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NASA's Bolden Claims NASA Is 'Doomed' Unless It Stays the Course To Mars (spacenews.com)

MarkWhittington writes: According to a story in Space News, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden made a speech at the Center for American Progress in which he declared that if the next president deviated from the Journey to Mars program, the space agency would be "doomed." The point he was making, that programs of that nature, have to have consistent support over several presidencies and congresses, was a valid one. The point was equally valid in 2010 when President Obama abruptly and without warning canceled the Constellation space exploration program. Bolden, however, had a ready answer for that, which may not be convincing on close examination.

16 of 162 comments (clear)

  1. enough of Mars by k6mfw · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Whenever I hear/read "Case For Mars" I'm thinking here we go again... I'm thinking NASA is doomed to keep a single course to Mars (there's other stuff ya know). Matula posted this on NASAwatch:

    I blame most of the destination argument on the creation of the Mars underground in the 1980's. Prior to that NASA was focused on using the Shuttle for industrialization in LEO with projects like demonstrating the repair and return of satellites, building structural items in orbit, tethers, etc., all logical starting points for building a Cislunar industrial capability that would have given us the Solar System. NASA didn't even have plans to send robots to Mars. By advocating that we needed to skip the Moon and go rushing off to Mars they started this entire useless destination debate that has paralyzed space policy ever since.

    Although their arguments made no rational or economic sense, falling back on outdated ideas like "manifest destiny" and painting Mars like a second Earth, they struck some cord among a very vocal hard core group that has shouted down any rational space strategy ever since. We see it now with Senators force feeding the SLS with money it doesn't need while starving commercial crew because the SLS would, in theory, be able to take astronauts to Mars. As a result the ISS is only one Soyuz failure away from being abandoned.

    We need to give Mars a rest and once again spend the limited budget on building capabilities in space, space tugs, orbital refueling, lunar LOX, that would serve for going to all the interesting destinations beyond Earth, not keep wasting money on plans to go to a single one that is already well mapped and explored.

    end quote

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    mfwright@batnet.com
    1. Re:enough of Mars by tnk1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      We'll be ready when we are ready. You don't get a program like a Mars landing off the ground by continuously postponing it until we're "ready", because the technology to get to Mars is pretty specific. You keep sending robot probes and the result is the best darn robot probes that money can buy, you build a moonbase, and you've got a good moonbase. You're still not solving the hardest problems of a Mars shot... which is a craft able to keep people alive for about a year in deep space to get to Mars and then land and do something on a planet with a substantially higher gravity than the Moon. And then back again.

      No doubt, if we wait, some things will get easier, but I don't think anything gets substantially easier about that process until we focus on it.

      The moon is fine, but we've solved the problem of getting to the moon forty years ago.

      Sure, if you want to set up a moonbase as a stepping stone to Mars, that makes some sense, but the moon is very close to Earth, compared to Mars. And if a moonbase is the best way to do that, then it will become evident in a Mars program study. I sincerely doubt that people making money on the manned space program actually care if they make the money on Mars or the Moon. They'll take our money either way.

    2. Re:enough of Mars by spauldo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      While I agree Mars was probably a bad choice, changing course again will just make things worse. That's the main problem; we don't have the political will to stick with one strategy and see it through.

      We'll get good science and engineering out of the Mars missions, and hopefully open some opportunities for the private sector in space as well. I was hoping we'd get a moon base first, but I'd rather we stick with a plan and actually accomplish it than switch back and forth and accomplish nothing.

      --
      Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach either, do tech support.
    3. Re:enough of Mars by amicusNYCL · · Score: 4, Informative

      Calling Mars "well-mapped and explored" is a bit of an overreach. The bottom of our oceans isn't even well-mapped and explored, much less another planet that no one has stepped on and has only a handful of decent rovers. At 300 feet per hour, Curiosity is in no danger of running out of places to explore.

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      "Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
    4. Re:enough of Mars by Rei · · Score: 3, Informative

      Oh god, don't get me started on SLS. Have you seen the launch cost estimates? They're currently looking at $14k/kg to LEO not counting development costs, and assuming that you can manage to load the thing fully. Counting development, that depends on how many launches they make before they inevitably decide to cancel the way-too-expensive rocket. Most estimates I've seen so far put the development-included per-launch figure in the very rough ballpark of $40k/kg.

      For people who know space, you already know that an "average" launch cost is $10k/kg to LEO. Russian and Chinese costs are usually around $7k/kg, sometimes cheaper. Falcon 9 is... if I recall correctly, about $5k/kg right now, maybe less. A rocket that costs $14k/kg, and that you have to lift something very heavy with every time, a billion dollars every time you fire the thing off... they might as well just paint the words "CANCEL ME" on the side.

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      "Oh, goodness. Look at my wrist, I have to go." "But what about your clothes?" "I don't love these."
    5. Re:enough of Mars by NostalgiaForInfinity · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I blame most of the destination argument on the creation of the Mars underground in the 1980's. Prior to that NASA was focused on using the Shuttle for industrialization in LEO with projects like demonstrating the repair and return of satellites, building structural items in orbit, tethers, etc.

