered pre-term) and a 30 percent increase in the chance that an obstetrician had labeled their pregnancy "high-risk," a designation that can include factors such as elevated blood pressure or excessive weight gain during pregnancy. When looking at all of the pregnancies in the study, 11 percent of babies were born preterm, with the majority (79 percent) born between 32 and 36 weeks."

131 comments

  1. Why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Why are we letting business men kill civilians? Civil war is coming.

    1. Re:Why by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Because profit. Duh.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    2. Re:Why by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      Why are we letting sensational news articles get in the way of rational discussion and though.
      Areas where there is a lot of Fracking, are also areas where they are often More Remote, and have a poorer population. So they may not be available to proper health care.

      Now the real question is Why isn't there serious study of the environmental impact of fracking. Not just from the oil companies, and not just from groups who have a tendency to be environmental extremist. There are enough areas now to measure water quality and other factors and make a good measurements on what pollutants are out there.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    3. Re:Why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Areas where there is a lot of Fracking, are also areas where they are often More Remote, and have a poorer population. So they may not be available to proper health care.

      The anti-frackers are also part of the AGW agenda, where the scientists make money running studies proving AGW. Also, doctors and hospitals make more money delivering premature babies, how do we know that they aren't deliberately inducing premature births to profit off of this as well?

    4. Re:Why by itsenrique · · Score: 1

      Anti-frackers are usually more interested in clean water.

    5. Re:Why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You're right! This conspiracy goes very deep.

    6. Re:Why by Ranbot · · Score: 1

      ...Now the real question is Why isn't there serious study of the environmental impact of fracking. Not just from the oil companies, and not just from groups who have a tendency to be environmental extremist. There are enough areas now to measure water quality and other factors and make a good measurements on what pollutants are out there.

      Just a couple month ago the USEPA completed a multi-year study of fracking in several areas of the US, which found no risk to groundwater quality. Anti-frackers wrote it off that study claiming the gov't is paid off by the gas companies. Link to USEPA page: http://www2.epa.gov/hfstudy

      The media doesn't help because creating sensationalist news articles is easier and more profitable than attempting to accurately explain complex geology, petroleum engineering techniques, contaminate migration, geochemistry, and risk evaluation to a general public that can't pay attention longer than it takes them to read a headline and click "share."

      FWIW, I have a degree in geology, I am a certified Professional Geologist for Pennsylvania, I am environmental consultant who works with groundwater contamination, I do not work for oil and gas companies, I am generally liberal and typically vote Democrat, and I think fracking is OK. Like anything fracking is not without some risks, but those risks are being greatly exaggerated by the media and activists.

  2. Sooner they pop out sooner they can get to work! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In the fields. They aren't called Sooners for nothing.

  3. Correlation is not causation by Razed+By+TV · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I'm not a shill for the fracking industry. However, a question comes to my mind: Is it possible that it is not the fracking itself, but the stress of knowing that you live near the fracking?

    I wonder if they could model this with mice just to get a little more info on the effects of fracking pollutants.

    1. Re:Correlation is not causation by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Or could it be the general socioeconomic factors prevalent in these same areas?

    2. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      convincing argument

    3. Re:Correlation is not causation by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Wasn't fracking supposed to bring jobs and prosperity to the area?

      --
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      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    4. Re:Correlation is not causation by _Sharp'r_ · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Exactly. What they've done is managed to replicate this study that socioeconomic factors impact premature births by finding something that correlates with low socioeconomic status and then not adjusting for it.

      In the same manner, you could do a study that receiving welfare or jobless benefits causes premature births, or not having a second car causes premature births, or living near railroad track causes premature births, etc.... basically anything which also correlates with low income/living in the poorer part of town.

      From the abstract: "There were no associations of activity with Apgar score, small for gestational age birth, or term birth weight (after adjustment for year). In a posthoc analysis, there was an association with physician-recorded high-risk pregnancy identified from the problem list" In other words, the babies weren't obviously less healthy, but there were more high-risk pregnancies (high risk factors happen before the wells began, at the start of pregnancy) associated, almost as if the premature births and well placement correlation was from some other outside cause...

      Bottom line, if you have a choice over an area of where to put a fracking wellhead, you're going to pick the cheapest place to put it, which will correlate with lower income for the neighbors.

      --
      The party of stupid and the party of evil get together and do something both stupid and evil, then call it bipartisan.
    5. Re: Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      No possible? Hmm, what about frackin chemicals?

      What about them?

    6. Re:Correlation is not causation by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 1

      . . . and was the premature birthrate higher anyway, before fracking started . . . ?

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    7. Re:Correlation is not causation by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      Slashdot does cause morons. Here's the proof.

    8. Re:Correlation is not causation by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 2

      Or could it be the general socioeconomic factors prevalent in these same areas?

      I was wondering the same thing. There usually isn't a lot of fracking in urban affluent areas. It tends to be in rural areas that are much poorer than what you would find in even the below average income areas of a city. Plus access to medical care is considerably less in those areas too.

      My family was from a rural area in Pennsylvania. My grandmother had seven children and was in her seventies the first time she went to a hospital or a doctor's office. The family doctor made house calls back then. But he died when my father was seventeen. So my father hadn't had seen a doctor after that until he was in his seventies either, and has never been checked into a hospital. He was the first person in my family to go to college, and even got his masters. So he was certainly educated.

