Slashdot Mirror


ULA Concedes GPS Launch Competition To SpaceX (spacenews.com)

schwit1 writes: ULA has decided against bidding on a military GPS launch contract, leaving the field clear for SpaceX. "ULA, which for the past decade has launched nearly every U.S. national security satellite, said Nov. 16 it did not submit a bid to launch a GPS 3 satellite for the Air Force in 2018 in part because it does not expect to have an Atlas 5 rocket available for the mission. ULA has been pushing for relief from legislation Congress passed roughly a year ago requiring the Air Force to phase out its use of the Russian-made RD-180 engine that powers ULA's workhorse Atlas 5 rocket."

This decision might be a lobbying effort by ULA to force Congress to give them additional waivers on using the Atlas 5 engine. Or they could be realizing they wouldn't be able to match SpaceX's price, and decided it was pointless wasting time and money putting together a bid. Either way, the decision suggests ULA is definitely challenged in its competition with SpaceX, and until it gets a new, lower cost rocket that is not dependent on Russian engines, its ability to compete in the launch market will be seriously hampered.

55 comments

  1. They could have bid with their Delta by sasparillascott · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ULA also has the Delta 4 rocket which uses U.S. designed / made rocket engines. Previously they were letting the 3 core Delta 4 handle the big launches and the single core Atlas 5 handle the smaller launches, but there is no reason they couldn't have bid with a single core Delta 4 if they wanted. Something smells politically fishy with this.

    1. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by rmdingler · · Score: 2

      ULA, the monopoly provider of such launches since its creation in 2006, said it was unable to submit a compliant bid because of the way the competition was structured.

      Basically, Lockheed and Boeing collaborated on every launch (under the United Launch Alliance), removing any competition from the equation, and undoubtedly, all cost controls.

      --
      Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

      Ernest Hemingway

    2. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      My guess is that a larger, more powerful rocket could not be bid in an economically feasible way.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    3. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 3, Interesting

      They could have, but their bid would have been in no way competitive with SpaceX since the Delta 4 is a lot more expensive, and doesn't make economic sense to use on a small launch.

      Another interesting point is that ULA has the full production rights, schematics, etc for the RD-180 engine, as that was part of the original deal. However, it would cost a lot of money to set up production, and on top of that, their production costs would be more expensive than just buying the engines from the Russians. Thus, ULA doesn't want to do that if they can avoid it, and would rather try to convince Congress to let them resume buying from Russia, at least until the newer engines they've made deals with Blue Origin to build are available.

    4. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by dotancohen · · Score: 1

      They could have, but their bid would have been in no way competitive with SpaceX since the Delta 4 is a lot more expensive, and doesn't make economic sense to use on a small launch.

      SpaceX should seize the opportunity to set their bidding to whatever ULA was charging before SpaceX came along. That's what happens when "bidding contracts" can be fulfilled by exactly one supplier. Isn't that what the Russians did with sending NASA astronaughts to the ISS? NASA is now paying >60 million USD per seat, when the shuttle was flying the cost was 20 million USD per seat.

      --
      It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
    5. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by careysub · · Score: 1

      They could have, but their bid would have been in no way competitive with SpaceX since the Delta 4 is a lot more expensive, and doesn't make economic sense to use on a small launch.

      SpaceX should seize the opportunity to set their bidding to whatever ULA was charging before SpaceX came along. That's what happens when "bidding contracts" can be fulfilled by exactly one supplier. Isn't that what the Russians did with sending NASA astronaughts to the ISS? NASA is now paying >60 million USD per seat, when the shuttle was flying the cost was 20 million USD per seat.

      According to NASA the average cost of a shuttle launch was $450 million dollars*. When were they sending up a crowd of 23 people per launch? (The largest crew every flown was 8.)

