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Ask Slashdot: Predictions For 2016? (slashdot.org)
An anonymous reader writes: Ok folks, it's been ten years since we've done this. What are your tech/science/nerd/misc predictions for 2016? Is VR going to be the bombshell it's being hyped as? Are wearables going to come into their own? Which tech companies are going to implode, and which are going to blossom? What discoveries are we going to make this year? Will people ever shut up about Donald Trump? Which new movies, books, games, and TV shows are going to be awesome? Which are going to suck? How will our privacy and security erode in 2016? And anything else you'd care to forecast.
http://predictionbook.com/ is a website that allows one to record predictions along with a probability estimate for them. Others can then comment and give their own estimates. When a prediction comes due one can then judge it. It also has a nice graph that allows one to then see how accurate one has been (most humans are overconfident). It isn't perfect since for example it doesn't have categories for predictions; it would be nice for example to be able to say look at just one's predictions related to politics, or to the space program or something similar. But overall, I strongly recommend it.
He has no chance of being elected, and he knows that.
Reality disagrees... but please, keep saying stuff about Trump. It only helps.
I am aware that polls this early are largely meaningless, but let's look at some numbers outside of context.
He's got about 40% of the Republican vote at the moment. Let's assume that figure holds across the party so that, for example, if Cruz bows out 40% of those supporters move to Trump. That gives him 40% + (40% x 60%) = 64% of the Republican vote, using back-of-the-envelope estimates.
No one bothered to check with Democratic voters until recently, but Trump has stronger support from Democrats than he does from Republicans!
Astonishing!
If *those* numbers are accurate, he could get elected right now.
And all of this is ignoring any context. For example:
a) The investigation into Hillary could conclude, bringing charges against her
b) Hillary could have a medical issue (campaigning is stressful, she's had medical problems, Trump hasn't)
c) US could have another domestic terrorist attack
d) Trump has not made campaign ads - he's spent about a million, compared to Jeb's 32 million.
And finally, Trump will get elected simply because no one opposes his position in any rational way - it's all namecalling and derision.
Don't believe me? Find a rational argument as to why a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country isn't a common-sense response to an immediate threat.
You can't do it. The only response, so far as I can find, is to cast aspersions on the person asking that question. Terms like bigot, predjudiced, racist, and extremist are used. Also outright lies such as "it's unconstitutional" (no, it's not), "it's impossible to tell who's a Muslim" (no, it's not), "that's not what America is about" (we've done it before), and so on.
Then tell me why enforcing immigration law is a bad move (instead of amnesty, which is what the administration was quietly floating), why simplifying the tax code is a bad move, why having strong treaty negotiation is a bad move, and why replacing Obamacare with something better would be a bad move.
As near as I can tell, early November was the tipping point where you could have stopped Donald Trump. Someone could have stepped up and addressed his policies, and in that act presented as a strong leader. By now it's probably too late.
Oh, and let's not forget that the lead Democratic candidate has accomplished nothing in her career, and the democratic runner-up is a Socialist. A SOCIALIST!
Please.
Donald may not win the election, but saying he has no chance is entirely without merit.
Brianna Wu is creating Videogames
I'm the Godzilla of Feminists.
and
None of this has anything to do with videogames. But it's what I waste the majority of my time doing.
I have to be honest, I need some help or I'm not going to last. If I quit, that would signal a victory to those harrasing (sic) me. If you want me here, working to hold the people that break laws accountable, I need help. I have got to get back to making games
Really? "working to hold the people that break laws accountable'??? And then immediately after - "I need help. I have to get back to making games."??? The only thing in that sentence that makes any sense is "I need help."
I mean, really. Claiming to be the one holding off the barbarians at the gate, and asking money so you can both do that and make games?
And just what are the "barbarians" doing?
have a well-known stalker that posts disturbing levels of information about my house, my car, my pets, my neighborhood. So, I waste hours documenting this for law enforcement. Later, this person emails me to say he's gone through my husband's blog and has more private information from there.
In other words, someone has gone on the net and found readily searchable public information. You run a business, your name and business address are public information. So, run it out of your home, that's the address they'll find. Ditto for the neighborhood. Google Street view, etc. As for the car and pets, really? That's threatening? And if they've gone through your husbands' blog, it's not private information. Get over yourself.
And the final ask is just as lame as the rest:
Here's where you come in: If you appreciate what I do, please chip in so I can hire some help with the Women in Tech advocacy I do. I need someone to help me with the medial parts of dealing with my attackers so I can focus on my work, making and shipping games. I imagine we'll also have them work on women in tech advocacy.
Why not just come out and admit you like being a professional victim more than the game industry, and be done with it?
Oops, almost forgot this quote from the left sidebar:
"I'm Brianna Wu and I'm Risking my Life Standing up to Gamergate"
No, you're not. Cut the melodrama, it's not working any more. Gamergate is ancient news that pretty much everyone else has put behind them, in part because of crazy people like you, Wu.
And to those reading this, don't bother to click on the "creator posts" link - it's a lame attempt to get some google juice by posting the exact same crap 5x.
"Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.