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Microsoft's Windows Phone Platform Is Dead (windows10update.com)

Ammalgam writes: Tom Warren at the Verge today gave voice to what a lot of other technology analysts and today definitively declared that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform is dead. This largely based on the abysmal adoption numbers released in Microsoft's most recent earnings report. Mr. Warren articulates the obvious by stating: "With Lumia sales on the decline and Microsoft's plan to not produce a large amount of handsets, it's clear we're witnessing the end of Windows Phone. Rumors suggest Microsoft is developing a Surface Phone, but it has to make it to the market first. Windows Phone has long been in decline and its app situation is only getting worse. With a lack of hardware, lack of sales, and less than 2 percent market share, it's time to call it: Windows Phone is dead. "

Now this news should not be surprising to anyone who has watched the slow decline of Windows Phone. Last December, in an article on Windows10update.com, Onuora Amobi also wrote off the platform. In this case, his analysis was based on the nonconformity of the Microsoft user interface to Apple and Android's widely adopted aesthetic appeal. He wrote "I believe Windows Phone is dead. Kaput. Finished. Over. Done. ... Windows 10 is successful in part because it's a return to Windows 7 in many ways and that's what made the consumers happy. One of the definitions of insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result". This is exactly what Microsoft is doing and it's insane. Over 90% of Microsoft's desired audience like the look and feel of iPhones and Android devices. They do – it's not good or bad – it just is what it is. They spend their money on those two user interfaces."

24 of 456 comments (clear)

  1. Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You know The Verge?...That's a fucking iVerge!

    1. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by bondsbw · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Which is it, the apps or the UI?

      I, anecdotally, do NOT like the iOS UI. Its widgets are hidden away in a drawer, apps' most useful functions tend to be at the top of the screen instead of within thumb reach, and I can't even choose where on my homescreen I want to place an icon. Android UI is generally better and it provides more flexibility, although I wish it were more flexible out-of-the-box and didn't require rooting to do some of the truly nice things. Windows Mobile UI is a mix, where its widgets (tiles) aren't quite as useful but the tradeoff of better resource management makes that acceptable.

      Again, just my opinion, but the UI is absolutely NOT the weak point for Microsoft. Apps are. That should improve if more well-known app vendors port to universal Windows 10 apps, since they would only need to tweak the desktop/tablet UI a bit for phones. MS needs to be much more proactive on getting app developers on board.

      Microsoft has strength in its future ecosystem where apps will run on Xbox, phone, desktop, tablet, tables, HoloLens, IoT, and so on. IF they get that going, it could blow all the others away. Of course that's future and not today, so this strength is only hypothetical and as of this moment they don't get many points here.

      I don't think the Windows phone platform is dead. I think the WP7/8 iterations are dead. 10 has some great potential, but MS needs more innovation in hardware as well as software or that platform will never get to its fullest potential.

      --
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    2. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by Penguinisto · · Score: 5, Interesting

      There are fanboys of any platform that are always eager to make fun of competitors to their Chosen Idol.... so what exactly was your point there? Can't be due to any sneering by any top dog... currently it's a near-duopoly in the smartphone OS world, and fortunately neither major participant is run by a monopolistic player of dirty pool.

      Microsoft used to have 2-3rd place in North America at best, back before the iPhone and Android came out (#1 was BlackberryOS, #2 was PalmOS). Microsoft *could* have taken advantage of a decent position back then, but they, like Nokia, Palm, and BB, were blindsided by the advent of first the iPhone, then Android.

      Microsoft compounded its error in judgement by dumping time and money into 'Pink', thinking that a Sidekick inspired hardwired-keyboard phone style was eventually going to win out over the rapidly growing Apple/Android phones, who in turn were moving in the opposite direction (that is, Microsoft's competitors were busy as hell trying to cut down the number of hardware buttons, while Microsoft was busy adding more). In the end, the long-delayed Kin phone had no chance.

      To try and make up for the fuckups, They send ol' Elop over to take over a now-ailing Nokia, then slowly drag Nokia into Microsoft's fold. Problem is, they did it about 5 years too late, long after Nokia fell into massive decline. They should have taken over that platform before it caught fire, to borrow Elop's analogy.