      *Even this is a low-ball that does not include the cost of the ground infrastructure required to support the shuttle, nor pro-rating development costs. The total program cost, adjusted for inflation, was $200 billion, and there were 135 launches, for a naive per-launch cost of $1.5 billion per. That would require 75 people to bring the per seat cost down to $20 million.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    6. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by Gription · · Score: 1

      Your figures assume that there was nothing of value in the cargo bay. Even on a ISS resupply mission the mass in the shuttle bay would be figured to be the higher portion of the launch expense.

      (I still think the $20 million figure was a bit fudged...)

    7. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by geekmux · · Score: 1

      ULA also has the Delta 4 rocket which uses U.S. designed / made rocket engines. Previously they were letting the 3 core Delta 4 handle the big launches and the single core Atlas 5 handle the smaller launches, but there is no reason they couldn't have bid with a single core Delta 4 if they wanted. Something smells politically fishy with this.

      Oh, it smells politically fishy now, but oddly enough it didn't back when we were signing contracts with our largest cold war enemy to help drive our space program?

      Oh yeah, that makes a hell of a lot of sense...

    8. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by kaiser423 · · Score: 2

      They have the drawings, but that doesn't mean that they have all of the processes -- these are complex items operating at the edges of materials science. The Russians are still more advanced than the US in many metallurgical sciences. There are some alloys and specific metal grain configurations used in the RD-180 that simply no one else knows how to do but the Russian shops that build the RD-180 engine, which are under this embargo.

      Cue the talk about when we were looking to resurrect some Saturn V engines, there were numerous compounds and other items that we didn't know how to produce either -- the proprietary process died with the one-man shop that knew the secret sauce and had the dialed in equipment.

    9. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by orion205 · · Score: 1

      The $20 million is what Russia was charging for a Soyuz seat back when Shuttle was flying. Now that the Shuttle is retired and US has no other option for sending astronauts to ISS, they've upped the price to $60 million. That was the point being made. Shuttle was way more expensive.

    10. Re:They could have bid with their Delta by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

      There are some alloys and specific metal grain configurations used in the RD-180 that simply no one else knows how to do but the Russian shops that build the RD-180 engine

      Actually, they're using metaphysically strong ceramics baked from the the bones of political dissenters.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
  2. GPS needs an upgrade by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Japan has started launching QZSS satellites that improve GPS accuracy to centimetre level, the first one being Michibiki. They have demonstrated navigation systems that can tell what lane you are driving in and when you are drifting out of it, or keep a snow plough on track at the side of a road with extreme precision.

    I wish some of the competing GNSS would support that kind of accuracy. There are lots of interesting applications.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    1. Re:GPS needs an upgrade by the_other_chewey · · Score: 2
      QNSS is an augmetation system that relies on the existing Navstar/GPS infrastructure.

      I wish some of the competing GNSS would support that kind of accuracy. There are lots of interesting applications.

      None do - or all do. There are multiple regional SBAS systems in operation already:

      WAAS, North America
      EGNOS, Europe
      StarFire (special end-point processing + SBAS data), worldwide

      More are under construction or proposed, but still all depend on a GNSS
      (or something close to it, India's IRNSS e.g. isn't global, but will do) for
      their baseline position.

    2. Re:GPS needs an upgrade by the_other_chewey · · Score: 1

      Damn, "QNSS" is meant to be "QZSS" of course. There are way too many FLAs in the naming of geopositioning services.

    3. Re:GPS needs an upgrade by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      (Interface Specification of
      QZSS) is +/- 2.6m (95%).

    4. Re:GPS needs an upgrade by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      There are way too many FLAs in the naming of geopositioning services.

      I think you mean FoLAs.

    5. Re:GPS needs an upgrade by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... and that sounds great, but it certainly makes your "Bomb address" way more accurate. In a world where every fifth grader with an employed parent can have a drone, super accurate GPS is a pretty terrifying thing.

  3. US has RD-180 production rights... by daveschroeder · · Score: 1

    ...so I don't really understand this.

    No, wait, I do.