      I was pretty much raised believing that you only go to the hospital to visit someone, or to die. Granted, as I've gotten (ahem) older, my wife has convinced me otherwise. I went to school as well, and even work in the medical field. But it's difficult to overcome what you're raised to believe.

    9. Re:Correlation is not causation by lowen · · Score: 1

      Been quite a while since we've had a Battlestar Galactica thread.......

    10. Re:Correlation is not causation by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      Wasn't fracking supposed to bring jobs and prosperity to the area?

      I good question if you assume the benefits from a health standpoint are realized in a very short period of time, and they are seen mostly in the limited area of the study. I personally think those would be a stupid assumptions, but I guess you just though it was clever.

    11. Re:Correlation is not causation by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      Not all of those areas where the oil boom is occurring were terribly high up the socioeconomic ladder before the boom started (and some were still recovering from when oil prices tanked in the 80s and things collapsed) and suddenly giving someone who's been poor a large amount of money doesn't make them a wise investor.

      You also get a lot of people coming in from outside the area, so there's not always a lot of sense of community (sometimes the influx of money increases the rent so much that the locals are essentially forced out) in these places, never mind the increase in drugs and other crime that generally follows in the wake of these types of economic booms. Add to that local social services that are in no way funded or staffed to meet the increasing needs and it doesn't paint a pretty picture.

    12. Re:Correlation is not causation by Immerman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Right, no way that unknown chemicals entering the air and water could have any effect. And the fracking companies would surely hand over samples of the chemical soup they use to researchers for rigorous testing, it's not like they've repeatedly refused to even reveal the contents. Oh wait...

      Science doesn't start with explaining the mechanisms behind unexplained phenomena - it starts with confimring that there *are* unexplained phenomena and then searching for the mechanisms.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    13. Re:Correlation is not causation by Adriax · · Score: 1

      I am making the claim people who take medicine prescribed by doctors are statistically more likely to get better.
      Now, as per AC, since I do not propose a mechanism to explain this phenomenon my statement is 100% false and cannot possibly be correct.

      There you go folks. Proof doctors are shams and homeopathy is the one true way to cure people. Go buy lots of bottles of 10000C cures from this store I have no relation to whatsoever and am not receiving money from.

      --
      I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it!
    14. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the abstract page, "... while controlling for potential confounding variables."

    15. Re:Correlation is not causation by orlanz · · Score: 1

      Quoting the researcher:

      “Is it air quality? Is it the stress? They’re the two leading candidates in our minds at this point.”

      Its ok, just slowly take your foot out of your mouth....

    16. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      FTFA:

      They studied the records of 9,384 mothers who gave birth to 10,946 babies between January 2009 and January 2013.

      Either they didn't bother to check the baseline rate or the people funding the study didn't like what it showed. Note that one of the sponsors of the study (Robert Wood Johnson Foundation) also sponsored a webinar featuring Josh Fox, the discredited filmmaker behind "Gaslands".

    17. Re: Correlation is not causation by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 1

      Nobody is suggesting that, however the common argument against this is "well there might be an unknown, so we should dismiss this technology entirely and have it banned".

      If we applied that reasoning to every new technology that ever came out, we'd still be in the stone age.

      And, more to the point of your comment about medicine, medicine almost ALWAYS has unknown side effects, and likely will continue to be that way forever. However of you always dismissed the benefits because of those concerns, then our medicine would really suck right now.

      Same applies to fracking, GMO food, and a lot of other technologies that the "natural is always better" religion always fights against. (And by the way, natural is almost never better.)

    18. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      They controlled for SES and other such variables. It's written in the abstract that you quote. That's why you do multilinear regression, for fuck's sake. What makes you think that your armchair bullshit analysis that you pull out of your giant gaping arsehole is in any way equivalent to people who spent years working on this? Do you seriously think that these researchers don't know how to correct for other such factors?

    19. Re: Correlation is not causation by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      In other words: Oops, he got you there.

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    20. Re:Correlation is not causation by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 5, Informative

      Science doesn't start with explaining the mechanisms behind unexplained phenomena - it starts with confimring that there *are* unexplained phenomena and then searching for the mechanisms.

      This may be so. So let's look at the study's "confirmation" of "unexplained phenomena," shall we? Oh wait -- the study is behind a paywall, so I guess we'll just use what they tell us in the abstract:

      In adjusted models, there was an association between unconventional natural gas development activity and preterm birth that increased across quartiles, with a fourth quartile odds ratio of 1.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.0, 1.9). There were no associations of activity with Apgar score, small for gestational age birth, or term birth weight (after adjustment for year).

      Translation: We looked for 4 things, and only 1 thing was statistically significant. Even for the worst quartile (i.e., that with the most drilling), the effect was only an odds ratio of 1.4, though we have 95% confidence that it was between 1.0 and 1.9.

      Let's note a few things here:

      (1) Odds ratios are not the same as relative risk, which is the more intuitive way of understanding stats. If a study finds a relative risk of 2 for factor X, that means your chances of getting a condition with factor X are twice as much as if you didn't have X. A relative risk of 1.4 means a 40% increase in risk. Odds ratios are more complex and are used for various statistical reasons, but they often tend to exaggerate an effect -- and it's unclear from this abstract what the actual increased risk is. But it's likely less than the 40% listed in TFS.

      (2) Statistically, they have a 95% confidence interval of 1.0 to 1.9. An odds ratio of 1.0 means there is no effect at all. Which means that there's probably a 5% chance the actual effect is outside of this range, possibly down to 1.0 (where there is no effect). The "no effect" line is drawn here where it's barely statistically significant (according to the typical 95% standard) for preterm birth.