      When Microsoft finally got its shit together, it was too little, too late. With a near-deserted app store, a widely-panned mobile UI, and a near-saturated market, Microsoft is in no position to do jack shit in this market... and I think the sooner Nadella gets the memo and pulls out of that mess, the better.

      IMHO, the whole Windows Phone fiasco is prima facie evidence that Microsoft overextended itself. Excepting the still-no-ROI-yet XBox line, they have been patently unable to do anything profitable, let alone successful outside of their existing core competencies: OS, Exchange, Office, Active Directory, and rebranding Logitech peripherals. ...maybe it's time for Microsoft to get back to basics, keep the stuff that actually makes money, dump the rest, then sit down and take a long, hard, vision-related look at where they really need to go in order to thrive (and not decline or remain stale-steady-state) a couple of decades from now?

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    3. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by war4peace · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'd wager that the vision is there, within Microsoft's employee pool, but got hopelessly stuck in mid-management politics and infighting over whose shit smells better.

      --
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    4. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by amiga3D · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I don't think the windows phone is dead either. It's on life support and has been since it's inception. Microsoft does have the money to keep it on life support forever if it wishes. They have the money to bleed for years and years until the finally somehow find a way to succeed in the phone market. It's only a matter of whether they have the will. Sony helped the Xbox succeed by repeatedly stabbing themselves in the eye. I suppose microsoft is hoping the same will happen with iOS and Android.

    5. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by leathered · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Agreed. The UI is superior to both IOS and Android and really is a joy to use. My employer recently gave me a new Lumia to replace the iPhone 5 they gave me previously. After some initial protests I was really taken by how slick the interface is.

      Apps are the problem. My bank doesn't provide one for WP and a number of others I have used regularly are either unavailable or inferior to their IOS and Android counterparts. It also has an image problem and I think it was a mistake to drop the Nokia branding. Microsoft may have good brand recognition but it is far from a trusted brand.

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    6. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by mattventura · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Microsoft has strength in its future ecosystem where apps will run on Xbox, phone, desktop, tablet, tables, HoloLens, IoT, and so on. IF they get that going, it could blow all the others away. Of course that's future and not today, so this strength is only hypothetical and as of this moment they don't get many points here.

      No, no, no, just no. The whole "homogenize mobile and desktop" line of thought is what gave us garbage like Windows 8. Targeting all devices means you have to follow the lowest common denominator. That, or implement platform-specific code, which is basically what you'd be doing for any cross-platform program to begin with. Programming aside, an app will often (even unintenionally) be designed around one platform, so even if it "works" on other platforms, it's not a particularly good experience. For example, an app designed for mobile might not have proper keyboard shortcuts on the desktop version, or an app designed for a desktop might involve too much typing to be usable on mobile.

    7. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are fanboys of any platform that are always eager to make fun of competitors to their Chosen Idol

      I've often wondered about the motivation for this kind of behavior...is it simply a form of self-reassurance, or bolstering of one's ego to confirm that a given decision (i.e. Android versus Apple) was the "right" decision? Or is it a way to possibly makeup for thinking that one has, in fact, made the "wrong" decision? What's the motivation to take sides and hoot like bands of rival monkeys at a waterhole??

      It's so weird. I own an Android phone, but I don't brag about it. I'm sure an iPhone or Lumia or Brand X would work just as well for me. Conversely, I don't diss people who happen to own a different brand of gadget, vehicle, or clothing than I do. Why would I?

      It just all seems so weird to me, like some kind of abstracted dick-waving or patriotism or something. Why would I care what brand of phone someone uses? Why would I care about them knowing or caring about what brand of phone I use?

      I don't understand it, I really don't.

      --
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    8. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by unencode200x · · Score: 5, Interesting

      RTFA. I haven't checked sources, but it to expand, the article claims that even though Apple has a lot of cash, they have a lot of debt too ($53 billion USD). Apple took the debt to fund their stock buybacks/dividends and to avoid taxes (2.1% vs. lots of taxes).

      If Apple brought their cash back to the US and paid their debts that would at least half their cash position. So they're not in bad shape by any means, but it's not as look as it sounds on the face of it.