    This is ULA saying, essentially, "You give us the Russian-sourced RD-180s because they're cheaper and less of a hassle for us, or we're taking our ball and going home."

    http://aviationweek.com/awin/u...

  4. Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by Opportunist · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The Atlas, you know, THE Atlas, the rocket that carries the name of the rocket that got the first US satellites into orbit and that got the first US astronaut into orbit, that very rocket that bears a rather ... let's say symbolic name, that damn rocket is in its current iteration powered by RUSSIAN engines?

    Are you fucking kidding me?

    Please don't tell me that's true for the ICBMs too. Depending on the international diplomatic situation it MIGHT get a wee bit tricky to get spare parts should the US actually feel the urge to use them...

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      When you need to use them is not the time you need spare parts for ICBM's.

    2. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by gmack · · Score: 2

      Worse than that.. the northern arctic radar system designed to warn us of incoming ICBMs uses vacuum tubes (or at least it did 10 years ago when my uncle worked there) sourced from Russia.

    3. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Actually it is good. Makes a war less likely.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    4. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 1

      The current US ICBM (Minuteman III) is an entirely different model of rocket. For one, it's a solid-fuel rocket, rather than liquid, so it's an entirely different beast.

    5. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by Immerman · · Score: 2

      Only if the Russian war infrastructure is similarly dependent on American-made components. Otherwise you have a situation where one side has a distinct strategic advantage, which can make war *more* likely.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    6. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by dunkelfalke · · Score: 2

      They were before the sanctions.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    7. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      The US land-based nuclear deterrent force is made up of the Minuteman-III, which is a solid-fuel based booster. No Russian parts to be seen there.

      And there's also the sea-based Trident SLBM, which is arguably the bigger deterrent. Everyone knows where the Minuteman-III missiles are. Only people aboard the submarines, and the upper brass in the Navy know where the Ohio-class SSBNs are.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    8. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      Only people aboard the submarines, and the upper brass in the Navy know where the Ohio-class SSBNs are.

      Many years ago, I was on one of the boomers.

      The upper brass knows not much more than which ocean the boomer is when it's at sea.

      The Captain and Navigator (and the Nav's CPO) know where the boat is. The rest of us generally knew which ocean we were in....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    9. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by slew · · Score: 1

      And there's also the sea-based Trident SLBM, which is arguably the bigger deterrent. Everyone knows where the Minuteman-III missiles are. Only people aboard the submarines, and the upper brass in the Navy know where the Ohio-class SSBNs are.

      FWIW, advances in submarine detection technology have gotten to the point that many feel that submarines will eventually become the "battle-ship" under the sea (e.g., obsolete). Although today, stationary passive sonar nets only listen for submarines near coasts and "chokepoints" that subs traverse, improved information and processing power will eventually allow passive sonar in the open ocean and even optical illumination detection using drones equipped with high-powered laser-leds. When that become practical, it is pretty much game over for subs and it they will go the way of the battleship (probably to be replaced with swarms of harder to detect underwater drone ships like fighter planes are being replaced today with flying drones).

    10. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The US hasn't deployed liquid-fueled ICBMs since, I think, Titan (successor to Atlas -- it used storable liquids as opposed to cryogenic).

      Peacekeeper, Poseidon, etc are all solids based. Most the of the required maintenance (ie, not much) is on the warheads.

    11. Re:Wait, wait, wait. WHAT DID YOU SAY? by RevDisk · · Score: 1

      I sincerely doubt anyone will trust a drone with nuclear weapons launch capacity. I certainly would not.

      Granted, it's not my area of study, but I sincerely doubt subs are completely obsolete. The oceans don't have sonar nets everywhere, and it's not practical to lace the every ocean with them. Drones have even less coverage/duration. As you said, they're generally at chokepoints. And the US has plenty of ocean access without said chokepoints. I sincerely doubt they will become obsolete anytime within the next couple of decades.

