North Korea's Satellite Tumbling In Orbit

schwit1 writes: U.S. Defense officials stated Tuesday that the satellite that North Korea launched on Sunday is now tumbling in orbit and is useless. Do not take comfort from this failure. North Korea has demonstrated that it can put payloads in orbit. From this achievement it is a very short leap to aiming those payloads to impact any continent on Earth. They might not be able to aim that impact very accurately, but if you want to ignite an atomic bomb somewhere, you don't have to be very accurate.

Comments

Let's get real

[vtcodger]

Now and for decades to come, North Korea would be very unlikely to use an ICBM/IRBM to launch a nuclear bomb. The missile might not work and neither might the payload after being subjected to the stresses of lift-off and re-entry. Assuming they wanted to blow up Washington, DC, I should think that they would simply smuggle the warhead into the US using the same routes used by smugglers to import carload lots of Cannabis then deliver it using an elderly Toyota purchased on credit . (Be a bit difficult to repossess THAT one when the payments stop).

Re:Let's get real

[MightyYar]

I don't think N. Korea can miniaturize their bombs to that degree. It's probably about 10 tons and bomb-looking as hell. A ground burst also limits the damage. The slow nature of deploying it would make it offensive only - if they were attacked it would be too late to use it. They need the opposite, something that could be launched within a few hours in response to an attack. Something that would sting just enough to make the US decide not to invade.

Actual use would mean suicide, so it's not meant to be used.

Re:Let's get real

[jeffb (2.718)]

I don't think N. Korea can miniaturize their bombs to that degree. It's probably about 10 tons and bomb-looking as hell.

If that's so, it seems to support GP's point. 10 tons is greater than the throw weight of the largest ICBM in history (8800 kg). The Taepodong-2 vehicle's payload capacity at maximum range (which would only reach the western US, btw) is estimated to be 500 kg or less.

If they want to launch it at us, they've pretty much got to get it small enough to fit in a car.

Disclaimer: this is not my field. I'm probably missing a lot of things.

Re:Let's get real

[s.petry]

I know next to nothing about nuclear or thermonuclear warheads other than that a modern thermonuclear warhead is pretty damn small. But I suspect that downsizing a bomb once you have one that works probably is not that big a deal. e.g. the US exploded its first nuclear weapon in July 1945. By 1953 the US was deploying a nuclear artillery system. I think it unlikely that the warhead for that was more than a few hundred kg. But what do I know?

That first sentence is honest, and ignorance is easily cured. "Modern" warheads owned by the US are not the same as "Modern" warheads owned by any other nation, especially the DPRK. The US spends, and has spent, massive amounts of money over a massive amount of time developing a nuclear weapons program.

Nuclear "artillery" is costly beyond belief, extremely limited in usability, only effective if there are other larger backers. It is the ultimate weapon of last resort when defending, but has almost zero use outside of that. Time to set up, maintenance of the munitions, handling of the munition, and protecting the munition are complex and costly activities. A tiny warhead mishandled or sabotaged in a base destroys the base and everyone in it.

The DPRK is once again being used for fear mongering. Fear mongering is the main reason why nobody has gone to war to end the regime. The US, UK, and everyone else in NATO loves the DPRK because "scare the populace to get what you want without revolt". China and Russia like them because the west military build up means they can justify their own investments in military power. The recent fear of the H-Bomb is just to convince people that the DPRK can now use small nukes (which it can't), and the fear mongering because of their current missiles, which are SCUD missiles, which can't even launch a tiny satellite... laughable.

Re:Let's get real

[swb]

I think in terms of total probability, the US is more likely to launch a nuclear strike on DPRK than it is to invade and fight a ground war there.

DPRK is armed to the teeth with conventional weapons and has had 60 years to dig in deep, making a conventional ground assault extremely painful. Not that the US couldn't *win* such a fight should it choose to dedicate the resources, but it would be extremely resource and manpower intensive.

And for what possible gain? No appreciable natural resources, a civilian refugee crisis of epic proportions, a diplomatic shitshow with China and Russia, both of which would use a US commitment to pursue every bit of mischief they are capable of and a price tag in the trillions. Not to mention the global economic ding from the likely destruction Seoul and the disruption to a not-insignificant part of the global supply chain.

