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An Algorithm To Facilitate Uber-Style Dynamic Phone Tariffs (thestack.com)

An anonymous reader writes: A new paper proposes an algorithm to help network providers furnish 'surge' pricing for mobile data and other network communications, citing a 50% shortfall between demand and capacity over the next five years as an indicator that consumers may have to be shepherded out of the congested times and areas in order for normal service to continue to be maintained. Just don't tell any of the people in charge of airport wireless networks.

61 of 75 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Time-based phone rates? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

    Everything that is old is new again.

    Except these new rates would not be time-based, but congestion based.

  2. Re:Time-based phone rates? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

    Everything that is old is new again.

    Except these new rates would not be time-based, but congestion based.

    And you'll be able to pay extra for "premium service/"

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  3. Re:Time-based phone rates? by Nutria · · Score: 1

    I bet that if you graphed out the busiest times for cell phone networks, they'd match pretty close to AT&T's old time-based schedule?

    Why? Because AT&T wasn't stupid, and didn't just pull shit like this out of their arses.

    --
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  4. Disaster "surges" by BenJeremy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Great, let's charge people 5000% of their rates when something terrible hits, like a terrorist attack or some sort of natural disaster, and penalize people for letting people know they are alright or trying to track down their loved ones to make sure they survived!

    1. Re:Disaster "surges" by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      It's either that, or get NO service during a disaster. Think very, very carefully before you decide which option is better.

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    2. Re:Disaster "surges" by pepty · · Score: 1

      It's either that, or get NO service during a disaster. Think very, very carefully before you decide which option is better.

      or just give emergency services first priority, text messaging 2nd, email 3rd, ...

    3. Re:Disaster "surges" by Dagger2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      In theory. In practice, the result is that the provider is strongly encouraged to under-provision their network so they can charge extreme rates for normal use, citing "high" utilization as an excuse. So you end up with a poor experience at all times, rather than just during disasters.

      It'd work well if we had some kind of requirement in place that mandated capacity upgrades such that the system only approaches max capacity less than x% of the time, where x is small. But that's not going to happen.

    4. Re:Disaster "surges" by subreality · · Score: 1

      Great, let's charge people 5000% of their rates when something terrible hits

      Yes, we should do exactly that: encourage people to send a quick "I'm OK" text or 30-second call, then get off the air so everyone else check in. If you want to yak, just wait an hour until the surge is over.

    5. Re:Disaster "surges" by urdak · · Score: 1

      In theory. In practice, the result is that the provider is strongly encouraged to under-provision their network so they can charge extreme rates for normal use, citing "high" utilization as an excuse.

      Exactly. Moreover, it becomes impossible to compare prices of two competing networks. You can't say "AT&T charges me 10 cents a minute, Spring charges me 15 cents a minute, so I'll chose AT&T" - instead, one company might nominally say their price is 10 cents a minute, but during 90% of the day, or in the area where you work, it will claim there is congestion so it will actually charge you 50 cents a minute.

    6. Re:Disaster "surges" by martas · · Score: 1

      Price gouging is already generally illegal. If you're worried about excessive disaster surges, talk to your local, state, or federal representatives to put caps, or lower existing ones, on the maximum amount you can be charged, or to put in place a policy of especially low caps in the case that a state of emergency is declared.

    7. Re:Disaster "surges" by martas · · Score: 1

      In practice, the result is that the provider is strongly encouraged to under-provision their network so they can charge extreme rates for normal use, citing "high" utilization as an excuse. So you end up with a poor experience at all times, rather than just during disasters.

      How is that any different from charging more for their service, which they are already free to do? It might give them a tiny sliver of a PR defense, but that won't stop people from switching providers. Phone service, unlike wired internet, is actually a competitive market.

    8. Re:Disaster "surges" by martas · · Score: 1

      That can be addressed by regulation requiring disclosure of high granularity usage and pricing data.

    9. Re:Disaster "surges" by Ichijo · · Score: 2

      In practice, the result is that the provider is strongly encouraged to under-provision their network so they can charge extreme rates for normal use, citing "high" utilization as an excuse.