  5. Bravo SpaceX by ramriot · · Score: 2

    Interesting that,especially when you realise it was SpaceX's lobbying that got the existing ban enforced in the first place.

    1. Re:Bravo SpaceX by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 5, Informative

      It's hard to blame SpaceX for lobbying on that, as ULA was lobbying to keep them out of the process. Unfortunately, if you want to play the game in DC, at least at any significant level, you need to be involved in lobbying, even if only to counter the people who are lobbying against you.

    2. Re:Bravo SpaceX by khallow · · Score: 3, Informative

      US aerospace is notorious for using regulation and bureaucracy to obstruct space activities. I have heard, for example, that one of the last Atlas II (operated by Lockheed Martin (LM)) launches in 2004 had been delayed for a few days by a bogus concern about battery issues. Apparently, the same company then proceeded to interfere with two Atlas III launches by expressing recycled concerns about the RD-180 rocket engines used on that rocket.

      SpaceX has also had some of their earliest launches delayed due to games played by LM (story discusses a SpaceX Vandenberg launch first getting delayed in turn by a delay in a Titan IV launch operated by LM and then being kicked out of their launch facilities because LM was occupying a nearby launch facility).

    3. Re: Bravo SpaceX by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      So, a company pushes to enforce a ban that is in America's interest and that is bad.
      Otoh, ULA fought against spacex using existing launch sites at Vandenberg or kennedy, which lead to their first being at Marshall ( very expensive ); fought a second time against spacex getting a site at Vandenberg and Kennedy, but lost; fought to force the DOD to give them a massive launch contracts before spacex, or BO, were in place to bid; fought against Kennedy offering up a launch site for private use, esp spacex; pushed congress to cut spacex out of the human flight ( ula wanted only 1-2 winner; them and Boeing and or SNC and ula );

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    4. Re:Bravo SpaceX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As an American Engineer, I'm totally OK with lobbying for American built rocket engines.

  6. another triumph of Capitalism by Thud457 · · Score: 1

    This is what happens when you let bean-counters, politicians and lobbyists decide your space policy.
    enjoy.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  7. Re:Ever seen a ruskie car? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Notice how Malay plane shot down by them is still in the news after all this time but their plane blown out of the sky is long out of the news. Dog karma.

  8. Re:Ever seen a ruskie car? by MachineShedFred · · Score: 2

    The Russians were ahead right until the Gemini program - Ed White's spacewalk may have been second, but it was almost twice as long, and due to far better pressure suits and maneuvering equipment, he was able to actually do something besides float there. Also, he didn't have to depressurize his suit just to get back through the hatch like Leonev did because his suit didn't balloon on him in the vacuum of space.

    After that moment, NASA pulled ahead in rendezvous, docking, and of course actually sending people to the moon, landing on it, bringing them back, etc.

    Russia's boosters have always been first rate, and that's what gave them the early lead. NASA recognized that if they got into a lifting capacity contest, they were going to lose for another decade. Kennedy moved the goalposts with a public declaration to land on the moon, and made other technologies more important.

    --
    Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  9. Re: Another day, another Musk blowjob by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Said the man attached to the front of kock bros pants.

  10. The Same SpaceX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yeah, that's the same SpaceX that lobbied congress to have their complete lack of airworthiness documentation waived. Sure, they have "documentation" but it was bullshtted up in 2 weeks after the design had been tested, instead of being part of the design process, doesn't match what's in production, is incomplete, inconsistent, routinely wrong, and doesn't support the safety case required for space launch. Their rocket is only certified because congress mandated that we certify it, regardless of any engineering data or (generally) the lack thereof. It's no different than getting a shady low-bid plumber who then slips the code inspector a Benjamin.

    1. Re:The Same SpaceX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Airworthiness documentation? It's a freakin' rocket, which launches over the ocean, not a damned aeroplane!

      SpaceX is selling the service, not the vehicle. ULA started out with vehicles designed to be sold to the government (NASA or DOD), so of course they had to supply more paperwork. They got payed, cost plus, so cry me a river.