      (3) The study was a "retrospective cohort" study, which means that they looked at pre-existing data (rather than a "prospective cohort" which would look at a control group and a study group going forward in future). There are always dangers here in selecting a sample group that happens to line up with your analysis, since you get to pick the group you want. (Since I can't read the rest of the study, I don't know how "selective" they were in choosing which areas to study, for example.)

      (4) The phrase "adjusted models" refers to earlier in the abstract where they talk about the various adjustments made for possible confounding variables and such. They also had a complex model for determining potential exposure based on "an inverse-distance squared model that incorporated distance to the mother's home; dates and durations of well pad development, drilling, and hydraulic fracturing; and production volume during the pregnancy." If that model is tweaked in various ways, it could probably completely change the study results. Anyhow, while such adjustments are important for modelling and confounding factors, they can be manipulated (often unintentionally) by researchers in all sorts of ways.

      (5) They looked for FOUR things, but they only found a statistically significant effect for ONE of them. The chances of finding at least 1 out of 4 things to satisfy a 95% threshold is about 18.5%. So if they threw in random numbers here, at least one of these things would "flag positive" in nearly 1 out of 5 times.

      (6) The abstract only reports the "worst quartile" as having this (already barely) statistically significant effect. Apparently other times of the year these effects were reduced (and possibly didn't even hit the barely statistically significant effect for the worst quartile)... which then leads to the question about how a 4-month window in a study may

    21. Re:Correlation is not causation by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      And are people likely to give birth pre-maturely attracted to fracking towns and want to move?

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    22. Re:Correlation is not causation by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Ben & Jerrys won't even release the trade secrets of their ice cream formulations to the public. Why should the frackers release their trade secrets to hostile scientists?

    23. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "And the fracking companies would surely hand over samples of the chemical soup they use to researchers for rigorous testing, it's not like they've repeatedly refused to even reveal the contents."

      Bullshit. Fracking is performed by hundreds of independent drillers and service companies. I can go down to my local Halliburton or other service company and obtain exactly "the soup" that is used and analyze it to my hearts content. Do you actually know anything about the process? Barring that I can pay some roughneck to get me a sample. You are acting like this is some secretly guarded substance delivered under armed guard to a small number of secure organizations. Shit I can probably get you a sample for the price of a beer.

    24. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      convincing argument

      Facts don't need an argument, idiot.

    25. Re:Correlation is not causation by WSOGMM · · Score: 1

      As it turns out, Taco Bell has a higher presence in fracking regions than other more traditional Mexican food restaurants. I'll bet feeding that shit to yourself causes premature birth.

    26. Re:Correlation is not causation by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 2

      Exactly. What they've done is managed to replicate this study that socioeconomic factors impact premature births by finding something that correlates with low socioeconomic status and then not adjusting for it.

      You conveniently left out the part of the abstract when it says they controlled for "potential confounding variables," which usually includes income and such.

      (Note that I've already posted a detailed comment that points out various potential questions we should raise about this analysis. BUT, I'd say it's highly likely that the researchers DID control for socioeconomic factors -- unfortunately I can't be certain because of the paywall -- but basically all studies of this sort usually do. If they didn't, they'd be complete idiots.)

    27. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Or could it be the general socioeconomic factors prevalent in these same areas?"

      Then it needs to be explained how come there is such a strong correlation between detrimental general socioeconomic factors, and the occurrence of frackable carbo hydrates in those areas.

    28. Re:Correlation is not causation by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 1
      Just to be clear -- I misread a portion of the abstract dealing with "quartiles," but looking at the press release, it's clear my point (6) was wrong. (My other 5 points still stand.)

      On the other hand, I'd like to make sure the findings are robust across other divisions of the data -- looking only at the "worst quartile" could potentially skew things as well. Does the correlation still hold if we look at the worst 1/3, etc.?

    29. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or could it be the general socioeconomic factors prevalent in these same areas?

      I have a feeling that there are more car related injuries in and around cities.
      Just a hunch though,

    30. Re:Correlation is not causation by chmod+a+x+mojo · · Score: 1

      It's an interesting study, but just by looking at the methodology in the abstract there are a few things that pop out as mildly suspicious immediately:

      1: No mention of prior healthcare records from the subjects studied. If a large portion of the subjects didn't have healthcare prior to gas and oil field work provided insurance it will definitely impact how the pregnancy progresses. There was also no mention of what, if any, jobs these women were performing during pregnancy, how many drank alcohol or consumed other street drugs while pregnant, or incidence rates of other known pregnancy affecting actions.

      2: Again, from the abstract only - they didn't provide so much as a ratio equating pregnancy outcomes from this area pre-gas boom. They do have some sort of non-defined ratios that are "adjusted", but don't tell what they are adjust TO. Is it pre-gas boom pregnancies at those localities or is it against nationwide pregnancies?

      3: There are weasel words in the abstract. Stating something may affect something means your study was either flawed or inconclusive, and the authors are trying to weasel their way out of saying that they can't really support what they are saying.

      4: There is nothing in the abstract that states a hypothesis as to WHY living near an active gas extraction zone would cause changes in pregnancy progression, hence the weasel words. The authors can't support that living near gas extraction causes the effects observed in the study, only that the findings in this particular study CORRELATE earlier than "normal" deliveries near site for the data set examined.

      Now maybe the paper addresses these specific issues, but I don't have the time right now to track down if my University Library has access to this particular Journal so that I can read the whole paper.

