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First Cancer Case Confirmed From Fukushima Cleanup (nhk.or.jp)
AmiMoJo writes: Japan's labor ministry has confirmed the first cancer case related to work at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Following on from reports of elevated levels of child cancer and 1,600 civilians deaths from the evacuation, this is the first time that one of the 44,000 people involved in the clean up operation has been diagnosed with cancer resulting directly from the accident. The worker was involved in recovery and cleanup efforts at the plant after it suffered a meltdown in March, 2011. He was in his late 30s at the time, and has been diagnosed with leukemia. The ministry has approved workers' compensation. Radiation exposure has been linked to the onset of leukemia.
According to here - http://ganjoho.jp/en/professio... the highest incidence rate recorded in Japan for Leukemia was 10.6 cases per 100,000 which occurred in men in 2010. Over the prior 25 years it ranged from 4.5 to the peak of 10.6 but interestingly all the lower counts are early in the records. So either instances of Leukemia have doubled or instances of diagnosis have double (or combination of course).
So realistically we would expect to see between 2 and around 5 cases of Leukemia in the given population. Once you get above 5-6 per year you would definitely argue that there had been an impact.