    2. Re:The Same SpaceX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      you sound like a real know nothing jackass.

    3. Re:The Same SpaceX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      you sound like a real know nothing jackass.

      Not only does he sound like one on Slashdot, he is one in real life.

  11. Re:Ever seen a ruskie car? by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

    Russia's boosters have always been first rate, and that's what gave them the early lead.

    What gave the Russians an early lead was a willingness to use modified ICBMs as boosters.

    In the very earliest days of NASA, since NASA was a civilian agency, NASA had a policy of using "civilian" rockets. Which meant that they had to develop their rockets from scratch rather than using modified ICBMs.

    And then Russia put Sputnik up. And Gagarin. And NASA found itself forced to use ICBMs to play catchup. Which they did, as you noted.

    But the problem was never the superiority of Russian rockets, but the self-imposed blinders NASA operated under....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  12. Re:Ever seen a ruskie car? by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

    "In the very earliest days of NASA, since NASA was a civilian agency, NASA had a policy of using "civilian" rockets. Which meant that they had to develop their rockets from scratch rather than using modified ICBMs."

    What the heck are you talking about.
    The first satellite booster was the Juno-1/Jupiter-C which was based on the Redstone SRBM.
    The Thor which evolved into the Delta was an IRBM.
    The Atlas used for Score and any number of launches including the Mercury orbital flights was the USs first ICBMs
    The Titan II was used for Gemini and evolved into the Titan III, Titan IV, and so on was an ICBM!

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  13. Re:Ever seen a ruskie car? by KGIII · · Score: 1

    The above is very much true. We certainly did use military tech to put us into space, modified tech, but military tech regardless. Also, the Russians were ahead because they're Russia. Their early cosmonauts didn't even pilot the craft IIRC. They really didn't mind losing a few people, it's was the USSR. Also, we often seem inclined to underrate Russian tech - it works. Their aeronautics have been first rate for a long time - look at the MiG or the Su. It may seem low tech, it's not - it's phenomenal tech for the price.

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  14. You are dead wrong. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    I have done work under FAA for Boeing, worked on MGS for NASA, and DOD contracts. If paperwork did not match up for any of them, then the work would not have been accepted. To claim that any of these organizations accepted BS work is just that; total BS.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  15. ah, the joy of free market competition by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lower prices for a better product, and the freedom of other competitors to enter the market at any time with something better - which keeps existing market leaders nimble or gives them a kick in the head.

    Too bad we had so many years without competition in which ULA could get fat and lazy.

    Also too bad we have had no free market competition in healthcare in the US since the 1940s when employers started attaching health insurance onto employment packages to circumvent FDR's wage and price controls; a market distortion made far worse when LBJ promised discounted health coverage to seniors (medicare) without enough government funding to cover it, which lead to an entire industry-wide distortion of massive cost-shifting, which was further manipulated by limits on cross-state-line health insurance policy sales (driven by all the corruption in state capitols where politicians put very high value on their regulatory powers and the campaign contributions they can get by using those powers).

    As a general rule, the free market is always better for the consumer than a monopoly or partial monopoly. I brought up heath care because people who do not know the history of it often cite the pre-ACA healthcare situation (which was very much NOT a free market) as evidence that massive market manipulations via regulation is superior to a free market.

  16. Re:Ever seen a ruskie car? by The_Rook · · Score: 1

    NASA pulled ahead of the russians in the 1960s because, while the russians pursued a lot of political "stunt" missions (first space walk, first woman in space, etc.), NASA methodically developed better spacecraft and techniques for a manned mission to the moon.

    in the 1970s and '80s the situation was reversed. NASA dropped the development of improved spacecraft (blame it on congress or nixon or whoever) while the soviets plodded away at making bigger and better space stations and made steady incremental developments to the soyuz system.

    --
    when religion is no longer the opiate of the masses, governments will resort to real opiates.