      Also, iPhone accounts for 2/3's of their revenue according to the article. If that's the case, Apple has said they expect a ~14 percent drop in iPhone sales this quarter. That's a big deal. It actually puts them pretty close to where Microsoft is at.

      Alphabet, on the other hand, went and hired some wall street people, reigned in spending, reorganized and made some smart moves. They're on the rise.

      The most valuable company thing I'm not sure about, I guess it depends how you measure it. Market cap does tend to be what the media and others are talking about when they say "the most valuable company in the world," but we all know there is a lot more to it than that. For example, market cap only represents outstanding stocks and is really all over the place.

      --

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    9. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by ComputerGeek01 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I've often wondered about the motivation for this kind of behavior...is it simply a form of self-reassurance, or bolstering of one's ego to confirm that a given decision (i.e. Android versus Apple) was the "right" decision? Or is it a way to possibly makeup for thinking that one has, in fact, made the "wrong" decision? What's the motivation to take sides and hoot like bands of rival monkeys at a waterhole??

      I can't speak for any underlying psychobabble cause; but for some of us it feels more like an expression of our values. For example, I have an iPhone 6 and I support a few dozen of them at my job. I hate these things with the passion of a thousand hells specifically because the business model revolves around sweeping all of the blatantly obvious problems under the rug. The troubleshooting steps for any error you might ever come across for any application on this platform are as follows: 1.) Restart the phone. 2.) Reinstall the application. 3.) Format the phone and reinstall the application 4.) RMA the phone. That's it. If none of those steps work, you will be abandoned by any technical support team out there specifically because they all know that the cause will be some underlying edge case bug that Apple refuses to address or even acknowledge. You want log files? F-U, Apple fanboys don't need no stinkin log files so they don't exist despite Unix being one of the pioneers of this concept. You want an error code? Nope, can't help you there, they don't exist; you're lucky if you're told that a problem occurred at all. You want to roll back to a previous version of a software package where this problem didn't exist? Nope, never going to happen not even diagnostically because I guess no one who ever wrote code for the Apple platform has ever made a mistake.

      As for the animosity toward Apple fanboys? I suppose that it stems from a feeling that they are the ones that are propagating this culture of "There is no problem as long as you ignore the problem until you buy your next device.". It's a bit infuriating to be told by one of them that "You have to stop pretending that you can fix everything.".

    10. Re:Article paid by Apple to boo over it. by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Informative

      You want log files? F-U, Apple fanboys don't need no stinkin log files so they don't exist despite Unix being one of the pioneers of this concept. You want an error code? Nope, can't help you there, they don't exist; you're lucky if you're told that a problem occurred at all.

      Huh? What are you talking about?

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  2. Help! by pruedz · · Score: 5, Funny

    I can't find the "news" in the headline!

  3. MS is not abandoning the platform by The-Ixian · · Score: 5, Interesting

    MS has already stated that they will continue to develop and support Windows Phone OS. This article is just fear mongering. The platform is not going anywhere.

    They really have no other choice anyway. It would be foolish to give up on the platform because it can be used for IoT and tablets as well and it is also allows them to be more agile if things ever change. Not that I see them changing in the short term, but who knows, the pendulum may swing back into MS's favor in time and if it does, they will have the OS and infrastructure ready for it.

    Anyway, I will continue to use a Windows Phone because I like the interface. The lack of apps is not a concern for me.

    In addition, the fact that Windows Phone OS has such a low market share helps ensure its security as well since most malicious software and exploits will be developed for Android and iOS.

    --
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    1. Re:MS is not abandoning the platform by LichtSpektren · · Score: 4, Funny

      MS has already stated that they will continue to develop and support Windows Phone OS. This article is just fear mongering. The platform is not going anywhere.

      They really have no other choice anyway. It would be foolish to give up on the platform because it can be used for IoT and tablets as well and it is also allows them to be more agile if things ever change. Not that I see them changing in the short term, but who knows, the pendulum may swing back into MS's favor in time and if it does, they will have the OS and infrastructure ready for it.

      Anyway, I will continue to use a Windows Phone because I like the interface. The lack of apps is not a concern for me.