      --
      To err is human; effective mayhem requires the root password!
    31. Re:Correlation is not causation by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      And as soon as I can as easily avoid the influence of fracking chemicals as I can avoid Ben&Jerry's if I don't feel like trusting them, you even have a comparison that works.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    32. Re: Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not a shill either, but maybe it's actually the premature births that are causing the frakking!

    33. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bottom line, if you have a choice over an area of where to put a fracking wellhead, you're going to pick the cheapest place to put it, which will correlate with lower income for the neighbors.

      It's more than just that. Employment is exploding in these areas. The local infrastructure (medical,etc) is having a hard time keeping up. Add to that, that most of the new jobs being created in that area are manual labor and very physically demanding. Then add in the fact that most people willing to pack up and move to chase a boom are probably poor, unstable, or otherwise desperate. If they were in a good-paying, stable job then why move?

    34. Re:Correlation is not causation by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      I would say stress is a bad term. But a reverse placebo effect. If you are told that something is bad, you will go out of your way make sure the symptoms are happening. A person feels that fracking is causing a bad health environment, so they may not take better care of themselves as they are blaming their issues on the fracking not their poor health choices.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    35. Re:Correlation is not causation by deadweight · · Score: 1

      Frackable carbo-hydrates? Is that potatoes?

    36. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      BUT, I'd say it's highly likely that the researchers DID control for socioeconomic factors.

      Controlling for socioeconomic factors correctly is extremely hard especially when you're comparing a place with high pay/high stress with other more stable places that pay considerably less for the same job.

    37. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      convincing argument

      Facts don't need an argument, idiot.

      All you've proven is that idiots don't need facts....

    38. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's in the journal Epidemiology which is one of the highest ranking journals in the field, so you can drop the bullshit quotes around 'published' to start with, and certainly around 'researchers' - the people involved are on RWJ funding which likely means they're among the most respected scientists in their fields.

      I know it's tough when something that's true doesn't fit with your political agenda, and I know it's tempting to come up with a random excuse as to why this might be misinterpreting data, but pull your head out of your arse and RTFA.

    39. Re:Correlation is not causation by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      I wonder if the follow up story finding error and fail will be touted as loudly.

      Most papers are eventually shown wrong in their conclusions.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    40. Re:Correlation is not causation by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      Thanks. They could be right, but did they control for additional Hulu and Netflix binge watching?

      I am only half joking.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    41. Re:Correlation is not causation by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Perhaps, but can you get me a sample certified to be the stuff being pumped into the ground so that my study has merit? Otherwise it's almost useless - I can get a container of random chemical sludge to test from anywhere. And if we could get certified samples there wouldn't be a host of unanswered questions about the potential effects.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    42. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't know how you single out one thing out of thousands of possibility. Unless there is something solid reason, they is just another scare article to push political agenda.

    43. Re:Correlation is not causation by plopez · · Score: 1

      Or the constant roar of compressor stations. They use aircraft turbine engines to run the compressors for natural gas pipeline. Or sex with drunken meth addled rig hands. Or fumes from diesel engines. Or fumes from burning oil pits. Etc.

      Oil and gas exploration is a dirty and nasty business. The sooner we can replace it with something cleaner the better.

      --
      putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    44. Re: Correlation is not causation by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I don't know... What about them? Do they cause premature births? Do we have evidence that this is the cause without making broad assumptions?

      Let's have that discussion and let's get the data. I'm all for reasoned discussions based on facts. So far, I've mostly seen bias and hyperbole from both sides of the fence.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    45. Re:Correlation is not causation by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I've got your tuber right here, buddy!

      No, I have nothing to contribute. I'm not even sure why I'm in this thread.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    46. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hahahahaha. Wait your serious? You should probably learn to read more objectively rather than rely on the reputation of a journal that is moderated by peers. The worst examples of published science are in the "best journals" by reputation.

    47. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the abstract page, "... while controlling for potential confounding variables."

      Which also can be hand picked by the researcher to make the "research" say whatever he want's it to say.

      Never been near a site myself, but from discussions with others, and via a documetary or two, here's some differences to note:

      Everything is a long drive from everything else
      People idle their diesel trucks everywhere, because it's cold, or they live out of them and run them for electricity, or they run them (pointed down the road) to be able to hop in and speed off in case of well head disaster
      Other people, lots and lots of them, live in new and old trailers and motorhomes or other manufactured housing
      Fresh food, real grocery stores are less prevalent, and fresh food prices are high
      Some "clans" or groups of people were drawn to it, i.e. "travellers", so inbreeding and certain genetics in the population may be out of what 'random samples' can account for People who stay home and "watch the kids" are cooped up in a small house or trailer out in some field all day
      etc.

      I could go on and on. "controlling for socioeconomic factors" may not cover all of the oddball things happening in the communities that don't happen elsewhere.

      This study COULD be like "why are there so many Elvis impersonators in this desert city?" "It must be the weather" while totally missing the gambling / tourist aspect of Las Vegas.

      I am willing to bet, the guy that did the paper relied on some canned database somewhere and didn't actually LIVE in the communities he's supposedly studying.

      The point is moot however, those communities will quickly disburse (or become even more poor if they stay) because the Saudis are trying to break the industry with low prices so they can jack them up again later.

    48. Re: Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No. It's the tracking and the shit slurry of chemicals involved.

      Is it the building crushing you, or the stress of worry of crushing?

      Yea. My vote is on the shit slurry.