Kim's nuclear ambitions are equally ridiculous. They're decades away from any kind of reliable and effective long-range nuclear weapons program and even when they get to the point where they have a half-assed accurate ICBM that can deliver a half-assed effective nuclear weapon, what are they going to do? Any serious *attempt* at using it or even believably threatening to use it, faces the existential threat of a US retaliation that would annihilate them, something that not even the USSR at its peak could avoid, either.

Re:Let's get real

[Martin Blank]

North Korea is more rational than most people tend to believe, but not rational to the level that, say, Iran is (and they're far more rational than people tend to believe). They do believe the world is out to get them, but they also know enough not to pull the trigger themselves unless there's no other choice--though that may include taking the nation down with them if someone tries a coup.

Absent an enlightened successor to Kim Jong-Un in about 30 years, any shift in that impoverished country is likely to be bloody, violent, and involve a lot of carnage outside its borders.

Re:Let's get real

[Jeremi]

If they want to launch it at us, they've pretty much got to get it small enough to fit in a car.

Not that it really matters anyway -- the NPRK would only launch a nuclear first strike as a form of ritual suicide. MAD still applies, even to nasty little third-world dictatorships, and launching a single nuclear missile (or even a few of them) makes no sense strategically; in a nuclear war you need to knock out your opponent's nuclear response capability or they're going to respond by nuking you to ashes in short order.

If North Korea did decide to nuke someone, they'd be much better served to smuggle the nuke aboard a ship and detonate it in a harbor somewhere; at least then they'd have some fig leaf of plausible deniability. An ICBM launch showing up on every nation's satellites/radar wouldn't leave any room for doubt at all.

Re:Let's get real

[amicusNYCL]

Man, so people in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska wouldn't be able to use electronic devices? Would anyone notice?

Re:Let's get real

[BCGlorfindel]

My point was to correct the possible perception you or anyone else has about "tiny" nukes being something the DPRK has, or would be able to use in any offensive capability. Your casual use of the technology has the potential of inflate the fear mongering, especially next statements about "nuclear or thermonuclear warheads" and lack of mention of "cost" for any of those things. The 3rd world economy of the DPRK, and tyrannical government, mean that they do not have the budge or manpower for any meaningful development of WMDs like nukes.

In your eagerness to stop the fear mongering you badly understate North Korea's capability. Sure, they can barely feed their people. 20 years ago guys like you declared the same things, that the North's economy and tyranny made scientific accomplishments like nukes and rockets impossible. Since then they've detonated nukes(plural) and launched satellites(plural again). I'm not sure where you've set the bar for 'meaningful' but the North has made succeeded in building nuclear weapons and launching rockets around the world. Refining and improving that is well within their ability, they just need the time. I can only interpret your level of meaningful to mean that they can't reasonably develop a large enough arsenal to match existing nuclear powers. Given how brutal, cruel and tyrannical the Godkings inheriting North Korea are, that's small comfort.

The reality is that if Seoul wasn't housing 10million people within range of North Korean artillery, NATO probably would have removed the Kim dynasty generations ago. All the hand wringing is watching a very nasty family growing more and more powerful while we fear the cost of their removal too much to contemplate it.

Re:Let's get real

[Blaskowicz]

The Taepodong-2 was not an ICBM. It's the space launch vehicle and Taepodong-1 was an earlier, clearly failed attempt. I believe someone made the Taepodong names up, and a decade or more ago we all assumed these were long range missiles rather than something to launch a satellite from.

True the line between space launch and ICBM seems really thin but this is really a rocket that needs weeks of launch preparation, can be fired from a single place and would only be usable as a really weak single shot, suicide first-strike.
Thus the immediate military value is zero. What works and is what US and Russia did is the other way around : you can use an ICBM for space launches.

Re:Let's get real

[KGIII]

I am not arguing with you but I do want to point out that you're assuming responsible actors. That's the same reason that a "pure" political ideology or economics model can not work. (Like pure capitalism and pure democracy or anarchy.)

Re:I have a request...

[Rei]

Is this good enough?

After all, he has the motive...

Sputnik days are here again

[petes_PoV]

it is a very short leap to aiming those payloads to impact any continent on Earth

Almost 60 years ago, americans were scared of the USSR for exactly the same reasons. Same fears, different country. Nothing changes.

Re:Sputnik days are here again

[dj245]

it is a very short leap to aiming those payloads to impact any continent on Earth

Almost 60 years ago, americans were scared of the USSR for exactly the same reasons. Same fears, different country. Nothing changes.