      In addition, the fact that Windows Phone OS has such a low market share helps ensure its security as well since most malicious software and exploits will be developed for Android and iOS.

      I bet you loved Windows RT too.

    2. Re:MS is not abandoning the platform by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 5, Insightful

      MS has already stated that they will continue to develop and support Windows Phone OS.

      And just like the Zune, they'll continue to do so right up until the day they cancel it.

  4. Re:If I'm going down, I'm taking you with me by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Interesting

    When the bloated shitware OEMs have been putting on machines becomes the bloated shitware shipped by Microsoft ... it's basically a sign that Microsoft is doing such a bad job at getting people to care they have to essentially resort to affiliate programs and paid product placement.

    I'm afraid Microsoft has lost the plot so badly they will never be able to recover ... because for those many of us who simply don't want or need Office, and have noticed that while Apple adds stuff like movie editing software Microsoft is removing Solitaire ... there's not much beyond the OS to run other people's software on that MS brings to the table.

    Except for notepad, Windows Explorer, and Calculator ... there's not a damned piece of Microsoft software which adds value to my home machine.

    If the once biggest software company is reduced to adware, they'd jumped the shark so badly as to be doomed. Because they'll have almost stopped being relevant.

    --
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  5. Windows Phone? by ledow · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Was it ever alive?

    I sit next to a box of Lumia's that someone bought for the school I work for before I started. They were only ever used as... well... phones. Nobody ever even tried to log in and use apps on them. And when I started two years ago, they'd not been used in over a year. Recently they were given to me as they'd been "sitting in a box" in someone's office collecting dust, and had been replaced with bog-standard dial-only phones.

    My tech had one when he first started here - but he was 19 and naive. Within days of seeing what a real phone did (and not crashing his on-screen keyboard like his one did all the time), he changed his contracts.

    The only other one I've ever seen was a teacher's at a previous school - who knew nothing about them and bought it because it "had Skype". She never managed to collect her email or anything else reliably and so never used anything that it could do.

    That's out of literally HUNDREDS of adults that I know who come to me with all their tech problems, all the new-starters whose phones I set up with our email etc., all the parents and kids that I see every day about anything even vaguely technical. I must touch several hundred different phones a year, and the majority are almost 50:50 iPhone and Samsung, with the rest being cheap knock-offs and less common brands.

    But Windows phones? Honestly? I've touched more Palm Pilots and Windows CE devices in the last year. And to be honest, they probably worked better and did more.

    (Funniest thing ever was trying to get a WPA key into a WIndows phone where the on screen keyboard crashes, and then trying to modify the key so it didn't use the numbers that you couldn't get to, then finally getting it online and finding out that the "Update" button not only would never fix the problem, but also that it never actually did anything... it would download for over an hour, reboot, and be exactly the same... this was THREE MONTHS after the tech discovered that it was sucking up all his data trying to download the update and his phone company just wrote off the data charges the second he mentioned "Windows phone" because they were so accustomed to it).

  6. Re:Assumes it ever lived by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I disagree. Windows Phone is a very solid interface, maybe even the best one, assuming you only have a few apps. The real problem was it only had a few apps. It was embarrassing how few options there were.

    The hardware was solid for the cheaper phones. If you wanted sub $100 phone, especially a couple years ago, the Lumia series was the way to go.

    And Android is effectively a monoculture too, everybody just gets their apps from Google Play, the same as if it was the Apple store.

    Really, the absolute lack of apps was what kept Windows Phone from being some kind of cult phenom. Too bad, I basically like the idea of a phone that I can use as a Windows computer.

  7. Re:If I'm going down, I'm taking you with me by LichtSpektren · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Google is the company that can be least trusted. They are the only company which has the primary business model of collecting as much information from you as possible and selling it to the highest bidder.

    Apple, BB and Microsoft collect info too, but at least it's not the basis of their business model.

