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Gambling Could Reveal Which Scientific Studies Are Worth Their Salt (sciencemag.org)

Posted by samzenpus on from the improving-the-odds dept.

sciencehabit writes with this interesting story about using prediction markets to weed out false positives in scientific experiments. From the article: "Gambling is frowned upon in many circles. But what if the gamblers are researchers betting on how each other's experiments will turn out, and the results are used to improve science itself? A group of psychologists has found that their collective gambling—with real money—predicted the outcome of attempts at replicating experimental results better than their own expert guesses. They propose that this type of gambling setup, known as a prediction market, could become part of how science gets done."

2 of 63 comments (clear)

  1. Re:the interesting part by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Not really. Gambling is seldom limited by if the gamblers can afford it or not.
    The big difference is that usually when it comes to making predictions people have a situation where they one outcome is beneficial for them even if it was just a case of "It would be nice if this was the case."
    There simply is nothing to gain from having a correct prediction and nothing to lose from having a wrong prediction so people pick the outcome based on what they would like to happen.
    Bringing in money, real or fake, is sufficient for people to override this mental block and go with what they actually think, not what they want to think.

  2. It does no such thing... by the_skywise · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's just enforcing consensus - It doesn't mean the science will be right or wrong anymore than which horse wins the race.

    Yeah, the odds increase the probability of a success but that's not a guarantee.

    Geez, is this what's become of "science" in the world today?!