US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Programmer Jobs Will Decline 8% (computerworld.com)

theodp writes: Two weeks ago, as the nation's schools 'taught kids to program' with an Hour of Code, Microsoft and others celebrated a 6-year lobbying effort that culminated in the passage of legislation that made Computer Science a core K-12 subject, which the software giant said "will advance some of the goals outlined in Microsoft's National Talent Strategy." But on Tuesday, Computerworld reported that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has put somewhat of a buzzkill on the learn-to-code party, saying IT jobs will grow 12% over the next decade, although computer programmers will see an 8% decline. "Computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, so companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower," explained the government. The silver lining is that software developers, the largest occupational group in IT, will increase by 17% or 186,600, over this period. The nomenclature here is a little muddy, since "programmers" and "software developers" are often used interchangeably. Here's how they're distinguished in this article: "Programmers are focused on coding and implementing requirements, and that’s why they may be more susceptible to offshoring, in contrast to software developers who may be more engaged with the business, analyzing needs and collaborating with multiple parties."

Comments

Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[xxxJonBoyxxx]

Short term, I guess its time for any remaining "programmers" to change their titles to "developers"...which is probably what's really driving the "growth."

>> software developers who may be more engaged with the business, analyzing needs and collaborating with multiple parties

In other words, don't ever let anyone figure out what exactly you do, and make sure you're attending more meetings than actually working. Mission accomplished!

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M]

Tech jobs were the way of the future until technology itself, created by those tech jobs, allowed companies to hire people overseas for those same jobs.

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[jonnyj]

Tech jobs are only one way of using programming skills.

When kids learn to code, they learn to think algorithmically. They learn to break down problems into smaller, easier to define sub-problems. They learn to construct models. They learn to apply numerical methods to problem evaluation. They learn about the relationship between inputs and outputs, cause and effect. They get to explore feedback mechanisms, hysteresis, system complexity and instability.

These are highly desirable workplace skills in a wide range of occupations. Physicists, bankers, data scientists, pricing specialists, marketing consultants, accountants (the list is endless) all benefit from the analytical mind of a someone who understands how to code.

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[Chrisq]

Go where the money is. If management is what you want to pay me for, I'll be a manager. How hard can it be to pretend I know what I'm talking about despite not having any clue?

Actually its difficult for a lot of people. To say with complete confidence "we know that the future is sub-prime lending" or "stock markets will keep going up, we've seen the end of boom and bust" is very difficult for anyone who understands empirical methods, basic probability, and so on. It is also something that anyone with a conscience would feel bad doing (unless they really believe it).

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[Darinbob]

Or just become useful. The problem is that so many programming jobs, in IT especially, are cookie-cutter. Anyone who can program can fill the role with minimal training. No degree or experience necessary, just present a certificate. But change it up a bit and it is very difficult to offshore the job. Know the math as well as programming, you'll be much more likely to keep your job even if your job is more difficult than moving around a box on a web page. Know the physics too, or the business, or the EE, or the economics, or whatever it is that the company actually *does*. In embedded systems learn how the system works, learn the hardware, learn the OS. Overall work together with the designers instead of sitting passively waiting for some bite sized pieces of programming assignments to filter down. Yes this is harder for junior level employees but that's also the best time to flex some mental muscles and learn new stuff, volunteer for projects, and make sure the boss thinks of you as more than adequate.

And just by saying "tech" you dumb it down because tech is already dumbed down. Call it engineering or development or product creation, just call it anything other than something that can be done after a semester at a trade school.

Re:Short term: change title from programmer to dev

[Darinbob]

I've been programming for 30 years, and only at the start was I in anything I call a "tech" job. Granted the term is flexible and vague but it mostly seems to imply working with technology without having to know how it actually works - pushing buttons on a black box, following the script from the certification course, thinking inside the box.

There's been a disturbing trend recently about minimizing the amount of effort necessary to get a job. Taking the fewest classes, skipping the hard classes, skipping school altogether, etc. I think every single class I ever took in university has been useful in real life, even if in an abstract way (by learning how to think and exercise the brain), and for sure every single computer science class I ever took has been practical on the job including theory. Taking shortcuts does not help in the long run, so why settle for being no better than anyone in an low wage offshore firm?

For the programming at younger ages, like high school, I get the impression that these are extremely dumbed down and are more oriented towards trade school type stuff. No theory, programming only in a popular language, the programming involves tying together existing components without knowing how those components work. I'd love it if they tought numerical methods, whether high school or college, because I see too many programmers who don't understand even the rudimentary parts of it. I'd be happy if they really taught algorithms and not how to make a web page.

It's the end, folks

[Anonymous Coward]

The never-ending growth myth has to be put to rest now. We need a new social model that will for us, not just for the rentiers and 1%ers.