    Google and Apple don't sell your info. Google's cash cow is the fact that they exclusively hold certain information about their customers, and they leverage it by allowing targeted advertisements--they would lose their broker status by giving out all that customer info (that's why they very carefully anonymize advertisements on their products, so they don't let their customers spill the beans to anybody else BUT Google.) Apple's cash cow is customer loyalty and huge margins on their premium devices, so they would be foolish to squander their customer loyalty by selling their info out

  8. I like my Windows Phone by Tinsoldier314 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Not ashamed to admit it. I loved my giant yellow Lumia 1520 and the HTC One isn't so either. I find the Metro UI (whatever it's called these days) to be really pleasant to use. In a way I like being the black sheep of mobile users, my phone solves the problems I need it to solve handily and looks good doing it and it doesn't look like the phones of everyone else.

    Plenty of iOS devices have gone through our household and I resent how there's still a lingering dependency on them because of old iTunes libraries requiring them. I resent the iTunes interface and how poorly designed it is; a miscarriage on a dinner plate is more appealing than that shitty software. It feels like the whole paradigm is a way to fuck over people.

    Android strikes me as a mass consumer oriented product which is probably why it's been so successful. Conformal and uninspiring in every way.

    It'd be a shame if the whole Windows Phone platform just died off. I've always told everyone good things about it.

  9. 2% market share is PLENTY to keep it alive. by BitZtream · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Do you have any idea how much money just 2% of the US mobile market is?

    2% of the US market is still 6.5 million subscribers.

    If you sell a new one every 2 years at $400/each, thats still almost 3 billion dollars a year in revenue. Drop it to $200/phone and its still 1.3b. In ONLY America. Then theres the rest of the world.

    Just because some moron at some shitty magazine makes an ignorant statement doesn't make it news for nerds any more than Donald Trump talking about tech is news for nerds.

    As far as every number indicates, the business is profitable. Its not an iPhone, but it still makes money. Killing it would be stupid. Selling it might be more profitable, but killing it would just be utterly stupid.

    Did this guy work at GM when they decided to stop selling the only 2 profitable brands they had as well? Idiot.

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  10. Re:Assumes it ever lived by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Windows 10 from a user experience might not be too bad, but it's the aggressive data collection that really has people hating Windows 10. Not only bad defaults, but often downright impossible to turn off even when you think you have. Combine that with extremely aggressive attempts to get Win 7/8 users to upgrade. If those things weren't there, I doubt the same level of hate would be.

  11. Um, yeah, no. by roc97007 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Full disclosure: I'm not a Microsoft fan. Yes, Windows phone sales have been abysmal. We've known this for.... decades, actually. Whatever Microsoft renames or redesigns the phone, it's never done well. Microsoft doesn't appear to "get it" at a fundamental level.

    But, so far, Microsoft continues to pour money into it. And Microsoft still has a lot of money. So realistically, the Windows phone isn't dead until Microsoft says it's dead.

    The "windows phone dead" meme, like "the year of linux on the desktop" meme, is one of those wishful-thinking things that may actually be true someday. But not today.

    --
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  12. Re:If I'm going down, I'm taking you with me by hey! · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Well, this is a good point, but the real issue with Google's business model isn't collecting data your data per se -- it's that you don't get to find out what they do with it. If it were transparent it would be a simple and reasonable economic transaction: I get services from you and you get to use my information, and if I don't like how you use it I can go elsewhere for those services.

    All the arguments for the optimality and acceptability of a market economy are based on the assumption that parties to transactions have perfect -- or at least good enough -- information about conditions related to that transaction. But an entirely self-interested party (as corporations are) will if given the opportunity hide information related to a transaction when it is favorable to them. This is one of the reasons we pay more for healthcare than other countries, because our system is rigged so that you can't figure out how much a medical service costs. This starts with the largely bogus Hospital price lists (called a chargemaster), which pretty much guarantees that self-insurance is not a viable option. But if you have insurance, nobody is ever quite sure how much of what is covered by that insurance. In theory you pay your copay and that's it, but insurance companies routinely dispute bills (which is why providers make you agree to pay out of pocket), I am convinced sometimes speculating that you will pay some of the amount they ask for.

    People use "free market" to mean "unregulated", but in fact a free market that operates the way people assume a free market should requires regulation, particularly of information. I'd like the law to say Google has to give me an accounting of all the ways they've made money off my information, so I can decide whether the const in consequences to me is worth the value of their services.

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