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Bank of England's Andy Haldane Warns Smart Machines Could Take 15M UK Jobs (robotenomics.com)
New submitter Colin Robotenomics writes In an important new paper based on a speech at the trade union congress in London, Andy Haldane Chief Economist at the Bank of England and Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics has examined the history of technological unemployment and has given a thorough review of the literature and implications for public policy. The media will likely focus on the number of jobs that can be displaced and not necessarily Haldane's points on new jobs being created – both of which are highly important as is 'skilling-up'. His report reads in part: "...Taking the probabilities of automation, and multiplying them by the numbers employed, gives a broad brush estimate of the number of jobs potentially automatable. For the UK, that would suggest up to 15 million jobs could be at risk of automation. In the US, the corresponding figure would be 80 million jobs."
The example I keep seeing used is self-driving vehicles, particularly trucks.
They've already proved themselves in mining contexts - they use less fuel, wear their tyres less, less maintenance, downtime, and of course, no wages to be paid.
People are falling over themselves to get them approved for road use. Truck driver is 3.5M jobs in the USA. There are about 285,000 HGV drivers in the UK.
The trend is already that middle class jobs are being eroded and replaced with low waged work. Truck driver is unglamorous but they probably count as middle class guys with the wages they get.
What jobs are we going to find for truck drivers? They're not all going to train up to be robot-truck mechanics (as above, robot trucks are pretty much existing trucks with a few extra sensors and something wired to the power steering etc - and require less maintenance). You'll have all those middle-class people with a lower disposable income, so the market for services and consumer goods will shrink, so what industry will expand or arise to employ them?
Tech changes that increase production, expand wealth and (eventually) the job market. Spinning Jenny and her ilk turned cotton shirts from a luxury into a mass-market commodity.
Tech changes that just do existing work with less human labour do not expand wealth. The automated trucks drivers, administrative assistants, warehouse pickers, burger flippers, etc, etc, that are coming down the pipe do not increase demand - if anything, they decrease it, by reducing the amount of wages entering the economy.
to pay for basic income, everyone has to earn less
I don't think that's accurate. Productivity since the 70s has doubled, but real-terms wages have been stagnant. In the last 3 decades, the top 0.1% of Americans have doubled their wealth. It's obvious that improved technology can maintain the same lifestyle for the same number of people but with the labour of fewer people - the maintenance of employment levels has mostly been due to the improvement of that basic lifestyle (smartphones, better medical technology, etc) providing jobs for displaced farm workers etc. The system we have encourages spending the extra productivity of technology and economic growth on an expanded lifestyle, but it could be diverted instead to providing a basic lifestyle without requiring extra labour.
I like the idea of everyone earning a set amount and then working for more, but then the system breaks down, because nobody wants to contribute back.
In the trials of Basic Income that have been done so far, the total amount of work drops about 4%, mostly accounted for by teenage students studying instead of working to support their family, and mothers looking after their kids. The local economy grows.
The truth is that the majority of people want to keep their own success
Is it entirely their own?
"forget all that rhetoric about how America is great because of people like you and me and Steve Jobs. You know the truth even if you won’t admit it: If any of us had been born in Somalia or the Congo, all we’d be is some guy standing barefoot next to a dirt road selling fruit"
- Nick Hanauer (self-described billionaire plutocrat)
The wealth that a few accumulate is based on the labour, and custom, of the many. It depends on a working society. If your society collapses because people can't afford to eat, then you're just a guy with a nice house fending off the starving hordes with a shotgun. And your delivery of fresh organic produce isn't coming this week.
Basic Income isn't about redistributing wealth evenly ; it's about making sure that no-one starves, and yes, it's also about making sure that the businesses of today have customers tomorrow. The Citigroup Plutonomy Report aside, not everyone can make a living making gold-plated iPhones and giant yachts.