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Seismic Data From North Korea Suggest a Repeat of 2013 Nuclear Test
Lasrick writes: Seismologist Jeffrey Park has done an initial analysis of the seismic data from North Korea's reported nuclear weapon test and found 'an uncanny resemblance to the signals recorded for the February 12, 2013 detonation.' Park's analysis pretty much destroy's the North Korean claim that they detonated a hydrogen bomb, and he postulates that P'yongyang is desperate for attention during the US presidential election cycle.
Siegfried Hecker, one of the world's top experts on the North Korea nuclear program, is nonetheless concerned that the DPRK has now completed its fourth test, and with it a greater sophistication in their bomb design. Hecker is also skeptical that the test was an H-bomb. However, as he says, "We know so little about North Korea's nuclear weapons design and test results that we cannot completely rule it out."
Siegfried Hecker, one of the world's top experts on the North Korea nuclear program, is nonetheless concerned that the DPRK has now completed its fourth test, and with it a greater sophistication in their bomb design. Hecker is also skeptical that the test was an H-bomb. However, as he says, "We know so little about North Korea's nuclear weapons design and test results that we cannot completely rule it out."
We also cannot rule out that NK has crated an earthquake machine, capable of producing any degree of tremors in the Earth they would like - the seismic data being so identical re-enforces this possibility since they would likely want to copy known seismic output for a test.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
P'yongyang is desperate for attention during the US presidential election cycle
When are we NOT in an election cycle? Is there any time ever that someone is not campaigning for public office?
Even if they aren't actively campaigning, they are positioning and posturing for future "election cycles"
Oh, and I believe I saw some aluminum tubes in a satellite photo of N. Korea... so....
My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
I don't know, if you put 768kT MIRVs in a single missile and targeted each separate warhead at a single city, you could theoretically do enough damage to a mid sized country to cause it to teeter close to collapse. In fact, if you shot those at say, the top 5 US cities, you wouldn't have enough to end the US, but you'd crater the US economy in short order. It's not necessary for those warheads to even annihilate those cities, which they probably wouldn't, but it would be enough to empty the cities out and cause complete chaos.
Yes, you can't kill everyone in a country that way, and it would actually take quite a lot of nukes to seriously depopulate a country by direct explosion effects or even residual radiation. But it could kick off the loss of order and infrastructure which would allow disease and disorder to complete the job. In that sense, radiation is much worse because it has a denial effect over areas that wouldn't be otherwise damaged by a blast.
Unfounded speculation here but...Maybe this was a mistake where they really thought they had achieved H bomb detonation because in order to do so, you must first detonate a fission bomb. Except the H bomb, for whatever reason, didn't work.
I mean, let me ask you this, would you like to be the guy that tells Mr. Un that the H bomb fizzled?
That was the turning point of my life--I went from negative zero to positive zero.
They only have a stunted A-bomb that they don't have a delivery system for. So, they're still not really a serious threat.
However, they are much closer to taking that crappy payload and putting it on a missile that could hit Japan.
And they could probably already trundle that device into an underground tunnel that goes right into Seoul.
It's mostly a joke because they're waving around a BB gun and calling it an assault rifle. You could still put someone's eye out with that thing, though.
I am absolutely flabbergasted that anyone would insinuate that the honorable Kim Jong Ill would actually LIE about something like this!
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
Why would you want a nuclear weapon when you could have a machine to make earthquakes?
You can't stir a cup of tea with a nuke, whereas in theory the earthquake machine offers an infinite range of variability for custom uses; paint shaking, avalanche causement, or cleaning every camera sensor in the country all at the same time. Would you not be fanatically devoted to a country where your camera sensor was forever free of dust? An earthquake machine is plainly the most direct path to the love of the people under your rule, which would also explain why spending on such a project would take precedence over food or shelter.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
They only have a stunted A-bomb that they don't have a delivery system for. So, they're still not really a serious threat.
They tried the A-bomb three times:
- The first one had yield that was way low (about 1 kiloton). Probably a "fizzle" (extreme shortfall of output, typically from blowing apart too soon, though it may still be far more powerful than a conventional explosive). EVERY country developing nuclear explosives has had one or more fizzles.
- The second did considerably better (about 4 kilotons), though probably still below their design intent.
- The third was better yet (about 7 kilotons). This is right in the ballpark of other countries' first bomb models, a tad more than half the yeild of the "Little Boy" bomb (about 13 kilotons) dropped on Hiroshima.
So it looks to me like they've got a competent design crew and a working design. At this point they may have their A-bomb robust enough, as well, to fit onto a missile and survive the trip to a target.
This was allegedly their first try to test an H-bomb, and had a similar yeild to the third A bomb. Maybe they had an ignition failure on the second (H) stage on their first try. Any bets on whether they do on their second or third?