      Is it still surge pricing if the surge price is charged all the time?

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    10. Re:Disaster "surges" by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      It's either that, or get NO service during a disaster.

      Why?

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    11. Re:Disaster "surges" by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Cormanust!!!!

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  5. It's a Duopoly by ElitistWhiner · · Score: 2

    It's called herding. Like cattle to slaughter. When you own the processing plant and control the market price - it's a duopoly data-feedloting.

  6. Amazon Model by Luthair · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Maybe it would be better if they followed the Amazon model where they built the infrastructure to support the surges and turned the excess into a viable business instead of mimicking a glorified bandit taxi dispatcher that has never been profitable.

    1. Re:Amazon Model by phizi0n · · Score: 1

      Building a few huge data centers to handle lots of customers that each have small surges (relative to your capacity) at different times than each other is a far easier task than deploying a national network that can have huge surges relative to your capacity at any given location. Even if they litter the streets with micro/fempto cells on every block, it still would not be enough to handle large temporary gatherings of people such as: conventions, block parties, marathons, protests, etc. Cell networks also face lots of push-back from every community (some people don't want cell towers ruining their view, some are afraid of the radiation, some just want something to protest) which can prevent them from covering areas as well as they'd like to.

    2. Re:Amazon Model by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 1

      First, there's no shortage of interurban data links for these companies to use if they're willing to. A shortage of infrastructure is a myth.

      Second, the customers will indeed abscond, but not to conventional telephone companies.

      Anyone who is considering how to jack up voice call pricing is moving around deck chairs on the Titanic.

  7. OR.... by sycodon · · Score: 1

    ...The can just fucking upgrade their networks.

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    1. Re:OR.... by Nutria · · Score: 1

      That's not the way to optimize profits, is it??

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  8. Doesn't anyone remember Enron and Californias elec by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Doesn't anyone remember Enron and California's electricity demand pricing games that ripped off consumers for millions by manipulating the demand metrics?
    Demand based pricing is just asking for a scam. Also who's bright idea was it to bring all the uncertainty of a dodgy stock market into the consumer space?
     
    As for Uber, it's not just demand pricing but the age old nastiness of piecework with a deliberate lie of "ride sharing" on top. If the car wasn't going that way whether the customer was there or not then it is not "ride sharing". Uber is just the very old and nasty way to run taxis with a new dispatch system and demand based price gouging on top - it's normalizing the process of bribing a taxi driver to let you jump the queue at best.

  9. Reward networks for not upgrading by nitehawk214 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They get paid more the worse their network is. Yeah, great idea, I am sure customers will love this.

    --
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    1. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      They get paid more the worse their network is.

      More per customer, yes. But when you're bleeding customers because you haven't invested in the network in order to keep prices low, that's little consolation.

      So I wouldn't worry. The problem will solve itself, if we allow it to.

      --
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    2. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by mwvdlee · · Score: 1

      Yey perfectly idealized capitalism!
      The customers will just go to a competitor who did invest in their network.
      Except that those competitor won't exist because it's far more profitable for all of them to stick together in not upgrading.

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    3. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      Well, that's not the fault of surge pricing.

      Surge pricing is how eBay works, and it has had great results in San Francisco, so we know from experience that surge pricing is a good thing, as long as the price is set at market equilibrium. The real problem with dynamic phone tariffs, if any, lies elsewhere.

      --
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    4. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      Ebay...isn't surge pricing in any stretch of the imagination.

      What definition of "surge pricing" are you using that excludes eBay? Please paste the link, because I think you're making stuff up.

      One definition of surge pricing is that it "occurs when a company raises the price of its offering if there is an increase in demand." And that's exactly how an auction works: the price rises until supply and demand are in equilibrium.

      So please provide a link for a definition that excludes eBay, if you can.

      Go look at teh stories about uber and surge pricing. You'll see a lot of time when it had to be turned off because of bad PR.

      That's a good example of the "bandwagon fallacy." You're arguing that because people are opposed to something, it must be bad. But because argument from fallacy is also a fallacy, we'll have to agree to disagree on this point.