      I'm highly doubtful of any company that spends a lot of money on the Jedi mind trick. "These aren't the barrels of shit slurry that are causing your death, move along."

    49. Re:Correlation is not causation by ray-auch · · Score: 1

      Perhaps, but can you get me a sample certified to be the stuff being pumped into the ground so that my study has merit? Otherwise it's almost useless - I can get a container of random chemical sludge to test from anywhere. And if we could get certified samples there wouldn't be a host of unanswered questions about the potential effects.

      of course there would.

      There are certified samples of radiation levels around nuclear power stations, there are also studies showing those levels are too low to have any health effects, and there are also studies showing adverse health effects...

      Same applies to wind turbines, there are plenty of infrasound readings, plenty of industry people saying the levels are too low to affect health, and plenty of reported adverse health effects...

      the same unanswered, or disputed, questions will remain in every case - a) is there a real effect or just a quirk of statistics or noise and b) what is responsible for the effect from the millions of variables.

      Even if you answer those, there are still issues. We have been mining coal for hundreds of years, we have plenty of data on the risks of working in mines and of living near them, and it sure looks like coal mining is the cause. Yet we still mine coal. And when we close the mines, oddly we still have the health problems, yet they get blamed on poverty resulting from the mine closure, not on any residual pollution. This is possibly because there is no owner left to sue, or because people naturally want a fashionable cause to blame for their effect.

    50. Re: Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you took 5 minutes, you could find the report from the EPA that shows what chemicals make up fracking liquids. But, no, you have an agenda to push, so never mind.

    51. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hahaha, wait, you're a moron? You should probably read the whole thread before you comment and look like a shitbrain. The previous post complained that this was published as a press release, in fact it's published in a serious, peer reviewed journal.

      I know you want this to be untrue. That's ok, but the truth doesn't fucking care. Read the paper, look at the work that's been done. Until then, you're just another fucking idiot desperately shitting into his own mouth because he loves the taste of his own output. The research presented was performed by competent scientists and has been reviewed by their scientific peers. I'll take that any day over the words of someone with their head so far up their own arse that they can't be bothered to actually read it before having a bit of a 'reckon' as to what's going on.

    52. Re:Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is is standard for people doing epidemiology studies to ask a lot of questions, test at the statistical 5% level, then write up their (most likely) statistical false positive results.There is good technology for dealing with multiple testing, many choose not to use it. One might say, for self-serving purposes. Most likely the observed correlation will not replicate.

    53. Re: Correlation is not causation by Ranbot · · Score: 1

      A couple points on "frackin chemicals"

      1) Frack fluid mixtures are 99% potable water and sand. The remaining 1% are lubricants and biocides, many of which are food grade. So, less than 1% of frack fluids are chemicals with a potential to harm people.
      2) The frack fluids are injected into GAS bearing rock, so fracking chemicals can't contaminate those waters worse than they were by the naturally occurring gas and oil.

      Furthermore, no one is drinking water from private wells with depths anywhere near these gas formations. Most drinking wells are between 50-500 feet deep, whereas gas wells are between 2,000-14,000 feet deep.

      To echo others correlation is not causation.

    54. Re:Correlation is not causation by Some_Llama · · Score: 1

      aren't we past the confirmation of unexplained phenomena?

  4. Re:Working towards a fix... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    $$$$$$$$

  5. Needs to be looked at more. by alzoron · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm not discounting the possibility that there may be a causal relationship here but from what I see of the article and abstract they only looked at data between 2009 and 2012. Is it possible that these sites have a preexisting condition that would cause higher levels of preterm birth? They should expand their data analysis to a larger period before the fracking occurred. This way we can at the very least see if there is a stronger correlation here and move forward.

    1. Re:Needs to be looked at more. by sycodon · · Score: 1

      I suspect now that they have what they were looking for, they will claim the Science is Settled.

      Next comes the Legislation!

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    2. Re:Needs to be looked at more. by retroworks · · Score: 1

      "Could it be that any geographic location you test for proximity to X can be found to correlate positively to phenomena Y without X causing Y?" What are you trying to do, shut down Slashdot? If I go to a Who concert, I wanna see Townsend bust his guitar.

      --
      Gently reply
    3. Re:Needs to be looked at more. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Could it be that testing a laundry list of possible harms to "95% confidence" will inevitably result in something showing up if the list is long enough?

    4. Re:Needs to be looked at more. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Excellent point!

      Ah, if only slashdot would give this poor AC some mod points. :-)

  6. The Truth About Fracking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    While excavating fracking sites, rusty canteens from the Bush wars were found five feet below the surface. The logos on those canteens? "NATO." Everything we've been told about the past is a lie.

    Hospitals near fracking sites saw unusually high concentrations of premature births in 2012.

    Is this really the world we want our children to grow up in?

    If you think Exxon is what they claim, think again: in 2008, the night before the government bailout, NATO accepted over $150 million in donations from Exxon.

    Wall Street has all but confirmed that they have rigged the markets according to instructions from Exxon, which has been under secret leadership by Dick Cheney for over 2 years now.

    Now that you know the truth, save your family and friends. Let them know the truth.

    1. Re: The Truth About Fracking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I want to believe!

    2. Re:The Truth About Fracking by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      There's no Aliens agenda is your propaganda, therefore it's all lies.

  7. Correlation vs cause by AchilleTalon · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Another researcher who has no clue about correlation and causation. On the same basis it is proven you are much more likely to catch cancer if you live in a rainy state than a dry state. This is not a scientific study, it is propaganda.