The Teller-Ulam configuration is a bit complicated. But it's not all that hard to understand or to build. (With the amount of secrecy and misdirection published on nuclear weapons I would expect that first try by a new player would, more likely than not, either fail to ignite or have significant shortfalls in yield. But I'd also expect an army of physicists and engineers to figure it out and get it right pretty quiclkly. People might try to keep secrets, but physics doesn't.)
Meanwhile: A Nagasaki-sized bomb might be small by Cold War standards, but it's quite adequate to ruin a city.
However, they are much closer to taking that crappy payload and putting it on a missile that could hit Japan.
They have been making, and selling, their successful knockoff of the SCUD for three decades now. They have tested a number of long-range missiles. That's apparently part of the same program, so I would expect it to have a payload weight and volume adequate to carry the bombs.
And they could probably already trundle that device into an underground tunnel that goes right into Seoul.
With those missiles no tunnel is required. But they could also put it in a container, put that on a cargo ship, and sail it into pretty much any seaport in the world. If the coast guard doesn't catch it far enough out, blammo!
It's mostly a joke because they're waving around a BB gun and calling it an assault rifle. You could still put someone's eye out with that thing, though.
7 kilotons of TNT equivalent is the energy of metric s**t load of BBs.
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
Not so hyperbolic. The Trident II can carry 14 independently targeted W88 weapons, each about 500 kTons. I don't think one of these could kill the United States, the targets are too big and spread out. I do think the US would be a long time recovering if you nuked the 14 biggest cities. Most European nations other than Russia I think you would kill. If you launched an entire submarine load, 24 missiles, from one of our Ohio class boats, I think you could pretty much kill any continent you choose.
None of them can see the clouds; The polished wings don't care.
If they have plutonium (and apparently they do), it's not that much harder to get the lithium-6 using the COLEX process and deuterium from many-staged distillation separations to make the lithium deuteride needed for the Teller-Ulam bomb. It only took the US a few years after Alamagordo.
"Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
For this we can thank Madeline HalfBright and BJ Clinton. Thanks guys! In about ten years, we will be having the same conversation, except about Iran , Hillary, and BHO.
Here is the non-right-wing fantasy version (aka the "reality based version") of how North Korea went nuclear:
North Korea built its first graphite reactor, a prototype for its plutonium production reactors, during Ronald Reagan's first term of office, and it went critical in 1986 during his second term.
By that time work had begun in the plutonium reactors, and a plutonium extraction plant that was near completion in 1992, when Herbert George Walker Bush was in office.
The, in 1994, when Bill Clinton was President, and Madeleine Albright was Secretary of State the U.S. arranged the U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework which halted all work on the Yongbyon site, both the reactors and the processing plant and North Korea made no further movement toward going nuclear. This lasted for eight years, the entire rest of the Clinton presidency.
The in 2002, during the George W. Bush Presidency, ham-handed confrontational 'diplomacy' ('cuz real men don't do subtlety?) caused the Framework to breakdown, and North Korea restarted all of its weapon program facilities. This resulted, four years later, in 2006, with George W. Bush still in office North Korea began its series of nuclear tests.
So all of the significant progress toward going nuclear occurred during 5 Republican presidencies, and the 8 years of Bill Clinton are marked by a remarkable freeze on that program.
Now go back to you Democrat-hating, Fox News is on.
Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
This isn't an assessment of "what they're capable of", it's an assessment of what they just did. "The west" has an international network of seismographs and satellite suites specifically designed for picking up nuclear explosions, both on the surface and underground, and assessing their strength and various properties about them. In fact, this capability was first introduced as far back as 1963, it's nothing new. You don't blow up an atomic bomb on Earth without it being detected and analyzed.
Shiny New Australia.
Huh, the 1994-2002 gap corresponds to when North Korea was in the grip of a severe famine and lack of resources. I wonder if that had anything to do with their sudden willingness to negotiate. Let's not investigate this any further, and give all credit to the Clinton administration that was the author of so many successful international adventures such as Blackhawk Down.
This is a textbook example of selection-bias. Let's rewind and condense the conversation that happened.
OP: "Democrats caused this. Conclusion: Republicans good, Democrats bad."
Reply: "Here are some facts.. Republicans were always in power when NK did nuclear, Democrats never. Conclusion: Republicans bad, Democrats good."
You: "Only replying to one aspect of your post, ignoring unpleasant correlation between NK nukes and Republican presidency, dismissing correlation between lack-of-NK nukes and Democrat presidency. Conclusion: Republicans good, Democrats bad."
Me: "I'm not American and this is too complicated for trivial cause & effect analysis. Conclusion: Republicans, Democrats, NK government, OP, Reply, and You all bad, Me awesome."
"Oh no... he found the