We can't grow eternally. It's not physically possible or socially desirable.

Unions

[rsilvergun]

If there's going to be any hope for the American working class we're gonna need to get over our childish "I can make it on my own" attitudes and bring back organized labor and the power and protection it offers. It's ridiculous to think we as individuals can effectively bargain with mega corps. John Galt is a child's daydream...

Re:Unions

[Anonymous Coward]

The problem is that we are told that corporations are people too, yet citizens are affected greatly by immigration laws. Corporations, seemingly not.

Re:Unions

[Tablizer]

American working class we're gonna need to get over our childish "I can make it on my own" attitudes and bring back organized labor and the power and protection it offers

That's indeed one of the most powerful propaganda gimmicks of the plutocrats: claiming unions are for unmanly wimps, and if you can't "cowboy" it out there on your own, you deserve to perish. They spend a lot of money to shove that message up the population.

Of course, the rich have their crony "buddy system" that does pretty much what a union does. Bill Gates had access to a minicomputer as a kid because his parents had money and lived in the better school district. Mitt, Trump, and the Bush bro's had daddy's money and influence.

Re:Unions

[Tablizer]

See, you're doing it.

Citizens accept a certain degree of inequality because we know it's necessary for capitalism to work properly. However, populations won't accept HUGE inequality very long. The claim that huge inequality is necessary for "motivation" is utterly ridiculous.

It's not just about "fairness", but the very political system. The rich buy laws they want via campaign contributions and political ads, short-circuiting democracy.

Look at their attack on climate change research and solutions. They don't want to pay for greener energy, and so spend boatloads of money to discredit the idea. And it works, roughly 40% of the population fell for it.

Re:Unions

[ClickOnThis]

John Galt gave up on the system and ran off to be a farmer. What does that say about progress?

Nothing.

But it says a lot about Ayn Rand's juvenile self-centered world-view.

Not bloody likely

[iamacat]

Everybody tried outsourcing and realized that it doesn't work. Creating a great product requires creativity and each contributor capable of saying no to superiors and standing up for their improvements to the solution. This mind set does not yet exist much outside Silicon Valley, let alone USA and huge lifestyle disparity between american bosses and outsourced coders would not allow it to flourish.

By the time developing countries have the kind of talent in greater quality/quantity than US, labor will not be that cheap anymore because employees will know their worth. At that point, I will just move there.

Re:Not bloody likely

[sinij]

Outsourcing can and does produce as good if not better software.

People can and do win lottery. In my experience, outsourcing to China and India results in a quality drop. Indian teams tend to practice cowboy coding and are more comfortable releasing without robust testing. Chinese teams tend to value seniority and rigid hierarchy, as such problems that are discovered are not communicated and as a result go unaddressed. Sure, all of this can happen without outsourcing, but outsourcing makes it a lot more likely.

What am I?

[freak0fnature]

Am I a programmer? Am I a Software Developer? Maybe I'm a Software Engineer! Maybe a software architect... honestly I can't tell anymore

Re:H1B

[arth1]

Well, legally speaking, that should not be the case. There will be 8% less jobs that are currently going unfilled because of lack of domestic workers.

I'm sure that you know well that there are ways to prevent domestic workers from being able to get the job so they can use cheaper H1B resources.
It's not uncommon to tailor-make the job description and application requirements to fit the candidates from a foreign staffing company supplying H1B applicants.
But something as simple as "must be proficient in [insert language] for efficient coordination with outsourced development" will also do.

Re:Programming is for Cows

[Spy Handler]

No, Sexconker, it's the H1-B workers who are cash cows for asshole U.S. corporations who keep firing U.S. workers and hiring them, so they can make more money off of destroying the middle class in this country.

This is why you must vote for Bernie (if you're a liberal) or Trump (if you're a conservative). Clinton, Bush and Rubio want exactly the same thing which is to make their corporate masters richer while gutting the middle class. When Disney was laying off their entire IT department and forcing them to train their H1B replacement workers, whose campaign do you think Disney was funding? Hillary and Jeb's. Not Bernie or Trump: Disney hates these guys.

Re:END THE FED! I saw this coming 30 years ago.

[Anonymous Coward]

24 year old, 1 year of experience, bachelors degree in computer science, in a small city in NYS north of NYC. I applied to 10 software dev jobs 4 months ago. I received 8 offers. I am absolutely no one special. My skill set isn't better than anyone else, my degree isn't from an overly prestigious university, etc.

I understand my experience is anecdotal. But, your analogy doesn't hold up either. If anything a recruiter wants to make you think you have no options, and that you aren't special, so they can negotiate your wage down and make you take their crappy 6 month contract position in Looky Lew, west virginia,