      On the subject of bad PR, here is an interesting article about how a city shot themselves in the foot after a hurricane because they were offended by the high price of resupplying ice to the residents.

      The problem with dynamic phone tariffs is that it incentives companies to never upgrade their infrastructure.

      Could you elaborate on why high surge prices won't encourage other companies to start providing service? Because that doesn't make any kind of sense to me.

      --
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    5. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by martas · · Score: 1

      Wait, if all carriers are under capacity, doesn't that actually support the point made by the person you're calling a dumbass?

    6. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 1

      No definition of "surge pricing" could include eBay because it's an auction with multiple independent bidders. Uber, on the other hand, is one bidder with multiple operators who work through its pricing structure. Experienced Uber operators actually avoid areas with high dynamic pricing because there's too much traffic around them. It's more profitable to do three less expensive rides than one expensive one.

      Uber dynamic pricing fails the riders, and fails the operators. Uber still makes its money, they don't particularly care that they aren't serving either bloc efficiently.

    7. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      So when the price rises in response to demand, it's surge pricing if the seller chose the new price but it isn't surge pricing if the buyers chose it through a bidding process? I see where you're coming from, but the distinction seems frivolous when the end result is the same.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    8. Re:Reward networks for not upgrading by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 1

      What happens on eBay is just a market. It's fundamental that a properly working market works to determine the optimum price for whatever is being sold. A properly working market would have multiple sellers and multiple buyers, all with somewhat differing circumstances. Improperly working markets are dominated by a single vendor, etc. No market works perfectly, there are always factors that cause markets to be less efficient than they should be.

      Demand pricing is something one vendor does deliberately and with calculation. In contrast, the market pricing is arrived at as the aggregate of the behavior of many people. The market's actually broken if the calculation of one person can influence it disproportionately.

  10. How About No? by sethstorm · · Score: 1

    The practices of nudging and variable rates need to DIAF and stay dead.

    Fixed rates have served quite well.

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  11. What will the market bear? by ljhiller · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Last year Uber quadrupled their prices for people trying to leave downtown Sydney during a hostage standoff. Uber style phone tariffs means that if terrorists kill 100-1000 people in a town, it will cost $50 for people to communicate their survival to concerned family members, because after all, that's what people will pay, right? So it's all good.

    1. Re:What will the market bear? by phizi0n · · Score: 2

      At face value quadrupled prices seems bad but it incentivized drivers to pick up people, putting their own lives at risk in the process, rather than just leaving everyone stranded there. It may have even enticed some drivers to head towards the danger rather than staying comfortably away. Depending on local laws they sometimes have to cap the surge pricing in disaster/emergency situations so if you don't like the idea inflated prices during these events then perhaps you should try to get your laws changed.

      IMO surge pricing for cell networks would be fine as long as there were a small buffer before the surge pricing kicked in and that it notify you beforehand. Say it's a 1MB grace allotment, you could upload one picture, talk for a couple mins, or send hundreds of text messages. That last option is key, if you really need to communicate information then texting is the most efficient way to do it.

    2. Re:What will the market bear? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Or maybe lovesick teenagers will get off the phone so that important calls and messages will actually get through

      Really?
      Those ones that run up bills in the hundreds at normal rates?

  12. Four, not two by tepples · · Score: 1

    In this analogy, there are four competing processing plants (VZW, Sprint, AT&T, T-Mobile) that determine the wholesale price, and there are plenty of MVNOs that determine the retail price.

  13. sort of makes sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The whole point of "surge" pricing is to ensure that people that *really need* something can still get it (albeit at vastly increased cost) while the people who don't really need it decide it's too expensive. Unfortunately the assumption is that there is a direct relationship between how much someone wants something vs how much they are willing to pay. This is not actually the case...people who have more money can afford to pay more in absolute terms without having it impact their lives as much.

    So hypothetically, in an emergency if cell time went to $10/minute you and I might decide to make our calls short, but Bill Gates could talk 24/7 and not care about the price.