Yep. And unlike during the cold war, these North Korea fears are almost entirely without basis. North Korea does some odd things, but they aren't stupid or suicidal. A US invasion is a serious and genuine concern for them. They know they would be utterly devastated in any serious conflict. That's exactly why they are working on atomic bombs- to make any conflict so bad that the western powers will not attack them.

It's funny how we remember the events of history but forget the reasons why. Most nuclear weapons were constructed out of fear, not aggression. Having been to North Korea, I believe they are acting out of fear (and a bit of pride), just the same as all the other nuclear powers before them.

"you don't have to be very accurate"

[Anonymous Coward]

Really? Is the story writer a nuclear arms specialist or is this movie-knowledge?

stupid claim, schwit1

[rubycodez]

for nuclear weapons with than ten kilotons yield of course extreme accuracy is needed if targeting something a third the world a way, what a stupid thing to write. Do you get your ideas about a nuclear weapon can do from entertainment media?

Re:stupid claim, schwit1

[nicoleb_x]

Absolutely right, with humans only populating about 1% of the surface of the earth accuracy is not to be ignored.

The recent meteorite that exploded above Chelyabinsk is estimated to be a 500 kiloton equivalent and that didn't bring the region to its knees.

Re:Re-entry aiming

[Scutter]

That's one of the classic blunders. Never get involved in a land war in Asia.

CNN lol

[Anonymous Coward]

CNN is always behind....get a better source
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-orbit-idUSKCN0VI1XN

North Korea's recently launched satellite has achieved stable orbit but is not believed to have transmitted data back to Earth, U.S. sources said of a launch that has so far failed to convince experts that Pyongyang has significantly advanced its rocket technology.

Sunday's launch of what North Korea said was an earth observation satellite angered the country's neighbors and the United States, which called it a missile test. It followed Pyongyang's fourth nuclear test in January.

"It's in a stable orbit now. They got the tumbling under control," a U.S. official said on Tuesday.

"Tumbling under control"

[Anonymous Coward]

Reuters is reporting that the tumbling has stopped.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-orbit-idUSKCN0VI1XN

China is the reason NK exists

[sjbe]

At the moment, for people in the USA and Europe, NK is just an annoying abstract threat. Nobody wants to go start anything there because they could probably take out Seoul and parts of Japan quite easily, so it is better to just monitor the situation and leave them alone.

The main reason they get left alone is because of China. China protects NK even when they get completely out of pocket for reasons that are only vaguely comprehensible to us. Honestly if China wasn't involved I think NK would have been curb stomped by either the US or one of their neighbors some time ago. China props up the NK regime apparently primarily because they don't want to deal with the humanitarian crisis that would follow if the regime toppled. They also apparently don't want a unified and modern Korea with a border on China for strategic reasons.

Having said that, the guy sounds like a complete crackpot, so maybe he is just bored.

North Korea is on their third generation of crackpot absolute dictator. Hell, technically the Korean War never actually ended. There was an armistice but never an actual peace treaty.

Re:China is the reason NK exists

[mvdwege]

China protects NK even when they get completely out of pocket for reasons that are only vaguely comprehensible to us.

China prefers North Korea on its border like the United States preferred a corrupt fascist like Batista on Cuba. NK may be bastards, but they are China's bastards.

Re:dmbasso is a pedophile

[Rei]

Note to the new owners of Slashdot: this here conversation is precisely the sort of rare case where you should actually get involved (where the person or people involved don't care if they get modded down to zero and will just keep popping back up with more angry, offtopic rants in whatever thread they feel like)

Re:How do we tolerate this?

[gtall]

Easy, no one wants to feed the S. Koreans into a very nasty war which the little sawed off runt of the Norks might just start. S. Korea would eventually win, but before that happens, China will jump in to defend The Runt and any suggestion that China would allow a competent country on their borders making China's toy dictatorship look precarious.

So, in true Western fashion, the can is kicked down the road a bit further in the hopes that the can will spontaneously fail to exist at some point whereupon the problem could be declared solved and Victory with Honor promoted throughout the halls of the U.N.

No Longer Tumbling

[bengoerz]

According to multiple sources, the satellite is no longer tumbling.