      And the shuttle, an overpriced and poor design, shows that they weren't up to the task.

      We need to give Mars a rest and once again spend the limited budget on building capabilities in space, space tugs, orbital refueling, lunar LOX, that would serve for going to all the interesting destinations beyond Earth, not keep wasting money on plans to go to a single one that is already well mapped and explored.

      I think NASA should focus on science earth observation and interplanetary probes. Leave the industrial stuff to industry.

  2. Popular support by CanEHdian · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Back in the time of the Apollo program, NASA was very popular. Today the Moon is been there, done that. Mars rovers? We currently have G3 roving around. G4 isn't going to generate tons of excitement. But going to Mars? To put, since it's NASA, good ol' American Boots on the soil of another planet? To be the first to have Real American Heroes planting the Stars and Stripes on the Red Planet broadcast "live" to a worldwide TV and streaming audience? That's going to generate a hype we haven't seen since, indeed, Apollo. Without sending Americans to Mars, NASA will only be of significance to the science community, with the associated budgets appropriate for that role.

    What NASA can learn from the Mars One project is their idea to use tv coverage for funding. Set up a consortium of broadcast partners from around the world and negotiate. No need to give everything away for free.

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    When the copyright term is "forever minus a day", live every day like it's the last.
  3. Re:Space exploration takes time by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 4, Informative

    In Canada we just had nine years of anti-science, anti-environment, racist, and slash taxes for well off families. No other party is like them and the last few years they were showing their true colours. It's going to take a long time for us to recover from them. For example in our census we had a short form and a long form. Both were mandatory. The short form was sent out to the majority of households while the long form went out to the rest. The Conservatives eliminated the long form and added an optional extra bit. We had some of the best census data in the world and even if we go back to using a long form in the next census that data won't be as useful as it could have been because we're missing that year's data.

    I think it seems amplified in the US because the space program is such a high profile item. In Canada our high profile issue is how to equip the military but that wouldn't make headlines in any other country.

  4. Re:Space exploration takes time by roc97007 · · Score: 4, Funny

    In Canada our high profile issue is how to equip the military but that wouldn't make headlines in any other country.

    Depends on how many F35s you buy from us.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  5. Re:Its a great pity.. by Tablizer · · Score: 3, Informative

    In the early 1960's the USA had the fear of Soviet missiles to motivate it. We don't currently have anything equivalent. Maybe if the Chinese send a person to the moon we'll finally get worried enough to devote the resources.

    The closest thing to the "Sputnik scare" of late is 9/11 (twice), which basically drove us to invade random countries, snoop on ourselves, and hold endless email hearings. We landed on our own moons this time.

  6. Re:Marketing Opportunity by roc97007 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Time for NASA to start a line of "Mars or Bust!" merchandises; anytime a federally funded agency work to pay its own way is a Good Thing (tm) I am sure the both houses of current congress agrees...

    I personally think that's why the original moon shot succeeded -- it captured the imagination of the American people. It was something we wanted to see happen. Without that, you don't have much.

    I suspect that part of "NASA is doomed" is that without clear, consistent goals, NASA just seems like a money pit. Funding Constellation would arguably have put NASA more in the "moon shot" category. Defunding it after the money already spent, pushed NASA more to the "money pit" side.

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    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  7. Not about Mars by Livius · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Bolden has a point that NASA needs a high-profile, long-term goal.

    Whether Mars is the best option for that goal (probably not) is a completely different issue.

  8. Private Companies vs. NASA by IceAgeComing · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Unlike NASA's mission to the moon, there are non-government entities that are now funding missions to Mars.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    http://www.space.com/28215-elo...

    NASA could focus on actual Science, like sending unmanned missions into space and collecting data, as opposed to manned missions. This seems like a much more cost-benefit way to spend taxpayer money. Let the private companies fund the projects with questionable value.

    1. Re:Private Companies vs. NASA by Gavagai80 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Mars One is obviously not legitimate, and SpaceX is not currently funding missions to Mars just thinking about the future.

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  9. True, Mars not in the priority list by raymorris · · Score: 3, Informative

    That's certainly true. Mars isn't in the top three priorities for NASA under the current administration. Mr. Bolden (the head of NASA), said these are the three things Obama asked him to do with NASA:

    When I became the Nasa administrator, he [Obama] charged me with three things.
    One, he wanted me to help reinspire children to want to get into science and math;
    he wanted me to expand our international relationships;
    and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good

  10. Thanks, Obama! (No, I'm being serious.) by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 4, Informative

    The point was equally valid in 2010 when President Obama abruptly and without warning canceled the Constellation space exploration program.

    "Without warning"? You mean that the Augustine commission was secret? Nobody saw it coming that a lousy program that had delivered too little by that time for too much money got scrapped?

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    Ezekiel 23:20