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Experts Chime In To Explain Fukushima Thryoid Cancer Concerns (cancernetwork.com)
An anonymous reader writes: Experts and the lead author of the Fukushima study findings explain what the data really tells us and the flaws in claims that there is a link between the disaster and cancer rates. From the article: "It is too soon to determine the influence of radiation exposure on thyroid cancer risk among children and adolescents who were exposed to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in Japan, according to the lead author of findings presented at the 15th International Thyroid Congress (ITC) and 85th Annual Meeting of the American Thyroid Association (ATA) this week in Lake Buena Vista, Florida."
When it was being claimed in the media that there had been NO effects of radiation on non-employees of the nuclear plant, we did not hear these disclaimers. But now that a study shows the possibility of thyroid cancer in children, the "experts" say it's too early to tell. So why did they not say that when the claim was being made that there was no effect?
They have not said there can be no effect. Theoretically there can be but statistically it is shown that there probably won't be. Due to uncertainly of impacts at these low levels (due to the fact that the impacts are so small they are hard to measure with any statistical significance) the conservative approach is assume there may be and do the testing/screening. One could make a case that it is unneeded, but due to the public fear mongers and to ease concerns, the testing makes sense. Also, it can provide us with more useful data on the topic.
So far, it appears they caught some cases of thyroid cancers that existed prior to the accident, and these cases were caught earlier than they normally would have. So those kids are lucky in that sense, as the likelihood of successful treatment for them is now higher.
The LINEAR part is wrong because intracellular coping mechanisms(DNA repair, mopping up reactive oxygen species(which is one of the damage modes of ionizing radiation)) have a range in which they function optimally. Asssuming a fully linear relationship there could no repair or maintenance done at all which is a ridiculous suggestion.
The NO THRESHOLD part doesn't hold up either as there's no detectable cancer rate curve among radiation worker that correlates to their doses inside the allowed intervals.
If we compare a radiation worker that only does administrative work and accumulates 1mSv to one that works in a hotlab and accumulates 16mSv we should see a 16 times increase in radiation related cancer according to the LNT, but that's not what we see in the real world.