    --
    Achille Talon
    Hop!
    1. Re:Correlation vs cause by belthize · · Score: 4, Informative

      Sigh, I suspect they have as much or better clue than you do. It's entirely possible that there is no causal effect. Their study doesn't say there's a causal effect, it's says there's a correlated effect. Even the referenced press release states: "The researchers found that living in the most active quartile of drilling and production activity was associated with a 40 percent increase in the likelihood of a woman giving birth before 37 weeks of gestation."

      Stop viewing science press releases through the filter of whether it conforms to your world view or your superficial understanding of correlation and causation. That whole correlation isn't causation crap is becoming a mantra around here. People parroting it without really understanding what it means or doesn't mean or whether it even f'ing applies to the article in question.

    2. Re:Correlation vs cause by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      Another slashdotter who passes political judgment without RTFA. The FA doesn't say it proved anything. That's all you.

  8. where is the rest of the data? by skoony · · Score: 0

    with out knowing what was going on before fracking began the study is useless. Go back 20 tears prior to the study and let us know what you find.

  9. Hint by alexhs · · Score: 0

    Hint: If you're going to argue that fracking is safe or even actually good for health, you can pick plenty of arguments from yesterday's discussion.

    I mean, if the arguments dismissing your favorite source of cheap energy as being the cause of 20x-50x higher rates in some health issue are working, they certainly should work even better for 30%-40% increases, right ?

    --
    I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of killer sig, which this margin is too narrow to contain.
    1. Re:Hint by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I guess at some point you'll have to decide if you like carrying that anti-nuke FUD banner for the oil-and gas industry or nott, or just keep picking and choosing what rebuttals YOU want to dismiss and what bullshit studies you blindly accept when it is convenient.

    2. Re:Hint by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hint: If you're going to argue that fracking is safe or even actually good for health, you can pick plenty of arguments from yesterday's discussion.

      I mean, if the arguments dismissing your favorite source of cheap energy as being the cause of 20x-50x higher rates in some health issue are working, they certainly should work even better for 30%-40% increases, right ?

      Wut?

      Strawman much?

  10. ...and French Fries Cause Fatal Auto Accidents by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Right. And, this just in... Study finds 65% those involved in fatal auto accidents ate French Fries in the week before the accident :-/

    Give me a break.

    1. Re:...and French Fries Cause Fatal Auto Accidents by sycodon · · Score: 1

      Oh Shit!!!

      I just had French Fries yesterday.

      I am sooo fucked. Should I delete all my porn so save my kids from being shocked?

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    2. Re:...and French Fries Cause Fatal Auto Accidents by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh Shit!!!

      I just had French Fries yesterday.

      I am sooo fucked. Should I delete all my porn so save my kids from being shocked?

      Wait.... you don't have all of your porn in an encrypted file labeled AD784JF78945.temp... time to hand in your geek cred...

    3. Re:...and French Fries Cause Fatal Auto Accidents by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Right. And, this just in... Study finds 65% those involved in fatal auto accidents ate French Fries in the week before the accident :-/

      Give me a break.

      ...and a special survey shows that 98% of slashdot readers think that writing "correlation!=causation" completely undermines the validity of any paper not using pure deductive reasoning.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  11. correlation is not causation-may be other reasons by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Perhaps fracking tends to go on in lower and/or lower middle income areas where people do not watch out for their own health enough.
    Fracking jobs might also attract a demographic more like to have less healthy activities and women more likely to work while pregnant.

    Some causes of premature births:
    -You're younger than 17 or older than 35.
    -You smoke or use illegal drugs.
    -You've had second-trimester miscarriages during previous pregnancies, or you've had three or more elective abortions.
    -You have pre- eclampsia, kidney disease, heart disease, diabetes, an infection or other medical condition.
    -You're not receiving antenatal care from a qualified healthcare provider.
    -You have a cervical infection, such as group B streptococci, gonorrhoea, chlamydia, syphilis, trichomoniasis or gardnerella.
    -job involves extremely strenuous, physical work.

  12. Earthquakes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All that shaking is bound to loosen stuff up, then gravity takes over.

  13. No word on this by robi5 · · Score: 1

    I suppose fracking can happen at random places. However, most of the land area in the US is characterized by lower than average socioeconomic status, as expressed on a per capita basis, for the simple reasons that cities tend to have higher population and higher per capita income. This way, even a random site selection leads to a bias in the welfare of the neighboring population. Add to this that fracking is more restricted in and around large cities.

    While the study may have accounted for these factors, the linked abstract and the long article are silent on these.

    And of course there may be a lot of other factors even if they have.

    1. Re:No word on this by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      I suppose fracking can happen at random places.

      No. It can only happen at suitable sites.

      However, most of the land area in the US is characterized by lower than average socioeconomic status, as expressed on a per capita basis,

      Averages are not that interesting, medians are more useful. The extreme outliers (on the high end only) disturb the graph too badly.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:No word on this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suppose fracking can happen at random places.

      No. It can only happen at suitable sites.

      However, most of the land area in the US is characterized by lower than average socioeconomic status, as expressed on a per capita basis,

      Averages are not that interesting, medians are more useful. The extreme outliers (on the high end only) disturb the graph too badly.

      The 'graph'? Wow, you are a master of statistics Drinkypoo!

  14. Re:Sooner they pop out sooner they can get to work by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

    Obviously Pennsylvanians and Oklahomans are dropping dead because their diets don't include enough iodine, leading to increased uptake-

    Oh wait. That was yesterday's crappy anti-energy 'study'. Next up: Wind turbines will make all birds go extinct.

