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Satellite Wars (ft.com)
schwit1 writes: Sixty years after the space race began, an orbital arms race is again in development. Military officials from the U.S., Europe and Asia confirm in private what the Kettering Group and other amateur stargazers have been watching publicly. Almost every country with strategically important satellite constellations and its own launch facilities is considering how to defend — and weaponize — their extraterrestrial assets. "I don't think there is a single G7 nation that isn't now looking at space security as one of its highest military priorities and areas of strategic concern," says one senior European intelligence official.
The U.S. is spending billions improving its defenses — primarily by building more capacity into its constellations and improving its tracking abilities. A $900m contract was awarded to Lockheed Martin in 2014 to develop a radar system capable of tracking objects as small as baseballs in space in real time. But there are also hints that the U.S. may be looking to equip its satellites with active defenses and countermeasures of their own, such as jamming devices and the ability to evade interceptions. A purely offensive anti-satellite program is in fast development as well. High-energy weapons and maneuverable orbiters such as space planes all open the possibility of the U.S. being able to rapidly weaponize the domain beyond the atmosphere, should it feel the need to do so.
The U.S. is spending billions improving its defenses — primarily by building more capacity into its constellations and improving its tracking abilities. A $900m contract was awarded to Lockheed Martin in 2014 to develop a radar system capable of tracking objects as small as baseballs in space in real time. But there are also hints that the U.S. may be looking to equip its satellites with active defenses and countermeasures of their own, such as jamming devices and the ability to evade interceptions. A purely offensive anti-satellite program is in fast development as well. High-energy weapons and maneuverable orbiters such as space planes all open the possibility of the U.S. being able to rapidly weaponize the domain beyond the atmosphere, should it feel the need to do so.
If two major powers (the kinds that have satellite constellations) are fighting, we have a lot more to worry about than Kessler Syndrome. Like, say, global thermonuclear annihilation.
Beam weapons are popular for their instant hit ability, but you have to have constant real-time tracking of the object (not simply a calculated trajectory), otherwise the tiniest vernier-thruster maneuver is enough to cause a miss. There's also a lot of potential countermeasures, both temporary (such as clouds of dust) and permanent (layered reflective foil skins).
If you don't need an instant hit then probably the most effective way is nothing more than a rocket full of sand. It's basically buckshot times tens of millions. If you launch opposite the direction of Earth's rotation (costs a couple thousand more m/s delta-V) you can get impact velocities in the ballpark of 15000+ m/s. A 5mg grain of sand would carry an impact force of 560 joules. By comparison, a 100mph fastball, an expert karate punch, and a professional golfer drive are all 150J. A .22LR leaves the muzzle of a gun with an energy of 168 joules, a .380 pistol with 245J, and a 9mm with 467J (again, remember that these are muzzle velocities, bullets lose energy quickly with distance). A grain of sand a satellite (aka, something that fundamentally has to be built lightweight) at 15000 m/s is just going to punch right through it. Tens of millions of them... well, you can't miss.
Also, small objects like grains of sand don't have long orbital lifespans. If you really wanted to you could fire them at a non-orbital trajectory as well. And they don't necessarily make what they hit explode, even if they punch right through it.
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