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Landfall Nears For Strongest Hurricane In Recorded History (cnn.com)
An anonymous reader writes: Patricia — the strongest hurricane ever recorded — barreled closer and closer Friday to Mexico's Pacific coast, where residents have been told to brace for its 200-mph sustained winds and torrential rains. The early Friday central pressure recording of 880 millibars (the barometric pressure equivalent is 25.98 inches) "is the lowest for any tropical cyclone globally for over 30 years," according to the Met Office, Britain's weather service. One other thing alarming about Patricia is its rapid rise in intensity. It rated as a tropical storm early Thursday, but 24 hours later it had become a Category 5 hurricane. Among other effects, El Niño has contributed to ocean waters off Mexico being 2 to 3 degrees warmer than usual. "That warm water from El Niño probably just pushed this slightly over the edge to be the strongest storm on record," CNN's Myers said.
From the article
"Patricia the third strongest tropical cyclone in history (by wind)
Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.
Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.
Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines at peak strength.
Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.
Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.
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Its a big one but not the strongest on record. From the look of it, they tend to happen every few years so not even a weather anomaly.
Mind you, this third world country has infrastructure that year after year withstands hurricanes on both coasts, and they are seldom "catastrophic" (i.e. one strong event per decade). The area where it is hitting is moderately populated, and has available shelter places with great resistance that have been used before (such as the touristic compounds in Puerto Vallarta region).
Our country has hurricanes volcanos, sismicity, poverty and whatnot. But is much better prepared for a Katrina-style event than the USA.
It clearly said "strongest hurricane", which is true. Typhoons are on the other side of the Pacific ocean. Hurricanes are only in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.
"They happen every few years". 50 years is not what I would call "few". If so, I would only be a "few" years old.
-SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
Well... sort of. It's climate if any statistical property of hurricanes undergoes any statistical shift. Climate is the signal. Weather is the noise. It's like, say, driving home from work. Let's say it normally takes you an average of 20 minutes to drive home from work. Your numbers may go 17, 21, 14, 29, 19, 16, 26, 18, etc depending on local conditions... but the average is 20. But when a statistically significant sampling of drives starts averaging out higher - say, 27, 20, 21, 34, 20, 26, 31, etc... the underlying baseline has changed. The noise still exists, but it's on top of a different signal.
In terms of hurricanes, a warming average climate does not inherently mean "more hurricanes". Hurricanes from due to a complicated series of circumstances - some of which we understand well (like sea surface temperatures), some which we don't (like African dust). There's not only sea surface temperatures but the depths to which it exends, wind shear, dry air, and literally dozens of other factors. Not all of the changes that are associated with a warming planet encourage hurricanes - some discourage them. And the impacts can vary from one hurricane basin to another.
The North Atlantic basin, which most Americans care most about, has two strongly opposing effects in a warming world: increasing ocean heat versus increasing wind shear. Wind shear is death to hurricanes. The airflow patterns that fuel a hurricane require that the core be vertically aligned, so when you shear it horizontally, it fails to be able to power itself. Larger hurricanes can somewhat protect themselves against it, at the cost of declining intensity, but smaller storms get torn to shreds. It combines with dry air to worsen its effect, funneling the dry air into the core (dry air = subsidence = shutting off upflow-driven storms like hurricanes).
How these two factors ultimately play out is very difficult to predict, and particularly in the North Atlantic. The number of hurricanes per year in the North Atlantic Basin ranges from zero to dozens. And where they impact varies widely as well - the US can get nailed many times by powerful storms, or they can get hit by nothing at all. The general expectation is "mixed": that the increasing wind shear may reduce the total number of storms and will almost certainly rip apart more "vulnerable" storms - but that when conditions are right (as wind shear is constantly varying, and there are always times and places that there is little to none), storms will appear faster, grow faster, and reach higher top speeds.
That said, again, hurricanes are very complicated systems to model and predict, so it's hard to make predictions on this front with too much confidence.
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