    1. Re:sort of makes sense by gnupun · · Score: 1

      The whole point of "surge" pricing is to ensure that people that *really need* something can still get it

      Yeah, no. The purpose of surge pricing is to gouge customers who want the service desperately (and are therefore willing to pay more). Since uber is not like a traditional cab company with a fixed number of drivers, they can easily increase supply of drivers during high demand times to ensure proper supply. But they don't do that.

      Go google what experienced uber drivers do when surge pricing hits an area... they leave and find a another one without surge. That's because, according to them, they get fewer fares during surge.

    2. Re:sort of makes sense by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

      Since uber is not like a traditional cab company with a fixed number of drivers, they can easily increase supply of drivers during high demand times to ensure proper supply.

      Okay, I'll bite. HOW can Uber "easily increase supply of drivers during high demand"?

      I'm going to have to assume you think that Uber has the legal authority to require, for instance, that I (or you, for that matter) work for them during high demand times, whether you want to or not. Alas, that's not the case. Uber can't require me to work for them at all, much less during high demand times.

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    3. Re:sort of makes sense by gnupun · · Score: 1

      Okay, I'll bite. HOW can Uber "easily increase supply of drivers during high demand"?

      One way would be to offer a bonus or reduce their cut of the fare from 25% to 20 or 15% during high demand times. Since more people are traveling during high demand times, the cost of travel (i.e. "waiting for passenger" time + traveling cost between two fares) is low. While their per passenger profit is reduced, they make it up in volume.

      I'm going to have to assume you think that Uber has the legal authority to require, for instance, that I (or you, for that matter) work for them during high demand times, whether you want to or not.

      I'm pretty sure Uber has some say in whether a driver gets a fare or not. It would be easy to give drivers "licenses" that only work within the high demand times. This way, if the driver wants to make money, he can only make it driving 7 am to 10 am. An evening class driver would only be able to get fares from 4pm to 6pm and so on.

      This is all common sense, but for a company that until recently refused to acknowledge it was a taxi company, surge pricing is just a common business trick to pocket huge profits by gouging desperate customers.

    4. Re:sort of makes sense by martas · · Score: 1

      The purpose of surge pricing is to gouge customers who want the service desperately

      It's funny how you can say literally the same idea as the person you responded to, but make it sound bad by using negative words like "gouge" and "desperately". Without any sort of explanation as to why his characterization is invalid.

    5. Re:sort of makes sense by gnupun · · Score: 1

      Without any sort of explanation as to why his characterization is invalid.

      I explained it right after I made the statement.

      There's a bill to ban surge pricing in New York.

      "The ride-sharing concept is great; who wouldn't want an alternative like this?" Williams asked. "Thereâ(TM)s great benefit to this, especially in metropolitan areas, but nobody wants to be gouged eight or 10 times the normal fare."

      You still want to argue it's not gouging?

      This is what the parent post said:

      The whole point of "surge" pricing is to ensure that people that *really need* something can still get it

      Wrong. The whole point of surge pricing is to only offer taxis to those who can afford it, screw the non-rich folks. That's gouging.

    6. Re:sort of makes sense by martas · · Score: 1
      Yes, and it's your choice to interpret surge pricing as necessarily inevitably excessive. You haven't explained why there can be no instance of non-predatory surge pricing.

      Wrong. The whole point of surge pricing is to only offer taxis to those who can afford it, screw the non-rich folks. That's gouging.

      But for some reason, you haven't broken into an art gallery and stolen a Picasso to give it to some of those non-rich folks. And before you tell me that a taxi is different because it's a basic necessity, 1) there is already a federal almost-ban on surge pricing during disaster events, 2) Uber isn't a monopoly, 3) there is a difference between limited surge pricing and absolutely no surge pricing, which you have failed to address, 4) did I mention Uber isn't monopoly, which is typically a pretty damn important component of price gauging?

      And look, I can link to articles too. Here's one:

      http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ub...

      Hey, look at that, even the NYC council isn't considering completely banning surge pricing, only limiting it:

      http://dailysignal.com/2015/09...

      And even that seems to be dead in the water:

      http://legistar.council.nyc.go...