Its not the actual bomb, its the threat

[clifwlkr]

I really, really doubt the leaders actually think it is worth dropping a single missile or two on the US, and expect that there would not be massive retaliation literally destroying their country. The US would not sit back after any kind of attack and reconsider, it would be full speed ahead.

Instead, what they want is the threat that they could let loose with several missiles if we were to invade them, and it would be difficult to stop them once in the air. That scares the US populace, and makes them think twice about coming and attacking them on the first place. That is why they make such a big show of it all, to make sure we know they have a weapon they could use against us. That, after all, is really the whole premise of nuclear weapons at this point.

Re:Its not the actual bomb, its the threat

[petes_PoV]

massive retaliation literally destroying their country

I assume you don't actually know where NK is. Look on a map. Bejing is less than 500miles away. NK shares a border with China. Japan is very close, too. There is no possibility that China would allow the USA to nuke one of its neighbours - not with the possibility of fallout spreading across the region.

Luckily, your fears are completely unfounded. NK doesn't give a flying *** about the USA. It is more concerned with South Korea and if it was to use a nuke, they already have a target painted large as Seoul is only 30 miles from the NK border - easily reachable by truck in less than an hour. That is their hostage, should anyone attack them. What is far more likely is that they are developing the technology to sell. The launches are just advertising for their capabilities and the people you should be worried about are the ones who hate you and have lots of money. Sadly, that list is quite long: just look at all the countries you've bombed back to the stone age in the past few decades.

If a warhead tumbles, it is useless

[Geoffrey.landis]

If a nuclear missile tumbles after launch, it won't survive entry.

Stabilizing your payload is not optional for nuclear weapons, it's mandatory.

So in other words...

[damn_registrars]

If we take this claim together with the claim that the satellite passed over Levi's Stadium just after the Super Bowl ended, the North Koreans are close to accomplishing Rudy Giuliani's goal of nuking Beyonce.

Re:How do we tolerate this?

[dwillden]

We justify it by the fact that NK has so much artillery aimed at Seoul SK, that if we ever start anything millions will die in a matter of minutes. It's a pretty effective barrier to any offensive actions by the US or the ROK.

Re:Deja Vuuuuuuuuuu

[Notorious G]

You bomb us, we bomb you, we're hurt but you cease to exist. No two-bit dictator is that crazy.

What you really mean is that you *hope* no two-bit dictator is crazy enough to think we will not retaliate and that you hope there is someone that is believably willing to retaliate. Good luck with that.

Re:How do we tolerate this?

[bobbied]

Kicking the NK can down the road is likely the best option for all involved.

I don't see how beyond economic sanctions there is much more we can do. We SERIOUSLY don't want or need to deal with NK militarily. There is no point in rekindling the Korean war and turn this thing into direct combat again where a bunch of people die on both sides and nothing really changes.

What needs to happen here is the North Koreans need to revolt and overthrow the Kim government on their own, which will eventually happen if we let it go on long enough. So, we may keep kicking the can, but I see it as keeping watch, waiting for the people of North Korea to take care of this in their own time and in their own way, preserving the lives of our military by not feeding the little Un's propaganda machine.

BTW... This coming from a "Take no nonsense, kick the (blank) out of ISIS" kind of guy...Some stones are seriously best left unthrown...

Re:Heavy???

[bobbied]

I know Lit'l Un seems crazy to us, but I assure you he's not. If you understand a bit of Korean culture and how the Kim's came to power and keep it, it's pretty clear that he knows what he's doing. It's also clear that despite his repeated taunts and minor infractions of the cease fire, he's not that interested in a full frontal assault with anybody because it won't keep him in power to do so. He needs to keep inventing ways to feed the propaganda machine moral and tactical victories (real or invented) but he clearly cannot afford ANY losses in the process. So, he's not crazy, he just has to preserve appearances to stay in power.

Now where things will really get crazy is when he realizes that he's lost his grip. THEN he will be desperate to find ANY way to demonstrate his power. However, if it comes to that, I'm betting he will be dead before he realizes the game is over..

Re:dmbasso is a pedophile

[thegarbz]

Involved in what way? The people are modded down and I wouldn't have even seen the post if it weren't for curiosity on what you were talking about.

How would a policy of censorship or content deletion improve this situation without causing a negative issue at the same time? Lot of things on Slashdot could be changed for the better but quite frankly the moderation and lack of censorship have withstood the test of time.