  15. Was the same correlation there before fracking by jfdavis668 · · Score: 2

    The cause may be in the environment, and not due to fracking itself. Did they check the records before the fracking industry move in? Was it always there? It may just have been an environmental issue that coincides with the land features that trap the gas in the first place.

  16. Premature births cause fracking! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    If you want to stop the spread of fracking, you need to convince these women to carry their children full term.

  17. BS Article by orlanz · · Score: 1

    I read the article* and couldn't find anything that linked the measurement of fracking activity to the measurement of premature births.

    There was a lot of warning verbiage about fracking and a lot of warning verbiage about premature births. They wrapped the two items together without any scientific backing and even stated that their research is still in "infancy" (pun intended?). They mention some points that it could be stress or something else, etc.

    Basically its a prematurely (eh?) written article that is more emotional than factual. Clearly its meant to stir up the "Think of the children" angle for further funding into this research. Which I agree, more research needs to be done and I guess this is the only way to fight the industry and politicians. But that article had no right to be posted on Johns Hopkins website, the school just lost some credibility there.

    * = I am sorry but you can't take my Slashdot card... I ummm... misplaced it.

  18. So... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    living in an area where the water, air, and soil are polluted with dangerous chemicals, can actually have a negative effect on one's health? Who would've known. The scientific conclusions that come out of that big country in the West these days... wow.

  19. Cause of Effect by kaatochacha · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Does fracking cause this, or do poor people with already statistically bad health outcomes live near fracking sites?
    It's not as if Millionaires with nice health insurance live on top of fracking sites.

    1. Re:Cause of Effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They can afford lawyers to protect their interests, and make sure none of that dirty fracking happens anywhere near where the CEO of Exxon lives-
      http://www.usatoday.com/story/...

    2. Re:Cause of Effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So they're doomed anyway. Who cares?

    3. Re:Cause of Effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fort Worth has 50,000 frac sites in the city limits, including sites within 200 ft of two hospitals.

    4. Re:Cause of Effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As alzoron pointed out in another thread, a way to answer this question would be if the study were expanded to include the years before the fracking started. Presumably there hasn't been a mass movement of population that'd invalidate that test.

      Seems like a low-cost way of getting a more convincing answer.

    5. Re:Cause of Effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They frack everywhere, it's not just poor people living near these sites. The head of Exxon recently filed a complaint because they were going to frack near his house.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/21/1279443/-Exxon-CEO-Joins-Lawsuit-to-Stop-Fracking-Near-His-Home

      I'm pretty sure the CEO of Exxon has a couple of bucks.

      This isn't a thing like putting a freeway through a slum, they frack where the gas is.

  20. Don't believe it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Another liberal moonbat lie. Liberals lie about everything.

  21. Other factors I'd like to see by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Age and marital status of the women being studied?

    Cause an equally nonscientific explanation is that young girls get knocked up by "DrillBillys".
    Being an unwed mother or having a shotgun wedding causes stress. which isn't good for pregnancies.

    So the first study looks at environmental causes. This is a possible social explanation.

    Maybe we can study genetic disposition?

  22. Like the doctors say by Culture20 · · Score: 1

    Want to induce labor? Spicy foods or frakking.

  23. do the math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Too many humans. Not enough fossil fuel.

  24. In other news: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Scientist find a higher rate of homicide in areas of the country inhabited by blacks and advise everyone to run away and hide from blacks.

    This previous sentence was bullshit but is just as valid as the original article headline. . I do not hate blacks, and I do not hate fracking, but I do hate scientist and the media.

  25. Foals / Calves "Slipping" Near Frac Sites by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My family had 24 cows, that "slipped" (abnormal termination) a total of 11 calves in 2 years, and our neighbors who bred/trained horses lost HALF their foals on year right after an intense "remediation cycle" of frac'ing dozens of wells on their 2400 acres. No shit man, sulphur compounds do it. Look it up.

  26. Re:Working towards a fix... by tlambert · · Score: 1

    $$$$$$$$

    Yes, I realize that the entire paper was a coded message that read "give us a bigger budget, please, or we are going to prevent your business from growing at the rate that it is currently growing, with nothing more than our 'correlation is causation' argument".

    I guess I was too subtle in my jab at them to work smarter (i.e.: with a smaller budget), rather than harder (i.e.: with a huge budget).

  27. No credibility left at all by approachingZero+ · · Score: 1

    There is about the same chance that hydraulic fracturing leads to an increase in premature births as that hydraulic fracturing leads to the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. Unless these women are flagging down Haliburton trucks and swimming in the tanks this is utterly and totally preposterous.

    But that won't stop the lawyers from driving in their expensive automobiles to the courthouse to file the law suit and it won't stop the charlatan 'researches' from getting paid big money to testify as expert witnesses.

    Agenda science is doing far more harm than hydraulic fracturing, fiction like this 'study' should anger everyone who understands the lasting damage being done between the scientific community and the public.

    --
    'I don't know what it's called. I just know the sound it makes, when it takes a man's life.' ~ Four Leaf Tayback
  28. Re:Not idiots by almechist · · Score: 2, Funny

    If they didn't, they'd be complete idiots.

    Or, more likely, just very well paid. The entire field of environmental studies is sadly rife with rigged studies, often because the researchers or the people funding the research "know" ahead of time what the result SHOULD be, and the results will match that pre-ordained "understanding".