  14. Re: Time-based phone rates? by markus · · Score: 1

    Actually, if you're on T-Mobile USA, then all calls from, to, and within France are currently free. I am really happy to see big business put compassion before profit.

  15. Not legal by tompaulco · · Score: 1

    The FCC regulates phone call pricing. Not completely, but to an extent where an Uber-style congestion based pricing would be a non-starter. Just like local government taxi regulations regulate taxi rates making Uber's congestion based pricing illegal.

    --
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  16. Re:Time-based phone rates? by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    rounded up to the next min. So that I'm safe call just cost you $400 and you don't pay you can be flagged.

  17. O'Hare wifi by sims+2 · · Score: 1

    last time I was at O'Hare the wifi at the airport was a lot better than gogo in flight wifi.

    Although that was a few years back.

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  18. Re: Time-based phone rates? by Stewie241 · · Score: 1

    Who says compassion isn't profitable?

  19. Re:Time-based phone rates? by Zero__Kelvin · · Score: 2

    "I bet that if you graphed out the busiest times for cell phone networks, they'd match pretty close to AT&T's old time-based schedule?

    Why? Because AT&T wasn't stupid, and didn't just pull shit like this out of their arses."

    When rates varied at different times of the day teenagers didn't have cell phones. Things have changed drastically since those days. In fact, they often had very restricted access to the house phone since many people didn't have call waiting and when one was on the phone nobody could call in to the house.

    --
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  20. will not work by enrevanche · · Score: 2

    This would be a nightmare for users. When finding a ride using Uber, it is easy to decide if you accept the price. With phone/data surge pricing you will have to constantly check the rate every time you use the phone for something. The first provider that tries this will no longer have any capacity issues, not because the algorithm solves the problem directly, but because there will be a mass exodus of customers.

    1. Re:will not work by swillden · · Score: 1

      This would be a nightmare for users. When finding a ride using Uber, it is easy to decide if you accept the price. With phone/data surge pricing you will have to constantly check the rate every time you use the phone for something.

      The phone could notify you when surge pricing is in effect. A simple icon in the status bar at the top would work well. Pull your phone out, notice that data currently costs 3X what it normally does, then decide you'll send a text tweet about your meal, and send the video later after surge pricing ends. The services that consume the most bandwidth are, by and large, the least critical, and a simple indicator would make it easy to decide to avoid heavy bandwidth usage during peak usage times. Services on your phone could automatically adjust their bandwidth consumption as well, similar to the way many defer heavy operations until Wifi is available, but more nuanced.

      Although we'd all rather just have totally unlimited data and never have to think about it, assuming a reasonably efficient market[*] surge data pricing would drive total costs down. Cost-conscious consumers in particular would be better off, because bandwidth during off-peak times would likely end up being practically free, since nearly all of the bandwidth cost is involved in building out capacity for peak times.

      [*] Note that "an efficient market" is not what we have in the US, with respect to mobile data. Carriers have managed, through various mechanisms, to introduce very high barriers to switching, allowing them to avoid competing too directly.

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    2. Re:will not work by martas · · Score: 1

      Well, I think there would have to be some minimal temporal granularity to it, so the price isn't changing by the second. Also, I think they should be required to get explicit consent before applying the surge price, like a popup saying "surge pricing in effect for the next hour, accept or limit to 3G speeds?"

  21. Common Carrier by bl968 · · Score: 1

    Any network implementing this can say goodbye to Common Carrier status and would likely lose all Universal Service Funds.

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  22. A shortfall??? by r-diddly · · Score: 1

    "...citing a 50% shortfall between demand and capacity over the next five years..."

    Assuming that even happens, that will more properly be known as an "unexploited opportunity," which in capitalism is like a vacuum, which is that thing nature abhors. And considering the fact that the costs of running a network of a given size, don't increase at all during demand peaks, I think someone who knows how to get the job done for a reasonable fixed price will step in and get it done. Might even snatch the market out from under any old congestion-pricing moo-cows who mistakenly think they're indispensable.

  23. Re:Time-based phone rates? by TWX · · Score: 1

    Age wasn't relevant. Time-based rates were based on usage model on the network. Calling it a congestion charge may have confused consumers, so they called it a time-based rate and simply defined tiering based on previous usage patterns, and after behaviors changed, would modify those over time to correspond better with usage models.

    It's the exact same thing that power companies do with power usage, if one is on a time-of-use plan then the kW/h price is higher in the first couple of hours after people get off work because on arriving home, that's the time when they're more likely to turn on appliances or electrical devices, and dragging that out will reduce the demand at any given point to prevent overloading the grid.

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  24. Encouraging lazy providers by Chas · · Score: 1

    Basically all this does is provide further incentive to build sub-spec networks and oversubscribe the fuck out of them so that companies can eake every last cent out of the customer that's possible to get, while providing shit service.

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  25. No ... No it isn't by gstoddart · · Score: 1

    citing a 50% shortfall between demand and capacity over the next five years as an indicator that consumers may have to be shepherded out of the congested times and areas in order for normal service to continue to be maintained

    No, it means the greedy bastards who run the telcos need to invest in their damned infrastructure.

    Consumers do NOT need to be fucking shepherded into making calls at 10pm, the people who keep gouging us for telecommunications need to actually spend some of the massive amounts they charge on maintaining their infrastructure instead of pretending they can keep doing nothing and collect the same money.

    This is not a consumer scheduling problem, this is a failure to spend the money to maintain their infrastructure.

    The problem is for years they've say back, collected the money, and pretended like continuing to do nothing wouldn't have long term implications.

    Lazy, cheap and stupid is not a consumer scheduling problem. It's corporations failing to invest in their own business so they can artificially bump up profits.

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  26. Oh great by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 1

    Great, a new way to justify charging more for a service just when it's needed the most.

    Will the wonders of marketing never cease??

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  27. The word "publishedtariff" means a published price by gavron · · Score: 1

    As used by the Corporation Commissions of the various US states and the FCC, telecommunication carriers *must* publish a tariff, generally it must be approved [or if not specifically then it must be in line with previously approved guidelines], and only then charge consumers what it says.

    Using the "uber model" of dynamic pricing -- whether a good idea or not -- is contrary to current US law and FCC regulations.
    Really.

    That brings up two questions:
    1. SHOULD it happen?
    2. What would be the result?

    I'll get to #1 in a sec. first, what would be the result: In a free market, letting supply and demand control price and quantity makes sense. However, absent a notification method to let people know when they pick up the handset HOW MUCH THE CALL WILL COST people will be reluctant to make that call. Regulations forbid charging a number without informing people. If you let people know 'the cost is high" most of them will wait it out. Supply will stabilize but demand will reduce. Overall use will reduce. "Surge" pricing will lead to less demand, less calls, and lower overall product sold.

    Given that, SHOULD it happen? No. A reasonably stable commodity price is what leads to consumer confidence to buy, buy now, buy later, and keep on buying. A fluid price leads to a lack of consumer confidence, which with things you can't "store up for later when they're more expensive" leads to less spending. Less spending = downturn economy.

    Stupid idea. Regulatorily forbidden in the US.
    Glad it's dead on the vine.

    E

  28. Luxury? by SilentConsole · · Score: 1

    Well, let me start by saying that I don't believe that the vast majority of data usage falls under anything other than personal entertainment, the big problem I'm seeing with comparing this to Uber is that Uber is fairly unambiguously a luxury. It is offered as an alternative to taxi's ( another luxury ) or walking/public transportation, which not subject to their business model. By making "surge pricing" you are not making it easier for people who aren't using it for entertainment to use it - you are making everything more expensive, and consequently harder to use. If data/network usage starting having surge pricing, there is no reasonable alternative - you are essential making a device useless if you can not afford to pay "luxury" rates for a service, on top of the already significant costs of being able to use this service at all. So, I think this comes more down to, do we classify all data usage as a luxury, or not?

  29. duh by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

    It's irrelevant (at least for voice) as providers have already or are in the process of moving away from the voice billing model and towards the data billing model where people pay for data but not, in most cases, for voice.

    If there's been a lack of investment in pure voice infra this move to data only billing would be the reason.

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