    Citation needed.

    oh fuck it, why do I bother... The entire field of right wing anti-environmentalism is rife with "pre-ordained understanding". (sigh)

  29. Pot Kettle Black by HairyNevus · · Score: 1

    I read the story in your link, and read the link that it provided to the M.D. who made that claim. Neither specified what they're including as a "medical study". Only peer-reviewed, or is a "study" published by a pharmaceutical company on their website being lumped into the mix? 'Cause I can see 50% of all medical studies being bullshit if you lower your definition of what constitutes a medical study to include the latter. I also found it interesting the articles couldn't pull up a few examples. I mean, if there's a 50/50 shot any random medical study will back up your claim, should be easy.

    --
    You were critically hit for no damage. The bruise will look nice, and maybe the scars will make good party talk.
    1. Re:Pot Kettle Black by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suggest your argument is with the Editor of The Lancet. Someone is in a much better position to offer an opinion on the matter and much more credible than HairyNevus, from the Internet.

  30. Re:model this with mice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Your hypothesis is "it is not the fracking itself, but the stress of knowing that you live near the fracking". How do you teach mice to be irrationally afraid of something?

    This reminds of the 1980's AIDS joke about testing on rats. First, they had to teach them anal sex.

  31. Re:Not idiots by KGIII · · Score: 2

    You can't win. They'll just stop responding. Then they'll find the next story and go on about it some more. Me? I don't have the expertise to opine so I read and try to find those who do. I welcome rational discourse and long for good fact and data-based debate simply so I can learn from it. With the highly emotionally charged subjects this doesn't seem like one of those times where I'll get what I want.

    So, back to poo flinging, screeching, monkey behavior for everyone!!!

    I'm not touching you!!!

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  32. I gugest that if you actually believe by publiclurker · · Score: 1

    what you are saying that you back it up with your name. Corporate whores and apologists are a dime a dozen. Even cheaper when they hide behind their title of coward.

  33. how many years do you think you can pull by publiclurker · · Score: 1

    the reasoned study bullshit before you have to admit the truth. And how many lives per dollar do you hope to earn for you and your friends?

  34. It's not the fracking chems by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's the increased alcohol in the lower income regions from the incremental fracking money. Much higher correlation numbers.

  35. And in a related story... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    it has been discovered that every human being who lived in NYC under mayor Bloomberg is either already dead or will die some day. Do you think THIS fact will get hyped by a Bloomberg entity? It's a correlation/causation thing too, and the horrible effect is more certain, so it's surely just as valid to use it as a solid argument against ever electing a guy named Bloomberg to run anything...

  36. Nationally pre term births are already 11% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/maternalinfanthealth/pretermbirth.htm

  37. Re:Not idiots by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Just one of many examples.

    You of course will not see it, because you cannot believe ill of those running your cult. But billions have been spent supporting climate research, data faked (which we know from leaked emails and more importantly source code). Sorry buddy, that's what you have signed up with and if you continue to associate with liars why should we all not assume you are one also?

    I'll let you have the last response but I have no intent of reading whatever regurgitated mind-slime talking points you've spoon been fed. Do some research and educate yourself, it's not too late.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  38. Re:Not idiots by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    Me? I don't have the expertise to opine

    I'm pretty sure that's the first time that sentence has ever appeared on the internet.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  39. Re:Not idiots by KGIII · · Score: 1

    Yet, it's oddly one of those statements too bizarre to not trust completely. ;-) I mean, sure, I probably have more knowledge than quite a few of the people who opined. I know enough to know that I don't know shit. There's a time and place to shut up and listen.

    As an aside, I figured that out (solidified it, really) when I owned and grew my company. At first I hired people and then still tried to do their work too. I'd hired programmers and I tried to keep my hand in. Then I realized, hey, I hired them because they're the best money can buy (well, my money) in the field and they're considered experts among their peers. What the hell am I doing? So, I stopped getting in the way and stopped helping unless asked. I was also eventually kicked out of my own server room. And my com room. I was master of the damned copy room, though!

    Really, I was just too busy with more important things and those guys were better than I was. Could I do the work? Sure. I mean, yeah, I was probably 'pretty good' at it. I can configure, secure, and maintain a server - a rack of blade servers even. I can provision desktops and roll them out and maintain them. I can program in a few different languages. What I can't do is do it as well or as efficiently as the people I paid to do the job. I managed because I had to. Otherwise I'd do.

    Anyhow, it worked out well. I've shared this before and this is almost verbatim... "Code comments go in the code, not on coffee soaked index cards scattered around your desk, asshole." (Or something like that.) Lesson learned.

    Ah well... I was fortunate and had great help. I was in the right place and time and in a position where I was able to take the risks associated with starting a business. I was still working on my degree when I got my first contract - I'd not yet done my defense. I sold the business about eight years ago. It was lucrative. I'm retired and I play around a lot today which is where all my silly stories come from - it's not like I don't have time. Today I have a real investment manager and I also play around on my own with the stock markets. I cheat and use sites like this, the comments in them, to decide what to buy. For instance, on a hunch I decided that buying EMC was a good risk. I bought a bunch. I've not yet checked the prices but I'm sure I did okay. The best part is that I have no idea what I'm doing.

    Anyhow, I've digressed enough at this point.

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  40. Re:correlation is not causation-may be other reaso by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    Yes, because self-evidently no mere scientist could possibly have thought of this until you, Mr AC, came to their aid.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it